Crusaders V Bulls

[dan the man]

Yeah, i agree with darwin_23 here, although the starting back-row (Kaino, McCaw, Read) is pretty much sewn up and i can't see Todd getting picked ahead of Thomson, Messam or Vito as the back-ups.
Also i think that by the end of the Super Rugby season Todd will be forgotten about by alot of people... once McCaw comes back Todd will be on the bench and will be lucky to get more than 10 minutes in a game. It wouldn't surprise me if he heads somewhere else next season just so he can get a starting position each week.

I do really rate Chris Jack but i can't see him back in the AB's as he'd be behind Thorn, Whitelock, Donnelly and Boric and they may only end up taking 3 locks into a World Cup

 

[Shaggy]

Yeah, i agree with darwin_23 here, although the starting back-row (Kaino, McCaw, Read) is pretty much sewn up and i can't see Todd getting picked ahead of Thomson, Messam or Vito as the back-ups.
Also i think that by the end of the Super Rugby season Todd will be forgotten about by alot of people... once McCaw comes back Todd will be on the bench and will be lucky to get more than 10 minutes in a game. It wouldn't surprise me if he heads somewhere else next season just so he can get a starting position each week.

I do really rate Chris Jack but i can't see him back in the AB's as he'd be behind Thorn, Whitelock, Donnelly and Boric and they may only end up taking 3 locks into a World Cup

I think the lack of experience won't be the deciding factor as to whether Todd gets selected for the AB's or not, but rather, how he'd fit into the mix of the other loose forwards. As for how much more we will see of him for the Crusaders now that Ritchie is returning, I'd expect that Todd Blackadder will probably try him or Macaw in the 6 jersey or rotate who starts out of Macaw/Todd/George Whitelock,and give whoever misses out significant time off the bench.

... I've got this horrible feeling that the makeup of the AB locks will be determined by who isn't injured, although Chris Jack will have plenty of game time to press his claim

 

[nickdnz]

I've heard this sort of sentiment a lot, but I'm not necessarily convinced of this. For example the likes of Kronfeld and Mehrtens made there AB debuts in 1995, after only a season or so of provincial rugby, and turned out to be stars of the RWC tournament, along with one Jonah Lomu (who had only played a couple of tests the year before). Likewise in 1987 Michael Jones made his debut and turned out to be one of the stars of the tournament. I'm not neccesarily saying that Todd should be picked, just that lack of Super Rugby / All Blacks experience should not necessarily rule a player out of RWC contention.

Yeah, I had Mehrtens and Kronfeld in the back of my head when that statement was made, but I'd still say more recent tests haven't gone well with players like Ben Atiga being just dismissed after the RWC. Also, look at every openside tested in the last few years, Latimer, Waldrom, Braid all only got very limited time in the jersey, and none of them have really had the chance to impress, so I don't know if Todd will be better for his time or worse. He's not my RWC pick yet, but I certainly see him in the future as a starting AB (when McCaw retires or goes overseas).

 

[d1e1m]

Yeah, i agree with darwin_23 here, although the starting back-row (Kaino, McCaw, Read) is pretty much sewn up and i can't see Todd getting picked ahead of Thomson, Messam or Vito as the back-ups.
Also i think that by the end of the Super Rugby season Todd will be forgotten about by alot of people... once McCaw comes back Todd will be on the bench and will be lucky to get more than 10 minutes in a game. It wouldn't surprise me if he heads somewhere else next season just so he can get a starting position each week.

I do really rate Chris Jack but i can't see him back in the AB's as he'd be behind Thorn, Whitelock, Donnelly and Boric and they may only end up taking 3 locks into a World Cup

Out of those three loose forwards you described, only THomson is Todd's equal this season. Messam and Vito, while physically capable are not even close to what I would consider test form. Vito was found out during the TN and Messam just has never managed to make the step up to me. While he's good with the Maori, I wouldn't exactly say doing well with them translates to doing well with AB play. And I'd only pick Donnelly ahead of Jack if the big man was injured because he has more experience at test level against the world's best like Matfield, POC and other top locks and has shown more enthusiasm in his first start this season than I saw in Donnelly the few games he had since Bekhuis and Hoeata replaced him. As to the rotation of Crusaders forwards, Blackadder has no real specialist blindside and George Whitelock, I just don't rate him highly, often makes silly mistakes and gives away simple penalties. I could see McCaw being moved to 6 and leave the running around the field to Todd with George on the bench. There will definitely be rotation like how he manages the Franks and Crocky.

 

[Shaggy]

Out of those three loose forwards you described, only THomson is Todd's equal this season. Messam and Vito, while physically capable are not even close to what I would consider test form. Vito was found out during the TN and Messam just has never managed to make the step up to me. While he's good with the Maori, I wouldn't exactly say doing well with them translates to doing well with AB play. And I'd only pick Donnelly ahead of Jack if the big man was injured because he has more experience at test level against the world's best like Matfield, POC and other top locks and has shown more enthusiasm in his first start this season than I saw in Donnelly the few games he had since Bekhuis and Hoeata replaced him. As to the rotation of Crusaders forwards, Blackadder has no real specialist blindside and George Whitelock, I just don't rate him highly, often makes silly mistakes and gives away simple penalties. I could see McCaw being moved to 6 and leave the running around the field to Todd with George on the bench. There will definitely be rotation like how he manages the Franks and Crocky.

Chris Jack has way more test experience against the top nations than Donnelly, and he knows Matfield's play very well - their rivalry goes back to playing against each other at under 21 level ... I agree that Jack is behind a few others in the AB selection pecking order though

 

[d1e1m]

Chris Jack has way more test experience against the top nations than Donnelly, and he knows Matfield's play very well - their rivalry goes back to playing against each other at under 21 level ... I agree that Jack is behind a few others in the AB selection pecking order though

Sorry about that, I wasn't clear in what I wrote. I meant to say Jack is ahead of Donnelly in my order because of exactly what you described and it showed against the Bulls and you can watch the AB tests all the way back and see his mongrel style. Maybe he's behind Boric because he is a bit slower and less athletic than the younger man but if he keeps this form up, he'll be mightily irresistible.

EDIT: I feel that to be an AB lock next to someone like THorn, you have to match his attitude and grit, which out of the others only Williams and Jack have shown similar ability to get stuck in. I love Sam Whitelock but he has yet to establish himself as a dominant lock, that isn't to say he's a very good lock though.

 

[Sam Owen]

Good game from the Crusaders, kind of the most fun team to watch right now, them, the Blues, the Rebels, the Cheetahs.

Bulls were ???...I dont know. They're just not that fun to watch when Du Preez, Spies and Olivier are not really firing like we know they can. I didnt mention Steyn because he's a good player (kicker) but Im not a fan of drop kickers, good kicker though, good kicker.

 

[Shaggy]

Sorry about that, I wasn't clear in what I wrote. I meant to say Jack is ahead of Donnelly in my order because of exactly what you described and it showed against the Bulls and you can watch the AB tests all the way back and see his mongrel style. Maybe he's behind Boric because he is a bit slower and less athletic than the younger man but if he keeps this form up, he'll be mightily irresistible.

EDIT: I feel that to be an AB lock next to someone like THorn, you have to match his attitude and grit, which out of the others only Williams and Jack have shown similar ability to get stuck in. I love Sam Whitelock but he has yet to establish himself as a dominant lock, that isn't to say he's a very good lock though.

Yeah I hear what you are saying, but I think Chris Jack needs to string a few more games together like the Bulls game to put himself back into All Black contention. Lock is one area that I worry about, as it seems to be one of those positions that we seem to get injuries in, so it would be great if the likes of Jack can get himself in the frame

 

[Larksea]

Well I personally dont believe Chris Jack is below Donnely in the pecking order right now. Donnely is having trouble getting on the field for the Highlanders because of the good form of bekhuis and hoeata (who's been really impressive). Plus that last game from jack is not the only time he's performed well this year. He was very good when he was given 80min in his 100th super match not long ago and he's looked great off the bench in other games when he's got the chance. Jack looks like he has an extra gear when he needs it and can step up his game. Which is important because come WC finals time you need all your players to do that.

Thorn & Boric would be my first choice locks and Add Chris jack and Sam Whitelock for the top 4 and surely there will be 4 locks in the WC squad and prob 5 loose forwards.

As for Matt Todd, I dont think he will be selected. I would select I think McCaw(7), Read(8), Kaino(6), Messam(8,6,7), Thompson(7,6). But it really comes down to if the coaches think they need to pick a "specialist/dedicated" 7 to backup McCaw. I dont think it's needed because Thompson is in such great form and he plays like a 7 even when he has 6 on his back. But if the coaches decide they do want an all out 7 to cover McCaw then I'd find it hard to select Waldrum or Braid or Latimer over Todd.

I personally dont see any reason to have an all out 7 in the squad to cover McCaw. If he's injured for pool play matches then Messam or Thompson can cover him no problem and if he's injured for the finals if it's Minor he will play anyway and if it's bad you just have to bring in cover to replace him. I'm sure someone like Braid will be up with the play and ready for such a scenario. Or Todd who has the added advantage of playing week in and week out with so many AB's at the crucaders.

Also when McCaw comes back for the crucaders I'd find it hard to believe George whitelock would keep Todd on the bench.

 

[Darwin]

Well I personally dont believe Chris Jack is below Donnely in the pecking order right now. Donnely is having trouble getting on the field for the Highlanders because of the good form of bekhuis and hoeata (who's been really impressive). Plus that last game from jack is not the only time he's performed well this year. He was very good when he was given 80min in his 100th super match not long ago and he's looked great off the bench in other games when he's got the chance. Jack looks like he has an extra gear when he needs it and can step up his game. Which is important because come WC finals time you need all your players to do that.

Thorn & Boric would be my first choice locks and Add Chris jack and Sam Whitelock for the top 4 and surely there will be 4 locks in the WC squad and prob 5 loose forwards.

As for Matt Todd, I dont think he will be selected. I would select I think McCaw(7), Read(8), Kaino(6), Messam(8,6,7), Thompson(7,6). But it really comes down to if the coaches think they need to pick a "specialist/dedicated" 7 to backup McCaw. I dont think it's needed because Thompson is in such great form and he plays like a 7 even when he has 6 on his back. But if the coaches decide they do want an all out 7 to cover McCaw then I'd find it hard to select Waldrum or Braid or Latimer over Todd.

I personally dont see any reason to have an all out 7 in the squad to cover McCaw. If he's injured for pool play matches then Messam or Thompson can cover him no problem and if he's injured for the finals if it's Minor he will play anyway and if it's bad you just have to bring in cover to replace him. I'm sure someone like Braid will be up with the play and ready for such a scenario. Or Todd who has the added advantage of playing week in and week out with so many AB's at the crucaders.

Also when McCaw comes back for the crucaders I'd find it hard to believe George whitelock would keep Todd on the bench.

I generally agree with your resoning regarding the necessity of a specialist 7 in the squad. Indeed McCaw, Read, Kaino, Messem, and Thomson seem the most likely five loosies to be picked at this stage. However the AB's coaches did take Dan Braid on the end-of-year tour, and were happy to have him on the bench (with McCaw switching to 8 if Read came off), so I wouldn't rule out the possiblity of them taking a specialist 7.

In terms of the Crusaders, I would expect the loose-forwards to be rotated quite a bit once McCaw gets back to full-fitness, with Read, Todd, and Whitelock all taking turns on the bench (or even being rested from the game completely). However in the big games the loose-trio is undoubtedly going to be Todd, McCaw, and Read, though what numbers McCaw and Todd have on their backs (and whether they play as openside/blinside flankers, or simply play left/right) is yet to be determined.