The Race for higher World Cup seedings

[Seaton]

Alright, so at the end of the year the official IRB rankings will be used to determine how the teams will be seeded at the 2015 Rugby World Cup in Englandshire and possibly Welshville.

I couldn't be bothered (as in I don't know how) to make a table, so here are the current world rankings for your perusal:

http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

Now, every team wants to be ranked as high as possible to avoid as many big teams as possible, in addition to wanting to win all your matches. Although some teams seem non-chalant about such things *cough* Scotland *cough*

So, your thoughts on others and your teams performance and which pot you think they will end up in. (For the dummies, there will be five pots, pot one, pot two, etc... Countries ranked 1-4 will be in pot one, 5-8 in pot two, 9-12 in three, 13-16 in four and 17-20 in five. Of course only 12 teams automatically qualify... [ZOMG MINDF**K!!! YASS YASSS YAAASSSSSSSSSS!!!!], so 8 will qualify through various rounds and play-offs or so)

Now, the MINDF**k comes in because I was sh*tscared that Scotland will be in pot four, but just remembered that Canada didn't automatically qualify for 2015, thus I don't have to worry about them beating the US, weakened Georgia and possibly Italy in the summer tours. In fact I welcome it (not that I didn't before).

So, the whole point of me doing this has now become irrelevant, but I am sure others might express their feelings as to what chance and where they think their, or other, team(s) might end up in the rankings.

 

[LittleGuy]

Since the rankings aren't relevant for the non-automatically qualifying teams. The other bands will probably be made up of something like this.

Band 4. America's #1, Europe #1, Oceania and Asia. This will probably = Canada(USA has a chance at an upset though), Georgia(slight chance to Romania and Russia), Fiji and Japan

Band 5. America's #2, Europe #2, Africa(or possible repechage spot depending on what the IRB chooses to do) and Repechage. This band will probably be = USA. Russia or Romania(possibly even Portugal) and here is where things get dicey if Africa retains there spot than Namibia are probably heavy favourites. If it switches to a second repechage spot than Romania, Portugal, Uruguay and even Spain's routes for qualifying get much easier.

I'd rather see the automatic Africa spot become another Repechage spot, we still might see Namibia qualify but they'll have to earn it a little more, the other issue I have is that Japan's route to the RWC is exceedingly easy with only Hong Kong even having the most remote chance of beating them in qualifying, but I can't see this changing since Japan are going to host the 2019 RWC having them potentially out of 2015 would be a disaster.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

When England cruise to the Grandslam we could potentially be 3rd.

Nice...Nice.

 

[Saintjay]

I might get tickets for the All Blacks V Nambia at Old Trafford if all goes to plan .

 

[Bail]

Again, all the teams involved in the race don't have the same chances. Samoa and Tonga will play less matches than the other 10.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

Again, all the teams involved in the race don't have the same chances. Samoa and Tonga will play less matches than the other 10.

Will this benefit them or hinder them, I wonder? They've got less chance to lose and drop down, but also have less chance to climb and try and solidify their position.

Here's a question: is there any way New Zealand (Or Australia, if winning gives them automatic qualification) could not qualify automatically for 2015? If they lost every single game they're playing between now and the draw, would that be enough?

 

[Me 1]

Will this benefit them or hinder them, I wonder? They've got less chance to lose and drop down, but also have less chance to climb and try and solidify their position.

Here's a question: is there any way New Zealand (Or Australia, if winning gives them automatic qualification) could not qualify automatically for 2015? If they lost every single game they're playing between now and the draw, would that be enough?

No, it depends on standings at the world cup for automatic qualification i.e third or higher in the pool, the rankings just effect which pot your in.

 

[Melhor Time]

Bands according to alph. order not rankings.

Band one - Australia, New Zealand, France, Wales

Band two - Argentina, England, Ireland, South Africa

Band three - Italy, Samoa, Scotland, Tonga

Draw Prediction

Pool A - France, South Africa, Italy, Europe 2 (Russia), Americas 2 (USA)

Pool B - Australia, England, Tonga, Europe 1 (Georgia), Asia 1 (Japan)

Pool C - New Zealand, Argentina, Samoa, Americas 1 (Canada), Repercharge (Spain - not Romania)

Pool D - Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Oceania 1 (Fiji), Africa 1 (Namibia)

Explanation - South Africa has many young players and has lost many experienced players to retirement or they are not what they used to be. I am picking them to lose in Mendoza vs Argentina and to also lose in Europe in November.

Wales are three points behind South Africa and very close to England. I´d pick them to dinsh second, behind France in the Six Nations and, as such, maybe go up into the Top 4 before June. I predict Wales to have a good home series in November which will overpower any losses the team may suffer this June.

Scotland are to benefit from facing all of Samoa, Fiji and Tonga and should win the matches. However, at five points behind Argentina and over four behind Ireland it would be enough. Scotland will get the Six Nations wooden spoon and lose at home in November.

Italy will defeat Scotland in the 6N and defeat Canada and the USA in June. Canada are ranked very close to Italy which means Italy will actually shoot up the rankings - probably ahead of all of Scotland, Tonga and Samoa. As such Tonga and Samoa have little to no chance of rising.

Argentina are to host France and Italy n June and should win all three matches. Los Pumas will eb formiddable at home and could beat any of their opponents in The Rugby Championship. I´d say a wein over South Africa is on the cards and one vs Australia, right now is a 55% chance. VS New Zealand its less likely but I would still say its more than 40%. The November tour will be crucial. Argentina should be significantly better than in other European Autumn´s as the team will have had a full international season together. They could go all the way. If so Argentina wil finish in the Top 4. My pick is Argentina will finish 6th.

New Zealand, Australia and France to remain in the top 4. I think all teams will win all their home matches this year. France will not lose a match in the Six Nations and will have a great November home series.

England are looking ready for a smashing at the hands of France. Ireland and Wales both look better too. I can´t see anything changing in June or November with England to lose its matches. As such, England will be ranked 8th.

Ireland to suffer in June and lose every match. Wins over Italy, England and Scotland in the Six Nations will be overshadowed by losses vs Wales and France.

 

[Seaton]

Bands according to alph. order not rankings.

Band one - Australia, New Zealand, France, Wales

Band two - Argentina, England, Ireland, South Africa

Band three - Italy, Samoa, Scotland, Tonga.

Come again? Might I ask when it changed? :?

As for predicting a random draw, that's silly.

Even for you

 

[Melhor Time]

Come again? Might I ask when it changed? :?

As for predicting a random draw, that's silly.

Even for you

When what changed?

The draw is done by ranking the 12 qualified teams from 1-12 then putting them in three bands of four. i..e teams ranked 1-4, 5-8 and 9-12. Thus, being fourth is as good as being first.

It can give good results and make it harder for others. i.e. Tonga and Scotland were in the band ranked 9-12 and this put Scotland with two tier one sides and Tonga with two other tier one sides. But, because Tonga are not a tier one side it meant France and New Zealand were advantaged over Argentina and England.

I think predicting a draw is a interesting for a few reasons. Lets say that the Pool D teams turn out to be Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Oceania 1 (Fiji) and Africa 1 (Namibia). This would mean Wales could not play at the Millenium Stadium. Scotland and Ireland would cry foul and have reason. Oceania 1 would too. Therefore, would Cardiff be used at all? Would Australia vs England therefore be appropriate? To me, it just underlines how stupid it would be to have matches in England 2015 played in the Valley´s. The draw also gives scenarios. The three Celts all together. One guaranteed to miss the Quarter´s.

I live for this stuff.

 

[Seaton]

When what changed?

Did you not say your bands were in alphabetical order?

When did N come before F?

But I'm still lost on the draw, bit. Yeah I can see how it could be fun imagining pools and scenarios, but predicting... isn't the right word. I mean it's a random draw, yi ken?

 

[Me 1]

To me, it just underlines how stupid it would be to have matches in England 2015 played in the Valley´s.

Just to be pedantic, Cardiff is not in the Valley's

 

[Draggs]

Watch out Melhor. You're going to have the Pontypridd hordes after you now, gunning for regional reform.

 

[Melhor Time]

Watch out Melhor. You're going to have the Pontypridd hordes after you now, gunning for regional reform.

I have a great friend from there who helped me when I was in College. He likes the Ospreys but obly because he has to. He hates what the WRU have done.

Just to be pedantic, Cardiff is not in the Valley's

True.....

Did you not say your bands were in alphabetical order?

When did N come before F?

But I'm still lost on the draw, bit. Yeah I can see how it could be fun imagining pools and scenarios, but predicting... isn't the right word. I mean it's a random draw, yi ken?

Partly random. Its based on a prediction of where each of the 12 automatic qualifying teams will be ranked come December 2012. I think the top four will be Australia, New Zealand, France and Wales (not nec. in this order) and then Arg, Irl, Eng and RSA ranked 5-8 and Ita, Sco, Sam and Ton in the third bracket. So the possibilities are narrower than if it were a random draw.

 

[LittleGuy]

Before the draw late in the year we should have a TRF prediction thread on what the pools will be like, could be some extremely fun light hearted stuff.

 

[Seaton]

Before the draw late in the year we should have a TRF prediction thread on what the pools will be like, could be some extremely fun light hearted stuff.

I have an idea.

Look at the current world rankings. If the first 50 were put into a hat, predict which five names would be taken out. (randomly)

Then take the countries ranked 51-62 and predict which 2 would come out of a hat.

 

[LittleGuy]

I have an idea.

Look at the current world rankings. If the first 50 were put into a hat, predict which five names would be taken out. (randomly)

Then take the countries ranked 51-62 and predict which 2 would come out of a hat.

Late in the year we will know the seedings of the Top 12 and possibly what bands the qualifiers wil be in so it's not completely random.

It's also a nonsensical and fun thing that I think many members(especially casual ones) would participate in. It will also be intruiging to look at the various posiblities that forum members here will come up with for how the pools will shape up.

 

[Seaton]

Late in the year we will know the seedings of the Top 12 and possibly what bands the qualifiers wil be in so it's not completely random as for some reason you keep insisting.

It's also a nonsensical and fun thing that I think many members(especially casual ones) would participate in. It will also be intruiging to look at the various posiblities that forum members here will come up with for how the pools will shape up. If you don't like the idea or don't wish to participate than don't.

I was trying to get to get you to pick lottery numbers.

You're taking me in the wrong way, by all means I would read the discussion with regards to your selections and how you think the pools that you 'predicted' would pan out. I'm just saying that there are (by very rudimentary and probably incorrect probability calculations) possibly over 960 possible scenarios to go through, as you may have noted I am aware of how the draw is made.

I doubt you have That much time.

And you negged me!

 

[LittleGuy]

I was trying to get to get you to pick lottery numbers.

You're taking me in the wrong way, by all means I would read the discussion with regards to your selections and how you think the pools that you 'predicted' would pan out. I'm just saying that there are (by very rudimentary and probably incorrect probability calculations) possibly over 960 possible scenarios to go through, as you may have noted I am aware of how the draw is made.

I doubt you have That much time.

And you negged me!

Sorry LordHope I really thought you were calling me an idiot(though thinly veiled) for suggesting the idea. I should have sent you a PM in order to clarify your thoughts, I jumped the gun and I apologise for that. Can I remove the negging somehow?

Edit: Left you some positive rep looks like I'll owe you a bit to make up for it since I can't seem to find a way to remove the neg.

 

[Seaton]

Sorry LordHope I really thought you were calling me an idiot(though thinly veiled) for suggesting the idea. I should have sent you a PM in order to clarify your thoughts, and I jumped the gun and I apologise for that. Can I remove the negging somehow?

No worries dude, I should have expected that those unfamiliar with the Euro system (as I myself am) and wouldn't pick up on it.

Otherwise I can see how I might have come across as a male appendage :lol: