Now that there's some more movement in the rankings in Europe and America...
Ireland have lost some of their sparkle, Wales have a real chance and England are not far behind.
Potential World Champions:
New Zealand - 52% -1 Chance (and for runner-up 22% -3)
Ireland - 21% -9 Chance (runner-up 26% -3)
Wales - 14% +6 Chance (runner-up 24% +7)
England - 9.0% +5.0 Chance (runner-up 13% +4)
South Africa - 2.5% -1.0 Chance (runner-up 10% -1)
Australia - 0.8% -0.6 Chance (runner-up 3.5% -2.5)
Scotland - <0.1% -0.3 Chance (runner-up 0.6% -1.6)
And only a <0.1% NC Chance for anyone else to win (France), but a 1.0% -0.2 chance the runner-up will be France (0.6% -0.2), Argentina (0.2% NC), Japan (0.2% NC) or Fiji (0.1% +0.1).
Chance of making the Semis:
94.5% +4.0 - New Zealand
85% +9 - Wales
72% -2 - Ireland
72% +14 - England
30% +2 - South Africa
29% -16 - Australia
8.0% -5 - France
3.0% -3.5 - Scotland
3.0% -1.0 - Argentina
3.0% +0.8 - Fiji
1.0% +0.2 - Japan
0.2% - Other (Tonga 0.1%, Georgia 0.1%)
Competitive Pool Results:
4th in Pool C: France 96%, Argentina 92%, Tonga 65%, USA 47%
4th in Pool B: Canada 56%, Namibia 44%
2nd in Pool C: France 57%, Argentina 33%, Tonga 7%, USA 3%
3rd in Pool C: France 85%, Argentina 73%, Tonga 27%, USA 16%
2nd in Pool A: Scotland 59%, Japan 41%
4th in Pool A: Samoa 71%, Russia 29%
3rd in Pool D: Australia 97%, Fiji 75%, Georgia 25%, Uruguay 3%
4th in Pool D: Fiji 96%, Georgia 80%, Uruguay 23%
2nd in Pool D: Australia 78%, Fiji 20%, Georgia 3%
1st in Pool D: Wales 82%, Australia 16%, Fiji 1%