[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Bada-Bing!]

Whitty and Valance standing by Bojo is just a guess and hoping from my POV. Be good to get some proper medical/scientists beside him to answer the proper questions, after the inevitable "triumphalism" and "freedom" rhetoric.

 

[McTallshort]

Well wouldn't you believe it. The week before I don't have to self isolate I catch it!

Not feeling to bad just grumpy about a loss of a weeks earnings. Nevermind move on

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Well wouldn't you believe it. The week before I don't have to self isolate I catch it!

Not feeling to bad just grumpy about a loss of a weeks earnings. Nevermind move on

My last day of isolation. Thankfully I can WFH and there was loads of sport on this weekend, prepare to be bored if you haven't got any big home projects to work on!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If Vallance and Whitty are there later I hope someone asks how much broader the immunity is gained after getting boosted?

After self isolation comes to an end/end of free LFTs - will guidance include recommendation of wearing masks to protect others from ongoing transmission? How will peeps know they are infected if they are asymptomatic once free LFTs come to an end?

I see there has been a delay in the Cabinet meeting this morning. Thrashing out further details/financial etc?

 

[Which Tyler]

Well wouldn't you believe it. The week before I don't have to self isolate I catch it!

Not feeling to bad just grumpy about a loss of a weeks earnings. Nevermind move on

Tested negative this morning; but failed at running about half way round my usual route. Muscles feel fine, cardio feels fine, just no energy, has taken about 45 minute for breathing rate to return to normal.
Currently re-testing, but probably just a really shitty day, rather than mild / asymptomatic.

 

[ncurd]

If Vallance and Whitty are there later I hope someone asks how much broader the immunity is gained after getting boosted?

After self isolation comes to an end/end of free LFTs - will guidance include recommendation of wearing masks to protect others from ongoing transmission? How will peeps know they are infected if they are asymptomatic once free LFTs come to an end?

I see there has been a delay in the Cabinet meeting this morning. Thrashing out further details/financial etc?

Cabinet is apparently delayed over the end of free of LFT's. Sunak no longer want to finance it, Javid otherwise.

Hearing CSO and CMO will prop Johnson up later.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

How will peeps know they are infected if they are asymptomatic once free LFTs come to an end?

The fundamental here is that they will argue that it doesn't matter

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The fundamental here is that they will argue that it doesn't matter

Surely it does for transmission.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Surely it does for transmission.

Which they will argue doesn't matter. If it's not really dangerous then should do we monitor it any more than any other mild ilness?

 

[ncurd]

Which they will argue doesn't matter. If it's not really dangerous then should do we monitor it any more than any other mild ilness?

With self isolation in place which is backed up through testing which other 'mild illness' has a comparable daily death rate?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

With self isolation in place which is backed up through testing which other 'mild illness' has a comparable daily death rate?

If we're including everyone who dies within 28 days of a positive test? I've no idea cause we don't measure the deadlines of diseases like that normally as far as I know

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Extra Covid booster in spring for over-75s and high risk

This is a precautionary dose ahead of a wider autumn booster programme, say UK experts.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Reiser99]

Extra Covid booster in spring for over-75s and high risk

This is a precautionary dose ahead of a wider autumn booster programme, say UK experts.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yay, keep boosting rather than vaccinate the world.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Extra Covid booster in spring for over-75s and high risk

This is a precautionary dose ahead of a wider autumn booster programme, say UK experts.

www.bbc.co.uk

That announcement kind of flies in the face of no restrictions and no free tests. A compromise would be that testing is not required (outside of carers of very vulnerable groups) but remains free for those that are exposed to the elderly.

But look at the figure quietly mentioned in that report. 88% protection against hospital admission with Omicron 10 weeks after a Pfizer or Moderna booster. That tiny drop-off is so much better than with just two doses it barely makes sense to a layperson like myself. That is the single best stat I've seen in 2 years. They should be shouting that out from the rooftops.

I was going to remain fairly isolated until maybe mid-March through personal choice, but that one stat has just completely changed my mind.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Whitty and Valance are actually coming out of hiding?

Yep. @7pm.

 

[Which Tyler]

Hmmm, I'm gonna need to see the data on that excess mortality data he's showing right now.



Looks very much like he's taking the 5-year average (so expected death rate) to include last year, whilst Delta was ripping through the population and vaccination was just getting started.

Note that the expected death rate for January/February 2022 appears to be significantly higher than for January/February 2021

 

[Which Tyler]

Hmmm, I'm gonna need to see the data on that excess mortality data he's showing right now.

Had a look at the actual figures, and yes, he has done exactly what I suggested. For the first 5 weeks of the year, he's added about 800 deaths to the weekly total (about 6.5% increase) compared to the average used in 2020 and 2021.


He didn't need to though, as the 2022 figure would still be below that average - albeit by less than it appeared on his graph.


Of course, as with last year, the precautions we're all taking for covid also work on flu, and we've had a very low flu year again - despite (valid) fears back in the Autumn.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Had a look at the actual figures, and yes, he has done exactly what I suggested. For the first 5 weeks of the year, he's added about 800 deaths to the weekly total (about 6.5% increase) compared to the average used in 2020 and 2021.


He didn't need to though, as the 2022 figure would still be below that average - albeit by less than it appeared on his graph.


Of course, as with last year, the precautions we're all taking for covid also work on flu, and we've had a very low flu year again - despite (valid) fears back in the Autumn.

Genuine question btw - what was the rise year on year generally? What was the impact of the aging population v improving medicine?

Idk whether you looked at that, just wondering!

 

[Which Tyler]

Genuine question btw - what was the rise year on year generally? What was the impact of the aging population v improving medicine?

Idk whether you looked at that, just wondering!

rise in the 5 year average?

Wk1: 1,123
Wk2: 0,361
Wk3: 0,763
Wk4: 0,910
Wk5: 0,859

As for impact of an aging population, and improved medicine - Covid's taken the "low hanging fruit" of the vulnerable over the last 2 years, rather than waiting for flu / hypothermia to carry them off. Medicine in general hasn't made any huge enough strides in the last 7 years to make a difference on the background, but obviously has made a pretty huge difference in the management of Covid cases.

Does that answer your question? or have I misunderstood it?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

rise in the 5 year average?

Wk1: 1,123
Wk2: 0,361
Wk3: 0,763
Wk4: 0,910
Wk5: 0,859

As for impact of an aging population, and improved medicine - Covid's taken the "low hanging fruit" of the vulnerable over the last 2 years, rather than waiting for flu / hypothermia to carry them off. Medicine in general hasn't made any huge enough strides in the last 7 years to make a difference on the background, but obviously has made a pretty huge difference in the management of Covid cases.

Does that answer your question? or have I misunderstood it?

Yeah that's it thanks! I was just wondering whether maybe the graph showing av death rate was adjusting for expected increase pre Covid really