The Lions squad for 2021 prediction

[Welsh Exile]

So if they're both well committed defenders than you're looking at tackle technique more so?

Reading of the game is tougher to judge, and tackles missed stats arent everything, ie if Tipuric misses more tackles than Curry, but its because he's hiding on the wing and left all alone, one v one against Kolbe... thats just rough
Either way I wouldnt question either of these two defensively, despite the stats I posted above re Williams. But my Goodness, do you not get excited when Hogg hits that 13 channel at pace?

I remember seeing it 3/4 years ago v All blacks, when Scotland went the length of the field and Hogg just got tackled into touch by Barrett I think 3 yards short... but he made 3 line breaks in a row or something stupid

Yeah for sure, he gets you off your seat. He's that kind of player. Though I do think back to that SOB try against NZ last tour with Williams starting the move off from deep. But yeah I think Hogg edges him here, especially now.

I guess what I'm saying is, focussing on the defence, that while Hogg is a committed tackler Liam Williams is next level and that quality is extra important against South Africa. SOB sums it up well (though he's obviously referring to Williams ball in hand but principle is the same)


"I remember in the last game I played against Wales, they did a short line-out off the tail,
Rather than try to run around me, Liam Williams ran straight at me.

I swear to god, it was like running into a brick wall. He absolutely dazzled me. I was, like, what am I hitting here?

He's one of the toughest players in rugby – fact. And he's all bone as well.

He actually ran over the top of me, and I was holding his legs and, like, what's hitting me here?"

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

This is my revised Gatland team, meaning the team I think Gatland will pick. Feel free to destroy this post though:

1 Owens
2 George
3 Furlong
4 Itoje
5 AWJ
6 Lawes/ Bearnie
7 Curry
8 Falateu
9 Murray
10 Biggar
11 Adam's
12 Farrell
13 Aki
14 Watson
15 Williams

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Owens at loosehead?

 

[Welsh Exile]

I can't see Gats leaving Henshaw out, not with Farrell in poor form. Wouldn't rule it out as Gats likes him and his form can change but I think the midfield will be Henshaw and Aki/Harris. Other than that I don't think that's far off, other than Owens at LH, obviously.

 

[Groundhog]

Bearnie

Uh oh this is gonna cost ya big time

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Meant Jones at LH but Owens, typo there sorry all.

No apologies for spelling Bearnie wrong. Any player that makes me type and then re type their name after auto correct changes it, deserves whatever autocorrect they get!

 

[Groundhog]

Meant Jones at LH but Owens, typo there sorry all.

No apologies for spelling Bearnie wrong. Any player that makes me type and then re type their name after auto correct changes it, deserves whatever autocorrect they get!

To be fair if the man had any decency he would just be called Byrne.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I can't see Gats leaving Henshaw out, not with Farrell in poor form. Wouldn't rule it out as Gats likes him and his form can change but I think the midfield will be Henshaw and Aki/Harris. Other than that I don't think that's far off, other than Owens at LH, obviously.

In my head it was Aki and Henshaw but as I was typing I thought Gatland wants to move SA around and I bet he'll want a inside like Farrell. Then (maybe incorrectly) I thought he would like a big 13 to go with Farrell and Aki (who I was surprised was even in the squad) must be there for a reason and I think that reason is to replicate the Farrell Manu midfield.

I might be well off but that's my Gatlandesque thoughts.

 

[Welsh Exile]

In my head it was Aki and Henshaw but as I was typing I thought Gatland wants to move SA around and I bet he'll want a inside like Farrell. Then (maybe incorrectly) I thought he would like a big 13 to go with Farrell and Aki (who I was surprised was even in the squad) must be there for a reason and I think that reason is to replicate the Farrell Manu midfield.

I might be well off but that's my Gatlandesque thoughts.

You could well be right. That position probably isn't nailed down for Gats yet but you could argue, other than TH and 8, no position is really nailed down yet.

He might've watched those South Africans slating us and calling Hamish Watson a hobbit and decide to play him at 12.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I tell you what would keep them off guard. Beirne at 12 Tipuric at 13. I actually reckon they'd be pretty handy.

 

[LIONSxv]

I'm struggling to see how so many posters or pundits have a Welsh majority in their tight 5. It's been the weakest part of the Welsh team since Jones, Jenkins et el retired. The Welsh set piece is at best average.
Wales strength is in the back row and backs albeit to a lesser extent

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

I'm struggling to see how so many posters or pundits have a Welsh majority in their tight 5. It's been the weakest part of the Welsh team since Jones, Jenkins et el retired. The Welsh set piece is at best average.
Wales strength is in the back row and backs albeit to a lesser extent

8 players, Gatland will Falateu at 8 who is by far the best option there.
At lock I'm guessing AWJ will start, there are arguments for other options but for leadership Gatland will have him there.
Jones at LH as he is the best LH option in the squad.

Those three are definitely going to be there or there abouts. That's 3 out of 8 as a starting point. I can't see Justin T starting over Curry or Watson so there's no other welsh forwards in the back or second row. Then it's a shootout between George, LCD and Owens. I think Owens will lose out to one of the English hookers so you have 3/8 and I can't really see it being more than that.

 

[Welsh Exile]

I'm struggling to see how so many posters or pundits have a Welsh majority in their tight 5. It's been the weakest part of the Welsh team since Jones, Jenkins et el retired. The Welsh set piece is at best average.
Wales strength is in the back row and backs albeit to a lesser extent

I agree that's it's not our biggest strength but I guess Wyn Jones and Owens have been in decent form as has AWJ but he's captain as well. I could definitely see Gatland going with either George or LCD, though. Hooker isn't nailed down at all and all 3 have a genuine chance to be test starter, IMO. Don't think Gatland will see it any different either. He much preferred George to Owens last tour and I think he'll really like LCD (obviously as he wouldn't of toured but you know what I mean)

 

[LIONSxv]

8 players, Gatland will Falateu at 8 who is by far the best option there.
At lock I'm guessing AWJ will start, there are arguments for other options but for leadership Gatland will have him there.
Jones at LH as he is the best LH option in the squad.

Those three are definitely going to be there or there abouts. That's 3 out of 8 as a starting point. I can't see Justin T starting over Curry or Watson so there's no other welsh forwards in the back or second row. Then it's a shootout between George, LCD and Owens. I think Owens will lose out to one of the English hookers so you have 3/8 and I can't really see it being more than that.

Jones is the best LH ..based on what ? The two best scrummaging LH are back home in Marler and Healy. The best on tour by some distance is Sutherland. Jones is the best we have over the ball, however is light by modern day standards.
You lost me a bit when started talking about Curry and Tipuric as neither play in the tight 5

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

Jones is the best LH ..based on what ? The two best scrummaging LH are back home in Marler and Healy. The best on tour by some distance is Sutherland. Jones is the best we have over the ball, however is light by modern day standards.
You lost me a bit when started talking about Curry and Tipuric as neither play in the tight 5

Best all round loose head on tour I meant. It's not all about scrummaging but from the 6 nations Jones seemed all round best to me out the 3 that toured.

As for Curry etc they are in the forwards who should be in the same discussion when discussing the right 5. You can't say forwards have done well or not without looking at the balance of the back row with the second row. Lighter locks, bigger flanks etc.

 

[LIONSxv]

Best all round loose head on tour I meant. It's not all about scrummaging but from the 6 nations Jones seemed all round best to me out the 3 that toured.

As for Curry etc they are in the forwards who should be in the same discussion when discussing the right 5. You can't say forwards have done well or not without looking at the balance of the back row with the second row. Lighter locks, bigger flanks etc.

The best all round LH by a mile on ability is mako. Better in the loose, better work rate, best hands, strong. However he shouldn't even be on the tour Imo due to his lack of scrummaging form.
I find this almost cult status of Wyn Jones intriguing. At best Wales scrum held its own in last 6 nations. The past two seasons it was going backwards and ceeding penalties. The Irish , Scots and English have better scrums and in the case of the latter better line outs. I get the loyality and bigging up of our own nation players. However the set piece has been an area of weakness for the Welsh for some years. Thus it makes no sense to fill it with Welshmen.
Much the same as 9&10 are areas of weakness for the English. It's the equivalent of starting Young's and Farrel for the lions

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

The best all round LH by a mile on ability is mako. Better in the loose, better work rate, best hands, strong. However he shouldn't even be on the tour Imo due to his lack of scrummaging form.
I find this almost cult status of Wyn Jones intriguing. At best Wales scrum held its own in last 6 nations. The past two seasons it was going backwards and ceeding penalties. The Irish , Scots and English have better scrums and in the case of the latter better line outs. I get the loyality and bigging up of our own nation players. However the set piece has been an area of weakness for the Welsh for some years. Thus it makes no sense to fill it with Welshmen.
Much the same as 9&10 are areas of weakness for the English. It's the equivalent of starting Young's and Farrel for the lions

Mako was by no way the best all round loose head in the 6 nations. Pick another player other than Jones all you like but Makos performance across the board (which includes scrummaging) wasn't great in my opinion.

It's ok if you don't rate him at LH though, I have no loyalty to him being English but thought he did well. I'm fine we disagree on it because watching players is subjective and we do all focus on different things.

Who would be in your starting pack then?

Edit:

I just went back to look at the WC final to see what the pack was and Mako had Lawes behind him which didn't help with Cole at TH which also wouldn't of helped (sorry tigers fan).

Anyone remember how we faired at scrum time after half time, as we had Marler and Kruis on for Mako and Lawes.

 

[LIONSxv]

What is the absolute obsession with the last 6 nations ? It would appear looking at some postings that the form of players over a handful of games is the only criteria to a) be a good rugby player b) be in with a shout of the lions selection. Surely actual ability is just as important
Mako is by far and away a better rugby player than Wyn Jones.
However as you are looking at selection based on the very narrow prism of the last six nations alone. You wouldn't see or acknowledge this. Wyn Jones is a better scummager and had a great six nations. Mako was poor. Sutherland on the other hand has played constantly well for 3 seasons in a scrum setup that is better than its Welsh counterpart.
For me we left better LH back home.
As for starting pack I'd have Marler or Sutherland LH, LCD, Furlong,Ryan, Itoje, beirne,curry, faleteau

 

[Welsh Exile]

What is the absolute obsession with the last 6 nations ? It would appear looking at some postings that the form of players over a handful of games is the only criteria to a) be a good rugby player b) be in with a shout of the lions selection. Surely actual ability is just as important
Mako is by far and away a better rugby player than Wyn Jones.
However as you are looking at selection based on the very narrow prism of the last six nations alone. You wouldn't see or acknowledge this. Wyn Jones is a better scummager and had a great six nations. Mako was poor. Sutherland on the other hand has played constantly well for 3 seasons in a scrum setup that is better than its Welsh counterpart.
For me we left better LH back home.
As for starting pack I'd have Marler or Sutherland LH, LCD, Furlong,Ryan, Itoje, beirne,curry, faleteau

I think it's a mixture of stuff that goes into these decisions, I'd imagine. You've got players who have been selected who aren't in great form (like Mako) but have been selected because they've still got credit in the Gatland bank. Same with George and Farrell. So Gatland clearly isn't going purely on form as he'll no doubt back these players to rediscover some form.

Having said that recent from is clearly a really important factor as well. There's no substitute for fit, healthy players playing well in recent international competitions. It's not the be all and end all but it will count for a lot. The scrum was good against SA in the semi final if I recall correctly and Wyn Jones was starting in that game. Put that together with a very solid 6N (both in the tight and the loose) and that's probably why a lot of people think he'll be first choice for Gatland. Don't think it's nailed on either. There not point talking about Marler and stuff as he's not going and to be honest I wouldn't of taken him either with all the stuff he's been going through off the pitch in recent years.

 

[Don't Skip Leg Day]

What is the absolute obsession with the last 6 nations ? It would appear looking at some postings that the form of players over a handful of games is the only criteria to a) be a good rugby player b) be in with a shout of the lions selection. Surely actual ability is just as important
Mako is by far and away a better rugby player than Wyn Jones.
However as you are looking at selection based on the very narrow prism of the last six nations alone. You wouldn't see or acknowledge this. Wyn Jones is a better scummager and had a great six nations. Mako was poor. Sutherland on the other hand has played constantly well for 3 seasons in a scrum setup that is better than its Welsh counterpart.
For me we left better LH back home.
As for starting pack I'd have Marler or Sutherland LH, LCD, Furlong,Ryan, Itoje, beirne,curry, faleteau

I don't really know what to say to that, Mako has been on a downward form from the WC and with sarries in the championship it's the last set of games he's played at a high level.

Are you saying you'd ignore form? The lions should be players in top form not poor form and while I agree that Mako on top form is great, he has always struggled in the scrum. My selections are based on who's in the lions squad, so I wouldn't have selected Marler or Healey etc