A Political Thread

[TRF_Olyy]

I really doubt that Trump has much of a chance in the next election.

People said that the first time round too - I've given up on trying to predict what will happen (after the polls leading up to Brexit/2016/2017/2019 were all over the place).

It's far easier to get the right to rally around "their team" than it is to unite the centre/left behind someone like Biden - which will lead to an average turnout in total numbers and the united right to steamroll to apathetic left.

 

[ncurd]

People said that the first time round too.

Yup I'm fairly certain they'll be post on this thread from me 4 years ago saying along the lines "No way in hell is Trump going to win and he's going to be lose by a landslide". I'm still in disbelief that didn't happen...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

I really doubt that Trump has much of a chance in the next election. America is now facing a triple jeopardy of a public health disaster, civil unrest and a collapsing economy, none of which reflect well on him. There are also questions about his health now - neurological problems with the way he walks down stairs and the way he always drinks from a glass with two hands.

As Olyy says above that's what they said in 2016; Trump was way behind Hilary at this point. The peculiarities of the electoral college voting system mean it's effectively FPTP in each state. This election, like all the ones before, will be decided in those swing states. You cannot foresee how those will go because they are so unpredictable and relies on enough Democrat voters turning out whether by ballot or postal voting, which Trump's administration is trying to stop and swing-state voters either not turning out to vote for Trump or changing to Biden. You would think that there are special circumstances this year to make a Trump defeat certain, but his support base is still relatively solid despite his catastrophic handling of Covid. If we say 40% of the voters will vote Trump and 40% democrat, it's those middle 20% of voters, whom we don't know how they will vote. And it's where those 20% are voting that matters. Even they may not know until election day. Polls right now, just not really reliable and the only one that matters is the one in November.

Those neurological problems you refer to have been apparent for some time, but who knows if they will have any effect on this November's election. You only have to look at his opponent at the grand old age of 77, who has his own gaffe-prone problems. But I would still prefer Biden as POTUS than Trump.

 

[The Seeker]

His niece is releasing her memoirs as well and not painting her uncle in a good light. Neither will have any effect on Trump supporters, but hopefully this will affect swing state voters to not vote for him.

That's true, Trumpanzee's are basically a cult. They're completely deluded with no grip on reality. Sadly, my neighbor is one of them.

 

[The Seeker]

Bolton refusing to testify in Trumps impeachment, but then being more than happy to cash in on all of the evidence he should have submitted in the form of a book.

Absolute scumbag

I agree that Bolton's a scumbag. But hopefully this book will hurt Trump's re-election campaign. It won't sway the Trumpanzee's, they're beyond help. But maybe it will open the eyes of some of the undecided voters. I don't know how anyone could be undecided at this point, but I hear there's still some out there.

 

[Vieux Talonneur]

Unelectable but only in the sense that the recent election was fought on Brexit and Labour didn't stand a chance when they wanted to bridge the gap between Leave and Remain.

Any other election and I would have expected a different result, sure look at 2017 and their increase.

The clangers the current cabinet have been having over the past few months is unbelievable

No, unelectable in the sense that he was a dangerous fool not up to the job. I could not countenance voting Labour under his leadership and for precisely the same reasons I cannot consider voting Tory under Johnson.

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Oh how I yearn for the years of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg with Salmond, Davidson and Dugdale in the north!

 

[Johnny Storm]

Unelectable but only in the sense that the recent election was fought on Brexit and Labour didn't stand a chance when they wanted to bridge the gap between Leave and Remain.

Any other election and I would have expected a different result, sure look at 2017 and their increase.

The clangers the current cabinet have been having over the past few months is unbelievable

Corbyn would have done much better in 2019 had he listened to Keir Starmer and campaigned for a second referendum.

 

[ncurd]

Corbyn would have done much better in 2019 had he listened to Keir Starmer and campaigned for a second referendum.

I'm unconvinced Labout were a dead horse by the 2019 election on Brexit. Nobody on either side of the debate trusted Labour anymore on the issue and those who did vote Labour didn't do it for Brexit. They they shot most of it in 2017 but if they had a clear position instead of trying to play both sides and talking in wierd circles. But it needed to be done long before 2019 GE probably early 2018.

 

[Gavin]

Corbyn would have done much better in 2019 had he listened to Keir Starmer and campaigned for a second referendum.

You do realise all the people who switched their votes from Labour to Conservative did it on Brexit, so Corbyn campaigning on a second referendum would not have got those voters back who claimed it was democracy to follow the first referendum.

Liberal Democrats were destroyed because of their incredibly pro-EU stance

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

Corbyn would have done much better in 2019 had he listened to Keir Starmer and campaigned for a second referendum.

I disagree, labour had such small divides in their constituencies (they were closer than for other parties) over Brexit that settling on either side would have alienated loads of voters anyway. Literally a lose lose lose situation.

Even without that, their economic plan was just out of step with where society was and was never going to get any wide spread support really

 

[ncurd]

Liberal Democrats were destroyed because of their incredibly pro-EU stance

I could of sworn I wrote this the other day they increased their vote share by 4.2%! 3.5 times as many as any other party in the election. They weren't destroyed by their stance by any measure. FPTP meant is translated to 1 less seat and thats what 'destroyed' them. Lets not pretend it was a great election for them but lets deal with actual facts.

 

[Johnny Storm]

You do realise all the people who switched their votes from Labour to Conservative did it on Brexit, so Corbyn campaigning on a second referendum would not have got those voters back who claimed it was democracy to follow the first referendum.

Liberal Democrats were destroyed because of their incredibly pro-EU stance

Yes, it would water down the referendum result which is undemocratic, but I believe there was a lot of support for a second referendum in Britain. Lots of people voted leave as a sort of protest vote, not expecting to win. I know of two people who voted leave who then went and applied for Irish passports afterwards. Corbyn didn't help himself by sitting on the fence over the issue.

Brexit aside, Labour had a complex and vague manifesto which looked weak against Johnson's decisive Brexit stance. They were lost.

 

[Gavin]

Brexit aside, Labour had a complex and vague manifesto which looked weak against Johnson's decisive Brexit stance. They were lost.

The Labour manifesto was pretty conclusive and was coated for too. I don't even know if the Conservatives published their manifesto.

But you are right the election was lost on Brexit.

Boris Johnson - we must leave the EU and uphold the referendum

Jeremy Corbyn - we will agree a new Brexit deal and it will be up to the people to decide, leave, remain or deal

Jo Swinson - we'll ignore the referendum result and cancel Brexit

I could of sworn I wrote this the other day they increased their vote share by 4.2%! 3.5 times as many as any other party in the election. They weren't destroyed by their stance by any measure. FPTP meant is translated to 1 less seat and thats what 'destroyed' them. Lets not pretend it was a great election for them but lets deal with actual facts.

That really surprised me. I guess my view on them being destroyed was mainly down to the media hype around Swinson losing her seat and Chuka Umunna

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I don't even know if the Conservatives published their manifesto.

They didn't need one: they've just been pinching bits from the "impossible"/"commie" Labour one instead

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

https://www.facebook.com/10513336322/posts/10159235858206323/

Why this news is "breaking" from the guardian is a tad bemusing haha.

I know it's a new report but still funny

(Really good article tho, worth a read)

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

Facebook had now taken down ads by the trump campaign and pence for using an upside down red triangle, the sign used by the Nazis for political dissidents.

This **** can't be a coincidence any more.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lture-led-to-labour-defeat-major-report-finds

Hardly surprising.

 

[Reiser99]

https://www.facebook.com/10513336322/posts/10159235858206323/

Why this news is "breaking" from the guardian is a tad bemusing haha.

I know it's a new report but still funny

(Really good article tho, worth a read)

And yet even now some are still trying to say it wasn't Corbyn as though he was still leader and still needs his image protected. The toxicity and infighting still hasn't finished completely and it will be interesting to see how Starmer handles it.

 

[Johnny Storm]

Facebook had now taken down ads by the trump campaign and pence for using an upside down red triangle, the sign used by the Nazis for political dissidents.

This **** can't be a coincidence any more.

Facebook seem to have 'grown a pair' now after Twitter started removing some of Trump's tweets last week.

This could be really bad for the Trump campaign which spends a lot of money on Facebook advertising.