The Ukraine War thread

[Which Tyler]

Someone made a good point that doing this means that rather than just Russia grabbing land and any peace involves them keeping it, any ceasing of hostilities at the moment would involve Russia actually giving up some of their territory as well.

There's that.
There's simply sending a message (both to Russia and to Allies) that the Ukrainian army is still a force, and still needs help.
There's an element of distraction, hoping that Russia would send troops there from Ukraine to sort the issue, creating an exploitable weakness in the Russian lines in Ukraine.
There's even the possibility that it's a bit of Russia (the closest bit to Kyiv) that's relatively hard for Russia to reinforce, is important for Russia's rail connections into Ukraine, and is suitable to use heavier equipment like Tanks, that the lines in Ukraine are ill-suited for. IF the plan is to take and hold, it also straightens the line of defence where Russia bubbles into Ukraine a bit. Further, it's showing actual Russians that the Ukrainian military aren't these satanic Nazis they've been portrayed as (and from the sounds of things, actively better for the Russian on the street than the previous Russian army had been).

Of course ,the real reason will be partly all of the above, and plenty of other reasons in both the risk and benefit columns, adding up to making it worth a shot.

 

[McTallshort]

Someone made a good point that doing this means that rather than just Russia grabbing land and any peace involves them keeping it, any ceasing of hostilities at the moment would involve Russia actually giving up some of their territory as well.

If anything it's thrust the war back into the headlines after an almost complete media black out flowing the events in Gaza which for some reason grabbed all the headlines.

I'm still holding my judgement on this. There are lots of western experts who offer opinions without understanding the Ukrainian political or cultural needs of fighting this war.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

I don't think Ukraine are looking try hold the land until an eventual peace agreement. Most likely these are pseudo guerrilla tactics, they have identified they could cause maximum damage with their forces by striking here compared to having them in a meat grinder.

I think once Russia redeploys here and gets to turn it into another meat grinder, Ukraine will just try to make it cost them as much as possible but will retreat. The issue is when they retreat, they need to make sure they keep their forces in that border to ensure the Russians then don't just continue advancing into Ukraine.

 

[General Melchett]

If nothing else it's a morale boost to those still fighting in Ukraine and another red face for Mr Security who seems better at keeping himself secure than his people and borders. Prigozhin exposing him last year showed major vulnerabilities which perhaps gave Ukraine something to feed off. No doubt the local propaganda machine will be cranked up to play it all down coupled with more empty threats against the west.

If this ceasefire deal can be agreed in Gaza then that'll be a big boost to Ukraine as it puts their needs back at the forefront.

 

[McTallshort]

 

[Amiga500]

I'd say its not an absurd exaggeration to say this war is likely to see the first completely autonomous killing of a human combatant by an AI guided robot.

Various developments in the area include armed robodogs, machine gun totting buggies and of course, the well known UAVs - all it needs is offboard image recognition and we're at robot vs robot territory.

 

[McTallshort]

UK citizen dies in Ukraine hotel strike where Reuters team stayed

Ryan Evans, who was part of a Reuters news team, was killed in Kramatorsk in a strike on a hotel on Saturday.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[McTallshort]

David Lammy: Ukraine missile request under discussion

Ukraine has been pleading for months for restrictions on using missiles on targets inside Russia to be lifted.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's this kind of stuff that does grate on me.

If they are in discussions to use longer range weapons in Russia then don't advertise the fact. The Russians have already moved their key asset's out of ATACMs range. Wouldn't it have been better to keep it on the QT and then smoke a load of Russian air bases?

This happened with the offensive last year. There was endless discussion about what the Ukrainians would do, where would they attack, when would they attack, leaks for the Americans etc and when the Ukrainians did attack they Russians were able to stop them relatively easily.

Give the Ukrainians what they need and let them get on with it.

 

[Amiga500]

It's this kind of stuff that does grate on me.

Operational security meet blowhards that need their face on the paper or news.

Is it really so hard to say something along the lines of:

"At first we talked briefly about the weather. Then we moved onto things I'll let you know the topic of, when its appropriate to let you know the topic. The outcome of the talk will be self-explanatory at that point."

Or the more formal.

"Operational security prevents me from telling you what we talked about never mind the outcome of the talks. In due course, we'll issue updates."

 

[McTallshort]

North Korea deploys troops to fight with Russia: Seoul

The first 1,500 troops arrive in Russia ahead of going to Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said.

www.bbc.com

Well that's a suprise....not

 

[Which Tyler]

North Korea deploys troops to fight with Russia: Seoul

The first 1,500 troops arrive in Russia ahead of going to Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said.

www.bbc.com

Well that's a suprise....not

Which semi-expected to result in South Korea opening up their arsenal to Ukraine...

 

[McTallshort]

Which semi-expected to result in South Korea opening up their arsenal to Ukraine...

Fingers crossed!

 

[Amiga500]

North Korea deploys troops to fight with Russia: Seoul

The first 1,500 troops arrive in Russia ahead of going to Ukraine, South Korea's spy agency has said.

www.bbc.com

Well that's a suprise....not

I seen an article talking about multiple deserters already.

How true it is, I've no idea.

But I'd imagine it must be very enticing.

You'd think it would be an obvious weak-point for Ukrainian propaganda / psychological operations to target. "Surrender and we'll feed you (much) more than 7 grains of rice a day..."

 

[McTallshort]

BAE Systems: Fire at Barrow's nuclear submarine shipyard

Police say there is "no nuclear risk" and everyone inside had been accounted for.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Which Tyler]

From the Kiel Institute, and focussed on Germany's contributions to the war in Ukraine

Germany benefits from war: Russia's victory will cost more than helping Kiev — IFW Kiel: EADaily

EADaily, November 3rd, 2024. The current support for Ukraine is insignificant compared to what a possible Russian victory in an aggressive war against Ukraine will cost Germany. This is stated in the analytical note of the Kiel Institute of World Economy (IFW Kiel).

eadaily.com

Currently, the war has cost Germany around 0.1% of GDP (annually), in donations, coping with refugees etc. (I don't know if oil price inflation is included here - or how relevant it would be for the next statement)
They estimate that that could rise to 1.0-2.0% (annually) if Putin wins, in terms of ramping up military spending domestically, and coping with further waves of refugees.

Presumably, the numbers for this are greater for countries like Poland, Romania, Slovakia etc


Also looks like Maldova have annoyed Putin by voting for closer links to the EU, and keeping Maya Sandu as president.
Hopefully not the only time Putin is annoyed about a presidential election this week!