@Thingimubob there a big difference between Munster in the Aviva (A stadium we never like) in Pro 14 final vs Leinster (who love the Aviva and are at home) in a European Cup semi final.
I'm huge fan of Scarlets and what they have developed. But sorry they have not been in these waters recently. I'd be happy if wrong and it tight good game but Leinster by a gap is what I feel
Very true and I definitely agree with you that these are new waters for the Scarlets, and a lot will come down to how they respond to the pressure. However the Scarlets have showed over the last two seasons that they're making great strides in that respect, and have done fantastically well at times to get the job done when the odds and pressure has been against them.
Also agree that there's a big difference between facing Munster and Leinster in the Aviva, which would be more of a factor for me if the Scarlets hadn't beaten Leinster in the semi final at the RDS last year - a stadium that Leinster have a far better record than they do at Lansdowne Road in recent years.
Think Alpha Bro said they had a 95% win record and RDS since 2009/10 vs a 70% record at the Aviva? Although that stat will be slightly different now after Treviso last weekend!
Either way - Leinster clear favourites and if they play at their best (which will mean stopping the Scarlets doing what they do best) then can only see Leinster winning comfortably. However if Leinster don't shut the Scarlets down, then we know they score tries for fun, have a mobile back row that can win pens at the breakdown, with one of the best kickers in the game ready to turn that into points.
For me I reckon it could be a hell of a game!
Only true if Leinster have been backed in.
Saying that Scarlets winning as underdogs twice shows that the bookies underestimate them smacks to me of a lack of understanding of probability. If the match was played 100 times, maybe these examples would have been the only time they'd have won. If the bookies do indeed underestimate them, I'd expect to see them covering the handicap significantly more often than not over a significant sample size.
While that's true looking at it from a purely statistical point of view, doesn't really factor in the surrounding context - the key aspect being the Scarlets' form at the time.
At the time, the Scarlets run of form at the end of last season was nigh on perfect, and they were playing easily the most complete rugby in the league with a ridiculous amount of confidence. This really showed in both performances - they tore Leinster apart in the first half, and were pretty dominant up until Steff Evans' red card. They then went on to destroy Munster pretty much from the off in the final, to the point that result was pretty much confirmed by the half hour mark.
That's why I think the Scarlets were underrated in those two games, as the odds simply did not reflect how well the Scarlets were playing at the time
just hope the game lives up to the hype!
