I'd like to give my very brief, and limited analysis of the Spurs Thunder series. Haven't been as insane a fan as usual, so this can only be partial:
- Thunder got the Spurs out of the playoffs in 2012 when the latter had won, like, 20 games in a row and a perfect 8-0 so far in the post-season til that WCF. San Antonio won the first 2, and then lost all 4 next ones.
- Thunder again, swept the Spurs series this year, 4-0. Four zip...
- Tony Parker is an all-time great already. But he struggles against a)length b) athleticism. It just so happens Russell Westbrook is a big, tall, athletic freak. Oh, and he's young still. And this wouldn't even be a premiere, we've already seen how Westb contains Parker. They'll also throw Thabo Sefolosha at him as they did in the said 2012 WCF. Parker will have to work harder than ever this year and his midrange game is going to have to be absolutely spot-on. On the other end, Parker can't hang with RWest. Big advantage here for the Thunder.
- Serge Ibaka is missing: he gave them solid rebounding, great presence and true timing and quickness on his shot-blocking in the paint, and now a legit offensive weapon.
- Tim Duncan will have to put in a throwback 2003 era form on to manage anything interesting. The Thunder don't have Ibaka, but do have length and muscle meat to throw at him: K Perkins, Steven Adams, Thabeet and his 7'3 height. They'll have to choke Duncan and make him into an offensively castrated player, and that means fight him hard, at all times. Relentless.
- Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Boris Diaw ? Who to guard the MVP ? Kawhi can only do so much, and they'll eventually have to switch defenders, Pop system is based on movement and rotation, and Durant is going to have fun with the other two - and hey, not that they're bad themselves.
Unless the Spurs put on a monumental performance that stretches to the end of the series in terms of team defense, Durant ain't scoring 14 a night. He's getting his 30's.
- Given the nature and makeup of both teams respectively, one ultra-pro and technical but old, the other very well coached too but athletic and young: I can see the Bellinellis and the Ginobilis struggle to get quality shots off against the likes of Thabo, KD, Westb, Regg Jackson...
- Not sure San Antonio have exactly what they'd have liked to attack the rim with Serge-Protector out of the paint. Duncan doesn't have as much grunt as before, and Tiago Splitter is a finesse big man.
Finally, San Antonio do have hca. But I'm saying: history has spoken once before, and let's not be naive and with short-memory enough to think San Antonio would show any signs of things to come if they win the first one, or even the first two. They could very well, all over again, lose the next 4 subsequently...