Super 15 Play Off QF: Blues - Waratahs @ Eden Park (24-06-2011)

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Eden Park, Auckland (24-06-2011, 08:35 GMT)

The Blues host an injury hit Waratahs team on Friday at Eden Park and the winner will book a place in the Semi-finals against either the Reds or the Stormers. As the Blues are the favourites due to home advantage and fewer injuries they are favourites to play the Stormers in Cape Town. The Blues do however go into the match on the back of some mixed results as they ended a four match losing streak against the Highlanders last week.

Daniel Braid could make his return to the Blues line up in their Super Rugby knockout play off against the Waratahs in Auckland on Friday at Eden Park. Blues coach Pat Lam can finally call on Braid who has been on the sidelines for the last 14 weeks with neck and hamstring injuries. However while Braid is fit and ready to play Lam is unlikely to move his younger brother Luke from the No 7 jersey due to his form.

Lam has a lot of respect for the Waratahs who the Blues beat 31-17 at Eden Park in Round Nine but adds that he feels they are a better side now. With a strong, tight defence, the Waratahs will prove to be a real challenge for the Auckland franchise.

The Waratahs have named a 24-man squad for their Super Rugby Qualifier with the Blues on Friday at Eden Park in Auckland. The touring party is scheduled to arrive in Auckland on Tuesday night with their flight not expected to be affected by the ash cloud which has grounded some flights out of Sydney. The squad is without Tatafu Polota-Nau, Daniel Halangahu and Al Baxter who were all ruled out with injuries suffered in Saturday's 41-7 victory over the Brumbies at ANZ Stadium.

The Waratahs ***le hopes however, have suffered a blow as half-back Luke Burgess broke his hand in training taking their injury list to 12 regular Waratahs squad members who won't be playing at Eden Park. Burgess has most likely played his last game for the Waratahs which means that coach Chris Hickey will have to decide between handing a Super Rugby debut to club players Bernard Foley and Elvis Taione in the Waratahs biggest game of the season. The Waratahs already knew they would have to face the Blues without international stars Berrick Barnes, Drew Mitchell, Wycliff Palu, Sekope Kepu, Rob Horne, and regular team members Ben Mowen, Pat McCutcheon and Damien Fitzpatrick and the earlier mentioned Tatafu Polota-Nau, Daniel Halangahu and Al Baxter.

Kurtley Beale will move from fullback to five-eighth and Australian Sevens captain Bernard Foley is thought to be Beale's back up but Hickey wouldn't confirm this. John Ulugia is expected to start at Hooker and Elvis Taione who was plucked from the Manly Marlins side will be his back-up.

In recent years the Waratahs were a real threat to the Blues, with 5 wins in the last 7 years. The first years of Super Rugby, things were different. From 1996 till 2000, the Waratahs didn't win a single match against the Auckland opposition. The biggest win for the Blues was in 2007, when they played at Eden Park and thrashed them 34-6. While Peter Hewat scored 2 penalties, the Blues had a field day, with Daniel Braid, Troy Flavell (2) and Steve Devine scoring tries and Luke McAlister converting all 4 and adding 6 points from the kicking tee with 2 penalties. The Blues made the play offs that year in which they lost to the Sharks 34-18.

The biggest upset by the Waratahs was a year earlier. This time the Blues were impotent to score tries, only landing 3 penalties by Luke McAlister. The Waratahs were on a role, with tries to Adam Freier, Lote Tuqiri, Peter Hewat and Wedell Sailor. Peter Hewat converted all tries and added 5 successful penalties.

The Teams:

Blues: 15. Jared Payne, 14. Joe Rokocoko, 13. Benson Stanley, 12. Luke McAlister, 11. Lachie Munro, 10. Stephen Brett, 9. Alby Mathewson, 8. Peter Saili, 7. Luke Braid, 6. Jerome Kaino, 5. Ali Williams, 4. Anthony Boric, 3. John Afoa, 2. Keven Mealamu (c), 1. Charlie Faumuina.

Replacements: 16. Tom McCartney, 17. Tevita Mailau, 18. Chris Lowrey, 19. Daniel Braid, 20. Chris Smylie, 21. Winston Stanley, 22. Sherwin Stowers

Waratahs : 15. Lachie Turner, 14. Atieli Pakalani, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Kurtley Beale, 9. Josh Holmes, 8. Dave Dennis, 7. Phil Waugh (c), 6. Dean Mumm, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Kane Douglas, 3. Paddy Ryan, 2. John Ulugia, 1. Benn Robinson

Reserves: 16. Elvis Taione, 17. Jeremy Tilse, 18. Pat O'Connor, 19. Chris Alcock, 20. Hugh Perrett, 21. Brendan McKibbin, 22. Bernard Foley

The match will be officiated by these 4:

Referee: Chris Pollock
AR 1: Stuart Dickinson
AR 2: Glen Jackson
TMO: Vinny Munro

History in the regular season:

1996 Blues 56-44 Waratahs
1997 Waratahs 20-34 Blues
1998 Blues 47-25 Waratahs
1999 Waratahs 20-21 Blues
2000 Blues 31-17 Waratahs
2001 Waratahs 35-19 Blues
2002 Blues 22-20 Waratahs
2003 Waratahs 18-31 Blues
2004 Blues 22-17 Waratahs
2005 Waratahs 25-20 Blues
2006 Waratahs 43-9 Blues
2007 Blues 34-6 Waratahs
2008 Waratahs 37-16 Blues
2009 Blues 22-27 Waratahs
2010 Waratahs 39-22 Blues
2011 Blues 31-17 Waratahs


* The 2 teams have never met in the play offs

Play off results for both teams:

Blues:
5 play offs
4 finals
2 championships

Waratahs:
4 play offs
2 finals
0 championships

<a href="http://winbetting.at/therugbyforum?CTY=1&amp;CID=15908"><img src="http://b1.perfb.com/b1.php?ID=15908&amp;PURL=winbetting.at/therugbyforum" border="0" /></a>

*Vbookie odds supplied by BWIN*

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Can't see Waratahs winning with that injury list,
It's a shame because at full strength they could potentially win the whole tournament - but the telling of any team is their strength in depth, and we'll see how the Waratahs will do I guess

 

[Amobokoboko]

Blues should win it, as I said before they have the home advantage.

 

[Darwin]

Blues:
15 Jared Payne, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Benson Stanley, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Lachie Munro, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Peter Saili, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (c), 1 Charlie Faumuina.
Subs: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Tevita Mailau, 18 Chris Lowrey, 19 Daniel Braid, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Sherwin Stowers.

No changes to the Blues starting lineup, and only a single change to the bench, with Daniel Braid returning from injury to replace Sean Polwart.

The Blues should start as firm favourites in the this match due to the huge injury toll that the Waratahs have; I will make my prediction once I see the Waratahs starting lineup named.

EDIT:
Waratahs named:
Lachie Turner, Atieli Pakalani, Ryan Cross, Tom Carter, Soseni Anesi, Kurtley Beale, Josh Holmes; Dave Dennis, Phil Waugh (c), Dean Mumm, Sitaleki Timani, Kane Douglas, Paddy Ryan, John Ulugia, Benn Robinson. Res: Elvis Taione, Jeremy Tilse, Pat O'Connor, Chris Alcock, Hugh Perrett, Brendan McKibbin, Bernard Foley.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Waratahs have had a better end to their season the last couple of games but have the worse of the injury concerns and have to play away. Guess the blues have to be the favourites.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Blues: 15. Jared Payne, 14. Joe Rokocoko, 13. Benson Stanley, 12. Luke McAlister, 11. Lachie Munro, 10. Stephen Brett, 9. Alby Mathewson, 8. Peter Saili, 7. Luke Braid, 6. Jerome Kaino, 5. Ali Williams, 4. Anthony Boric, 3. John Afoa, 2. Keven Mealamu (c), 1. Charlie Faumuina.

Replacements: 16. Tom McCartney, 17. Tevita Mailau, 18. Chris Lowrey, 19. Daniel Braid, 20. Chris Smylie, 21. Winston Stanley, 22. Sherwin Stowers

Waratahs : 15. Lachie Turner, 14. Atieli Pakalani, 13. Ryan Cross, 12. Tom Carter, 11. Sosene Anesi, 10. Kurtley Beale, 9. Josh Holmes, 8. Dave Dennis, 7. Phil Waugh (c), 6. Dean Mumm, 5. Sitaleki Timani, 4. Kane Douglas, 3. Paddy Ryan, 2. John Ulugia, 1. Benn Robinson

Reserves: 16. Elvis Taione, 17. Jeremy Tilse, 18. Pat O'Connor, 19. Chris Alcock, 20. Hugh Perrett, 21. Brendan McKibbin, 22. Bernard Foley

 

[Amobokoboko]

Curious if Faumuina can keep his awesome shape

 

[Darwin]

The Blues should have an edge in the front row in the this match. The Blues are missing Tony Woodcock, but Charlie Faumuina has been in great form since he's been back from injury, particularly with his powerful ball running. The Waratahs are missing their first two choices at tight-head prop (Kepu, Baxter) and also their first two choices at hooker (Polota-Nau, Fitzpatrick), so have a much depleted front row. Benn Robinson is a good player, and Paddy Ryan is regarded highly as a promising player, but I feel they will struggle against the Blues front row. John Ulugia is a former prop so should be strong at scrum time, however his lineout throwing is poor; out of the 32 throws he his had so far, 5 of them has been not straight!

Both teams are well served in the locking department. Ali Williams has been particularly strong at lineout time throughout the season, and his generally play has been improving all season, while Boric too has been consistent all season. Sitaleki Timani and Kane Douglas are both quality locks for the Waratahs; Timani has been named in the Tongan RWC squad, but I wonder whether the Australian selectors may be interested in him. The loose-forward trios are pretty evenly matched in my opinion. Phil Waugh will want to have a huge match in what could be his last match for the Waratahs, though he will be tested by Luke Braid who some are tipping as an AB's bolter.

It will be interesting to see how Beale goes at 10. I feel his is less effective at 10, though that is probably due to the fact that I rate him as the best fullback in the world. I would certainly prefer Beale at 10 over Stephen Brett . The Waratahs have a powerful midfield, though perhaps lacking a bit of creativity (however with Beale at 10 they may not need it). Though the Blues have named McAlister at 12, he has played almost exclusively at fullback throughout recent matches, with Stanley at 12 and Payne at 13. The Waratahs certainly have plenty of pace in their back three; I'd imagine the Waratahs will trying to attack down Munro's wing as he lacks pace, and is weak defensively (he is a good goal-kicker though...). Rokocoko gets one of his last chances to push for AB's selection up against Anesi. Anesi will certainly match him for pace, but I feel Rokocoko best move may to be to run straight at him, as Anesi isn't the strongest defender..

I'm picking Blues to win the match by 10-15 points, as the Blues have everything in their favour for this match: the home advantage, and a ridiculous Waratahs injury toll. If the Blues can't win this match I'd imagine they would be very disappointed.

 

[Larksea]

blues. for the love of pete let it be the blues

 

[Hulk Hogan]

Well I've got my tickets for the Reds Semi, so I hope the Blues win it, because I'd love to see us play them again.

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

Blues-Reds... Now there's a match unsuited for colour-blind people

 

[Muzzy]

the warratahs are fielding a good back line with pakalani and anesi on the wings, pakalani has made a big impact every time he's come off the bench this season, but i haven't seen beale at first five before, i still have to give it to the blues at home

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Do you not have to use your arms in the tackle in the knock out rounds?
Every other tackle looks like a shoulder charge to me

Not a bad match so far - Seems like only one team turns up at a time, with one team playing great rugby while the other snoozes then a few minutes later it'll switch

 

[Seaton]

The whole morning I have had this nagging feeling that I had forgotten something
Then I saw one of my rugby balls, looked at it in deep thought for about half a minute, and then bolted for the T.V., spilling half my corn-flakes in the process

Lone behold, as soon as the telly was on, the Blues score and Waugh is once again caught doing dirty deeds

 

[Amobokoboko]

What's the score? super15 crashes constantly overhere ( bloody XP)

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

I sent you a PM where you can watch the match

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Blues 13 - 8 Waratahs
45mins

 

[Amobokoboko]

At work, can't watch it live, can only follow the score.
Who scored the try?

Thanks Olvy

 

[TRF_Olyy]

16 - 8 now (57mins)
Lachie Munro for Blues (McAllister converted, Munro got 3 pens), Tom Carter for NSW (unconverted, with a Beale penalty)

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

I predicted Tom Carter as a try scorer in the prediction game! Wow, that's 10 points already