The shortlist will include six players (or am I wrong?). I don't think we can have more than three coming from one country, even though so far New Zealand deserves four or five spots. Just to remind you, the last year's shortlist was: Kaino, Weepu, Nonu, Pocock, Genia and Dusautoir, who won the award. So 3 All Blacks, 2 Wallabies and 1 Bleu.
I can't imagine less than three ABs this year as well. So here's my guess (I too have to admit I haven't been following NH rugby too much, apart from French TOP14 and some H Cup, but it doesn't count).
Richie McCaw
Israel Dagg
Kieran Read
Bryan Habana
Leigh Halfpenny
Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe
Quite difficult to pick the All Blacks as it was really the whole team responsible for the results, with no weak points. Nevertheless I think these three are the best choices (and they have been mentioned a few times here). Habana had his best season in five years or so and Halfpenny gave Wales what they badly needed - some stable kicking (and he has been pretty good in all other areas too). I picked these five quite quickly and the sixth one was the most difficult choice. Lobbe was awesome in the most difficult rugby competition in the world, so I chose him, but there are a few other options as well.
Who should win out of these six? I have no idea
My favourite player is Dagg, but whether he deserves it just now I'm not sure.