There won't be anything happening soon. There cannot be. Its simply far, far, far too soon.
But perhaps if they learn from the shambles of ramping up the lockdown and publish their milestones for how the lockdown may be eased and what criteria need met for each milestone that it might help - at least people know where they stand.
So not expecting anything.
We're not even really starting to flatten the curve yet, but we need to do that, and climb a decent way down the far side before we can be released into the wild. Far enough that the backlog in ICU is cleared, and by enough to cope with the inevitable second spike.
Based on China's graph, my
guess would be 3 weeks after we've started to properly come down the far side of the curves, then those who've had symptoms will be allowed out*, 3 weeks later for the first batch of the rest of us (I'd guess thenu infected will be split into 2-3 batches for release, to manage the second spike - probably grouped by job description). We must be a good 3 weeks away from starting our descent.
So by my reckoning, if you've had symptoms (and we're lucky), you're probably a good 6-8 weeks away from being allowed out properly. If you haven't had symptoms, 9-18. If your old/vulnerable, then 18-24.
Second spike has to be far better managed (and really should be, with lessons learned from now). A test for immunity would be invaluable at that point. Of course, testing may change the above, as will political will.
*I'd be allowing the known/suspected cases out first, to "test" the immunity, and see it carries across strains. This thing then takes 2 weeks from action to first signs of a reaction, so you need to give it 3 to judge that it's not just a one-off reaction. This second peak should be fairly small, but the backlog of the those recovering in hospital won't have fully cleared, so it's a judgement on how soon to ease restrictions.
You then release about half of the uninfected, and get a 3rd peak, which should be smaller again. If the second peak is bigger than expected, then this needs to be delayed, and probably a complete rethink given to the exit strategy. The 3rd peak needs to be allowed to run its course, and be measured, before releasing the rest of the non-vulnerable uninfected, for a 4th peak.
That 4th peak needs to have died down almost completely before the vulnerable are allowed out.
Of course, well probably just talk (in private) about here immunity and (in public) about mental and physical effects of confinement, and just release everyone for the second peak, and have to close everything back down again 3 weeks later.
