Canada: A Realistic Assessment

[CDN_Rugby]

With Canada's first warm-up game due to take place this upcoming saturday against the U.S.A. Eagles at BMO Field in Toronto, I would like to know what everyone expects from Canada in their games against New Zealand, France, Tonga, and Japan. While New Zealand is obviously out of reach (and France slightly less so) I think this Canuck side has the potential to go 2-2 and directly qualify for the 2015 WC. I know a lot of people tend to look at the Canadian roster and lament the lack of professionalism, however, what most people don't realise is that Canada's game day roster has quality professional experience.

1) Hubert Buydens (Prairie Wolf Pack & RGC 1404)
2) Pat Riordan (B.C. Bears and formerly of Pontypool) (c)
3) Jason Marshall (B.C. Bears & RGC 1404)
4) Jamie Cudmore (Clerment Auvergne)
5) Brian Erichsen (B.C. Bears)
6) Chauncey O'Toole (Atlantic Rock, formerly of Glasgow Warriors)
7) Adam Kleeberger (Unattached, formerly of Rotherham & Auckland)
8) Aaron Carpenter (Plymouth Albion, formerly of Coventry)

9) Ed Fairhurst (B.C. Bears, formerly of Edinburgh and Cornish Pirates)
10) Ander Monro (B.C. Bears, formerly of Edinburgh) (vc)
11) Ciaran Hearn (Atlantic Rock & RGC 1404)
12) Phil Mackenzie (Esher and London Wasps)
13) DTH Van Der Merwe (Glasgow Warriors, formerly of Saracens)
14) James Pitchard (Bedford, formerly of Northhampton and Perpignan)
15) Matt Evans (Unattached, formerly of Gwent-Newport Dragons)

16) Scott Franklin (Prairie Wolf Pack, formerly of Cornish Pirates & Albi)
17) Andew Tiedemann (Prairie Wolf Pack)
18) Jebb Sinclair (London Irish)
19) Nanyak Dala (Prairie Wolf Pack, formerly of Natal)
20) Jamie Mackenzie (Esher)
21) Ryan Smith (Prairie Wolf Pack, formerly of Mountauban)
22) Conor Trainor (B.C. Bears)

Indeed, this squad isn't lacking experience, especially when seasoned professionals like Kevin Tkachuk (Glasgow), Josh Jackson (Bordeaux), and Luke Tait (numerous Top 14 and Pro D2 teams) are left off the 30 man roster.

How does this team shake down against the other squads in their pool?

Tonga
I like Canada's chances against Tonga, especially considering they will be playing Canada with a short turn around after a sure beating by New Zealand. If Canada can keep its players healthy (on that topic, four warm-up games is too many!) I like their chances to beat Tonga by 7+

France
Pretty much a given that Canada will face a drubbing, but people thought the same thing against Wales in 2007 when Canada shocked a lot of pundits by leading the games after sixty minutes. It all depends on what France team shows up. Conventional wisdom says France by 30+, but given how Canada played when they beat a strong France "A" side last year (despite Canada fielding far from its strongest XV) anything can happen. Realistically, Canada has the slimmest of chances, but the games are played for a reason. Huge upsets sometimes happen.



Japan
Without a doubt the most important game for Canada, Japan probably goes in as the slight favourites. I suppose it's a testament to how much Japanese domestic rugby has improved that almost their entire pre-WC squad is based in Japan (save for two players). Japan also destroyed Canada in back to back tests in Autumn 2009, but I'm not sure how much stock you can put into those results considering they were almost two years ago and Canada was represented by a less than stellar side. Thankfully for Canada, they're going into this game on a nice long break which should help on the injury front. My head says Japan, but my heart says Canada. Flip a coin to decide who wins this game.

New Zealand
No chance at all to win. If Canada can go into damage control mode and keep the difference to 50 points (and maybe score a try?) it will be considered a huge success. To be honest, lose or lose badly, I'll just keep watching this on a loop...



I think Canada can go 2-2, how do you think they will fare?

 

[Darwin]

Really hard to know how Canada will go - it wouldn't surprise me if they went 2-2, but likewise it wouldn't surprise me if they go 0-4.

I think people are really underestimating Tonga's chances - I expect they will be a far bigger threat than Japan at the RWC. Japan did win the Pacific Nations cup (they beat Tonga 28-27 too), but unlike the other nations involved they actually had a full strength squad at the tournament. If Tonga includes the likes of Aulika, Tonga'uihau, Lutui, Finau Maka, Moa, Piutau et. al. (all of who didn't take any part in the Pacific Nations Cup) they are going to be a completely different team, that could well even give France a fright (if France don't play to their best).

You are right to point out the short gap Tonga has between its match v NZ and its match v Canada. However I don't expect Tonga will play a full strength team v NZ, so all of their key players should be well rested.

 

[LittleGuy]

Brilliant write up CDN_Rugby, my thoughts are close to yours on how are team will fare. We got lucky with the draw against Tonga who only have those couple of days rest, this is the game that I expect Canada to win although it isn't a gimme.

Japan will be a tough challenge we always seem to play poorly against the Blossoms, this could be a high paced and action packed game now that Canada has switched to a more attacking style of play. This could come down to a crucial penalty or drop goal. I am really torn here I'd say 55/45 Japan will take this game.

France are well...France LOL. I could see them running away with the contest or coming up flat in a trap game against Canada, a defensive or attacking bonus point would be a jewel in Canada's cap if they were to earn one in this contest.

We also got lucky with our draw against New Zealand, we are most likely to see NZ's weakest possible starting lineup since it is the last game of the entire pool and chances are the Ab's will long have wrapped up their seeding to the QF's. I hope Crowley takes this last game seriously and dosen't trot guys out on the pitch just to say they have played in the RWC. If we field our best(or closest to it) side and NZ field a weaker squad perhaps damage control will be possible.

Injuries could play a huge part, depth at hooker is shockingly low and Franklin who is better at prop may have to fill in here. The scrum camp really seemed to help out the guys and I'm just hoping the penalty tries are gone and we can win most of our feeds.

Goal kicking is a strength, with Pritchard, Monro as reliable options as well Hearn has a big leg for some long distance bombs. I really feel Fairhurst has to be in the #9 spot after seeing the Churchill cup, White just dosen't distribute quick enough for the new style of play. Monro looked great at flyhalf, composed and an attacking threat both for tries and drop goals.

I am incredibly excited about the squad from #4-8, even the subs and reserves here can hold their own versus some of the worlds best, no issues here unless Cudmore loses his cool. As well this is the most exciting backline in some time for Canada, I hope they don't outplay themselves and try too hard to create breaks, let the loose forwards work some gaps and then with the speed, of DTH, Pritch and others exploit those oppourtunities.

 

[CDN_Rugby]

Brilliant write up CDN_Rugby, my thoughts are close to yours on how are team will fare. We got lucky with the draw against Tonga who only have those couple of days rest, this is the game that I expect Canada to win although it isn't a gimme.

Japan will be a tough challenge we always seem to play poorly against the Blossoms, this could be a high paced and action packed game now that Canada has switched to a more attacking style of play. This could come down to a crucial penalty or drop goal. I am really torn here I'd say 55/45 Japan will take this game.

France are well...France LOL. I could see them running away with the contest or coming up flat in a trap game against Canada, a defensive or attacking bonus point would be a jewel in Canada's cap if they were to earn one in this contest.

We also got lucky with our draw against New Zealand, we are most likely to see NZ's weakest possible starting lineup since it is the last game of the entire pool and chances are the Ab's will long have wrapped up their seeding to the QF's. I hope Crowley takes this last game seriously and dosen't trot guys out on the pitch just to say they have played in the RWC. If we field our best(or closest to it) side and NZ field a weaker squad perhaps damage control will be possible.

Injuries could play a huge part, depth at hooker is shockingly low and Franklin who is better at prop may have to fill in here. The scrum camp really seemed to help out the guys and I'm just hoping the penalty tries are gone and we can win most of our feeds.

Goal kicking is a strength, with Pritchard, Monro as reliable options as well Hearn has a big leg for some long distance bombs. I really feel Fairhurst has to be in the #9 spot after seeing the Churchill cup, White just dosen't distribute quick enough for the new style of play. Monro looked great at flyhalf, composed and an attacking threat both for tries and drop goals.

I am incredibly excited about the squad from #4-8, even the subs and reserves here can hold their own versus some of the worlds best, no issues here unless Cudmore loses his cool. As well this is the most exciting backline in some time for Canada, I hope they don't outplay themselves and try too hard to create breaks, let the loose forwards work some gaps and then with the speed, of DTH, Pritch and others exploit those oppourtunities.

Well said, I agree with your comments on While entirely. While I still think he is a good prospect, he had a shocker at the Churchill Cup. Oddly enough, the year previous when he played the entire game against France "A" he was superb. I haven't seen enough of Jamie Mackenzie, but while I would likely take him ahead of White, Crowley probably has other ideas. Perhaps White will be to Crowley what the Pletch's were to Suggit?

And by including Franklin in the game day squad I wasn't insinuating that he would be a reserve hooker. Marshall acquitted himself well as a hooker against Georgia last year and seems to be the choice if Riordan goes down. In the event that that happens, bump Marshall from 3 to 2 and bring Franklin in at tighthead. Hamilton was horrid against Russia and seems way to small to be a hooker at the international level. I agree though, our depth at hooker is bad.

Looking forward to the game on saturday. It should be a good indicator of where Crowley has this team at.

 

[CDN_Rugby]

Interesting interview with coach Kieran Crowley and Aaron Carpenter...

 

[LittleGuy]

Well said, I agree with your comments on While entirely. While I still think he is a good prospect, he had a shocker at the Churchill Cup. Oddly enough, the year previous when he played the entire game against France "A" he was superb. I haven't seen enough of Jamie Mackenzie, but while I would likely take him ahead of White, Crowley probably has other ideas. Perhaps White will be to Crowley what the Pletch's were to Suggit?

And by including Franklin in the game day squad I wasn't insinuating that he would be a reserve hooker. Marshall acquitted himself well as a hooker against Georgia last year and seems to be the choice if Riordan goes down. In the event that that happens, bump Marshall from 3 to 2 and bring Franklin in at tighthead. Hamilton was horrid against Russia and seems way to small to be a hooker at the international level. I agree though, our depth at hooker is bad.

Looking forward to the game on saturday. It should be a good indicator of where Crowley has this team at.

Yeah sorry about that CDN_Rugby I keep forgetting that Marshall can fill in at hooker, second time you've pointed it out to me, yeah Hamilton was out of that Russia game REALLY quickly in favour of Riordan. Are you going to the game? Or catching it on TSN?

I think we will see Crowley field close to our best possible 22 to please the large home crowd but we could see a more experimental squad in the return leg in Colorado.

 

[CDN_Rugby]

I'll be watching it on TSN. It's hard to see a lot of live national team games when you're stuck in Saskatchewan.

And as far as the second leg goes, I'd like to see it be our full strength squad. Perhaps it's just the fact that I never like to lose to the Yanks, or maybe I just think it would be good to give the O' Tooles, DTH's, and Cudmore's a break while the fringe players test themselves in Australia. Either way...

Also, do you have any idea what the expected attendance is for the game at BMO Field? Are you going to the game?

 

[LittleGuy]

I'll be watching it on TSN. It's hard to see a lot of live national team games when you're stuck in Saskatchewan.

And as far as the second leg goes, I'd like to see it be our full strength squad. Perhaps it's just the fact that I never like to lose to the Yanks, or maybe I just think it would be good to give the O' Tooles, DTH's, and Cudmore's a break while the fringe players test themselves in Australia. Either way...

Also, do you have any idea what the expected attendance is for the game at BMO Field? Are you going to the game?

Yes I will be heading got to get my ticket though I think they are expecting a decent turnout, it will be the biggest crowd for a Canada, USA match guranteed. They are worried about a large walk up crowd which I was going to do but I guess i'll just fork over a few bucks to ticketmaster to avoid a big line. I think we will see the ends filled but I am worried about the expensive seats they were going for around 90-100 dollars many were balking at the cost.

 

[kovana]

Just a small question.. What is currently the biggest crowd for a rugby match in Canada?

 

[CDN_Rugby]

Just a small question.. What is currently the biggest crowd for a rugby match in Canada?

I'm not too sure but I imagine it's around 14,000. However, that record (by all accounts) should be beaten this weekend when Canada plays the U.S.A. in Toronto.

 

[nadoss]

I'd agree that their biggest game will be Japan. Japan has just come off of a Pacific Nations Cup ***le, and are going to be tough to beat. Good luck to my friends up north!

 

[kovana]

I'm not too sure but I imagine it's around 14,000. However, that record (by all accounts) should be beaten this weekend when Canada plays the U.S.A. in Toronto.

... So will be over 14K.. Any word on whether it will be a full house or even over 20K?

 

[CDN_Rugby]

... So will be over 14K.. Any word on whether it will be a full house or even over 20K?

No idea if it will crack 20k. But given the sheer geography of Canada (about twice as large as Europe as a whole), the lack of a home stadium, and the fact that Rugby Canada has traditionally done a poor job of marketing international tests has always hampered attendance. I think BMO Field (the home of Toronto FC) holds around 25k, and given the surprisingly good job Rugby Canada has dont at marketing this test with the U.S.A., I don't think 20k is out of the question. I guess we'll see come saturday though.

Toronto is also a city of around five million people, about the size of Ireland. Really, it shouldn't be difficult to get 20k people out to see a game, let alone a game against Canada's biggest rival.

 

[LittleGuy]

Southern Ontario is pretty densely populated, even outside Toronto there are medium to large size cities. As well some American fans are expected to cross the border and head to the game(Detroit and Buffalo are easily driveable). I am about an hour and a half away and will be making my way up to the game. This is the first test in Ontario since May 2009, and the first in Canada since November 2009 so fans are really dying to see the team before they head out to Oz and then NZ.

 

[Feicarsinn]

No idea if it will crack 20k. But given the sheer geography of Canada (about twice as large as Europe as a whole), the lack of a home stadium, and the fact that Rugby Canada has traditionally done a poor job of marketing international tests has always hampered attendance. I think BMO Field (the home of Toronto FC) holds around 25k, and given the surprisingly good job Rugby Canada has dont at marketing this test with the U.S.A., I don't think 20k is out of the question. I guess we'll see come saturday though.

Toronto is also a city of around five million people, about the size of Ireland. Really, it shouldn't be difficult to get 20k people out to see a game, let alone a game against Canada's biggest rival.

False. Canada is slightly smaller than Europe. About 1,000,000 km^2 smaller.

 

[LittleGuy]

I'm guessing CDN_rugby was not including any of the Russian territories as part of Europe, thats what I would assume numbers seem too far off to be any thing else.

 

[LittleGuy]

Sorry my edit function is working, CDN_rugby was staing the size of the European Union not that of the continent of Europe..

 

[CDN_Rugby]

For whatever reason I was thinking about the Eurozone countries, thanks for clarifying. That said, no other country (save for Russia) has to deal with the problems geography poses.

 

[Dougydeluxe]

I am upset that we did not stick with the old school Canadian Jerseys (seen in the video) they looked so sick, Like lumberjacks about to go mow down some trees. If they had stuck with those, I would have for sure bought a jersey.

 

[IKALETAHI]

If you were to have a look at the squads You would think Canada would go 0-4. Canada though have a good record against Tonga, though Tonga looks alot more professional these days(Top players able to play, Time together). Tonga also scored the most points in the PNC with a "B"side(missing Tonga'uiha,Pulu,Aulika,Maka,Moa,Fatafehi,Piutau). I think the Japan game will be another match Canada will target. I'll pick Japan to be too strong after thrashing Canada back to back in 2009. Then you can consider the scary fact that Japan has improved alot since then(Could field a 2nd XV that play better than they did in 09)