[RWC2019][Quarter-Final 2] New Zealand vs. Ireland (19/10/2019)

[sigesige00]

Ireland are the last team I wanted New Zealand to face in the quarterfinals.
While on current form we must be considered favourites, I feel this is the situation most likely to cause an upset and knock us out early.
Ireland has beaten NZ two of the last three times we have played each other. This means that despite form this Ireland team will believe they can win this game. The All Black aura that often gives us a mental edge won't be there.
The fact that Ireland have never won a knock is it game in a rugby World Cup adds to the danger. Mentally this is Ireland's final. Over the years I have often seen the black caps peak in the early stages of knock out, especially against teams ranked better than us, only to be spent and get thrashed in the next game. I feel Ireland are a danger of doing that to us here. Getting up for the big game and beating NZ only to play poorly in the semi.
I still think NZ will win but I'd feel more comfortable against any other team in the quarterfinals.

Yes Ireland will do semi-final. Score will be like 17-10 or so.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

its the biggest selection question along with who teams up with ALB in the midfield.
my guess is they start him and monitor how he goes. There is an option to have both Scott Barrett and Tuipulotu on the bench for extra lock cover

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, that they might consider two locks on the bench, with barret able to cover 6 as well.

I don't know who should start with alb in the midfield, but I want Crotty I'm the bench. Tj, Crotty, b smith sounds like a good bench to finish with in a potentially tight and nervey qf. I'd be tempted to start Weber at this point.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Surely ABs will line up the team they played v SA right? That means starting Crotty and ALB in the Centre. Crotty is the brains in midfield.

SBW and BSmith on the bench to come on in the second half. Only other question is Todd or Frizzel? I suspect the former if Barrett is covering lock and 6. But that depends on if Rettalick stays on past half time.

Ireland - Earls or Larmour for the 14 jersey? Kearney back to 15?

I also see Nige reffing this one. So should be a good game.

 

[Larksea]

Surely ABs will line up the team they played v SA right? That means starting Crotty and ALB in the Centre. Crotty is the brains in midfield.

SBW and BSmith on the bench to come on in the second half. Only other question is Todd or Frizzel? I suspect the former if Barrett is covering lock and 6. But that depends on if Rettalick stays on past half time.

Ireland - Earls or Larmour for the 14 jersey? Kearney back to 15?

well it wont be the same side as Retallick is back from injury. Of the midfielders ALB and SBW have been the best performers over recent tests but Crotty is the experienced all rounder, and between the two SBW may be the best bench option. Jordie Barrett has been very good as well which complicates things but Ben Smith is the most likely option for that last bench spot.
The AB's protocol has been to give a player coming back from injury ~30min then ~60min in comeback games before giving them the all clear, but we lost a game. The squad would have had a game/simulation in-house to make up for that so they will know where Retallick is at. Either way hes most likely a starter. Friz has been pretty good but Todd is still the likely option. But I still think Tui/Scott option is a good chance too. Scott Barrett is a certainty, can cover 6 and Tuipulotu has been excellent.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, that they might consider two locks on the bench, with barret able to cover 6 as well.

I don't know who should start with alb in the midfield, but I want Crotty I'm the bench. Tj, Crotty, b smith sounds like a good bench to finish with in a potentially tight and nervey qf. I'd be tempted to start Weber at this point.

I think you can have Crotty go 80mins right? I like SBW on the bench, he seems to play well in that role, although I don't mind either of those two alongside ALB.

Surely ABs will line up the team they played v SA right? That means starting Crotty and ALB in the Centre. Crotty is the brains in midfield.

SBW and BSmith on the bench to come on in the second half. Only other question is Todd or Frizzel? I suspect the former if Barrett is covering lock and 6. But that depends on if Rettalick stays on past half time.

Ireland - Earls or Larmour for the 14 jersey? Kearney back to 15?

I think they may go with Barrett and Tuipolotu. Especially given Retallick is short of a gallop. Then you can have Barrett come on at 6 and Tuipolotu as genuine locking cover. If not the case, then I suspect Todd will be there, although Frizell has looked decent enough in his games thus far.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I think you can have Crotty go 80mins right? I like SBW on the bench, he seems to play well in that role, although I don't mind either of those two alongside ALB.



I think they may go with Barrett and Tuipolotu. Especially given Retallick is short of a gallop. Then you can have Barrett come on at 6 and Tuipolotu as genuine locking cover. If not the case, then I suspect Todd will be there, although Frizell has looked decent enough in his games thus far.

I prefer experienced and smart, cool headed players to finish World Cup knockout games. I guess sbw has big March experience, but he can throw some bad offloads at time's; In big matches, not sure?

 

[Kiwiwomble]

I prefer experienced and smart, cool headed players to finish World Cup knockout games. I guess sbw has big March experience, but he can throw some bad offloads at time's; In big matches, not sure?

or should we be planning for the worst case and to be behind and need a line breaker to come on late, someone with a bit of unpredictability to change the dynamic

 

[Umaga's Witness]

or should we be planning for the worst case and to be behind and need a line breaker to come on late, someone with a bit of unpredictability to change the dynamic

Even then, they have to be cool headed. Usual confidence and nothing to lose mentality goes out the door. I think late in the game you don't need X factor, vision is more important. X factor is what is needed to break the defence at the start. I feel like the world has got this all around the wrong way, for knockout games at least. Pace is useful though.

 

[TheOvalBall]

I actually don't care who wins the World Cup, as long it is not New Zealand.

 

[Cooper]

its the biggest selection question along with who teams up with ALB in the midfield.
my guess is they start him and monitor how he goes. There is an option to have both Scott Barrett and Tuipulotu on the bench for extra lock cover

I like that. It's tough to drop Todd, but having Tuipolotu and Barrett come on gives us a lot more physicality and size even if Todd has bulked up and we can attack their lineouts.
Barrett to 6 and Ardie to 7 or keep Cane on around the 60th minute. Hansen's been making the bold tactical calls. I think this works better for us as well, because Todd was non-existent in last years game vs Ireland.

Sam Cane being fit puts a different complexion on the back row battle compared to 2018. Todd and Squire had a bad day at the office last year. Cane provides us with that extra physicality, work rate and fortitude. I feel way more comfortable with our current loose forward trio compared to last years game. Sam Cane being back is a really important cog in our teams machine.

Going back to SBW/Crotty and who is starting, I was concerned with SBW's showing vs SA, he looked behind the pace.

 

[donmcdazzle]

I actually don't care who wins the World Cup, as long it is not New Zealand.

What an insightful comment...

 

[WaterboySA]

Brodie HAS to start.....he's that big a game changer. And dare I say SBW also.....any case, I'm going to be the odd one out and say I'd LOVE the All Blacks to take the cup if it's not going to be SA(which I don't think will be the case). My other problem is, if you go to the posts of the last world cup, I called Ireland as my nr 2 team....these two teams play the game in the same style as the Bokke....so I'm in two minds(as long as the AB's win)......

 

[Cooper]

What an insightful comment...

It's normal for most neutrals to want a different winner, I wouldn't be worried by these comments.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I actually don't care who wins the World Cup, as long it is New Zealand.

No takebacks

 

[Goodey]

Apparently it's going to be chucking it down in Tokyo on Saturday.

Does that favour Ireland?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Apparently it's going to be chucking it down in Tokyo on Saturday.

Does that favour Ireland?

100% chance of rain in Tokyo according to BBC weather.

It's going to be a kicking contest then. May favour Ireland, especially as their game relies on going through multiple phases rather than offloads, which can be spilt.

Will be interesting to see if ABs allow Ireland the possession or whether they will reply on turnover ball to score off of.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

An on form Sexton/Murray is the best wet weather halfback pairing in the game,
Will they be on form, though? Murray's not been great so far

Also New Zealand is as rainy as anywhere in the NH so it's not like they won't be used to playing in the wet. Their kicking game ain't great, though

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Considering we need at least 60% possession for a shot here, and we've been sloppy thus far I'd say it's advantage NZ.

 

[Hunted]

Can't see anything other than an Ireland win.

The All Blacks have always looked like the 2nd best team since we've played recently. Schmidt has Hansen's number.

 

[OwenPB]

I'm happy at least that it isn't a Frenchman.

How you you Irish fans feel about Nigel Owens?

Pretty happy. Wonder how he'll ref the rucks, where he's generally spot on, but in this WC has been pretty much a "do what you want" zone for refs.