Brigantine
Bench Player
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2016
- Messages
- 891
- Country Flag
- Club or Nation
Nothing changed until the ARC / 6 Nations started up again. And then I watched Belgium vs Germany and it was so painful it took me a while to recover I wrote off Germany once their money ran out (and ran to Paris), but I was hoping they might at least avoid relegation.I see you think you can come swanning back in here just because the Sunwolves won a game.
Exactly thatNot quite getting the Competitive Pool Results. It means France have a 96% chance of finishing 4th or higher in their pool?
I checked... Italy is the only team this RWC that doesn't matter. Bad luck!
But here are the stats:
Chance of finishing below Canada and Namibia: 0.1%.
Between Canada and Namibia: 2.2%.
Following the script and finishing 3rd in pool: 96.5%. As a bet, this would pay 3c (less any margin the bookies take)
Actually qualifying for a QF: 1.4%.
Finishing ahead of NZ in group: <does not happen once in 10,000 scenarios>.
Winning a QF: <In 10,000 scenarios, this happens exactly once>.
Here's how that one scenario goes:
Italy play as though they were at 77.87 RP (+5.12 - 1 chance in 300), South Africa play as though they were at 82.96 RP (-1.62 - 1 chance in 7)
Italy narrowly beat South Africa in pool (1 chance in 4 - after the RP adjustments). Scotland top Pool A (1 chance in 33) on BPs after Japan beat Ireland.
Italy beat Scotland in the QF (1 chance in 2.5 - after RP adjustment to Italy) in regular time, by about 5 points.
In the Semis normal programming resumes. Italy lose to Australia by ~35, and in the Bronze final face England and get destroyed. Then NZ win the cup.
I trust that managed to make you feel better, Brucey
If you could get good odds on Australia topping their group that is the one I'd opt for. It stands out to me due to the likely temperatures. I think all the Oz stats are less generous than what the reality will be.
Yes, well. It's a fair assumption that Wales is currently flattered by the rankings and Australia the opposite. And a few RP makes a big difference.
I'll do a test...
If I give Australia a 3 RP bonus, then the probabilities come to...
At least 2nd in pool 91%, 1st in pool 33%, reach SF 53%, Champion 4.0%, (runner up 11%, 3rd place 14%)
Taking Wales down 3 RP as well...
At least 2nd in pool 93% (Wales 92%, Fiji 14%, Georgia 1%), 1st in pool 49% (Wales 48%, Fiji 3%), reach SF 60%, Champion 4.5% (NZ 55%, Wales 4.5%), (runner up 13%, 3rd place 19%)
If those odds sound more realistic to you... well that's a reasonable thing to believe. But I wouldn't go any higher than that.
There's a good table for the 2018 FIFA cup here. Scroll to just below the table and select Forecast From: before tournament.Compared to the openness of, for example, the Football World Cup.
Soccer seems to have about 3x as many countries at each level.
NZ's chances in Rugby are like Brazil, Spain and Germany combined.
Ireland's are like France, Argentina and Belgium combined.
Wales' are like England and Portugal combined, then
England's chances at Rugby are like Croatia, Colombia, Uruguay and Switzerland combined