[COVID-19] General Discussion

[Which Tyler]

COVID No. 1 cause of death among Montana Native Americans

COVID-19 became the number-one cause of death among Native Americans in 2020.

billingsgazette.com

Are you suggesting that there actually is a cultural link between Exeter Chiefs and Native Americans?

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Good tips for Xmas.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59769969

But Today's reported cases up to almost 120k. Hospital cases past 1k, but from 4 days ago.

London reportedly to have 1 in 30 or c.300k of cases.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I feel like I've been able to interpret the available data well enough up to and including Delta to have a fair idea of how things would go with the pandemic up until now, but Omicron vs US pharmacies boosters has got me completely stumped. South Korea has managed to keep a lid on infections with restrictions, but is still averaging an eye-watering 1% fatality rate on cases (roughly 75 deaths per day compared to 7.5k cases) and we know they are a top performer in identifying actual cases, so this 1% is likely pretty accurate. But almost no other country is making me think something apocalyptic is around the corner for vaccinated people.

South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The SAGE leak said their estimates are 600 to 6000(!) deaths a day coming our way in the UK (for context, a terrible flu killing 20,000 in a UK winter of 4 months equates to around 250 deaths a day). With reports of Omicron having 30-70% of the potency of Delta, plus the positive noises around booster efficacy I am erring towards thinking we might 'get away' with peaking at an average of around 500 deaths per day (below SAGE beat case) compared to the shameful (and completely predictable) peak of 1500 a day last winter. As a society, 500 deaths per day (or double a terrible flu) is something politically and socially tolerable.

The problem is that deaths appear to spiral out of control globally when a health system is overwhelmed. The increased infectiousness of Omicron could easily bury the health service and then patients who would ordinarily survive will be put in jeopardy. So that is one key variable.

The other key variable is ebbing booster efficacy. Israel is already rolling out 4th jabs and I think this will become essential this winter in Europe. The most vulnerable in the UK got their booster in October (and maybe even September?) so it is hard to see those boosters lasting through until April, when we know levels can still be very high.

I don't personally subscribe to the anti-Chinese sentiment around Covid, no matter what I think of their government. But even they may be in trouble soon with Omicron. They are locking down a city of 13 million people (in a land where lockdown means lockdown), their Sinovac vaccines don't handle Omicron adequately (which may also be problematic for countries that imported them) and their government will never let the people in their territory get the US vaccines. As I have long suspected (since Beta appeared in South Africa and South Africa sold all their Astra Zeneca), sadly the US vaccines of Pfizer and Moderna really are the gold standard, way beyond all others in dealing with mutations. This will prove unfortunate for people in countries who are politically opposed to the US (or are sadly unable to pay top dollar for the best jags) as everywhere else these two jags will become the only show in town out of the existing vaccines. The longer it goes without other companies being able to replicate the efficacy of those two jags even for less mutated strains the more those two jags look like some kind of medical miracle and that humanity has caught a huge break with them.

China's Sinovac COVID-19 booster weaker against Omicron- Hong Kong study

Three doses of Sinovac's CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine do not produce adequate levels of antibodies to fight the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, researchers from Hong Kong said in a statement.

www.reuters.com

And finally, for lovers of apocalyptic science fiction this is my anti-festive tale. Very grim and completely speculative. The WHO reiterates the only global way out of this situation is if 70%+ of the global population is vaccinated (with effective vaccines). It is clear with some governments in the Americas, Eastern Europe and Africa that this will simply never happen globally. So the solution is either more fantastic vaccines tailored to mutations OR a massive and fundamental shift in how societies value personal space and hygiene OR an unexpectedly sudden ebbing of the virus into the background a bit. I'm not sure we can bank on any of those.

I genuinely wonder if we will see a situation during peak demand in some countries where Covid passports (or a legit vaccine exemption) are a prerequisite to receiving full medical attention for Covid19. With those refusing to get jabbed effectively refusing to help themselves they are simply being given a bed, a drip and the phone number of a private hospital if they have the cash to pay for independent treatment.

The wilfully unvaccinated would get none of the finite supply of oxygen, finite supply of pills or finite supply of nurses' and doctor's time. In the worst case scenarios I can see this being morally justifiable so that those that try to help themselves and society out of this mess by getting vaccinated are not denied the best possible care because the wilfully unvaccinated are taking the vast majority of medical resource and attention. I can actually see the case for NOT doing this becoming the morally unjustifiable. Hopefully it'll never come to that but possibly something to look out for internationally.

As ever, I'm not a medical person. Just some internet chump who was previously employed to draw conclusions and identify patterns from very imperfect datasets (often with wildly incorrect conclusions).

 

[duncanb]

Last week London 199 with covid on ventilation in ICU,
This week 196 .
Peek maybe maybe not but possible a sign of Omicron is not as bad as Delta only time will tell however.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Covid: £10m Bounce Back Loan fraudsters jailed

Two men are jailed for a total of 33 years for laundering £70m, of which £10m came from Covid loans.

www.bbc.co.uk

Another downside of Covid. Criminals taking advantage. This one being one of the most egregious.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Hospital admissions put new year Covid restrictions on a knife edge — The Times and The Sunday Times

A decision on whether to impose further Covid restrictions in time for New Year’s Eve is poised on a knife edge after latest figures showed rising hospital admissions in London. A total of 386 Covid-19 admissions were recorded by hospitals in London — up 92 per cent week-on-week and the highest...

apple.news

"Among those who received an initial two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, protection was about 60 per cent two to four weeks after a Pfizer or Moderna booster. It then dropped to 35 per cent with a Pfizer booster and 45 per cent with Moderna ten weeks after the jab.

Officials stressed that this decline was only seen against mild symptomatic cases. Scientists expect protection against severe disease, which draws on different parts of the immune system, to be significantly higher and long- lasting."

"The latest report, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), showed that for people who received a first course of Pfizer, vaccine effectiveness was about 70 per cent after a Pfizer booster, dropping to 45 per cent after ten weeks. It stayed at about 70 to 75 per cent after a Moderna booster for up to nine weeks afterwards.

Professor Paul Hunter, an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said annual booster shots were likely for the elderly and vulnerable. "Vaccinating these groups in the autumn, like we do for flu, has real potential," he said. It was less likely that younger groups would need the same top-ups, he said.

The UKHSA also found that people infected with the Omicron variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital for at least one night compared with the Delta strain. They were also 45 per cent less likely to visit A&E."

To give an idea of how long boosters give protection against symptomatic disease. Not necessarily severe disease and hospitalisation.

 

[McTallshort]

Hospital admissions put new year Covid restrictions on a knife edge — The Times and The Sunday Times

A decision on whether to impose further Covid restrictions in time for New Year’s Eve is poised on a knife edge after latest figures showed rising hospital admissions in London. A total of 386 Covid-19 admissions were recorded by hospitals in London — up 92 per cent week-on-week and the highest...

apple.news

"Among those who received an initial two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, protection was about 60 per cent two to four weeks after a Pfizer or Moderna booster. It then dropped to 35 per cent with a Pfizer booster and 45 per cent with Moderna ten weeks after the jab.

Officials stressed that this decline was only seen against mild symptomatic cases. Scientists expect protection against severe disease, which draws on different parts of the immune system, to be significantly higher and long- lasting."

"The latest report, from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), showed that for people who received a first course of Pfizer, vaccine effectiveness was about 70 per cent after a Pfizer booster, dropping to 45 per cent after ten weeks. It stayed at about 70 to 75 per cent after a Moderna booster for up to nine weeks afterwards.

Professor Paul Hunter, an adviser to the World Health Organisation, said annual booster shots were likely for the elderly and vulnerable. "Vaccinating these groups in the autumn, like we do for flu, has real potential," he said. It was less likely that younger groups would need the same top-ups, he said.

The UKHSA also found that people infected with the Omicron variant were between 50 and 70 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital for at least one night compared with the Delta strain. They were also 45 per cent less likely to visit A&E."

To give an idea of how long boosters give protection against symptomatic disease. Not necessarily severe disease and hospitalisation.

Sorry I have had 3 jabs, worn masks when I didn't have too, taken vitamins and zinc, kept exercising and lateral flow testing but I'm not getting a 4th jab in easter.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I felt worse after each of my jabs then I did when I actually had COVID.

I understand the broader, minute risks to my health but it's rather tiresome

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Sorry I have had 3 jabs, worn masks when I didn't have too, taken vitamins and zinc, kept exercising and lateral flow testing but I'm not getting a 4th jab in easter.

As the article says it wanes against symptomatic disease, so severe disease is the main thing it should hold up against and hospitalisations. Still, need the data to back it up. We haven't even heard/seen data on long Covid for Omicron.

Even Israel will roll out a fourth jab to over 60s first and one specific to Omicron should be ready by Easter, but will still take time to roll out across all age groups.

It's the most effective tool we currently have. But it is not 100% full proof.

I felt worse after each of my jabs then I did when I actually had COVID.

I understand the broader, minute risks to my health but it's rather tiresome

But none of them were serious enough to send you to hospital, including catching covid?

And that is the issue taking the vaccine isn't just about you.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

But none of them were serious enough to send you to hospital, including catching covid?

And that is the issue taking the vaccine isn't just about you.

Yep fully aware of that. It's still hard to pitch it to the younger generations when they are more often experiencing similar things as well as being targeted by measures when they aren't the ones it's for.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Yeah, fourth jab will be a very hard sell, and I imagine uptake will he a fraction of the first 3

Doesn't help it's chances when all the news reports etc is saying Omicron is nowhere near as bad as first thought

 

[ncurd]

Yeah, fourth jab will be a very hard sell, and I imagine uptake will he a fraction of the first 3

Doesn't help it's chances when all the news reports etc is saying Omicron is nowhere near as bad as first thought

Doesn't help the data also has two worrying factors that are buried in all the reports. Most infections are in Under 40's, data for those over is still lacking. Infections are soaring so its already putting strains on the system even if hospitalisations aren't yet, if infections skyrocket eventually hospitalisations will as well. All the data tells us is we can take more infections before it happens not that it won't.

Just took LFT for Christmas all clear.

I'll take a 4th jab because its a mild inconvenience to get them and reaction to them has been negligible.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Also if you want to travel to certain countries their definition of fully vaccinated may also change as including future boosters. Travel insurance purposes also.

 

[McTallshort]

Also if you want to travel to certain countries their definition of fully vaccinated may also change as including future boosters. Travel insurance purposes also.

Well let's see what happens with that given how low many countries vaccination rates are.

 

[saulan]

Also if you want to travel to certain countries their definition of fully vaccinated may also change as including future boosters. Travel insurance purposes also.

This was why I was even more adamant I get my booster before traveling to SA for Christmas. Given how quickly things can change and how little information can be provided, I'd rather be safe and be fully booster vaccinated than find out a month later when I try to go back that I'm classified as non-vaccinated and need to do some kinda hotel quarantine. (Happy to quarantine at home, but the hotel quarantine system has just been an expensive mess).

 

[Bada-Bing!]

122k recorded cases, 1.1k hospitalisations from 4 days ago, but those needing ventilation still broadly flat across the country at 842.

Keep safe and well this Xmas weekend.

 

[The Seeker]

Wishing peace to all this holiday season. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

 

[The Seeker]

New York makes fake COVID vaccination cards a state crime

Culprits can face up to a year in prison.

www.cnet.com

 

[TRF_Olyy]

American Propaganda is wild