Play-off predictions!

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'm sorry but I just can't see SA getting past England (at home remember) and NZ.....especially considering they're not exactly playing rugby at their prime atm.

That same England that has not beaten SA since... I forget.. 2005 Google says and whom we just beat last year in England with a weakend squad. I suggest you not seeing it has more to do with your personal perceptions than reality or at least expected outcomes not that I am saying that it wouldn't/shouldn't be a close thing. Against NZ we seem to do well at neutral venues and RWCs and we have the last game in our favor at least up till we meet again so there are arguments to be made in our favor is all I'm saying.

SA are rubbish away from home lately.

SA lost in the RC 2014 by 1 point to Aussie away and 4 points to NZ away. Both could easily have gone the other way. The November internationals shouldn't be overly relied upon as we were fielding pretty much B teams. You can trust me we will be a lot more difficult to deal with than what that outing suggested.

Not a chance.....

Most bookies have us at 5/1. That is at least *A* chance!

***

I'm not saying SA will win. I am saying we are right in there with a chance and by my reckoning the 3rd best chance which is till a *REAL* chance.

 

[RedruthRFC]

Not a chance.....

If William Hill are to be believed (not that bookies often offer fair prices), there's a 33/1 chance of that final line up!

- - - Updated - - -

Most bookies have us at 5/1. That is at least *A* chance!

***

I'm not saying SA will win. I am saying we are right in there with a chance and by my reckoning the 3rd best chance which is till a *REAL* chance.

Great minds think alike, we're approaching this from the same angle. However gN10 wasn't saying "not a chance" to SA winning, he was saying "not a chance" to SA beating Wales in the final to lift the trophy. If you work out the price of the matches that Wales would have to win to end up in the final as an accumulator, I tend to agree.

 

[bw245]

Just praying Ireland don't bottle it.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Australia
Wales

South Africa
Samoa

NZ
Arg

Ireland
Italy

Aus beat Samoa
SA beat Wales
NZ beat Italy
Ireland beat Arg

Ireland beat Aus
SA v NZ - **** knows

**** knows win the World Cup.

#unpopularopinions

 

[gaston le gaff]

Hey everybody forgotten about France and the almighty PSA we must be in with a chance, the most World Cup Looooooosing finalists, we could even make it 4 and surprise evrybody including myself.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RedruthRFC]

I'm not sure anyone has forgotten France, with the exception of cmac95, everyone has them making the last eight, which reflects their place in the pecking order ATM IMO.

Again looking at the draw, I quite like France as outsiders to make the final. One upset against Ireland (and not a massive one at that) hands them an evens shot followed by a match in which they'll be smallish underdogs to make the final (sorry Italian fans, I can't see an Italian upset).

 

[goodNumber10]

Most bookies have us at 5/1. That is at least *A* chance!

***

I'm not saying SA will win. I am saying we are right in there with a chance and by my reckoning the 3rd best chance which is till a *REAL* chance.

No you misunderstand, there is no chance it will be a SA vs Wales Final.

I think SA will win the cup to be honest.

 

[TobesHodges]

Pool A

1.England
2.Australia
3.Wales
4.Fiji
5.Uruguay

Pool B

1.South Africa
2.United States
3.Samoa
4.Japan
5.Scotland

Pool C

1.New Zealand
2.Argentina
3.Tonga
4.Georgia
5.Namibia

Pool D

1.Ireland
2.France
3.Italy
4.Romania
5.Canada

Pool A Winners; England
Pool A Runners up; Australia

Pool B Winners; South Africa
Pool B Runners up; United States

Pool C Winners; New Zealand
Pool C Runners up; Argentina

Pool D Winners; Ireland
Pool D Runners up; France

Quarter-Finals

1. Winner of Pool C [NZ] vs Runners up of Pool D [France] - NZ win by 14

2. Winners of Pool B [SA] vs Runners up of Pool A [Australia] - South Africa win by 12

3. Winners of Pool D [Ire] vs Runners up of Pool C [Argentina] - Ireland win by 2

4. Winners of Pool A [England] vs Runners up of Pool B [United States] - England win by 24

Semi-Finals

1. [NZ] vs 2. [South Africa] - NZ win by 6

3. [IRE] vs 4. [England] - England win by 8

Final

1. NZ vs 4. England


4. England win




United States are my dark horses to get out of the Group.

 

[SomeOke]

I'd say an SA/NZ and Ire/Eng semi finals are extremely likely, after that anything can happen (although I suspect a NZ final is equally likely). I reckon NZ are the most likely to win, Ireland and England are equally likely in second place, and we have an outisde chance. I'd be very surprised indeed if anyone else wins. Historically it does seem like the best team going in to the tournament tends to win which implies it will be Ireland or NZ.

Things I'd like to see in this World Cup:
Argentina being competitive.
Australia leaving their pool.
Ireland to win if we can't (So we can see a new winner)
Damien de Allende playing at all.

Things that will make me suicidal:
SA getting beaten by Aus in the quarters due to a massive David Pocock performance.

 

[Regan]

That same England that has not beaten SA since... I forget.. 2005 Google says and whom we just beat last year in England with a weakend squad. I suggest you not seeing it has more to do with your personal perceptions than reality or at least expected outcomes not that I am saying that it wouldn't/shouldn't be a close thing. Against NZ we seem to do well at neutral venues and RWCs and we have the last game in our favor at least up till we meet again so there are arguments to be made in our favor is all I'm saying.



SA lost in the RC 2014 by 1 point to Aussie away and 4 points to NZ away. Both could easily have gone the other way. The November internationals shouldn't be overly relied upon as we were fielding pretty much B teams. You can trust me we will be a lot more difficult to deal with than what that outing suggested.




Most bookies have us at 5/1. That is at least *A* chance!

***

I'm not saying SA will win. I am saying we are right in there with a chance and by my reckoning the 3rd best chance which is till a *REAL* chance.

I'm not saying SA doesn't have a chance (I'd put them at 4th behind NZ, England and Ireland). What I am saying is, if your play off prediction is to be correct, I can't see SA beating England AND NZ. I don't doubt that on any given day SA may or may not be able to beat either of these teams but beating both given the other was won (England) is a whole another story. Basic probability really.

SA could win the cup, that possibility is reasonable but personally I have them at 4th best to do so atm and they'd need a better play off schedule to go their way than the one you suggested.

 

[FlukeArtist]

Here's a few predictions (not restricted to play-offs):

1. Rolling Mauls are going to be a massive cause of concern at the RWC. Specifically players joining (illegally) in front of the ball, and teams defending them.
2. Refereeing incompetence and lack of TMO use will again be a talking point and will cost at least one team a game.
3. The playoff rugby will once again be a poor advertisement for the sport, with plenty of mauling and penalty kicks as opposed to open running rugby and tries.
4. South Africa, England and Ireland will be the teams to beat,
5. Australia will surprise many.

 

[SomeOke]

I'm not saying SA doesn't have a chance (I'd put them at 4th behind NZ, England and Ireland). What I am saying is, if your play off prediction is to be correct, I can't see SA beating England AND NZ. I don't doubt that on any given day SA may or may not be able to beat either of these teams but beating both given the other was won (England) is a whole another story. Basic probability really.

SA could win the cup, that possibility is reasonable but personally I have them at 4th best to do so atm and they'd need a better play off schedule to go their way than the one you suggested.

Both you and Stormer are basically saying the same thing in a different way. No argument here, I don't understand what you mean by the bolded sentence however, presumably you mean that we might be able to manage an upset against one team, but the odds against beating both teams is remote.

Personally I'm happy to be the underdogs, it helps manage my own expectations. I do feel that should we beat NZ in the semi's it in no-way affects our chances of then beating England (should it actually be England) in the final, if anything its a huge confidence boost.

 

[Regan]

Both you and Stormer are basically saying the same thing in a different way. No argument here, I don't understand what you mean by the bolded sentence however, presumably you mean that we might be able to manage an upset against one team, but the odds against beating both teams is remote.

Personally I'm happy to be the underdogs, it helps manage my own expectations. I do feel that should we beat NZ in the semi's it in no-way affects our chances of then beating England (should it actually be England) in the final, if anything its a huge confidence boost.

Bingo.

Yeah if it so happens that you play us in the Semis and happen to win that one, then play England in the finals you'd probably be favourites to win with the only real disadvantage being home advantage to England. I do think that if you play England first however then even if you do get past them, I can't see you beating NZ. Other way around is probably a fairer chance. Personally not a team I'm predicting to win the whole thing (not yet at least) but stranger things have happened.

 

[Kiwi_]

SA lost in the RC 2014 by 1 point to Aussie away and 4 points to NZ away. Both could easily have gone the other way. The November internationals shouldn't be overly relied upon as we were fielding pretty much B teams. You can trust me we will be a lot more difficult to deal with than what that outing suggested.

Last time you beat the All Blacks at home was in 2009, when we considered Stephen Donald our #2 1st 5 and even France won a test series here, that's a long time ago.

South Africa are only their best at home.

 

[Regan]

Last time you beat the All Blacks at home was in 2009, when we considered Stephen Donald our #2 1st 5 and even France won a test series here, that's a long time ago.

South Africa are only their best at home.

Yeah 2009 was probably one of our weaker seasons in recent times.....10/15 games won.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I'd say an SA/NZ and Ire/Eng semi finals are extremely likely, after that anything can happen (although I suspect a NZ final is equally likely). I reckon NZ are the most likely to win, Ireland and England are equally likely in second place, and we have an outisde chance. I'd be very surprised indeed if anyone else wins. Historically it does seem like the best team going in to the tournament tends to win which implies it will be Ireland or NZ.

Things I'd like to see in this World Cup:
Argentina being competitive.
Australia leaving their pool.
Ireland to win if we can't (So we can see a new winner)
Damien de Allende playing at all.

Things that will make me suicidal:
SA getting beaten by Aus in the quarters due to a massive David Pocock performance.

You want Aussie to go through (probably as runners up asuming England takes the pool on home soil) but would be suicidal if we got Pococked again.. rather lets just hope for England and Wales to go through.. though oddly enough despite what the rankings say I'd feel more comfortable with us facing either England (even at home- is that arrogant?) or Aus than Wales again.

As for the others I am with you. De Allende to have a HUGE tournament, a competitive Argentina and Ireland to take it if it can't be us (keep it green!).

No you misunderstand, there is no chance it will be a SA vs Wales Final.

I think SA will win the cup to be honest.

Okay, I misread it. But going as far as saying SA are your favorites for the ***le!?! Let me temper that a bit as we don't want to go into this tournament as anyone's favorites!

We might see the following line-up for SA (we are likely to see at least SOME of these players);

3 Jannie du Plessis
5 Victor Matfield
8 Pierre Spies
9 Fourie du Preez
10 Morne Steyn
12 Jean de Villiers back after not playing ANY rugby in 2015
13 Jaque Fourie
14 JP Petersen
15 Willie le Roux 2014 version - a huge liability

No, this tourament is very much a year too early for SA. We MIGHT manage it with a bit of luck and/or a few players turning back the clock and/or a few newbies stepping up in a big way but I would certainly not see us as favorites.

Both you and Stormer are basically saying the same thing in a different way. No argument here, I don't understand what you mean by the bolded sentence however, presumably you mean that we might be able to manage an upset against one team, but the odds against beating both teams is remote.

Personally I'm happy to be the underdogs, it helps manage my own expectations. I do feel that should we beat NZ in the semi's it in no-way affects our chances of then beating England (should it actually be England) in the final, if anything its a huge confidence boost.

Which means we lose the next game by default? Or at least manage to get 20 points behind in the first 30 minutes..

 

[Maverick1987]

Last time you beat the All Blacks at home was in 2009, when we considered Stephen Donald our #2 1st 5 and even France won a test series here, that's a long time ago.

South Africa are only their best at home.

Good job the World Cup is in England then

 

[TRF_heineken]

Last time you beat the All Blacks at home was in 2009, when we considered Stephen Donald our #2 1st 5 and even France won a test series here, that's a long time ago.

South Africa are only their best at home.

Right... That's fresh coming from a fan who's team has only won World Cups on home soil. Keep stirring the pot...

What I predict.

SA will have a more dominant Scrum than before, and we have mastered the idea of "Scrumming for Penalties" in Super Rugby. That, plus our rolling Maul and line-out will be a massive weapon in winning the trophy.

And I don't care if we win ugly, as long as we win. Bring on the penalties and dropped goals!! We have a tendancy to win a lot of world cup games that way... I won't even be mad if Morne Steyn starts in the knockout rounds...

 

[SomeOke]

SA will have a more dominant Scrum than before, and we have mastered the idea of "Scrumming for Penalties" in Super Rugby. That, plus our rolling Maul and line-out will be a massive weapon in winning the trophy.

And I don't care if we win ugly, as long as we win. Bring on the penalties and dropped goals!! We have a tendancy to win a lot of world cup games that way... I won't even be mad if Morne Steyn starts in the knockout rounds...

I honestly think this type of rugby won't win the world cup anymore, we've persisted with this type of rugby since 2007 and as far as I'm concerned it's gotten less and less effective. South African "forward dominance" hasn't applied for a while against the tougher NH teams and NZ, and a territorial game has been countered by teams picking a "secondary" fullback on one wing, and great fullbacks which punish kicking (Ben Smith, Folau, Kearney, Brown, Half-penny).

As for the Wallabies, I know my statements looked a bit counter intuitive, but A) I feel they are being underestimated and would like to see a few people proven wrong and B) smashing them in the quarters would be fitting revenge for 2011.

 

[Regan]

Right... That's fresh coming from a fan who's team has only won World Cups on home soil. Keep stirring the pot...

There's only been 7 World Cups though. This point is such an unreliable stat given the limited number of cups. Sure if there'd been 20, 100 etc. then this point would look more like a given (as in NZ can't win WC's away from home). There's no doubting home advantage is an advantage but one thing people forget about is the flip side (when we've lost away from home). Out of the 5 WC's we've played away from home (and lost) 3 of them we lost to the hosts (1995 - SA, 03 - Aus, 07 - France). Out of the 3 countries that have won away from home (Eng, SA, Aus) England and Australia are the only teams to have beaten the host (both against each other in the final). SA won away from home in France but never had to play the hosts. 99 and 07 are the only years the host hasn't been involved in a final. So sure maybe not having hosting advantages may have made us weaker in 5 world cups but in 3 you could argue the other way around that the opposition was significantly advantaged themselves over us due to the home turf.

So given all this stat pulling I could say SA won't win this WC if they have to play England.....I do think this will be a good WC for NZ to finally put this crap the media loves to reproduce behind them.