[EOYT] Wales vs. South Africa 09/11/13

[Patchey]

Is there any reason Biggar has been completely dropped? Injury? If not that is very odd.

 

[Draggs]

Davies hasn't impressed for Wales for a long time. With Evans an injury doubt and Charteris just returning from a long lay off! it it is only option. Wouldn't start Lydiate, has played barely any rugby. Tipuric is the most talented flanker we have produced in years. Poor lad is going to waste his career getting splinters. Edit. Eli Wales might pay off. Worked for North three years ago. Agree about James, J'nuh. If we decide to play backs rugby, I can see the advantage of using Eli. If we want to play conservatively not so much. Williams really is only a fullback. Will have to see.

No Biggar, well, I won't even bother there. @patchey, Gatland doesn't seem to be a fan. He dropped him for a year after the Fiji match in 2010, and the staff were reluctant to drop Priestland last year when his form took a dive.

Think the Boks will be well up for it. Fourie will be eager to get cracking again, I find myself excited to see him and JdV reunited. With any luck the back three will see the return of JP and move Willie le Roux to FB, but based on The comments about wanting a wet field, I can see Kirchner starting and a conservative gameplan employed. Steyn and du Preez in the halfbacks. Can't see PSdT starting as much as we all would like to see it. Maybe off the bench, but it would be a mistake to waste his time there. I think you have a point Oke, he might have a fear of losing, which is OK somewhat. Not to the point where he refuses to bring in new players. Meyer has been quite willing to try out new players if needed. Capped a fair few last year.

Pretty stupid by Gatland to not meet with the ref. Its not like the referee is an important figure or anything.

Wales never have enough in the tank to beat SA. The past few performances have had Wales in the lead, and in both 2010 matches it was pretty sizable, but as always, undone, usually early in the second half. Think it was Willem Alberts who came on and barged over against us, only to do it in the next two tests as well. Definitely a great impact player. Looking at recent performances and individual form, a South African win seems to make the most sense.

 

[j'nuh]

Is there any reason Biggar has been completely dropped? Injury? If not that is very odd.

Wales are still recovering from having to spend the best part of a decade with a fly half who had a fantastic grasp of the basics. They'd lose the Welsh identity at fly-half if they didn't pick an enigmatic 10 now.

 

[dullonien]

Davies hasn't impressed for Wales for a long time. With Evans an injury doubt and Charteris just returning from a long lay off! it it is only option. Wouldn't start Lydiate, has played barely any rugby. Tipuric is the most talented flanker we have produced in years. Poor lad is going to waste his career getting splinters. Walker is a poor choice, he could be a very easy target for the Boks. Might have put Liam Williams their for high ball coverage. Agree about James, J'nuh.

No Biggar, well, I won't even bother there. @patchey, Gatland doesn't seem to be a fan. He dropped him for a year after the Fiji match in 2010, and the staff were reluctant to drop Priestland last year when his form took a dive.

Yeah, Davies probably makes sense. Re Lydiate or Tipuric, I think Lydiate is the right call here. He'll be fresh and will match the physicality of the SA pack. Tips to come on in the second half when the game opens up a little. I'm also happy to see Gats chance his arm with Walker. He's not overly fragile in defence (although can be a little shaky under the high ball), and what he brings in attack Williams can't match. Get him into a little space and he will pose a huge threat, as will North on the other wing of course. If Habana plays, that could be an interesting tussle if the ball reaches them, both lightening quick.

For me it was always going to be one of Priestland or Biggar in the 23, with Hook being the ultimate in versatile subs. I'd have gone with Biggar, but Gats is particularly fond of Priestland. It's certainly a risk, although with Halfpenny now kicking, not a huge one. Let's hope Priestland can get the ball out to Davies, North, Halfpenny and Walker.

 

[Ospreylian]

Is there any reason Biggar has been completely dropped? Injury? If not that is very odd.

It's because everyone thinks Biggar should start. Gatland has to be different. Playing his little mind-games again.

EDIT: On a different note, fair play to Warren for throwing Eli Wales straight in at the deep end. It has paid off for previous players on their debut, i.e. Halfpenny and North both made their debuts against South Africa, with Halfpenny scoring a long penalty kick, and North scoring two great tries.

 

[Big Ewis]

I can't believe this thread isn't up yet. Are people not interested? Anyway, I'll update once the team line-ups are available. I expect a massice game; if you look at recent games and particularly games in Wales (and that RWC2011 game in NZ) it has been tight stuff. [uh, like...end quote of stormer]

How do you think I feel ?!! NOBODY'S MADE THE FRANCE NEW ZEALAND THREAD YET !!!...

Anyways: Wales are looooooong due a victory against South Africa, everybody knows that, even some Saffas themselves, but will it happen though ? Maybe not. I can't believe Wales only beat the Boks once ever...
And maaaaaaan talk about close outcomes, in their last 4 meetings with S.A., Wales have only lost by an average of 3.25 points, the largest victory being by 5.

It really does seem like this is the right time for Wales. They're way on form, they've got nice pieces and very nice pieces even all around that XV, they're at home...a Top 3 scrum world wide, some huge backs etc....and more importantly they know who they are. They know their identity. They'll follow their gameplan patiently, and look for some holes too when they can. And they definitely have the girth to hang with the Boks.

Has anyone given a prognostic yet ? hah, doesn't seem like it, nobody wants to put himself forward.
Tough to call for sure.

 

[jonny24]

A statistician would easily say that from those results posting above, in recent times the gap of points is closing.

Wales have high expectations put on them now not only by the media / fans but also themselves. Seeing England beat Australia last week and the Lions doing the same over the summer and before that NZ losing to England there is much pressure on Wales to finally deliver.

Ahh! I thought I'd be safe in this thread from the result of the England game... still haven't had time to watch it. Oh well...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Just some useless info. With JdP injured and the rumor that Frans Malherbe will be involved together with Bakkies most likely partnering Etzebeth we might see the heaviest starting pack yet for SA on the weekend. I am going to chuck Oosthuizen in at loose head (his prefered position in any case as Beast needs a rest too).

Coenie 127kg
Bismarck 114kg
Malherbe 124kg
Bakkies 124kg
Etzebeth 120kg
Louw 112kg
Alberts 120kg
Vermeulen 116kg

957kg total*

*actual weights may vary to those provided because we all know how accurate info on the net usually is.

 

[Bluemoon]

I've watched Eli Walker in the last few games for the Ospreys, especially since Cuthbert was injured, and I am worried about this decision. I think this is a game where Wales will need experience, power and ruthlessness. I am not sure Eli Walker is the right choice at the moment. I think I would have preferred Halfpenny on the wing and Hook or Byrne (call him up) at fullback for the Boks. I know its an untested combination, but then Halfpenny is very good on the wing and we have experience at fullback. I hope he proves me wrong!

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

I couldn't wait any longer. I'm glad you don't see it as encroaching on your turf so to speak.

To be fair, it's a relief. I've been quite busy lately since I got a promotion at work so completely forgot about the match threads. I honestly thought we still had a week left before they kicked off but it turns out last weekend was already that rugby-less weekend haha

 

[TRF_Ezequiel]

I couldn't wait any longer. I'm glad you don't see it as encroaching on your turf so to speak.

To be fair, it's a relief. I've been quite busy lately since I got a promotion at work so completely forgot about the match threads. I honestly thought we still had a week left before they kicked off but it turns out last weekend was already that rugby-less weekend haha

 

[Draggs]

We appreciate any help. Now LG is on staff he gets these jobs, being the most junior member.
Thanks stormer, remember, getting match threads up so I don't have to do them often results in rep.

 

[Jer1cho]

Now it seems that Kirchner will likely start at 15 ahead of le Roux. That ****ing Sideshow Bob. Why? WHY WHY WHY????????????????????

 

[TRF_heineken]

Now it seems that Kirchner will likely start at 15 ahead of le Roux. That ****ing Sideshow Bob. Why? WHY WHY WHY????????????????????

Actually, latest reports are that Lambie will start at 15...

But I can see why they would pick Zane. Going for the conservative apporach in an expected mudfest...

But, no need to get angry just yet, the team hasn't been announced yet...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Bok team released: will be updating both teams in the OP shortly.

1 Tendai Mtawarira
2 Bismarck du Plessis
3 Frans Malherbe - talk about a bolter but I applaud HM!
4 Flip van der Merwe - I.. I.. take that back. why when you have Midi Olympique's ALL TIME 4 in Bakkies or one for the future and already looking top notch in PSdT??!?!!!!
5 Eben Etzebeth
6 Francois Louw
7 Willem Alberts
8 Duane Vermeulen
9 FdP
10 Morne Steyn
11 Bryan Habana
12 JdV
13 Jaque Fourie
14 JP Pietersen
15 Pat Lambie - I was fearing for Kirchner so this is a relief but Willie le Roux!? and I see Lambie at 10 duking it out with a fit Goosen looking forward so why not get Lambie at least get the game time at 10 for more than the last 10 minutes..

16 Adriaan Strauss
17 Guthro Steenkamp
18 Coenie Oosthuizen
19 Pieter-Steph du Toit
20 Siya later Kolisi
21 Ruan Pienaae
22 JJ Engelbrecht
23 Willie le Roux

So we see the return of J Fourie and JPP moving JJ Engelbrecht and Le Roux to the bench to come on with fresh legs? Could work against the big Welsh player that extra injection of pace..
Some surprises in the forwards; FvdM ahead of both Bakkies and PSdT in the starting line-up is a bad move IMO while Frans Malherbe is a risk I actually like.

 

[psychic duck]

Bok team released: will be updating both teams in the OP shortly.

1 Tendai Mtawarira
2 Bismarck du Plessis
3 Frans Malherbe - talk about a bolter but I applaud HM!
4 Flip van der Merwe - I.. I.. take that back. why when you have Midi Olympique's ALL TIME 4 in Bakkies or one for the future and already looking top notch in PSdT??!?!!!!
5 Eben Etzebeth
6 Francois Louw
7 Willem Alberts
8 Duane Vermeulen
9 FdP
10 Morne Steyn
11 Bryan Habana
12 JdV
13 Jaque Fourie
14 JP Pietersen
15 Pat Lambie - I was fearing for Kirchner so this is a relief but Willie le Roux!? and I see Lambie at 10 duking it out with a fit Goosen looking forward so why not get Lambie at least get the game time at 10 for more than the last 10 minutes..

16 Adriaan Strauss
17 Guthro Steenkamp
18 Coenie Oosthuizen
19 Pieter-Steph du Toit
20 Siya later Kolisi
21 Ruan Pienaae
22 JJ Engelbrecht
23 Willie le Roux

So we see the return of J Fourie and JPP moving JJ Engelbrecht and Le Roux to the bench to come on with fresh legs? Could work against the big Welsh player that extra injection of pace..
Some surprises in the forwards; FvdM ahead of both Bakkies and PSdT in the starting line-up is a bad move IMO while Frans Malherbe is a risk I actually like.

5/7 of the 2007 backline, who are nearly all based abroad now. FdP playing is a big boost, the gulf in quality between him and Phillips is very wide, although in fairness Phillips often surprises in a Wales shirt he's doesn't have the brain or the skill of du Preez.

 

[profitius]

Wales are probably the most talked about team in world rugby or at least the most hotly debated. They've dominated the 6 nations in the past 2 years but under Gatland they have 1 (yes one) win against the big 3 in the southern hemisphere. So are they overperforming in the 6 nations or underperforming against the SH big 3 or somewhere in between?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

5/7 of the 2007 backline, who are nearly all based abroad now. FdP playing is a big boost, the gulf in quality between him and Phillips is very wide, although in fairness Phillips often surprises in a Wales shirt he's doesn't have the brain or the skill of du Preez.

That is a backline that will be bordering on oldish soon, yeah but I expect HM will be blending the likes of Johan Goosen, Willie le Roux and JJ Engelbrecht in soon enough. My only worry here is 9. FdP at this stage has so much over the horde of potential deputies while Pienaar just has not performed for the Bokke ever. I hope one of the fringe guys step it up big time next year's Super Rugby. Hougaard was supposed to be the one coming through but has underwhelmed (personally I believe they don;t allow him to play to his strengths as a 9 at the Bulls and are trying to mould him into FdP2.0 which he just isn't).

Wales are probably the most talked about team in world rugby or at least the most hotly debated. They've dominated the 6 nations in the past 2 years but under Gatland they have 1 (yes one) win against the big 3 in the southern hemisphere. So are they overperforming in the 6 nations or underperforming against the SH big 3 or somewhere in between?

Interesting question. I've been of the opinion these last few years that it's 90% mentallity so I'd say they are underperforming against the us.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Bok team released: will be updating both teams in the OP shortly.

1 Tendai Mtawarira
2 Bismarck du Plessis
3 Frans Malherbe - talk about a bolter but I applaud HM!
4 Flip van der Merwe - I.. I.. take that back. why when you have Midi Olympique's ALL TIME 4 in Bakkies or one for the future and already looking top notch in PSdT??!?!!!!
5 Eben Etzebeth
6 Francois Louw
7 Willem Alberts
8 Duane Vermeulen
9 FdP
10 Morne Steyn
11 Bryan Habana
12 JdV
13 Jaque Fourie
14 JP Pietersen
15 Pat Lambie - I was fearing for Kirchner so this is a relief but Willie le Roux!? and I see Lambie at 10 duking it out with a fit Goosen looking forward so why not get Lambie at least get the game time at 10 for more than the last 10 minutes..

16 Adriaan Strauss
17 Guthro Steenkamp
18 Coenie Oosthuizen
19 Pieter-Steph du Toit
20 Siya later Kolisi
21 Ruan Pienaae
22 JJ Engelbrecht
23 Willie le Roux

So we see the return of J Fourie and JPP moving JJ Engelbrecht and Le Roux to the bench to come on with fresh legs? Could work against the big Welsh player that extra injection of pace..
Some surprises in the forwards; FvdM ahead of both Bakkies and PSdT in the starting line-up is a bad move IMO while Frans Malherbe is a risk I actually like.

Well I like this team a lot!

Everything as expected. And I understand HM choice at Lock. Flip and PSDT are the only locks in the squad that can play 5. And we all knew beforehand that it was highly unlikely that PSDT would get a run-on debut.

As for the Backs. We lose a bit of pace, but get an advantage in defence. And in wet conditions, this will be a factor to consider.

Can't see much fault with that team. Boks to win by 12

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

The six nations has no team head and shoulders above in the way the Rugby championship does; Wales were nearly beaten in 2012 and were beaten last year - that they haven't won many games against Southern hemisphere, in my opinion, reflects simply the gulf between hemispheres. The truth is that none of the northern hemipshere teams get frequent wins against southern hemisphere opposition (hopefully this is starting to change!)

People like to use the fact Wales haven't won many against the south, but as I think Stormer posted above, England haven't beaten South Africa in 11 games!? And Scotland can only beat the south at underwater curling...

So my answer would be that whilst there were a few games Wales could have/should have won against the south, the overall record they have isn't unusual in terms of general northerm hem performance.