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[COVID-19] General Discussion

Bruce_ma gooshvili said:
The current Scottish death rate is now exceeding the first Omicron wave peak and is continuing to rise. Hospitalisation levels highest in 13 months. Even allowing for the ~35% Omicron overcount of people who died with Covid (but not because of it) this is a significant moment in the public health history of Scotland.

Media barely touching it. Politicians absolutely silent. Medical experts selectively picking data points and giving them a positive spin. What a shower. At least tell people there is a danger out there and they may wish to exercise some caution until this wave is over.

Omicron having a field day with the historic 'sick man of Europe' and our underlying health issues.
Click to expand...
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid infections rising again across UK - ONS

A form of Omicron called BA.2 is now the most common variant in most of the UK, figures suggest.
www.bbc.co.uk

Coming through. But yeh Javid just outright denying effects of sub variant of Omicron.

Parents over 75 and yet to be called for 4th one. They had their booster back in October. So looking like April at earliest.

Also first peer reviewed study from Malaysia showing Ivermectin not effective against Infection from Covid progressing to severe disease.

jamanetwork.com

Efficacy of Ivermectin on Disease Progression in Patients With COVID-19

This randomized clinical trial assesses the efficacy of ivermectin treatment in preventing progression to severe disease among high-risk patients with COVID-19 in Malaysia.
jamanetwork.com jamanetwork.com
 
What's the ideal plan in this situation?
4th, 5th, 6th boosters?

There is zero chance there'd be widespread compliance with another lockdown like they're having to implement in China
 
I personally think annual boosters for the rest of us who are not vulnerable. So probably October time is my guess. Hopefully updated boosters. But most of us should have the memory T and B cells still from previous vaccination and natural infection.

Otherwise boils down to simple measures. Our household has stocked up on the free tests before 1 April.
 
Nothing in those cases charts above give me cause for concern for anywhere in UK outside of Scotland at present. Scotland will be the Guinea pig for the Danish Omicron subvariant so there is no need for rUK to respond until they see if Scotland is indeed sleepwalking into something unpleasant.

Hospital admissions are now the second highest they have been of the entire pandemic in Scotland and still rising sharply. Reportedly focusses on over 60s (60 to 74yrs not getting a further booster, so have lowest immunity at present of all society). Chief Medical Officer describes situation as 'very encouraging' due to currently low demand in ICU. Medical experts on telly laughing and joking and there is still almost zero reporting on this. Totally out of step with suggestions the health service was drowning during periods of lower numbers of hospital admissions earlier in the pandemic.

www.scotsman.com

Chief medical officer: Rising Covid cases in Scotland are being ‘intensely monitored’

Scotland’s record Covid infection levels and the increasing numbers of people in hospital with the virus are being “scrutinised intensely”, the country’s chief medical officer has said.
www.scotsman.com www.scotsman.com

The long term situation is likely manageable if we give the most vulnerable their annual booster between late Nov and Xmas (so the timing sees them with max immunity through the winter), but it is very difficult for elderly relatives to be aware they are at this moment in time at a massively elevated risk of a stay in hospital with Covid when nobody is really reporting it.

I think they need to retain face coverings in public transport in winter as the only restriction and offer a traffic light system to inform vulnerable persons about the risk of hospital admission / serious illness so that they can make an informed personal decision about how they want to conduct themselves when we get spikes like this. I think that could carry public support.
 
Travelled on the Jubilee and Met lines yesterday and would guesstimate about 15-20% of peeps wearing masks. Ventilation on jubilee trains felt rubbish. It's no longer a legal requirement to wear one on TFL.
 
We are extending compulsory face mask usage up here for a further fortnight. Better than nothing but we are on track for more hospitalisations than at any time during the pandemic in the next 72hrs. Not something to be proud off.
 
Yes SK could get unpleasant but with roughly 5x the population than HK their total daily deaths is just over 2/3rds HK, so they are actually in a far better place in terms of death rate. I'm reasonably optimistic SK won't go catastrophic due to their good vaccine rollout.
 
Bruce_ma gooshvili said:
We are extending compulsory face mask usage up here for a further fortnight. Better than nothing but we are on track for more hospitalisations than at any time during the pandemic in the next 72hrs. Not something to be proud off.
Click to expand...
72hrs later Scottish Covid hospitalisation is only 2,050 compared to the all time Covid record of 2,053, so I was four out. :( Bad Gooshvili!

The Scottish Chief Medical Officer whose lack of communication brought us to this position was also made a Sir at the last round of honours. As well deserved as the rest of them. Let's have a slow hand clap for the politicians and pandemic management experts and call it "clap for the careless".

Hopefully the temperature finally soaring to double digits up here this weekend will be the start in reducing the suffering of the elderly in the coming weeks and give front line health staff some desperately needed respite. Still almost zero public discourse up here about how the elderly can avoid adding to these record breaking statistics through common sense measures like ventilation, limiting contacts during this wave etc.

There is no sign of this translating into death rates beyond the worst couple of flus from the past 20 years, but that is fatality rate I'd personally be trying to prevent through an appropriate public health communications strategy that goes beyond "don't mention the virus!". :p
 
While Scotland experienced record hospitalisation records from Covid it's appears to have been decided that Wednesday is the perfect time to move away from daily stats updates (to monthly?).

There is zero in writing to confirm this that I can see, but some of the medical experts doing the rounds are saying that Covid is incidental in between 66% and 75% of the hospitalisations. This seems hard to accept given the vanilla Omicron rate had comparable cases levels in society and an equivalent rate of "over a third" (believed 33-40%). The subvariant would have to be radically different to lead to such a change. It can't be ruled out though as apparently excess deaths are not problematic (although again, I've not seen anything in writing because apparently for journalists, numbers are tough).

There is also a lot of yapping up here by the same experts about Deltacron being a real thing in Scotland. But from what I've read it remains possible this is just isolated incidents of people having both strains in their system (as was suggested in Cyprus when this was first suggested) rather than community transmission.

All in all, I remain not particularly concerned but would really benefit from a grown up analysis of the situation by a reputable person like Van Tam (by far the best of a bad bunch to me) rather than the guys and girls with really shaky track records during this pandemic.
 
Really does seem to be ramping up big style - two more people from my work have gone down with it, and my Dad tested positive on Friday
 
www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Spring booster offered to elderly and vulnerable in England

Up to five million elderly and vulnerable people will be eligible, with the first invites sent this week.
www.bbc.co.uk

Also just to put into perspective the waning of vaccines:

7FDBEAC3-F532-42EC-A9C1-C5106B04F04D.jpeg

ukhsa.blog.gov.uk

How well do vaccines protect against Omicron? What the data shows – UK Health Security Agency

The official blog of the UK Health Security Agency, providing expert insight on the organisation's work and all aspects of health security
ukhsa.blog.gov.uk ukhsa.blog.gov.uk
 
Last edited:
The_Blindside said:
www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Spring booster offered to elderly and vulnerable in England

Up to five million elderly and vulnerable people will be eligible, with the first invites sent this week.
www.bbc.co.uk

Also just to put into perspective the waning of vaccines:

View attachment 13664

ukhsa.blog.gov.uk

How well do vaccines protect against Omicron? What the data shows – UK Health Security Agency

The official blog of the UK Health Security Agency, providing expert insight on the organisation's work and all aspects of health security
ukhsa.blog.gov.uk ukhsa.blog.gov.uk
Click to expand...
Those are very different to the 90% protection from a booster remaining at 88% after 10 weeks that I referenced above. Far more believable stats in what you reference. I think there is a lot of rose tinted guff coming out from semi official channels at the moment and it is only the milder attributes of Omicron that have prevented a calamity.
 

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