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Rugby World Cup 2019 predictions

mania said:
or a rugby championship without the WBs, which is a very foreseeable prospect unless aus get their sht togther
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Rugby Championship? doubt it. We might follow the bokke out of Super Rugby though. The Jaguares experiment has been a failure as well.
 
Derpus said:
Rugby Championship? doubt it. We might follow the bokke out of Super Rugby though. The Jaguares experiment has been a failure as well.
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jaguares are doing way better than the force and rebels did in their infant years. sunwolvers and jaguares actually won games in their first seasons. it was about the 3rd season that rebels won anything,
wolves beat an NZ team before reaching 40+ games unlike all of the aus conference
losing aus is not a loss to super. in fact aus is really bringing down the quality of play and bring nothing really to the table. i doubt any aus teams would be wanted in europe.
boks would be a massive loss. theyre usually the hardest team ABs get to play over a 100 years of rugby.
WBs are just a speed bump at the moment.
 
Firstly, Super Rugby is off-topic in this thread.

Secondly, "losing aus is not a loss to super" is at best a massive exaggeration. You could make the case that Super Rugby would survive without Australia, but not that it would be an equally marketable product.

Thirdly, Australia is 4 places above South Africa in the rankings, and the rankings don't lie ;)
 
Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week.

Grand Final Scenarios:

Most likely a New Zealand vs Ireland final, but New Zealand's opponent could also be Wales, Australia or South Africa. (81% chance it will be NZ vs one of those four)

A 20% chance Wales and Australia will meet again in the bronze final, and a 2.5% chance they meet in the final.

  • Scn 1 (37% +8 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 26% +2)
  • Scn 2 (14% -7 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 12% -3)
  • Scn 3 (15% +4.0 Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% +3)
  • Scn 4 (12% +1 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 8.5% +3.5)
    • Scn 13 (1.6% +0.8 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 14% -3)
  • Scn 5 (1.6% -2.9 Chance) - New Zealand > Scotland (Chance of Upset: 3.5% -3.5)
  • Scn 6 (2.0% -0.2 Chance) - New Zealand > England (Chance of Upset: 4.5% -1.5)
    • Scn 14 (0.6% NC Chance) - England < New Zealand (Chance of England win: 17% -5)
  • Scn 7 (1.4% -0.2 Chance) - England < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 68% +11)
  • Scn 8 (0.5% -0.9 Chance) - England < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 61% +7)
  • Scn 9 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Australia = Wales (Chance of Wales win: 50% +11)
    • Scn 10 (1.2% -0.2 Chance) - Wales > Australia (Chance of Wales win: 63% +14)
  • Scn 11 (1.2% +0.2 Chance) - Australia < Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 66% +6)
    • Scn 12 (0.3% -0.7 Chance) - Ireland < Australia (Chance of Australia win: 37% -14)
  • Scn 15 (1.2% Chance) - Wales > Ireland (Chance of Ireland win: 61%)
    • Scn 17 (0.4% Chance) - Ireland > Wales (Chance of Upset: 31%)
  • Scn 16 (1.0% Chance) - New Zealand > France (Chance of Upset: 0%)
Potential World Champions:

Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion.

New Zealand - 72% NC Chance (and for runner-up 15% +2)
Ireland - 14% +3 Chance (runner-up 29% +4)
Wales - 5.0% +1.0 Chance (runner-up 16% +3)
Australia - 4.5% -3.0 Chance (runner-up 16% -6)
South Africa - 2.5% +0.7 Chance (runner-up 14% +1)
England - 1.6% -1.4 Chance (runner-up 4.5% -1.0)
Scotland - 0.3% -0.9 Chance (runner-up 2.5% -4.0)

And only a <0.1% -0.1 Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% -0.1), but a 1.8% -1.0 chance the runner-up will be France (1.2% -0.4), Argentina (0.3% -0.3), Fiji (0.3% NC) or Japan (0.1% -0.2).

Pool Results:

Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:
  1. Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, Japan 0.6%
  2. Ireland 99.4%, Scotland 77%, Japan 23%, Samoa <0.1%
  3. Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.8%, Japan 94.0%, Samoa 5.5%, Russia 0.6%
Pool B:
  1. New Zealand 93.5%, South Africa 6.5%
  2. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 98.8%, Italy 1.2%
  3. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.5%, Namibia 0.2%, Samoa <0.1%
Pool C:
  1. England 79%, France 16%, Argentina 5.0%, Tonga 0.2%, USA <0.1%
  2. England 96.5%, France 65%, Argentina 32%, Tonga 4.0%, USA 2.5%
  3. England 99.8%, France 90.5%, Argentina 76%, Tonga 19%, USA 15%
Pool D:
  1. Wales 50%, Australia 47%, Fiji 3.0%, Georgia 0.1%
  2. Wales 92.5%, Australia 91.5%, Fiji 15%, Georgia 1.2%
  3. Wales 99.6%, Australia 99.5%, Fiji 77%, Georgia 24%, Uruguay 0.2%
 
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I'd be surprised if we weren't favourites but I wouldn't be annoyed one bit if we weren't. The favourites tag is just a target on your back and with that, the opposition lifts their performance like each player just downed a whole 30 serve of pre-workout.

A strong squad will win the RWC. Depth is important and beneficial in more ways than one. The RWC is a tournament where the teams are getting stronger and injuries are inevitable.

Personally, Im not overly confident we'll win it. I think we have better overall skill and team chemistry compared to the other teams but it's always those close grinds that brings us level with our opposition. Whilst we've won plenty of those tight games, I'm never 100% confident we'll pull through.

A good example to support all I've said is the last world cup where the Boks were upset by an improved Japanese side but then fielded their best side in the semis to give us our closest game.

You got to play the tournament well and with a good squad.
 
Ireland have to get over their mental hurdle of getting past the QF before I consider them as realistic contenders. They could face the winners of Pool a a NZ or SA assuming they top pool A. Not an easy QF to get through. Personally would not be surprised if it's another NZ v SA final if SA can keep improving and sustain their form.
 
For each team, based on the same model:​
  • What an excellent result would look like (1st percentile)
  • A good result (20th percentile)
  • A bad result (80th percentile)
  • A terrible result (99th percentile)
In order of current WR Rankings:
  1. New Zealand
    • Win the cup
    • Win the cup
    • 2nd place - Lose the final to Ireland (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • Lose QF to Ireland (after losing to South Africa in Pool and coming 2nd with 15 points)
  2. Ireland
    • Win the cup
    • 2nd place - Lose the final to New Zealand (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • Lose the QF to South Africa (after topping the Pool with 19 points)
    • Lose QF to New Zealand (after losing to Scotland in Pool and coming 2nd with 15 points)
  3. Wales
    • Win the cup (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • 2nd place - Top the Pool with 19 points, meet Australia again in the final and lose
    • Lose QF to France (after losing to Australia in Pool and coming 2nd with 15 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (lose to Fiji)
  4. Australia
    • Win the cup (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • 2nd place - Top the Pool with 19 points, lose the final to England
    • Lose QF to England (after losing to Wales in Pool and coming 2nd with 15 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (lose to Fiji)
  5. South Africa
    • Win the cup (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • 3rd place - Lose to New Zealand in Pool, finish 2nd with 15 points, beat Ireland in QF, lose SF to Wales, beat Australia in bronze final
    • Lose QF to Ireland (after losing to New Zealand in Pool and finishing 2nd with 15 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 12 points (lose narrowly to New Zealand and Italy)
  6. England
    • Win the cup (after topping the Pool with 20 points)
    • 3rd place - Top the Pool with 20 points, beat Australia in QF, lose SF to New Zealand, beat Wales in bronze final
    • Lose QF to Wales (after losing to France in Pool and coming 2nd with 16 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 11 points (lose to France and Argentina)
  7. Scotland
    • 2nd place - Top the Pool with 20 points, lose the final to New Zealand
    • Lose QF to New Zealand (after losing to Ireland in Pool and finishing 2nd with 15 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 12 points (lose narrowly to Ireland and Japan)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (lose to Japan)
  8. France
    • 2nd place - Top the Pool with 19 points, beat Australia in QF and South Africa in SF, lose the final to New Zealand
    • Lose QF to Wales (after narrowly topping Pool with 14 points, beating England and losing to Argentina)
    • 3rd in Pool with 9 points (lose to England and Argentina, no BP vs Tonga)
    • Last in Pool with 2 points (lose to Tonga and USA)
  9. Fiji
    • 3rd place - Top Pool with 18 points, beat France in QF, lose to Ireland in SF, beat Australia in bronze final
    • 3rd in Pool with 12 points (draw with Australia)
    • 4th in Pool with 7 points (lose to Australia, lose narrowly to Wales and Georgia, beat Uruguay)
    • 4th in Pool with 5 points (lose to Georgia)
  10. Argentina
    • 4th place - Come 2nd in Pool (lose to England), beat Wales in QF, lose SF to Ireland, lose bronze final to New Zealand
    • Lose QF to Australia (after coming 2nd in Pool with 15 points - losing to England, beating France)
    • 4th in Pool with 10 points (beat France, lose to Tonga, finish behind both)
    • Last in Pool with 4 points (lose narrowly to France and USA, draw with Tonga)
  11. Japan
    • Lose QF to New Zealand (after beating Scotland in Pool and coming 2nd with 15 points)
    • Lose QF to South Africa (after narrowly beating Scotland in Pool and coming 2nd with 14 points)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (beating Samoa and Russia)
    • 4th in Pool with 5 points (losing to Samoa, beating Russia)
  12. Georgia
    • Lose QF to France (2nd in Pool with 13 points - narrowly beat Australia and Fiji)
    • 3rd in Pool with 9 points (narrowly beat Fiji)
    • 4th in Pool with 5 points (lose to Fiji, beat Uruguay)
    • Last in Pool with no table points (lose to Uruguay by ~8)
  13. Italy
    • Lose QF to Ireland (2nd in Pool with 14 points - narrowly beat South Africa)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (BP wins vs Hong Kong and Namibia)
    • 3rd in Pool with 10 points (BP wins vs Canada and Kenya)
    • 4th in Pool with 6 points (lose narrowly to Hong Kong)
  14. Tonga
    • Lose QF to Wales (after narrowly beating France and Argentina in Pool and coming 2nd with 13 points)
    • 4th in Pool with 8 points (narrow wins vs Argentina and USA, Argentina beats France)
    • Last in Pool with 1 point (narrowly lose to USA)
    • Last in Pool with no table points (lose to USA)
  15. USA
    • Lose QF to Wales (after narrowly beating France and Argentina, beating Tonga, coming 2nd in Pool with 13 points)
    • 4th in Pool with 6 points (beating Tonga, narrowly losing to Argentina)
    • Last in Pool with 1 point (losing to Tonga by ~7)
    • Last in Pool with no table points (lose to Tonga)
  16. Romania
    • Did not qualify
  17. Samoa
    • 3rd in Pool A with 9 points (beat Japan and Russia)
    • 4th in Pool A with 5 points (beat Russia)
    • Last in Pool A with 1 point (lose narrowly to Russia)
    • Last in Pool A with no table points (lose to Russia)
  18. Uruguay
    • 4th in Pool with 5 points (beat Georgia)
    • Last in Pool with no table points (lose to Georgia by ~9)
    • Lose heavily
    • Lose heavily
  19. Russia
    • 4th in Pool with 5 points (BP win vs Samoa)
    • 4th in Pool with 4 points (beating Samoa)
    • Last in Pool with no table points (losing to Samoa by ~10)
    • Lose heavily
  20. Spain
    • Did not qualify
  21. Hong Kong
    • 4th in Pool B with 5 points (BP win vs Namibia)
    • 4th in Pool B with 4 points (beating Kenya)
    • DNQ (3rd in Repechage Tournament, losing to Canada and Namibia, beating Germany)
    • DNQ (4th in Repechage Tournament, losing to Kenya and Germany)
  22. Canada
    • 4th in Pool B with 5 points (BP win vs Namibia)
    • 4th in Pool B with 4 points (beating Kenya)
    • DNQ (3rd in Repechage Tournament, losing to Hong Kong and Namibia, beating Germany)
    • DNQ (4th in Repechage Tournament, losing to Kenya and Germany)
  23. Portugal
    • Did not qualify
  24. Namibia
    • 4th in Pool B with 5 points (BP win vs Hong Kong)
    • 4th in Pool B with 4 points (beating Canada)
    • Last in Pool B with no table points (losing to Kenya)
    • DNQ (3rd in African qualifying, losing to Kenya and Morocco)
  • Kenya (28)
    • 4th in Pool B (beating Hong Kong)
    • 5th in Pool B (losing to Namibia)
    • DNQ (Last in Repechage Tournament, losing to Germany)
    • DNQ (4th in African qualifying, losing to Uganda and Morocco)
  • Germany (29)
    • 4th in Pool B (beating Namibia)
    • DNQ (2nd in Repechage Tournament, losing to Hong Kong, beating Canada and Kenya)
    • DNQ (Last in Repechage Tournament, losing to Kenya)
    • DNQ (Last in Repechage Tournament, losing to Morocco)
 
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Updated. Changes are +/- compared with the same model last week.

Grand Final Scenarios:

Looking increasingly like a New Zealand vs Ireland final.
  • Scn 1 (48% +11 Chance) - New Zealand > Ireland (Chance of Upset: 32% +6)
  • Scn 2 (8.5% -5.5 Chance) - New Zealand > Australia (Chance of Upset: 8.5% -3.5)
  • Scn 3 (15% NC Chance) - New Zealand > Wales (Chance of Upset: 14% NC)
  • Scn 4 (7% -5.0 Chance) - New Zealand > South Africa (Chance of Upset: 3.5% -5.0)
    • Scn 13 (0.5% -1.1 Chance) - South Africa < New Zealand (Chance of South Africa win: 15% +1)
Potential World Champions:

Ireland are establishing themselves as a serious competitor to New Zealand.

New Zealand - 66% -6 Chance (and for runner-up 19% +4)
Ireland - 22% +8 Chance (runner-up 35% +6)
Wales - 5.0% NC Chance (runner-up 16% NC)
England - 3.0% +1.4 Chance (runner-up 5.5% +1.0)
Australia - 2.2% -2.3 Chance (runner-up 10% -6)
South Africa - 1.0% -1.5 Chance (runner-up 8.5% -5.5)
Scotland - 0.6% +0.3 Chance (runner-up 4.0% +1.5)

And only a 0.1% Chance for anyone else to win (France 0.1%), but a 1.4% -0.4 chance the runner-up will be France (1.2% NC), Argentina (0.1% -0.2), Fiji (0.1% -0.2) or Japan (0.1% NC).
 
right my world cup predictions:
Pool A:
Qualifiers: Ireland and Scotland
Pool B:
Qualifiers: New Zealand and South Africa
Pool C:
Qualifiers: England and France
Pool D:
Qualifiers: Australia and Wales

Quarter-Finals:
Ireland v South Africa - 23-26
New Zealand v Scotland - 37-20
Australia v France - 33-29
England v Wales - 16-23 - unfortunately

Semi-Finals:
NZ v Wales - NZ
Australia v Ireland - Ireland

Final:
Ireland v New Zealand - 17-43.
 
Potential World Champions:

Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion.

New Zealand - 56% -10 Chance (and for runner-up 22% +3)
Ireland - 27% +5 Chance (runner-up 31% -4)
Wales - 7.0% +2.0 Chance (runner-up 17% +1)
England - 5.5% +2.5 Chance (runner-up 9.0% +3.5)
South Africa - 1.8% +0.8 Chance (runner-up 9.0% +0.5)
Scotland - 1.2% +0.6 Chance (runner-up 5.0% +1.0)
Australia - 1.2% -1.0 Chance (runner-up 5.0% -5.0)

And only a 0.2% +0.2 Chance for anyone else to win (France <0.1% NC, Argentina <0.1% +0.1), but a 2.2% +0.4 chance the runner-up will be France (1.0% -0.2), Argentina (1.0% +0.7), Fiji (0.1% -0.2) or Japan (0.1% NC).

Pool Results:

Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:
  1. Ireland 87%, Scotland 13%, Japan 0.6%
  2. Ireland 99.4%, Scotland 77%, Japan 23%, Samoa 0% -<0.1
  3. Ireland 100%, Scotland >99.9% +0.2, Japan 96.5% +2.5, Samoa 3.5% -2.0, Russia 0.2% -0.4
Pool B:
  1. New Zealand 93.0% -0.5, South Africa 7.0% +0.5
  2. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 97.0% -1.8, Italy 3.0% +1.8
  3. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 98.8%, Hong Kong 0.5%, Canada 0.4% -0.1, Namibia 0.3% +0.1
Pool C:
  1. England 81% +2, France 9.5% -6.5, Argentina 9.0% +4.0, Tonga 0.3% +0.1, USA 0% -<0.1
  2. England 96.5%, France 49% -16, Argentina 46% +14, Tonga 6.5% +2.5, USA 1.6% -0.9
  3. England 99.8%, France 83% -7, Argentina 83% +7, Tonga 24% +5, USA 9.5% -5.5
Pool D:
  1. Wales 70% +20, Australia 28% -19, Fiji 1.6% -1.4, Georgia 0.1%
  2. Wales 97.0% +4.5, Australia 85% -6, Fiji 15%, Georgia 2.5% +1.3
  3. Wales 99.9% +0.3, Australia 98.2% -1.3, Fiji 72% -5, Georgia 29% +5, Uruguay 0.6% +0.4

Chance to knock NZ out:

In Pool - 0% (but 7.0% chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)
In Quarterfinal - Ireland 6.0%, Scotland 4.0%
In Semifinal - England 8.0%, Wales 2.5%, Australia 1.0%, Argentina <0.1%, France <0.1%, Fiji <0.1%
In Final - Ireland 17%, Wales 3.5%, South Africa 0.8%, England 0.3%, Australia 0.3%, Scotland 0.2%
 
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marianodan said:
A
.....
Final
Wales beats England
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Oh dear!
I've just had a commotion in my undercrackers.
There would be a 5 week national holiday in Wales if that happened, the Welsh Catholic Bishops would vote Gats for Pope and Pobwl y cwm would win ALL the f*****g BAFTAs.
1.5 million Welshmen would be blind drunk 'til the following 6N's (the girls are ****** all the time anyway).
 
Potential World Champions:

Ireland are establishing themselves as the main competitor to New Zealand. Wales makes more ground too. It's starting to look realistic we might see a new first time champion.

New Zealand - 64% +8 Chance (and for runner-up 20% -2)
Ireland - 22% -5 Chance (runner-up 33% +2)
Wales - 7.5% +0.5 Chance (runner-up 21% +4)
England - 3.5% -2.0 Chance (runner-up 6.5% -2.5)
South Africa - 1.6% -0.2 Chance (runner-up 10% +1)
Australia - 0.7% -0.5 Chance (runner-up 5.0% NC)
Scotland - 0.6% -0.6 Chance (runner-up 3.5% -1.5)

And only a 0% -0.2 Chance for anyone else to win, but a 1.2% -1.0 chance the runner-up will be France (0.4% -0.6), Argentina (0.6% -0.4), Fiji (<0.1% -0.1) or Japan (0.1% NC).

Chance of making the Semis:

93.5% - New Zealand
78% - Wales
73% - Ireland
61% - England
41% - Australia
24% - South Africa
9.0% - Scotland
9.0% - France
8.0% - Argentina
2.5% - Fiji
1.0% - Other (Tonga 0.5%, Japan 0.4%, Georgia 0.1%, USA 0.1%, Italy <0.1%)

Pool Results:

Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:
  1. Ireland 88% +1, Scotland 11% -2, Japan 0.6% NC
  2. Ireland 99.5% +0.1, Scotland 76% -1, Japan 24% +1
  3. Ireland 100%, Scotland >99.9%, Japan 96.5%, Samoa 3.5%, Russia 0.3% +0.1
Pool B:
  1. New Zealand 94.5% +1.5, South Africa 5.5% -1.5
  2. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 96.5% -0.5, Italy 3.5% +0.5
  3. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 99.4% +0.8, Canada 0.6% +0.2, Namibia 0.1% -0.2, Hong Kong 0% -0.5%
Pool C:
  1. England 86% +5, France 6.5% -3.0, Argentina 6.5% -2.5, Tonga 0.4% +0.1, USA <0.1%
  2. England 97.8% +1.3, France 46% -3, Argentina 43% -3, Tonga 9.5% +3.0, USA 4.0% +2.5
  3. England 99.8%, France 78% -5, Argentina 77% -6, Tonga 29% +5, USA 16% +6.5
Pool D:
  1. Wales 73% +3, Australia 25% -3, Fiji 1.2% -0.4, Georgia 0% -0.1
  2. Wales 98.2% +1.2, Australia 86%, Fiji 15%, Georgia 1.6% -0.9
  3. Wales 100% +0.1, Australia 98.8% +0.6, Fiji 75% +3, Georgia 25% -4, Uruguay 0.8% +0.2

Chance to knock NZ out:

In Pool - 0% (but 5.5% -1.5 chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)
In Quarterfinal - Ireland 4.5% -1.5, Scotland 2.0% -2.0
In Semifinal - England 6.0% -2.0, Wales 2.5% NC, Australia 0.6% -0.4
In Final - Ireland 15% -2, Wales 4.0% +0.5, South Africa 0.8%, England 0.2% -0.1, Australia 0.1% -0.2, Scotland 0.1% -0.1
 
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Changes from this weekend's results.

New Zealand's grip on the RWC is loosest it's been in a long time - down to 53% favourites now.

The Pool of Death is becoming crazy - Every single team has at least a 7% chance of progressing, and only England is safe.

Qualification is now down to Canada vs Hong Kong, with Canada's chances at 93%.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 53% -11 Chance (and for runner-up 25% +5)
Ireland - 30% +8 Chance (runner-up 29% -4)
Wales - 8.0% +0.5 Chance (runner-up 17% -4)
England - 4.0% +0.5 Chance (runner-up 9.0% +2.5)
South Africa - 3.5% +1.9 Chance (runner-up 11% +1)
Australia - 1.4% +0.7 Chance (runner-up 6.0% +1.0)
Scotland - 0.3% -0.3 Chance (runner-up 2.2% -1.3)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.2% NC chance the runner-up will be France (0.8% +0.4), Argentina (0.2% -0.4), Japan (0.2% +0.1) or Fiji (<0.1% NC).

Chance of making the Semis:

90.5% -3.0 - New Zealand
76% -2 - Wales
74% +1 - Ireland
58% -3 - England
45% +4 - Australia
28% +4 - South Africa
13% +4 - France
6.5% -2.5 - Scotland
4.0% -4.0 - Argentina
2.2% -0.3 - Fiji
1.6% +0.6 - Other (Japan 0.8% +0.4, Tonga 0.4% -0.1, USA 0.3% +0.2, Georgia 0.2% +0.1)

Pool Results:

Pool A Chance to place in the top N Places:
  1. Ireland 95% +7, Scotland 4.5% -6.5, Japan 0.3% -0.3
  2. Ireland 99.9% +0.4, Scotland 69% -7, Japan 31% +7, Samoa <0.1%
  3. Ireland 100%, Scotland 99.7% -0.3, Japan 96.5%, Samoa 3.5%, Russia 0.3%
Pool B:
  1. New Zealand 86% -8.5, South Africa 14% +8.5
  2. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 99.0% +2.5, Italy 1.0% -2.5
  3. New Zealand 100%, South Africa 100%, Italy 97.5% -1.9, Canada 2.5% +1.9, Namibia 0.2% +0.1, Hong Kong <0.1%
Pool C:
  1. England 86% NC, France 10% +3.5, Argentina 3.5% -3.0, Tonga 0.4% NC, USA 0.3% +0.2
  2. England 97.8% NC, France 59% +13, Argentina 28% -15, Tonga 8.5% -1.0, USA 7.0% +3.0
  3. England 99.7% -0.1, France 83% +5, Argentina 64% -13, Tonga 28% -1, USA 25% +9
Pool D:
  1. Wales 70% -3, Australia 29% +4, Fiji 1.0% -0.2, Georgia <0.1%
  2. Wales 98.2% NC, Australia 88% +2, Fiji 12% -3, Georgia 1.6% NC
  3. Wales 100% +0.1, Australia 99.0% +0.2, Fiji 74% -1, Georgia 27% +1, Uruguay 1.0% +0.2

Chance to knock NZ out:

In Pool - 0% (but 14% +8 chance South Africa will beat New Zealand and both progress)
In Quarterfinal - Ireland 7.5% +3.0, Scotland 1.8% -0.2, Japan 0.1%
In Semifinal - England 7.0% +1.0, Wales 3.5% +1.0, Australia 1.8% +1.2, France <0.1%
In Final - Ireland 19% +4, Wales 3.5% -0.5, South Africa 1.6% +0.8, England 0.6% +0.4, Australia 0.4% +0.3, Scotland <0.1%
 
Now that there's some more movement in the rankings in Europe and America...

Ireland have lost some of their sparkle, Wales have a real chance and England are not far behind.

Potential World Champions:

New Zealand - 52% -1 Chance (and for runner-up 22% -3)
Ireland - 21% -9 Chance (runner-up 26% -3)
Wales - 14% +6 Chance (runner-up 24% +7)
England - 9.0% +5.0 Chance (runner-up 13% +4)
South Africa - 2.5% -1.0 Chance (runner-up 10% -1)
Australia - 0.8% -0.6 Chance (runner-up 3.5% -2.5)
Scotland - <0.1% -0.3 Chance (runner-up 0.6% -1.6)

And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.0% -0.2 chance the runner-up will be France (0.6% -0.2), Argentina (0.2% NC), Japan (0.2% NC) or Fiji (0.1% +0.1).

Chance of making the Semis:

94.5% +4.0 - New Zealand
85% +9 - Wales
72% -2 - Ireland
72% +14 - England
30% +2 - South Africa
29% -16 - Australia
8.0% -5 - France
3.0% -3.5 - Scotland
3.0% -1.0 - Argentina
3.0% +0.8 - Fiji
1.0% +0.2 - Japan
0.2% - Other (Tonga 0.1%, Georgia 0.1%)

Competitive Pool Results:

4th in Pool C: France 96%, Argentina 92%, Tonga 65%, USA 47%
4th in Pool B: Canada 56%, Namibia 44%
2nd in Pool C: France 57%, Argentina 33%, Tonga 7%, USA 3%
3rd in Pool C: France 85%, Argentina 73%, Tonga 27%, USA 16%
2nd in Pool A: Scotland 59%, Japan 41%
4th in Pool A: Samoa 71%, Russia 29%
3rd in Pool D: Australia 97%, Fiji 75%, Georgia 25%, Uruguay 3%
4th in Pool D: Fiji 96%, Georgia 80%, Uruguay 23%
2nd in Pool D: Australia 78%, Fiji 20%, Georgia 3%
1st in Pool D: Wales 82%, Australia 16%, Fiji 1%
 
I try not to put too much stock in these types of predictions. But if there is genuinely a 73% chance that the RWC is going to one of two teams, how uninspiring is that? Compared to the openness of, for example, the Football World Cup.
 
I've missed these head melting stats Brigantine. I see you think you can come swanning back in here just because the Sunwolves won a game. :p

Not quite getting the Competitve Pool Results. It means France have a 96% chance of finishing 4th or higher in their pool?

Glad to see you took my feedback onboard after posting Italy had a less than 1% chance of exiting their group. Now you have just erased them entirely from any conversation about the tournament because they are so superfluous. Living the Tier1 dream baby!

If you could get good odds on Australia topping their group that is the one I'd opt for. It stands out to me due to the likely temperatures. I think all the Oz stats are less generous than what the reality will be. Even overall victory. England too, despite their tough group and recent pedigree on that front. :p
 

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