Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

[Brigantine]

I see you think you can come swanning back in here just because the Sunwolves won a game.

Nothing changed until the ARC / 6 Nations started up again. And then I watched Belgium vs Germany and it was so painful it took me a while to recover I wrote off Germany once their money ran out (and ran to Paris), but I was hoping they might at least avoid relegation.

Not quite getting the Competitive Pool Results. It means France have a 96% chance of finishing 4th or higher in their pool?

Exactly that

I checked... Italy is the only team this RWC that doesn't matter. Bad luck!

But here are the stats:
Chance of finishing below Canada and Namibia: 0.1%.
Between Canada and Namibia: 2.2%.
Following the script and finishing 3rd in pool: 96.5%. As a bet, this would pay 3c (less any margin the bookies take)
Actually qualifying for a QF: 1.4%.
Finishing ahead of NZ in group: <does not happen once in 10,000 scenarios>.

Winning a QF: <In 10,000 scenarios, this happens exactly once>.

Here's how that one scenario goes:
Italy play as though they were at 77.87 RP (+5.12 - 1 chance in 300), South Africa play as though they were at 82.96 RP (-1.62 - 1 chance in 7)
Italy narrowly beat South Africa in pool (1 chance in 4 - after the RP adjustments). Scotland top Pool A (1 chance in 33) on BPs after Japan beat Ireland.
Italy beat Scotland in the QF (1 chance in 2.5 - after RP adjustment to Italy) in regular time, by about 5 points.

In the Semis normal programming resumes. Italy lose to Australia by ~35, and in the Bronze final face England and get destroyed. Then NZ win the cup.
I trust that managed to make you feel better, Brucey

If you could get good odds on Australia topping their group that is the one I'd opt for. It stands out to me due to the likely temperatures. I think all the Oz stats are less generous than what the reality will be.

Yes, well. It's a fair assumption that Wales is currently flattered by the rankings and Australia the opposite. And a few RP makes a big difference.

I'll do a test...

If I give Australia a 3 RP bonus, then the probabilities come to...
At least 2nd in pool 91%, 1st in pool 33%, reach SF 53%, Champion 4.0%, (runner up 11%, 3rd place 14%)

Taking Wales down 3 RP as well...
At least 2nd in pool 93% (Wales 92%, Fiji 14%, Georgia 1%), 1st in pool 49% (Wales 48%, Fiji 3%), reach SF 60%, Champion 4.5% (NZ 55%, Wales 4.5%), (runner up 13%, 3rd place 19%)

If those odds sound more realistic to you... well that's a reasonable thing to believe. But I wouldn't go any higher than that.

Compared to the openness of, for example, the Football World Cup.

There's a good table for the 2018 FIFA cup here. Scroll to just below the table and select Forecast From: before tournament.

Soccer seems to have about 3x as many countries at each level.
NZ's chances in Rugby are like Brazil, Spain and Germany combined.
Ireland's are like France, Argentina and Belgium combined.
Wales' are like England and Portugal combined, then
England's chances at Rugby are like Croatia, Colombia, Uruguay and Switzerland combined

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

So if I'm reading you right you are telling me Italy have a chance!?

They really are in the worst group imaginable for entertainment and potential upsets - so I'll let you off for ignoring them. Namibia and Canada are potentially the two weakest sides in the tournament in my opinion, possibly by some distance.

I do like the whole Japan beat Ireland, Italy beat the Boks (again) and then have a QF clash against a beaten up Scotland. That's a scenario I can get behind for that 1 in 10,000 shot at getting to the semis. I might actually bother to tune in now rather than make a homemade 2023 calendar and gaze at it wistfully.

Interesting comparison with football. I think it is fair when you consider Greece won the Euros once and you can get weird football semi finalists like S Korea, Senegal and Turkey. Utterly unthinkable in rugby.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

It's easier in football, however, to keep the score respectable. All you have to do is put every man behind the ball and that makes it hard for the opposition to break down. In rugby though, you have to come out and attack the other team as you have no option but to try and win. This makes upsets in rugby so much less likely as the skill difference between Ireland and USA for example is so large that Ireland should technically have a hard time NOT winning

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

It's easier in football, however, to keep the score respectable. All you have to do is put every man behind the ball and that makes it hard for the opposition to break down. In rugby though, you have to come out and attack the other team as you have no option but to try and win. This makes upsets in rugby so much less likely as the skill difference between Ireland and USA for example is so large that Ireland should technically have a hard time NOT winning

Absolutely WD2000 (so much better than WD40, like Terminator T-1000 ). But football has professional football across the world, whereas professionalism is limited in rugby. It will be a big deal for rugby if Pro rugby in North America brings major benefits for player development and international performance for US and Canada.

If, like Romania and Russia, it only helps in slightly closing the gap to Tier1 then it is difficult to see gaps closing in all but the longest of time frames.

7s is obviously a completely different sport, but skill and fitness are still vital. Yet it has Chile drawing with SA and PNG defeating France. It never ceases to amaze me how hard upset victories are in international XVs compared to 7s. Look at the upsets in Super Rugby this season as an example of how it shouldn't be so darn hard. In internationals each upset is like a minor miracle to cherish.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

International Soccer is the exception rather than the rule of how competitive international sports are. Basketball, Cricket, Hockey are all about as competitive or less competitive than rugby.

Interestingly at club level Soccer doesn't appear to be more competitive at the very top at all, since the inaugural Heineken Cup there's been 11 winners and 18 different finalists, in the same period of time there's been 12 Champions League winners and 17 different finalists.

 

[Derpus]

International Soccer is the exception rather than the rule of how competitive international sports are. Basketball, Cricket, Hockey are all about as competitive or less competitive than rugby.

Interestingly at club level Soccer doesn't appear to be more competitive at the very top at all, since the inaugural Heineken Cup there's been 11 winners and 18 different finalists, in the same period of time there's been 12 Champions League winners and 17 different finalists.

Money absolutely destroys competition without appropriate caps. All the richest clubs regularly win their leagues. The only reason the EPL is slightly more open than say, the Bundesliga, is because there are a lot of obscenely rich clubs with effectively no cap on how much they can spend. See 70 million odd pounds for an pretty standard keeper.

International Football is something to aspire to and Club Football should be cautionary. The way things are going, the European club game is going to **** rugby up. It's certainly undermining Super rugby and the Wallabies with the player drain.

 

[FrenchFan]

The way things are going, the European club game is going to **** rugby up. It's certainly undermining Super rugby and the Wallabies with the player drain.

Nothing compared with what WR can do.

 

[Immenso]

I try not to put too much stock in these types of predictions. But if there is genuinely a 73% chance that the RWC is going to one of two teams, how uninspiring is that? Compared to the openness of, for example, the Football World Cup.

I don't think the two pre-tournament favourites have ever both made it to the final, in any RWC tournament yet.

Let alone winning it. I think the favourite has won only about 3 times.

 

[Brigantine]

Wales winning doesn't seem so crazy now huh

Welcome to the top 2!

Pool A 1st Japan, 2nd Ireland (3rd Scotland)
Pool B 1st New Zealand, 2nd South Africa (3rd Spain)
Pool C 1st England 2nd Argentina (3rd France)
Pool D 1st Australia 2nd Wales (3rd Georgia)

QF1 Japan 34-32 South Africa
QF2 England 25-28 Wales
QF3 New Zealand 29-40 Ireland
QF4 Australia 33-21 Argentina

SF1 Japan vs Wales
SF2 Ireland vs Australia

Bronze Japan (4th) vs Ireland (3rd)
Final Wales (1st) vs Australia (2nd)

 

[Brigantine]

Now that the Six Nations is finished, there is little opportunity for these projections to change before the RWC.

Toss a coin until it lands on heads.
Heads on the 1st toss: NZ win.
2nd toss: Wales.
3rd toss: Ireland.
4th toss: England.
5th toss: South Africa
7th toss: Australia

SF2 will more likely than not be Wales vs Ireland

There are now 3 scenarios out of the 10,000 simulated in which Italy reaches the SFs, meaning it's not just a fluke so they get their "<0.1%" back

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 53% +1 Chance (and for runner-up 24% +2)
Wales - 25% +11 Chance (runner-up 29% +5)
Ireland - 13% -8 Chance (runner-up 19% -7)
England - 6.0% -3.0 Chance (runner-up 11% -2)
South Africa - 2.5% NC Chance (runner-up 10% NC)
Australia - 0.8% NC Chance (runner-up 3.5% NC)
Scotland - 0.1% +0.1 Chance (runner-up 1.2% +0.6)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.4% +0.4 chance the runner-up will be France (0.8% +0.2), Japan (0.2% NC) Fiji (0.2% +0.1), or Argentina (0.1% -0.1).

Chance of making the Semis:

94.0% -0.5 - New Zealand
91.0% +6 - Wales
65% -7 - England
64% -8 - Ireland
36% +6 - South Africa
30% +1 - Australia
8.0% NC - France
4.5% +1.5 - Scotland
4.0% +1.0 - Fiji
2.0% -1.0 - Argentina
1.2% +0.2 - Japan
0.4% - Other (Georgia 0.4%, Tonga <0.1%, Italy <0.1%)

Competitive Pool Results:
Placings with the most uncertainty listed first, (+) / (-) indicates change in position in this table since 2 weeks ago.
For this table, e.g. "3rd in Pool" is really referring to 3rd or better in pool.

4th in Pool C: France 98%, Argentina 92%, Tonga 64%, USA 46%
4th in Pool B: Canada 56%, Namibia 44%
2nd in Pool C: France 63%, Argentina 30%, Tonga 6%, USA 3%
3rd in Pool C: France 89%, Argentina 72%, Tonga 25%, USA 14%
2nd in Pool A: Scotland 63%, Japan 38%
(+) 3rd in Pool D: Australia 96%, Fiji 72%, Georgia 29%, Uruguay 3%
(+2) 2nd in Pool D: Australia 76%, Fiji 20%, Georgia 4%
(-2) 4th in Pool A: Samoa 77%, Russia 23%
(-) 4th in Pool D: Fiji 96%, Georgia 83%, Uruguay 21%
(+) 1st in Pool C: England 87%, France 10%, Argentina 3%
(-) 1st in Pool D: Wales 89%, Australia 10%, Fiji 1%

 

[The Seeker]

As long as the USA finishes ahead of our rival Canada, I'm good. Here's the highlights from our recent victory over them in the America's Championship.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Now that the Six Nations is finished, there is little opportunity for these projections to change before the RWC.

Toss a coin until it lands on heads.
Heads on the 1st toss: NZ win.
2nd toss: Wales.
3rd toss: Ireland.
4th toss: England.
5th toss: South Africa
7th toss: Australia

SF2 will more likely than not be Wales vs Ireland

There are now 3 scenarios out of the 10,000 simulated in which Italy reaches the SFs, meaning it's not just a fluke so they get their "<0.1%" back

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 53% +1 Chance (and for runner-up 24% +2)
Wales - 25% +11 Chance (runner-up 29% +5)
Ireland - 13% -8 Chance (runner-up 19% -7)
England - 6.0% -3.0 Chance (runner-up 11% -2)
South Africa - 2.5% NC Chance (runner-up 10% NC)
Australia - 0.8% NC Chance (runner-up 3.5% NC)
Scotland - 0.1% +0.1 Chance (runner-up 1.2% +0.6)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.4% +0.4 chance the runner-up will be France (0.8% +0.2), Japan (0.2% NC) Fiji (0.2% +0.1), or Argentina (0.1% -0.1).

Chance of making the Semis:

94.0% -0.5 - New Zealand
91.0% +6 - Wales
65% -7 - England
64% -8 - Ireland
36% +6 - South Africa
30% +1 - Australia
8.0% NC - France
4.5% +1.5 - Scotland
4.0% +1.0 - Fiji
2.0% -1.0 - Argentina
1.2% +0.2 - Japan
0.4% - Other (Georgia 0.4%, Tonga <0.1%, Italy <0.1%)

Competitive Pool Results:
Placings with the most uncertainty listed first, (+) / (-) indicates change in position in this table since 2 weeks ago.
For this table, e.g. "3rd in Pool" is really referring to 3rd or better in pool.

4th in Pool C: France 98%, Argentina 92%, Tonga 64%, USA 46%
4th in Pool B: Canada 56%, Namibia 44%
2nd in Pool C: France 63%, Argentina 30%, Tonga 6%, USA 3%
3rd in Pool C: France 89%, Argentina 72%, Tonga 25%, USA 14%
2nd in Pool A: Scotland 63%, Japan 38%
(+) 3rd in Pool D: Australia 96%, Fiji 72%, Georgia 29%, Uruguay 3%
(+2) 2nd in Pool D: Australia 76%, Fiji 20%, Georgia 4%
(-2) 4th in Pool A: Samoa 77%, Russia 23%
(-) 4th in Pool D: Fiji 96%, Georgia 83%, Uruguay 21%
(+) 1st in Pool C: England 87%, France 10%, Argentina 3%
(-) 1st in Pool D: Wales 89%, Australia 10%, Fiji 1%

I think Italy should be ahead of Tonga alphabetically and be the 13th most likely nation to get to the semis.

Mad stats for Wales winning their group. The Aussie sides aren't stinking quite as badly in SuperRugby this year.

 

[Brigantine]

Competitive Pool Results:
Placings with the most uncertainty listed first, (+) / (-) indicates change in position in this table since 2 weeks ago.
For this table, e.g. "3rd in Pool" is really referring to 3rd or better in pool.

This time including countries on 99%+ and <1%, and less rounding where appropriate.
(in 10%-90% range, an average of 10,000 simulations is only accurate to 1pp anyway. For 2.5%-10%/90%-97.5% I can go to 0.5pp, for 0.6%-2.2%/97.8%-99.4% to 0.2pp, and <0.5%/>99.5% to 0.1pp. For the range 3-7 scenarios out of 10,000 the accuracy is simply "<0.1%"/">99.9%", but events with only 1 or 2 scenarios are not statistically distinguishable from 0 scenarios, so are ignored)

1st in Pool affects who your QF (and subsequent) opponents are
2nd in Pool is significant because you progress to a QF
3rd in Pool is significant because you earn automatic qualification to RWC 2023
4th in Pool just means you didn't come last

4th in Pool C: England 100%, France 97.5%, Argentina 92.5%, Tonga 64%, USA 46%
4th in Pool B: NZ 100%, SA 100%, Italy 99.8%, Canada 56%, Namibia 44%
2nd in Pool C: England 98.5%, France 63%, Argentina 30%, Tonga 6.0%, USA 2.5%
3rd in Pool C: England >99.9%, France 89%, Argentina 72%, Tonga 25%, USA 14%
2nd in Pool A: Ireland 99.0%, Scotland 63%, Japan 38%, Samoa 0.4%, Russia 0%
(+) 3rd in Pool D: Wales 100%, Australia 96.0%, Fiji 72%, Georgia 29%, Uruguay 3.0%
(+2) 2nd in Pool D: Wales 99.6%, Australia 76%, Fiji 20%, Georgia 4.5%, Uruguay <0.1%
(-2) 4th in Pool A: Ire 100%, Sco 100%, Japan >99.9%, Samoa 77%, Russia 23%
(-) 4th in Pool D: Wales 100%, Australia 99.9%, Fiji 96%, Georgia 83%, Uruguay 21%

Uncompetitive Pool Results:

A special for Italy fans

2nd in Pool B: NZ 100%, South Africa 99.2%, Italy 0.8%, Canada 0%, Namibia 0%
3rd in Pool B: NZ 100%, SA 100%, Italy 96.5%, Canada 2.5%, Namibia 1.0%
3rd in Pool A: Ireland 100%, Scotland 98.8%, Japan 96%, Samoa 5.5%, Russia <0.1%
1st in Pool A: Ireland 91.0%, Scotland 7.0%, Japan 2.0%, Samoa 0%, Russia 0%
1st in Pool D: Wales 89%, Australia 10%, Fiji 0.5%, Georgia <0.1%, Uruguay 0%
1st in Pool B: New Zealand 89%, South Africa 11%, Italy 0%, Canada 0%, Namibia 0%
1st in Pool C: England 87%, France 10%, Argentina 3.0%, Tonga <0.1%, USA 0%

A note on those 3 Italy SF scenarios: One was the same one mentioned earlier (#81), but in the other 2 Japan actually top Pool A (Ireland 2nd), and Italy beat Japan in the QF.
Then Italy lose the SF to Wales and the Bronze Final to England. And then NZ win the Cup.

 

[Brigantine]

As long as the USA finishes ahead of our rival Canada, I'm good.

I thought that was an interesting question and consulted my spreadsheet...

27.8% of the time, USA get a higher position in Pool C than Canada get in Pool B
21.7% of the time they are in the same position, but USA have more table points
11.8% of the time, they are even on table points too, and USA win on PD
0.3% of the time, they are even on Pool position and table points, and Canada win on PD
7.5% of the time they are in the same position, and Canada have more table points
30.9% of the time, Canada get a higher position in Pool B than USA get in Pool C

It's actually pretty competitive on that score.
Canada have an easy game against Namibia, but far more difficulty in their other games earning BPs and keeping their PDs respectable.

 

[The Seeker]

I thought that was an interesting question and consulted my spreadsheet...

27.8% of the time, USA get a higher position in Pool C than Canada get in Pool B
21.7% of the time they are in the same position, but USA have more table points
11.8% of the time, they are even on table points too, and USA win on PD
0.3% of the time, they are even on Pool position and table points, and Canada win on PD
7.5% of the time they are in the same position, and Canada have more table points
30.9% of the time, Canada get a higher position in Pool B than USA get in Pool C

It's actually pretty competitive on that score.
Canada have an easy game against Namibia, but far more difficulty in their other games earning BPs and keeping their PDs respectable.

Nice job with the research. Thanks!

 

[Brigantine]

Now that the Six Nations is finished, there is little opportunity for these projections to change before the RWC.

Trying to compile what RP-influencing games still remain for RWC teams before the opening match.
There's actually quite a few, so the rankings and projections can still change after all, especially for 6N teams and Pacific 6N teams.

As far as I can tell:

~July: Not organized yet, but Namibia will be in the Africa Gold Cup pool matches vs Zimbabwe/Tunisia/Zambia

July 27 - Aug 10: Pacific Nations Cup (3 matches each) - Fiji/Tonga/United States vs Japan/Samoa/Canada
Aug 10: Bledisloe Cup - Australia vs New Zealand

Aug 10 - Sep 7: European warm-up matches: (4 each for Wales/Ireland/England/Scotland/Italy, 3 for France, 2 for Georgia, 1 for Russia)

• Wales vs Ireland, England
• Ireland vs Wales, Italy
• England vs Wales, Ireland, Italy
  
• Scotland vs France, Georgia
  
• France vs Scotland, Italy
  
• Georgia vs Scotland
  
• Italy vs Russia

Sep 6 - 7: Other warm-up matches:

• New Zealand vs Tonga
  
• Australia vs Samoa
  
• Japan vs South Africa

And nothing for Argentina or Uruguay

For reference, the World Cup starts Sep 20.

 

[Brigantine]

Plus in June: Nations Cup in Uruguay with Russia and Namibia

 

[TTurtle]

I'm sorry everyone but I ran this through my super computer rugby simulator and it showed that it will most likely wind up being like this.

Pool A
1. Scotland
2. Ireland
3.Japan

Pool B
1. NZ
2. South Africa
3. coin toss (Italy)

Pool C
1. Argentina
2. England
3. France

Pool D
1. Australia
2. Fiji
3. Wales

QF
NZ over Ireland
RSA over Scotland
England over Australia
Fiji over Argentina (yes Fiji, you'll see)

SF
England over RSA
NZ over Fiji (nice run Fiji maybe some homegrown players stay and a mini dynasty starts)
Bronze

Gold
NZ 45-32 England (3 in a row for the ABs!!!)

I know it might be a tough pill to swallow for some of you but I really think this is going to be a break out year for Fiji but NZ is just too strong and too deep to beat on the pitch for 80 minutes. Im relatively new to World Cup level competitions but there's maybe 3 teams (England, Australia, Ireland) I think have an actual shot of beating NZ in a single matchup if something catastrophic happened like an SBW red card in minute 20 or Beauden Barrett forgets his shoes and has to play barefoot then maybe they got a shot in a single match. I'm sorry but if the best the British Isles can muster is a drawn series in over a 100 years of playing in a combined effort. How do any of you expect to beat them at 1/4 strength? Its an All Black world were just living in it!

 

[big ginger 8]

To be honest I'd probably expect to beat them using similar methods to our two recent victories at 1/4 strength.

 

[ncurd]

Fiji to beat Argentina but Argentina to top their group against eventual finalists England?

Wales third in their group? Look I don't like Wales but I'd be very surprised by that.

Scotland topping a group against Ireland?

You think Australia having even a smidgen of a chance with recent form?

I wouldn't be surprised if NZ won although I'd say they were one 5 teams with potential to win (others being England, Wales, Ireland and SA not that order) and I think its far closer than most NZders would care to admit.