All Blacks End of Year Tour squad

[Darwin]

Even though we haven't yet finished the Rugby Championship for the year, the AB's end of year tour isn't far away. I understand that a 32-man squad will be named - who do people think will be in that squad? I think the vast majority of the squad picks itself - personally I think they will simply add three players to the 29 players who have been involved in the RC thus far. Those three players would be:

- Another hooker. I would prefer Elliot, but the selectors have also shown some interest in Coles.
- Another lock. I get a (bad) feeling it could be Ali Williams if he is fit, but I would definitely prefer Clarke (who I think will be very close).
- Another halfback. Though Kerr-Barlow hasn't been in the greatest of form for Waikato I think his Super Rugby form will see him grab this third spot. Andy Ellis is another option, but I don't think they will take both him and Weepu (personally I would include him and drop Weepu....).

Of the 29-man RC squad the only player who I could really see dropping out would be Adam Thomson, as he hasn't yet signed with the NZRFU yet, and he appears to only be the 6th ranked loosie in the current AB's squad. If he was to drop out I can't see an obvious replacements (assuming the AB's still want 6 loose forwards). Though between Cane and McCaw the AB's have openside flanker well covered I wonder whether they would consider bringing in Matt Todd or Luke Braid - both have been consistent all season, and the AB's may need a bit more openside cover next season when McCaw has his wee break!

 

[donmcdazzle]

Shame Perenara got injured as I could have seen him touring. I think he has a more polished game than Kerr-Barlow, who is sometimes a bit messy with his clearances.

I heard that Elliott didn't behave very well last time he toured and has sort of been blacklisted from AB touring parties.. not sure how true that is but you would think on ability alone he is a far better option than Coles (who has had his share of off-field issues too).

Ali Williams will probably make the squad, based on being good in about 2007. Does my head in that he keeps getting picked when he hasn't had a good game for any team in about 4 years.

They may take a young loosie, I don't think Matt Todd is on the same level as Cane or McCaw, I wouldn't feel all that comforatable with him playing 7 for the AB's. Luke Braid is more likely due to versatility although I think he is as good as he will ever be, and I don't think that is good enough for the AB's either.

A real bolter would be Ardie Savea, who is obviously nowhere near ready but he has played better rugby at senior level than either Luke Whitelock or Brad Shields who both made that training squad earlier this year. That will never happen though I wouldn't think.

 

[Darwin]

Shame Perenara got injured as I could have seen him touring. I think he has a more polished game than Kerr-Barlow, who is sometimes a bit messy with his clearances.

I heard that Elliott didn't behave very well last time he toured and has sort of been blacklisted from AB touring parties.. not sure how true that is but you would think on ability alone he is a far better option than Coles (who has had his share of off-field issues too).

Ali Williams will probably make the squad, based on being good in about 2007. Does my head in that he keeps getting picked when he hasn't had a good game for any team in about 4 years.

They may take a young loosie, I don't think Matt Todd is on the same level as Cane or McCaw, I wouldn't feel all that comforatable with him playing 7 for the AB's. Luke Braid is more likely due to versatility although I think he is as good as he will ever be, and I don't think that is good enough for the AB's either.

A real bolter would be Ardie Savea, who is obviously nowhere near ready but he has played better rugby at senior level than either Luke Whitelock or Brad Shields who both made that training squad earlier this year. That will never happen though I wouldn't think.

Yeah it is a shame that Perenara has been injured, as I think he is probably the most complete halfback in the country - despite his young age!

The problem we have at lock is that we don't really have a 4th lock putting up their hand and saying 'pick me' at the moment. There are a whole pile of locks that are good ITM Cup/Super rugby players, but there aren't any that standout as players that will excel at the next level (I'm think the likes of Hoeata, Bekhuis, Broadhurst, Eaton, Clarke etc). I really hope Boric gets back playing rugby, as I have a lot of time for him.

In terms of loosies, I tend to agree on Todd. I actually think he would be a pretty reliable option at 7 for the AB's, but just lacks that extra edge required to match it with the worlds best. I'm a massive fan of Luke Braid, and I think he is still improving. He took a while to develop, but he was in dominant form over the later half of the Blues season, and like Cane and McCaw he is more than just a breakdown specialist. I don't think the AB's will pick him, but I personally wouldn't mind seeing him in Black sometime soon....

 

[Larksea]

interesting you say elliot is in the dogs box, I thought he performed more than adequately on the 2010 end of year tour and it was strange to see him drop down the pecking order come the world cup and lose his spot to Flynn - may be truth in that idea.

I also look at Messam and wonder if the reason he was dropped in 2011 is because he joked around a bit too much at training, he seems to have gotten the message though - and credits learning when to take it easy and when to be serious as part of his comeback.

TKB I would not have in the squad - now way, he is brilliant at times but he's still inconsistent and his kicking is 50/50. Even at ITM cup level sometimes when he tries to pull off a big play it backfires in the worst possible way. Perenara for sure would be the next pick but he's injured. Scary but I think he could actually be a better player than Aaron Smith simply because he has genuine x-factor with his speed and power. Beyond that in all honestly I think Brendon Leonard is worth a look at simply because unlike Elis he is genuinely great at clearing the ball fast and he has arguably the best box type kick of any halfback in the NZ game. I think he's clearly a better 9 than weepu over the last year and with Mathewson gone after what was a bad year overall for him at the blues Leaonrd is comfortably one of the top 5 halfbacks in NZ and though Elis is a great reader of the game he's so god dam slow at clearing the ball it chokes the All Black backline to death. In all seriousness because of that I would prefer Willie Heinz - even the Canterbury and Crusaders backlines have more time when Willie is on the field compared to Elis.

What they do at 7 is interesting. I honestly don't think Todd would let NZ down given half a chance to be in the All Blacks, he's strong as hell and can tackle anything all day long. and he's a more than handy support player. I actually feel he's been a bit hard done by as far as AB selection goes. He's young and toiled away at super rugby and actually been very good with a big workload. Clearly Cane was selected ahead of him because of the influence of Ian Foster, mostly a bench warmer for the chiefs - not much gametime ans straight into the all blacks. I can't help but think if someone other than Foster had become Hansen's assistant then it may well have been Matt Todd that made the All Blacks squad - and I recon he would have looked bloody good against Ireland as well.

Now you have Ardie Savea who has blasted onto the scene this ITM cup. The all black coaches said it would have something special for a player to be selected as part of the All Blacks from ITM cup form but that is exactly what Savea has done. Messam, Vito and Cane need to keel lifting their game - you would have to say Thomson's days in the All Blacks are numbered. He is older than Messam, Vito and Cane and has not featured in the Rugby Championship.

then you got locks Ali Williams vs. Craig Clarke for that last spot. Jason Eaton feeling hard done by again. I still like James Broadhurst as a potential future all black - maybe a good candidate got an EOY tour. Obviously this is with Boric out of the picture, a guy I think should be an automatic selection if he's fit.

 

[admartian]

I at least want to see what Todd can do at International level so they should take him. A shame that Perenara got injured as I think he should definitely have been taken. I do think that they keep Weepu seeing as he hasn't made enough mistakes for them to drop him.

Hooker is a bit of a bind as who's a good young prospect? Coles and Elliot are probably the youngest, but no Beaden Barrett/Aaron smith type prospect that I know of at that position.

Also ,does Fruean get a shot here as the next SBw=type? Nonu's been playing well of course but with injuries to Kahui and the departure of Toeava, we need more depth at midfield (even though we have the great Ben Smith that can cover there).

 

[Darwin]

I'm shocked that you think Leonard should be in the AB's. Our at least would be if you hadn't been picking him as the AB's halfback for the last 3-4 years

If I wanted a halfback who consistently knock the ball on at the base of the ruck, and passes the ball above the first-fives head (or at his ankles) make no mistake Leonard would be my first choice I agree that Kerr-Barlow still struggles with decision making, but I think the selectors will back themselves to get the best out of him. I think suggesting that Ellis is "damn slow at clearing the ruck ball and chokes the AB's backline to death" is a bit unfair and not that accurate. While his pass itself is a bit laboured, he actually gets to the breakdown much quicker than most other halfbacks in the country (Smith is the only halfback who is probably quicker), and gets the ball out straight away rather than waiting and deciding what to do (as the likes of Weepu and Cowan do). Because of this the backline does actually get some pretty quick ball when he is at halfback - during the RWC the AB's backline looked far better when he was at halfback rather than Weepu (or Cowan). I'm not saying he is a great international halfback, but I think last year he proved he can be a very solid option at international level. If everyone was fit my three halfback would be Smith, Perenara, and Ellis, with Kerr-Barlow a very close 4th, while Weepu and Leonard would be the best of the rest....

As for Ardie Savea - he isn't ready for test rugby. Not even close. He is not even ready for Super Rugby at this stage. He looks great in open spaces with the ball in hand, but he needs to put on some bulk if he is to compete as a forward even at Super Rugby level. He has really struggled to compete physically at times during the ITM Cup - this isn't really surprising though considering he is still only 18! There is no doubt he has phenomenal potential (probably even more so than his big brother), but he still has a lot of developing to do...

I at least want to see what Todd can do at International level so they should take him. A shame that Perenara got injured as I think he should definitely have been taken. I do think that they keep Weepu seeing as he hasn't made enough mistakes for them to drop him.

Hooker is a bit of a bind as who's a good young prospect? Coles and Elliot are probably the youngest, but no Beaden Barrett/Aaron smith type prospect that I know of at that position.

Also ,does Fruean get a shot here as the next SBw=type? Nonu's been playing well of course but with injuries to Kahui and the departure of Toeava, we need more depth at midfield (even though we have the great Ben Smith that can cover there).

I think they need to develop another midfield back, but Fruean is not the answer IMO. He is the ultimate 'flat track bully' - he looks great carving up weak defenses at ITM Cup level, but disappears the moment the going gets tough, and his defense is still shockingly poor. There are a couple of very good young midfielders coming through - Jason Emery and Francis Saili are two I particularly rate, but they are still a good couple of years away from being test prospects.

 

[nickdnz]

Agree with everything Darwin said. My picks at this stage would be:

Props: Tony Woodcock, Owen Franks, Ben Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Wyatt Crockett (Pretty much picks itself, but depending if they take 4 or 5, one of either Faumuina or Ben Franks should stay behind. That being said, I actually think the most likely to be dropped will be Wyatt Crockett - as both Franks and Faumuina can play loosehead and there is little chance Woodcock won't be starting most/all matches.

Hookers: Andrew Hore, Kevin Mealamu, Hika Elliot. Would be very suprised to not see Elliot there. Don't actually rate him all that much higher than Coles or Quentin MacDonald - and Corey Flynn is always in with a shout, but for what ever reason Elliot wasn't selected for the RC, I doubt he's been totally discarded.

Locks: Luke Romano, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Ali Williams. If Ali Williams is selected I'll be furious but not suprised. Done nothing to deserve selection in four years. Much rather see Craig Clarke get selected or even Jason Eaton (who has also been superb for Taranaki) or Josh Bekhuis. Doubt he will be though.

Loose Forwards: Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Liam Messam, Sam Cane, Victor Vito. May well see another loose forward although I don't think it will be another specialist openside (would guess Adam Thomson or Luke Braid). I actually think Matt Todd is extremely hard done by as Larksea mentioned. He's not really an x-factor player, but I think he's quite amazing. Makes more tackles than anyone and is probably the best 'fetcher' in New Zealand. Certainly don't think he'd be lost at test level (I even think he's not a bad ball carrier as a link option). Luke Braid has been impressive but I can't help but seel he could be a better blindside option than openside. He's a very strong ball carrier (looked good at 8 for that reason), has a high work rate and is physical, but I don't see him as 'great' in the fetcher role. Not saying he's not good, just not as good as the other opensides. He's looked best for the Blues at blindside and #8. Ardie Savea has been exciting and looks promising, but I agree that at 18 he is way too young. He's not big enough, he runs very well and has nice skills, but those skills aren't going to win a game against England. We should wait a few more years with Savea, hopefully the Hurricanes can sign and keep him before the Highlanders go shopping.

Halfback: Aaron Smith, Piri Weepu, Tawera Kerr-Barlow. Obviously I think that Peranara is the best halfback we've seen in a decade, but he's injured. Aaron Smith is a given, Piri Weepu gets the Ali Williams treatment to a degree - but I can't see Hansen selecting Ellis (who looked good for Crusaders and got ignored, been quieter at ITM Cup) as another experienced halfback over Kerr-Barlow, who still has a lot of issues but more long term benefits. Agree Larksea picking Leonard is as predictable as Darin wanting Ben Smith - just much less justified. No way he'd make the squad.

Fly-Halves: Daniel Carter, Aaron Cruden, Beuden Barrett. If three flyhalves are picked, those three pick themselves. Barrett will miss out if they go for only two, but with Carter being 'red flagged' as an injury risk, I think there is a good chance Barrett will come along.

Centres: Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Tamati Ellison. Can't see any bolters in midfield happening. Ellison is pretty much the only non regular centre in contention - don't see Fruean (who's been as good as always at ITM Cup level), Rene Ranger (same as Fruean to a lesser extent) or Emery (still too young) getting a shot.

Outside Backs: Cory Jane, Israel Dagg, Julian Savea, Hosea Gear, Ben Smith. Would love to see Andre Taylor as a bolter, but I doubt it. Nothing any other outside back has done to make me think there will be any bolters.

 

[Darwin]

Good summary Nick. Just to comment on one point

I actually think Matt Todd is extremely hard done by as Larksea mentioned. He's not really an x-factor player, but I think he's quite amazing. Makes more tackles than anyone and is probably the best 'fetcher' in New Zealand. Certainly don't think he'd be lost at test level (I even think he's not a bad ball carrier as a link option). Luke Braid has been impressive but I can't help but seel he could be a better blindside option than openside. He's a very strong ball carrier (looked good at 8 for that reason), has a high work rate and is physical, but I don't see him as 'great' in the fetcher role. Not saying he's not good, just not as good as the other opensides. He's looked best for the Blues at blindside and #8.

Up until the later half of the Super Rugby season I would have agreed that Luke Braid wasn't that great in the 'fetcher' role, but I thought his work at the breakdown was very impressive over the second half of the Blues season (even when he was playing at 8). According to these stats he actually made more pilfers than any other New Zealand player during the Super Rugby season. Foxsports.com.au stats paint the same picture, with him credited with 9 pilfers this season (compared to one in 2011!). I think Braid's style of play is almost identical to 'Modern Day McCaw's', and I think he would fit quite nicely into the AB's setup - the only thing that really counts against him is he isn't a lineout option. I've got a bit of time for Todd too, I'm just not sure he is what the AB's selectors are looking for in the 7 jersey at the moment. He is an effective ball runner in the open (as you say), but doesn't offer the ability to create go-forward ball in close (something McCaw, Cane, and Braid can do, and the AB's really need in the absense of Thorn and Kaino).

 

[ZeFrenchy]

Reminder: in the November tours the IRB will be trialling 8-player benches, with a full front row. That means 4 props in the match sheet, so they'll probably take 5, with two specialists on each side and one who can do both in case there is injury. I don't think Ben Franks will be getting many more caps if this rule catches on, and it will be time for Wyatt Crocket, methinks.

 

[Darwin]

Reminder: in the November tours the IRB will be trialling 8-player benches, with a full front row. That means 4 props in the match sheet, so they'll probably take 5, with two specialists on each side and one who can do both in case there is injury. I don't think Ben Franks will be getting many more caps if this rule catches on, and it will be time for Wyatt Crocket, methinks.

Thanks for pointing that out - I had forgotten about that.

While I think Crockett is a better LH prop than Ben Franks at Super Rugby level, I'm not yet convinced by Crockett at test level. He still gives away a lot of penalties at scrum time, and does struggle against shorter TH's. Ben Franks certainly isn't perfect, but he is generally pretty solid at LH (though he is not the best at TH), and I don't think there is much between Crockett and Franks at LH at test level.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

From what I've read, Ben Franks' moving to the Hurricanes has a lot to do with specializing at loosehead, to get more caps under the new rules. So maybe that'll work out. And I just saw that Crockett is 29, so maybe Ben is the way to go.

On a side note, if Owen Franks plays all 6 of the remaining tests of 2012 (SA, Aus, Sco, Ita, Wal, Eng), he will have 45 caps, becoming the most capped tight forward under 25 ever, surpassing Adam Jones, and will match David Pocock at third place among the forwards, only topped by Sergio Parisse and George Smith. Impressive numbers for a prop of his age, especially in a country as NZ with such depth in every position.

 

[nickdnz]

From what I've read, Ben Franks' moving to the Hurricanes has a lot to do with specializing at loosehead, to get more caps under the new rules. So maybe that'll work out. And I just saw that Crockett is 29, so maybe Ben is the way to go.

On a side note, if Owen Franks plays all 6 of the remaining tests of 2012 (SA, Aus, Sco, Ita, Wal, Eng), he will have 45 caps, becoming the most capped tight forward under 25 ever, surpassing Adam Jones, and will match David Pocock at third place among the forwards, only topped by Sergio Parisse and George Smith. Impressive numbers for a prop of his age, especially in a country as NZ with such depth in every position.

Don't know if Crockett being 29 will influence him over Ben Franks whose 28. Very interesting fact there ZeFrenchy, it certainly is impressive and he's surely got a long career still to go.

 

[Icemn]

Crockett for me is not a good scrummager...

 

[nickdnz]

Crockett for me is not a good scrummager...

Really, I think he's probably the best scrummager in New Zealand (even against shorter props). I think he gets a very hard time because of some guess work by referees, but I think he's the most dominant LH prop in terms of scrummaging - certainly at SR level. The only thing which I think he is guilty of is occasionaly boring in, but if the TH's outside sholder goes up or down (ie not keeping streight) then the LH prop has no real responsibilty to streighten up for him, especially when he has forward momentum. Will be good to see him always start for the Crusaders.

One thing you'll notice is when he scrummages the opposition prop will often be forced to stand up on their own feed. Some people think that's a poor thing (and if you've got a very dominant scrum it's frustrating because it limits the push can can make things messy), however if you're a loosehead, if you can get the TH to stand up, while going forward, it's extremely disruptive and effective which is why Crusaders are so effective at scrum time. The role of the TH for me is to provide a strong and stable base, the LH is to disrupt opposition scrums. I don't even believe Woodcock is as good at this.

 

[Icemn]

Really, I think he's probably the best scrummager in New Zealand (even against shorter props). I think he gets a very hard time because of some guess work by referees, but I think he's the most dominant LH prop in terms of scrummaging - certainly at SR level. The only thing which I think he is guilty of is occasionaly boring in, but if the TH's outside sholder goes up or down (ie not keeping streight) then the LH prop has no real responsibilty to streighten up for him, especially when he has forward momentum. Will be good to see him always start for the Crusaders.

One thing you'll notice is when he scrummages the opposition prop will often be forced to stand up on their own feed. Some people think that's a poor thing (and if you've got a very dominant scrum it's frustrating because it limits the push can can make things messy), however if you're a loosehead, if you can get the TH to stand up, while going forward, it's extremely disruptive and effective which is why Crusaders are so effective at scrum time. The role of the TH for me is to provide a strong and stable base, the LH is to disrupt opposition scrums. I don't even believe Woodcock is as good at this.

Each game I watch he seems to get penalized for losing bind or some or other reason realted to illegal scrummaging... i know he had a good work rate around the field but i feel his scrummaging a bit suspiscious :? i guess i was wrong :?

 

[nickdnz]

Each game I watch he seems to get penalized for losing bind or some or other reason realted to illegal scrummaging... i know he had a good work rate around the field but i feel his scrummaging a bit suspiscious :? i guess i was wrong :?

There would certainly be some referees that would agree with you, however in my mind I feel he's often quite hard done by.

 

[Icemn]

There would certainly be some referees that would agree with you, however in my mind I feel he's often quite hard done by.

could be ya :?

on the other hand, I hope Dan Coles gets in...

 

[nickdnz]

Now that the OZ test is over and done with, any new thoughts? Hansen has said it will be largely predictable so I'd imagine there will not be too many new players. Any thoughts on a new cap? I'm thinking Kerr-Barlow is the only one with a shot while Dane Coles would be an outside option.

 

[ZeFrenchy]

It would be awesome if they gave Sean Maitland a cap now, just to annoy the scotts.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

It would be awesome if they gave Sean Maitland a cap now, just to annoy the scotts.

Haha, I just came in here to say that!

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