Play-off predictions!

[TRF_stormer2010]

Yeah, though SA has solid set pieces our kicking game (without an on form Fourie du Preez) has been pot of late while opposition teams have adopted effective countermeasures and we've been found out too many times playing overly predictable rugby.

The 1995 and 2007 teams actually played some good rugby to mix it up with what we've come to see as our 'more traditional strengths'. Since PdV we've become overly dependant on those 'basics' and under HM we havn't *really* gone that far ahead of the PdV 'strategy'. Those 1995 and 2007 teams also had solid defences. We've been quite generous lately..

 

[TRF_heineken]

I honestly think this type of rugby won't win the world cup anymore, we've persisted with this type of rugby since 2007 and as far as I'm concerned it's gotten less and less effective. South African "forward dominance" hasn't applied for a while against the tougher NH teams and NZ, and a territorial game has been countered by teams picking a "secondary" fullback on one wing, and great fullbacks which punish kicking (Ben Smith, Folau, Kearney, Brown, Half-penny).

As for the Wallabies, I know my statements looked a bit counter intuitive, but A) I feel they are being underestimated and would like to see a few people proven wrong and B) smashing them in the quarters would be fitting revenge for 2011.

I don't think we'll use the Box kick as much... Especially aginst guys like Folau, Smith et al... But I do think that we'll use a more forward orientated approach and use our pack to get in attacking positions to score points.

But HM is a coach that learns from his mistakes and tries to adapt. Why else are there reports that guys like Jaco Kriel and Heinrich Brussouw will be in the RC squad?

 

[Regan]

There's only been 7 World Cups though. This point is such an unreliable stat given the limited number of cups. Sure if there'd been 20, 100 etc. then this point would look more like a given (as in NZ can't win WC's away from home). There's no doubting home advantage is an advantage but one thing people forget about is the flip side (when we've lost away from home). Out of the 5 WC's we've played away from home (and lost) 3 of them we lost to the hosts (1995 - SA, 03 - Aus, 07 - France). Out of the 3 countries that have won away from home (Eng, SA, Aus) England and Australia are the only teams to have beaten the host (both against each other in the final). SA won away from home in France but never had to play the hosts. 99 and 07 are the only years the host hasn't been involved in a final. So sure maybe not having hosting advantages may have made us weaker in 5 world cups but in 3 you could argue the other way around that the opposition was significantly advantaged themselves over us due to the home turf.

So given all this stat pulling I could say SA won't win this WC if they have to play England.....I do think this will be a good WC for NZ to finally put this crap the media loves to reproduce behind them.

You could also argue that 07 SA had one of the nicest runs to the final you could ask for.........Fiji in the quarters, Argentina in the Semis then a weakish English side in the final.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'm going to do something a wee bit different here, follow suit if you wish.

Teams capable of winning the RWC IMO are NZ, SA, ENG, AUS, IRE. (No particular order, sorry Wales)

Matching these teams up I see the likely results as this
NZ vs:
SA - 55% chance of winning
Eng - 70% chance of winning
Aus - 65% chance of winning
Ire - 90% chance of winning

SA vs:
Eng - 75% chance of winning
Aus - 50% chance of winning
Ire - 50% chance of winning

Eng vs:
Aus - 65% chance of winning
Ire - 45% chance of winning

Aus vs Ire - 40% chance of winning

I hope that makes sense!

This is reads as NZ being obvious favourites. With SA next along with Ireland if they don't meet NZ. Australia and England will require a couple of upsets to win the World Cup along with, like every other side a bit of luck. If all goes well SA will take care of NZ for us and we can troll NZ posters to oblivion being when they bring up that we're not real world champs because we've never beaten them!

Disclaimer: "Duuude, you said Aus and Wales will get out of their pool, how are England in with a chance?" I don't think a team will get through that group unbeaten and I see Wales as more likely to deny England a BP than Aus to them air Eng to Aus. If, however, England get through, they're hosts and are capable of beating any of those sides apart from the Saffas whereas Wales would be underdogs against all of those sides!

 

[ncurd]

Pool A

1.England
2.Australia
3.Wales
4.Fiji
5.Uruguay

Pool B

1.South Africa
2.Samoa
3.Scotland
4.Japan
5.United States

Pool C

1.New Zealand
2.Argentina
3.Tonga
4.Georgia
5.Namibia

Pool D

1.Ireland
2.France
3.Italy
4.Romania
5.Canada

Pool A Winners; England
Pool A Runners up; Australia

Pool B Winners; South Africa
Pool B Runners up; Samoa

Pool C Winners; New Zealand
Pool C Runners up; Argentina

Pool D Winners; Ireland
Pool D Runners up; France

Quarter-Finals

1. NZ vs France - NZ win

2. SA vs Australia - SA

3. Ire vs Argentina - Ireland

4.Eng vs Samoa - England

Semi-Finals

1. NZ vs SA - SA

2. Ire vs Eng - England

Final

SA vs Ire


1. SA win

 

[Kiwi_]

Right... That's fresh coming from a fan who's team has only won World Cups on home soil. Keep stirring the pot...

What I predict.

SA will have a more dominant Scrum than before, and we have mastered the idea of "Scrumming for Penalties" in Super Rugby. That, plus our rolling Maul and line-out will be a massive weapon in winning the trophy.

And I don't care if we win ugly, as long as we win. Bring on the penalties and dropped goals!! We have a tendancy to win a lot of world cup games that way... I won't even be mad if Morne Steyn starts in the knockout rounds...

We feel comfortable away from home lately, often taken to the wire but mentally finish off teams.

It's good to know people are underrating the mental toughness and fortitude of this current All Blacks side. 4 years of mental preparation under Hansen is paying off. It's good to see teams still reliant on a few examples in the past where we have "choked" and still put their faith into these cliches.

This All Black team will be unforgiving and will stick to their own game.

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Semi-Finals

1. NZ vs SA - SA

2. Ire vs Eng - England

Final

SA vs Ire


1. SA win

Sooo England win the semi final but because we are such nice sports we let the Irish take our place?

 

[SomeOke]

We feel comfortable away from home lately, often taken to the wire but mentally finish off teams.

It's good to know people are underrating the mental toughness and fortitude of this current All Blacks side. 4 years of mental preparation under Hansen is paying off. It's good to see teams still reliant on a few examples in the past where we have "choked" and still put their faith into these cliches.

This All Black team will be unforgiving and will stick to their own game.

Well your only losses in the last four years have been away from home, so it's fair to say you're more beatable away from home than at home, additionally you can't really argue that NZ has under performed in some past world cups, you've been the best team in many of them coming in but have only won 2/7. I guarantee you noone is underestimating the AB's most people outside of NZ expect them to win the WC, you seem to be taking offense at the very notion that the ABs can lose .

 

[Kiwi_]

Well your only losses in the last four years have been away from home, so it's fair to say you're more beatable away from home than at home, additionally you can't really argue that NZ has under performed in some past world cups, you've been the best team in many of them coming in but have only won 2/7. I guarantee you noone is underestimating the AB's most people outside of NZ expect them to win the WC, you seem to be taking offense at the very notion that the ABs can lose .

What gave you the impression offense was taken?

South Africa are even more beatable away from home was my point, we don't lose to sides like Ireland and Wales, anywhere.

 

[ncurd]

Sooo England win the semi final but because we are such nice sports we let the Irish take our place?

Yeah cockup when editing the post I meant Ireland win in the semi v England

 

[Car]

Pool A

1.England
2.Australia
3.Wales
4.Fiji
5.Uruguay

Pool B

1.South Africa
2.Samoa
3.Scotland
4.Japan
5.United States

Pool C

1.New Zealand
2.Argentina
3.Tonga
4.Georgia
5.Namibia

Pool D

1.Ireland
2.France
3.Italy
4.Romania
5.Canada

Pool A Winners; England
Pool A Runners up; Australia

Pool B Winners; South Africa
Pool B Runners up; Samoa

Pool C Winners; New Zealand
Pool C Runners up; Argentina

Pool D Winners; Ireland
Pool D Runners up; France

Quarter-Finals

1. Winner of Pool C [NZ] vs Runners up of Pool D [France] - NZ win

2. Winners of Pool B [SA] vs Runners up of Pool A [Australia] - Australia win

3. Winners of Pool D [Ire] vs Runners up of Pool C [Argentina] - Ireland win

4. Winners of Pool A [Eng] vs Runners up of Pool B [Samoa] - England win

Semi-Finals

1. [NZ] vs 2. [Australia] - NZ win

3. [Ire] vs 4. [Eng] - England win

Final

1. NZ vs 4. England


1. England win

 

[Maverick1987]

I think if NZ have to play France in the quarters which is more likely than anything that France will prevail again . France love to **** up NZs party lol

 

[Shaggy]

I think if NZ have to play France in the quarters which is more likely than anything that France will prevail again . France love to **** up NZs party lol

That's true, but I'm hoping that the All Blacks won't get suckered in by France this time. I expect that that game will be very competitive/close, and that France will throw everything at the ABs, but I just think the ABs will prevail, simply because it is France, it will be played in Cardiff, and it's happened before ... So to some up, I think France will lack the element of surprise factor, and the ABs won't be buying in to their own hype.

One thing I do like, is that it's not likely that any of the teams will throw any of their matches, although some of the weaker squads may still field not their strongest team against some of the favorites during pool play.

 

[michaelbolton]

Pool A

1.England
2.Wales
3.Australia
4.Fiji
5.Uruguay

Pool B

1.South Africa
2.Samoa
3.Scotland
4.Japan
5.United States

Pool C

1.New Zealand
2.Argentina
3.Tonga
4.Georgia
5.Namibia

Pool D

1.Ireland
2.France
3.Italy
4.Romania
5.Canada

Pool A Winners; England
Pool A Runners up; Wales

Pool B Winners; South Africa
Pool B Runners up; Samoa

Pool C Winners; New Zealand
Pool C Runners up; Argentina

Pool D Winners; Ireland
Pool D Runners up; France

Quarter-Finals

1. Winner of Pool C [NZ] vs Runners up of Pool D [France] - NZ win by 13 under

2. Winners of Pool B [SA] vs Runners up of Pool A [Wales] - SA win by 8 under

3. Winners of Pool D [Ire] vs Runners up of Pool C [Argentina] - Ireland win by 13 under

4. Winners of Pool A [Eng] vs Runners up of Pool B [Samoa] - England win by 13 over

Semi-Finals

1. [NZ] vs 2. [SA] - NZ win by 8 under

3. [Ire] vs 4. [Eng] - England win by 8 under

Final

1. NZ vs 4. England


1. NZ win

What are your predictions?

Also, can someone explain to me why the 2 highest seeded teams in the tournament have the potential to meet in the SF?

It should be seed 1 vs seed 4 and seed 2 vs seed 3.

This except I am not sure I see England beating Ireland, I would like to but I am not convinced. Our last performance, even with Goode being a pile of ****e, did not fill me with confidence

 

[chippieolamus]

This except I am not sure I see England beating Ireland, I would like to but I am not convinced. Our last performance, even with Goode being a pile of ****e, did not fill me with confidence

The big difference is that in this case we would be playing Ireland at home instead of in Dublin like then.

 

[bw245]

The big difference is that in this case we would be playing Ireland at home instead of in Dublin like then.

This!

It would be unbelievable if Ireland were to beat England on home soil, but it's unlikely.

 

[RedruthRFC]

This!

It would be unbelievable if Ireland were to beat England on home soil, but it's unlikely.

+1. IMO there is little to chose between the two sides (although Ireland comprehensively out thought and outplayed England last time out), so whoever is at home starts as favourite for me, not a massive favourite thought, say 70/30. I wonder if home advantage will be quite as significant in the WC, obviously it's an advantage to play in a stadium you're familiar with and obviously there will be a strong English contingent in the crowd, but given the number of neutrals in attendance, maybe it won't be the same pressure cooker kind of atmosphere that it is in the 6N.

Injuries to one side or another could easily skew the balance of power depending on the position they occur in and the quality of cover available.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I think if NZ have to play France in the quarters which is more likely than anything that France will prevail again . France love to **** up NZs party lol

Imagine if Craig Joubert were to be referee of this fixture again! The man would require balls of... an alloy not yet known to man.

 

[ZeroTwo]

You're all missing the really obvious result.

Japan are forced to withdraw from the World Cup due to a scandal involving whale harpooning, sumo wrestlers and wasabi. Hong Kong step up to take their place. First fixture: South Africa put a weakened side forwards and are tanked by the Hong Kong pack, totally dominating in the forwards but the result being a tight 3 point win. The rest of the group flows easily enough, asides for the United States who Hong Kong refuse to play against due to repeatedly having chinese take away orders shouted at them.

Into the finals, we have Australia. Since the large influx of Australians into Hong Kong in the 90s, many of them recognize each other. After discussing what a abomination taking the Lions to HK was before the Australia tour the Auzzies do the honourable thing and step aside.

New Zealand in the Semis is a tough affair. Hong Kong win yet again by insisting that England is AHEAD in the time zones rather than behind, causing all the Kiwis to miss the match completely.

And Ireland vs. Hong Kong final. The battle of the Ex-Colonies. Having spiked the Irish protein shakes with Chinese rice wine HK win by the narrowest of margins: 7-6.

If anyone disagrees that this is the obvious call, come at me.

 

[gaston le gaff]

At least someone has a sense of humour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!all you need is Bevan to ref it and Gold Rolexs all round

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At least someone has a sense of humour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!all you need is Bevan to ref it and Gold Rolexs all round