IRB rankings and RWC 2015 pool draws

[TRF_stormer2010]

Which pool do you guys think my underachieving side would do the best in? Getting two wins would be unheard of in the same RWC to let you know how it is. They could land in either:

Pool B: South Africa, Samoa, Scotland, Asia 1, Americas 2.

or

Pool D: France, Ireland, Italy, Americas 1, Europe 2.

Heh, I asked (twitter not real life) Todd Clever the captain which he'd rather see the Eagles land in and he said "D of course! " But it was most likely because that would mean they have a good summer and top the Canadians to get the #1 Americas spot. But France/Ireland/Italy tell me that would take a miracle not to end up with at least 3 L's in a pool like that. But it's not like it's too much easier going against South Africa/Scotland/Samoa. Tough either way huh? I guess I just hope they make it, nothing's for sure.

I'd agree with Clever that Europe 2 and Italy should be easier games than Japan and Scotland.

Also, France and Ireland will be tough games but SA and Samoa will be tougher at least in a physical sense and might be more disruptive to your preperatoin for the following games if you have the bigger games early on against those two than France or Ireland would be.

 

[Shaggy]

I'd agree with Clever that Europe 2 and Italy should be easier games than Japan and Scotland.

Also, France and Ireland will be tough games but SA and Samoa will be tougher at least in a physical sense and might be more disruptive to your preperatoin for the following games if you have the bigger games early on against those two than France or Ireland would be.

I guess it makes sense to try to qualify as the top team from the region,as it's not a given that the second spot will go to Canada or the USA, should they miss the top spot ... it could go to Uruguay ... I would like Canada to get the top spot, so that they can play France again, for the reason that Little Guy gave

 

[djwizard84]

I think Scotland and Wales are seriously in danger of missing direct qualification for the 2019 World Cup. I would not be surprised to see Fiji and Japan finish 3rd in the pools.

I do not belive that Japan will finish on the 3rd spot, I even see a stronger US/Canada team!
by the way, Qs for 2019 will be 12 +Japan. If one of the six nations team are out this could make a mess on the Qualification process for europe.


Personally, i'm expecting a lot from Europe2 in the D pool... It would be time to prove the potencial of this ENC 1A teams. A big step for a "far far perhaps never happening" relegation system between Six Nations and ENC-1A

 

[RyotoTheDragon]

What is up with samoa and south africa always being in the same pool.haha love birds.

 

[TRF_heineken]

What is up with samoa and south africa always being in the same pool.haha love birds.

Lol, yeah it's weird, since 1995 we've played them every time!

but we have a good record against them, so hopefully it will again be the same in 2015 with a Bok win...

 

[Big Ewis]

I like this point. At the end of the day teams like Canada, Japan & Tonga do not have the depth to carry on the full eighty minutes for several weeks straight against the top sides. Yoe91 would be a liar if he said he was not sweating during the last wc while watching France/Canada or France/Japan, I know I was. However at the end of the match there was too much depth on the France side. We all saw what Tonga did and congrats to them they deserved that scalp. Things like this will happen, and are good for the game of rugby. However to say Wales & Scotland will have trouble with teams like Fiji or Japan based on current form is wishful thinking. The top nations can draw on too much talent and resources in three years time.

Nope I wasn't. Just like I wasn't against Samoa this Autumn. There's no way I thought France would lose all 3 these games, especially those two RWC games. Like against Samoa I wasn't stressed at all, but had they come up with the victory I'd be really ****** off but make peace with it a few moments later...but I honestly didn't see it happening. You would monitor my stress level and heart rate during those 3 matches, seriously I was standard.
I was a lot more stressed during the NZ pool match for e.g. coz I saw that sharp attack on the buildup each time they had the ball and I was like "ohhhhhh boy, how much are we gonna take !!!!" and I was fine with the 37-17 after all...
and in 2003: Japan actually managed like 30 pts on us was it ??...I saw the match. It's not stress, it's just annoying to watch. Ya know what I mean ? You know you're winning, but you hate that it never should have been this 'close' at any point !! It's just France. We'll often have games like that, in pools (LITTLE GUY has a bit of a point in that sense) we'll fall asleep on defense and concede WAY too many points against Tier 2 or 3 nations we really shouldn't, but still pour in a good 40-50, maybe 60 ourselves.

So no, no scare for me personally. Like I said, both NZ matches were FULL of adrenaline that RWC in '11, I had to heavily sigh every few minutes to evacuate the stress !!...

Lol, yeah it's weird, since 1995 we've played them every time!

but we have a good record against them, so hopefully it will again be the same in 2015 with a Bok win...

I think S-Africans never underestimate challengers or underdogs. I don't think it's even possible in a hundred parallel dimensions for SA to lose to SAM, not in a RWC. And SA have this that perhaps not many other Tier 1 nations have - they match or most likely surpass the intense physicality that those Pac. Islanders have that's the only strength they can use to upset bigger sides.

Samoa have shown some great improvements. I mean just think that in a couple of yrs they go from 43-5 in France to potentially beating them in '12, after defeated Wales away...
But against the Boks, there is no French-type bullshyte. You get the Boks 10 times out of 10, and no other side. You get a monster scrum, super physical forwards, good kickers and when they're healthy, lightning speed on the wings. Deal with that, or lose. Simply.

 

[RyotoTheDragon]

So no, no scare for me personally. Like I said, both NZ matches were FULL of adrenaline that RWC in '11, I had to heavily sigh every few minutes to evacuate the stress !!...

haha likewise for me during the final. For some reason I wasnt worried about the final haha instead of sitting down and watching the game i started celebrating when it started haha no lies, i drank and talked with mates outside until the final minutes.

p.s I thank the man upstairs(Joubert) that we didnt lose haha how crappy would that night have been if we did.

 

[tompaton7]

I can see Samoa being the dark horses of this tournament. Much like Argentina in 2007. I would not be surprised if they upset the odds and stunned South Africa, which would be great for the tournament.

I'm surprisingly not worried about Wales. In recent years when we've been either written off or predicted to bomb out we've gone through and likewise when we had an easy group we've bombed out. For example, 2003 people thought Italy were going to upset the odds having beaten us in the Six Nations. But we came through. In 2007, no-one really saw us losing to Fiji for some reason, as I remember but it happened, and we all know about 2011.

I reckon if Georgia qualify as Europe 1, this is their best chance to get in the top 3 of their group. They won't beat Argentina or New Zealand but Tonga are there for the taking in my opinion, anything could happen there. Likewise for Americas 1, if they shore up their packs they could beat Italy and hell even Ireland (unlikely however but before you bite my head off remember Georgia 2007? They also stuttered against the USA in 2011 and by then I see America being an improved team).

Elsewhere for qualifying, in Africa, we could see a new team in possibly Madagascar? They beat Namibia in an absolutely absorbing game of running rugby in extra time. Namibia also need to get out of Division 2 of the Africa Cup to be in contention for qualifying in 2014. Teams like Uganda and Kenya have also beaten them in the past. I just think it would be great to see a new representative as Namibia have delivered the same old every tournament. However considering the other teams have failed to beat them in qualifying they will probably be no different.

As for Europe, I wouldn't be surprised if Spain make a valiant effort to qualify for the first time since 1999, maybe even through the Repechage. I don't see Uruguay making it on current form, as they just lost to Portugal, who were below Spain in the ENC. However a lot can happen in three years. Bring it on!

 

[TRF_heineken]

I think S-Africans never underestimate challengers or underdogs. I don't think it's even possible in a hundred parallel dimensions for SA to lose to SAM, not in a RWC. And SA have this that perhaps not many other Tier 1 nations have - they match or most likely surpass the intense physicality that those Pac. Islanders have that's the only strength they can use to upset bigger sides.

Samoa have shown some great improvements. I mean just think that in a couple of yrs they go from 43-5 in France to potentially beating them in '12, after defeated Wales away...
But against the Boks, there is no French-type bullshyte. You get the Boks 10 times out of 10, and no other side. You get a monster scrum, super physical forwards, good kickers and when they're healthy, lightning speed on the wings. Deal with that, or lose. Simply.

Yeah we love to be physical, and hate it when a team tries to outmuscle us. the Islanders always try to be physical against us, and then when they come off second best, it turns into a brawl. they sometimes forget that their wingers (actually entire backline) are most of the times bigger and faster than our guys, and instead of playing the game, they play the man... And trust me, us saffas never shy away from a brawl...

 

[Big Ewis]

^ mmm hmmm, but I disagree with Pac Islander wingers being faster than yours. I've got Pieterson and Habana any day of the week.

 

[admartian]

What is up with samoa and south africa always being in the same pool.haha love birds.

It's the same thing with NZ and Tonga.

Goes as far back as 1999 from what I can remember.

YAnd trust me, us saffas never shy away from a brawl...

Yes - Just ask Dean Greyling. :lol:

 

[Rhyer]

Habana is quick in one direction but I don't see him as a good winger. I would never pick him in a world xv, EVER. I prefer wings who are a bit more multi-talented like Jane, Ioane, Clerc or S.Williams. His speed in changing direction is terrible, not that great under high ball, falls off tackles and very rarely creates his own opportunities.

 

[admartian]

Habana is quick in one direction but I don't see him as a good winger. I would never pick him in a world xv, EVER. I prefer wings who are a bit more multi-talented like Jane, Ioane, Clerc or S.Williams. His speed in changing direction is terrible, not that great under high ball, falls off tackles and very rarely creates his own opportunities.

This is my main problem with Habana (Save for that kick and chase try - which really hasn't been his game for 99.6% of his career).

He's good for kick and chase stuff or when there's an overlap and he can just run through. I think he'd make an excellent NFL slot receiver though! :lol:

 

[Draggs]

Habana on defence is a worry at times. He helped gift NZ a try in their last meeting. Went for an unlikely intercept and left a gaping hole in defence.

 

[Big Ewis]

...and he doesn't have the best hands in the world...I've seen him run before catching a pass quite a few times...
and he's a terrible kicker (touch).

But for all the rest...uhhmmm, yes, please can I have him on my team ?

 

[admartian]

Habana on defence is a worry at times. He helped gift NZ a try in their last meeting. Went for an unlikely intercept and left a gaping hole in defence.

lol I hate defenders like that. Sometimes I think SA tries to do this too much (kinda like spamming Hadouken on Street fighter but the other guys just blocks and you leave an opening ).

If it's there then go for it just don't leave your team-mate in a bad position.

 

[peanuts40]

Habana is one of the best wingers in the world, and imho one of the best ever. He doesn't ''fall off'' tackles, he is excellent under the high ball, he actually has one of the bigger boots for a winger and I have never thought of him as someone who has bad handling.

I will not argue his biggest weakness is his obsession with intercepting a pass, which can leave our defense wanting. But what I like most about him is the fact when he was going through a dry try spell, he always came in field and looked for work, whether it was at the ruck or maul.

Also think it's a little absurd people say he doesn't ''create his own opportunities''. He has pace of course, and uses it to his advantage. When a lot of wingers in certain situations would have to cut back in field due to lack of pace, it seems as if they are doing more to score, breaking a tackle etc.

He is one of the few players in world rugby who can make something out of nothing, and somehow find a way to score. You never have him covered, the type of tries he scores proves that.

 

[admartian]

Also think it's a little absurd people say he doesn't ''create his own opportunities''. He has pace of course, and uses it to his advantage. When a lot of wingers in certain situations would have to cut back in field due to lack of pace, it seems as if they are doing more to score, breaking a tackle etc.

He is one of the few players in world rugby who can make something out of nothing, and somehow find a way to score. You never have him covered, the type of tries he scores proves that.

I think the thing that people are referring to uis not that eh doesn't 'create' from space that he's been given; but rather he lacks'elite' ball-carrying vision. Yes, as ai said above, once he's given s[pace then he can certainly work with that, but doesn't often find the best running lanes.

Not to say that he hasn't before, but it isn't his strong suit, nor one that you wouldn't find from one of the top tier wingers. No one is hating on the guy.

His biggest asset is certainly his speed.

 

[Rhyer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwehyLYSRwE

I found it too boring to watch. The only try after 5 minutes that wasn't a 'receive ball, run straight to try line, dive' in those 5 minutes was at 4:23 against Samoa. He doesn't create any of those opportunities, you're bloody blind if you don't see that.

Now compare this to someone like Shane Williams http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozrKpWR-UUI

The difference is immediate. In the Brian Habana videos, he is on the receiving end of passes, running straight to the tryline. For Shane Williams, notice how he passes to other people to score tries? He creates opportunities for others as creating his own tries.

Cory Jane http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGZsPi8Wf54

Again, creates a lot of opportunities and some amazing touches there.

Now please demonstrate how he makes something out of nothing? Because from what I see it's the team that makes it for him.

 

[peanuts40]

Now please demonstrate how he makes something out of nothing? Because from what I see it's the team that makes it for him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jWTWcW5sYw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsT41G9_imU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AMw7MiO_RQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3By_p2-AGJY (2nd try of 3)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIcWJtWtfbQ

Only have a few because they were the only ones I could find of him/or came to mind that were not in a video montage, in which case i'm sure there would be a lot more.

Please, comparing Jane and Williams to Habana???? Freaking crazy.....Habana will go down as a legend of the game.

Habana is a better finisher, tackler, kick and chaser and overall just a better winger than those two.