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That's a good assessment. I'd be pretty optimistic about 2023 (already falling into the same traps) there's a talented group of players in the current squad and enough young talent coming through to fill in most of the gaps.Looking at the current Ireland Squad and these seem to be the current players who will be there in four years. I'd say anyone at 33-34 is unlikely personally, though possible, so I won't include them. Dunno if there are any obvious injuries off the top of my head. Think maybe somewhere in the back row possibly...
As for younger players who might come through I'm sure our Irish contributors are in a much better position to comment.
Props: Furlong, Porter (Though both a tightheads)
Hooker: Scannell (Haven't seen enough to say he's the permanent solution, but others might disagree.)
Locks: Ryan, Beirne, Henderson, Kleyn (bit of depth here and Beirne can also slot in the back row)
Back Row: Conan, Stander, Van der Flier, Murphy and Ruddock. (All of them will be past 30 here and back row hasn't been hugely consistent for Ireland, so possibility to develop some younger players maybe?)
SH: McGrath (Marmion as well in the wings. However neither have really put their hand up to claim the shirt, potential for someone younger to upset the ranks?)
FH: Carbery, Carty (Again neither has stood up to claim the shirt post-Sexton and Ross Byrne also played in the warm ups. Hopefully competition might be healthy for them.)
Centres: Henshaw, Ringrose, Farrell (If Ireland can have Henshaw and Ringrose fit at the same time and on form they have an excellent centre pairing. This year didn't work out for them)
Backs: Stockdale, Larmour, Conway (Stockdale needs to learn when not to rush up, but attacking wise he's great. Larmour also looks like he'll be very composed at the back.)
So personally out of the current squad you have about 9 key players to develop around. I think SH and FH are a bit up in the air still and maybe have an issue with loosehead props, but as I said it's based purely on current squad.
Prop: as you say, potentially an issue at loosehead, all the capped players are 29+, dont think any of them are getting near the next World cup. There are some decent young players around the provinces (especially Ed Byrne and Eric O'Sullivan at Leinster and Ulster respectively) but none of them are future world beaters. There are some very good kids but they're still at schoolboy U19/20 level so too early to tell if there's a solution there really. Hopefully we get another year or two out of Healy while giving time to some younger options and then we can take it from there. Tighthead I'd hope we're sorted long term with Furlong and Porter (who I wouldn't be against moving back to loosehead because I think he's too good to spend his entire career as a backup for Furlong and he's still improving). Nothing special behind those two really but plenty of time for options to emerge.
Hooker: I'd agree with you that Scannell probably isn't a long term solution but he's good enough to hold the jersey down for a few years at the very least. From what I've seen of Ronan Kelleher I'd be confident saying he's Leinster's long term starter, probably won't be making the Ireland squad for another bit but he's very talented, and McBurnie at Ulster is another very strong prospect to keep an eye on.
Lock: I think in an ideal world Ryan is captain next time. Henderson and Beirne should both still be around as well. Dillanne went off the boil badly over the last while but has come back to himself and should put himself in the frame. To be honest I'd hope we can do away with the idea that Kleyn is an international lock, we can do much better. Ryan Baird will hopefully have made the grade by then as well.
Backrow: too many young talents to name, if I try to get them all I'll forget someone so I'll just go with Max Deegan (former world U20 player of the year) and leave it at that. As you say Van der Flier and Conan will still be there, so will potentially Stander. Hopefully Leavy can get back from injury and back to his best, phenomenal player. Overall very excited about this area.
Scrumhalf: nothing amazing, there are the current options who'll be four years older and then Craig Casey who was ridiculously good for the U20s last year and has the talent to be as good as anyone but not much other than that.
Outhalf: I'm a huge fan of Harry Byrne (Ross Byrne's younger brother, very different player). Sexton I think is worth at least keeping around for another while but we do need to be developing multiple potential starters from now on. Ross Byrne is limited but very good and is worth international minutes as well. Carbery is obviously the presumed heir to the throne but we'll see what happens.
Centre: no reason why Henshaw-Ringrose won't still be the best really.
Back three: Larmour will hopefully be a starter from now on, Stockdale can hopefully get his mojo back, Conway is a decent option. Some young talent but no safe bets to be a future international. Adam Byrne I think should be gunning for an international recall but we'll see what happens.
Overall a decent core to build around and a lot of young talent to bring in over the next few years.