Gatland will pick size over skill. He knows his style and won't change.
A backline of
Murray
Sexton or Farrell
North
Henshaw
Roberts
Possibly Maitland
Hogg
This wouldn't suprise me
Roberts shouldn't go at all. He's well past his best, totally one dimensional, and his power counts for nothing against NZ. In fact arguably power is not the way to break the NZ line so going with heavy lumbering centres would be a mistake.
JJ is an obvious choice at 13.
Hogg has to the the starting 15. Lethal on the counter and just solid in D.
I really like the idea of Murray, Sexton Faz axis. So many playmaking options and all solid defenders. If that lot clicked they could control any game.
I think May has a shot. His Pace makes him lethal and combine that with the Irish kicking game that's a handy combo, especially if you put North on the other wing.
Manu is never going on the lions tour. He's got a lot of work to do before he's even back for England and with the current crop of players we have he's gonna struggle to oust someone.
I think Ireland have found the consistent way to defeat the NZ, all be it they oft stumble at the final hurdle. Unrelenting physical defence, hard hits in the rucks, always competing, slowing down their ball, disrupting their style of play, and winning turn overs. Defend them to death, and only play with the ball deep in their half, forcing either the long counter, or the kick return.
Allow them to start spinning the ball wide at will and they will stretch you to breaking point. That's why JJ is a great option. He's so tactically aware he keeps attacking teams honest and would make any 10 second guess the looping long pass.
There is such a good crop of potential lions this time round I think there's every chance they could turn NZ over. That would be something to see.