[RWC2023 SF2] England vs South Africa (21/10/2023)

[TRF_stormer2010]

I would be surprised if the Bok setup didn't take this match just as seriously as France TBH. But you never know, academically you know you'll have to turn up but my hope is we do not buy into the favorites tag too much and recognize the danger no matter the sledging that will come from the fans in the lead up and it doesn't go sit there in the back of the mind.

Think the squad has been managed superbly. Like for instance Mostert was pulled early and you could see in his face he was anything but gassed and still hungry. Hopefully that hunger carries over. Other than that pull Vermeulen and put in Wiese for my 2 cents. Different players but here assuming we have experience elsewhere I'd rather bring in hunger but only 3 or max 4 positions so you don't disrupt the flow of the team. My hope:

1 Kitshoff / Nche
2 Mbonambi / Fourie
3 Malherbe / Nyakane - in the front row I am happy with either set starting and wouldn't see it as rotation per se and more shared load
4 Etzebeth (though he has to be knackered)
5 Mostert
6 Kolisi though you pull him early for Smith
7 PSdT
8 Wiese (Vermeulen totally out)
9 Reinach
10 Libbok
11 Arendse
12 De Allende
13 Kriel
14 Kolbe
15 Willemse

16/17/18 see 1/2/3
19 Snyman
20 Smith
21 De Klerk
22 Pollard
23 Am / Van Staden if 6-2 not too fussed

 

[bapean]

Gooo Boks ! Full support from France on this one

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

This is a point I've seen raised. But I would also point this out from Reddit (was from before the Quarter Finals):
1) We rested our players efficiently in the group stages. Clearly there was an eye on game time and most of or players were in the 145-180 minute range. Only player who has played most minutes is Willemse, and he is one of our youngest
2) We had a two week gap coming into the France game. Our team is relatively rested in general. That France game was massive, but the expectation was always going to be that you needed to do three weeks big in a row, and they'll be prepped for that.

View attachment 18207

Only player I think at risk of being gassed is Vermeulen, and I don't think we play him against England.

This is interesting to see, thank you for sharing it.

I agree with the diagnosis others have given - we shouldn't really have a hope in this one. And I have a feeling the biggest surprises of this tournament have already happened. As far as I can see, we are worse and SA are better - compared to the 2019 game in which we lost by a lot. Absolutely mad how much how change in that time.

On that point - this should never happen. I've said this elsewhere but it shouldn't be a given that you crater and peak every few cycles, especially when many players are still the same. England seem to do this and everybody buys into this narrative that we have to go through an inevitable rebuild process. I swear other teams don't go through the same lows as we do, relative to our highs.

Anyway - the biggest shard of hope we have in our favour is the fact that many of our players are more talented than they are currently showing. There is, 1000%, more potential in these players. Though whether the right ones are on the pitch remains to be seen. But I don't buy the narrative that we don't have the talent - people are fickle on this and we have short memories.

Gooo Boks ! Full support from France on this one

This is a highly impressive posts per year ratio

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

6 Kolisi though you pull him early for Smith

19 Snyman
20 Van Staden
21 De Klerk
22 Pollard
23 Am / Kleyn if 6-2 not too fussed

You've forgotten something

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

You've forgotten something

Lol. Took me a while to see it!

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

We could genuinely lose this by 30 points + which is rather depressing - what's the biggest margin in a quarter ever?

I assume you mean the biggest margin in a semi-final?

1987: NZL 49-6 WAL (43)
2007: RSA 37-13 ARG (24)
1995: NZL 45-29 ENG (16)

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

O'Keefe to referee. I maintain he is not a natural fit for what we intend to do but I think that counts for England as well and we might be better placed to play to how he refs unless England start moving away from what one would expect of them- which is what I think puts them in the best position to win this but I don't expect them to make major alterations which suits my nerves just fine.

Again as I said in the France game at least he tends to be even handed and you could get far worse. You just have to make sure you adapt to his approach of letting things slide at the ruck unless his hand is forced.

 

[ncurd]

O'Keefe to referee. I maintain he is not a natural fit for what we intend to do but I think that counts for England as well and we might be better placed to play to how he refs.

Again as I said in the France game at least he tends to be even handed and you could get far worse. You just have to make sure you adapt to his approach of letting things slide at the ruck unless his hand is forced.

Suits us terribly England never adapt to referees and I can't honestly remember the last time we tried to get away with much at the rucks. If that is that style and he remain consistent expect a lot of Englishmen to be annoyed were pretty clean at rucks and SA getting away with ****.

I have a theroy that I think the English players get spoiled domestically with decent referees coached in the same style and can't cope when internationally when other countries ref are quite as good.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Suits us terribly England never adapt to referees and I can't honestly remember the last time we tried to get away with much at the rucks. If that is that style and he remain consistent expect a lot of Englishmen to be annoyed were pretty clean at rucks and SA getting away with ****.

I have a theroy that I think the English players get spoiled domestically with decent referees coached in the same style and can't cope when internationally when other countries ref are quite as good.

I had that same theory with SA domestic refs but TBH ours have gone somewhat downhill. Last really good SA ref is Kaplan and that's ages ago. Ours are still better though than the baseline in URC which is frustrating.

Yeah, I see England as a pretty "honest" side at the ruck. We are pretty new to adapting TBH. Think NZ and more recently Ireland are the masters still but you have to play to the margins they are so fine at the top.

 

[SteveAustin794582]

I'll put a cheeky fiver on England here, as they have no expectation, and they didn't have to get to the emotional high last week that SA needed to in order to defeat France. The turnaround is short and so recovery time for the quicker SA game might be a factor as well, although looking at the stats, that game was only 60%of the yardage and tackles of the NZ v Ire game.

I think SA ought to start their B-team, but England have a squad that should all have memories of beating SA and if they can keep the game close then anything can happen.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'll put a cheeky fiver on England here, as they have no expectation, and they didn't have to get to the emotional high last week that SA needed to in order to defeat France. The turnaround is short and so recovery time for the quicker SA game might be a factor as well, although looking at the stats, that game was only 60%of the yardage and tackles of the NZ v Ire game.

I think SA ought to start their B-team, but England have a squad that should all have memories of beating SA and if they can keep the game close then anything can happen.

There would be a temptation for playing a B side but even with my belief in our depth if we change much more than resting Vermeulen I might join you in letting loose change ride on England.

 

[ncurd]

There would be a temptation for playing a B side but even with my belief in our depth if we change much more than resting Vermeulen I might join you in letting loose change ride on England.

It would be the kind of mistake that deserves loosing. Plus no one could call the English arrogant ever again.

I mean its absolutely the trap SA need to fall into thinking its a forgone conclusion. This England side are shocking but they also have shown when the stars align that they actually do know how to play rugby. A SA who think they've already won against a side who string three passes together can be beaten.

Its hard but SA do still need to bring their A-game they'll win comfotably if they do. Anything else and they do risk loosing and letting a really shocking England side into a final.

 

[Jer1cho]

There would be a temptation for playing a B side but even with my belief in our depth if we change much more than resting Vermeulen I might join you in letting loose change ride on England.

The same team will play on Sat I think. Outlying picks would be Esterhuyzen and maybe Willie to start. Pollard also to start. But im not too sure what we will do. 6-2 a bigger possibility also.

 

[ageingback23]

There would be a temptation for playing a B side but even with my belief in our depth if we change much more than resting Vermeulen I might join you in letting loose change ride on England.

I know England aren't in the best place, but there is no way SA are wheeling out a B side to face us in a semi final of a WC. I expect to see the full force of their very best come Saturday.

 

[OllyM97]

SA won't be soft-peddling for this one, not a chance. They've got their eyes on the prize and this England team is not going to stop them. I fear it could be get embarrassing. Springboks 40 England 12.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

SA won't be soft-peddling for this one, not a chance. They've got their eyes on the prize and this England team is not going to stop them. I fear it could be get embarrassing. Springboks 40 England 12.

I was at Twickenham that fateful day in 2008 when we lost 6 - 42 to the Boks. So was Steve Borthwick in fact - as Captain. In fact was this the time he was asked what he thought of Englands performance and he said it was "amazing" or something?
Also Danny Care started that day- the only one left standing. What I can say is that we have a more able squad then back then.



I prefer Danny Care to Danny Care and would still take the versatility of Tom Croft. Other than that.....Tom Rees could have been a top player to be fair had the wasps no. 7 curse not struck him down.

Edit: Just realised how many of these players were wasps or ex wasps - I was just about to say that comparing the quality of those two sides in hindsight is pretty hilarious.

 

[ageingback23]

So I know we all think England are up the creek without a paddle for this one, and that's a pretty fair assessment. SA looked on top form at the weekend, and I don't think a single English player would currently grace their squad (if you catch my meaning), so what is poor old SB to do?

For me, I think it has to be an all out kicking extravaganza from England. We're not fast enough to go around, or strong enough to go through, so let's go over. It's seemed to be working for the French and gets around the Boks rush defence. Lots of chips and 50/22s. Keep them back, play the percentages. If in the 22, with 5 phases and no movement, drop goal the thing and reset. Don't give SA any chance to turn us over or win a pen. This sort of game would sort Ford a lot more, but we all know Faz is starting at 10. I wonder whether the back will look like this:

9.mitchell
10. Farrell
11. Daly (60 meter boot may come in handy)
12. Manu
13. Lawrence (max out on bulk and D in centres)
14. May
15. Steward (solid under the high balls)

Assuming 5/3 split Ford, Marchant, Smith

Not sure what the best thing to do in the forwards is. I would argue Earl, Underwood, Curry. Mobile, good tacklers, max chances of turnovers, but in reality I guess we need Laws in that back row, unless we fancy having in the 2nd row with Itoje (I know people hate this idea). I'd like to see Ludlum on the bench. Think he brings some real attacking threat when he comes on. Much more than Billy V.

I just hope the lads give it 100% , fight for everything, and make good account of themselves. All it takes sometimes is a moment of brilliance, an unlucky Red, or a bounce of the ball, and fortunes can change.

 

[Half Pint]

h

For me, I think it has to be an all out kicking extravaganza from England. We're not fast enough to go around, or strong enough to go through, so let's go over.

Good idea! Let's start Henry Sla... what?? oh dear.

 

[SteveAustin794582]

I'm not sure why the South Africans are so against starting the B-team, when you were all very strong believer's in your bomb squad last month. And don't say that the bomb squad is proof that the B-team is any lesser than the A-team. The coach and fans were more than comfortable in putting out the B(omb) squad against the world's number 1 ranked side for half of the game, but you are fearful of putting out those same players to start against the 6th ranked team who are even struggling to hold onto that ranking?

I would definitely take advantage of the opportunity to play my rested players.

Alternatively, the English must be going into this game so relaxed given what everyone has written about them.

 

[BakkiesBokke]

I'd play Jasper Wiese and rest Vermeulen. If we're in the final DV can give it his all then. Kriel looked exhausted. Maybe de Allende / Am, with Kriel on bench? Nyakane only Prop to not play France so expect he will start. 6 day turn-around after that game is pretty tough.