A Political Thread pt. 2

[General Melchett]

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory | YouGov

Tory seat total would also be a record low

yougov.co.uk

That's one hell of a beatdown for the Tories. Would be good if they get pushed down to double digits.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Latest predictions have Fabricant losing now - still skeptical, as I've read the predictions are more based on countrywide trends rather than local, but going to be really interesting.
It even being close would he a huge result for labour, considering how easily he's won the last however many elections, but there's been quite a change to the area since 2019 with the amount of houses they've built, plus there's a lot of anger about HS2

 

[Which Tyler]

Do I vote tactically regardless in the faint hope that Labour pull of a miracle or shall I vote based on my beliefs?

My area is pretty similar, has been Tory since becoming a constituency, and typically around 60% of the vote.
Thankfully, the polls have moved towards a favoured alternative candidate (LD) rather than LD and Lab being neck and neck as usual.

For me, the first priority is to kick the Tories out, and to kick them as hard s possible.
We can argue about flavours of centrism or leftism once that's done.

For this election, I'd say tactical. Maybe, just maybe, the Tories will be left with nowhere feeling safe.

Ultimately though, it's your vote and your decision.

 

[ncurd]

Latest predictions have Fabricant losing now - still skeptical, as I've read the predictions are more based on countrywide trends rather than local, but going to be really interesting.
It even being close would he a huge result for labour, considering how easily he's won the last however many elections, but there's been quite a change to the area since 2019 with the amount of houses they've built, plus there's a lot of anger about HS2

MRP pools try to work national trends with profiling individual constituencies with who lives there. So they can see how those trends reflect at a micro.level.

They're hightly experimental but meant to get away from universal swing. They have huge margins of errors currently though.

 

[ncurd]

My area is pretty similar, has been Tory since becoming a constituency, and typically around 60% of the vote.
Thankfully, the polls have moved towards a favoured alternative candidate (LD) rather than LD and Lab being neck and neck as usual.

For me, the first priority is to kick the Tories out, and to kick them as hard s possible.
We can argue about flavours of centrism or leftism once that's done.

For this election, I'd say tactical. Maybe, just maybe, the Tories will be left with nowhere feeling safe.

Ultimately though, it's your vote and your decision.

That's MRP poll has Tewkesbury going Lib Dem by 6%!

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer

Labour leader also says he cannot foresee circumstances where UK would re-enter single market or customs union

www.theguardian.com

 

[ncurd]

Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer

Labour leader also says he cannot foresee circumstances where UK would re-enter single market or customs union

www.theguardian.com

Dudes 61...so I don't think it's the far fetched. Its a decade away before we even can discuss the idea.

 

[Which Tyler]

That's MRP poll has Tewkesbury going Lib Dem by 6%!

Depends which one. IIRC two of the polls (YouGov and Electoral Calculus) have predicted a win for LD, but I hadn't spotted anything more than 1-2% in it - way less than the margin for error.

 

[ncurd]

Depends which one. IIRC two of the polls (YouGov and Electoral Calculus) have predicted a win for LD, but I hadn't spotted anything more than 1-2% in it - way less than the margin for error.

Yougov data from earlier says 6%

E14001542TewkesburySouth West31%12%37%0%0%4%16%0%ConLib DemsConservativesLean Lib DemsCounty6%Lib Dem gain from Conservatives

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Dudes 61...so I don't think it's the far fetched. Its a decade away before we even can discuss the idea.

Yeh just confirming what we all know. Comes back to the whole EU would not even consider discussing either unless both parties committed/60% want to rejoin. We are far away from that.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

Confirming once again all he cares about are the ratings.

 

[Which Tyler]

Expected time frames tonight.
Highlights:

What time will we know who won? Hour-by-hour guide to election night

Want to catch a few results before bed, or see it through to the moment of reckoning? We’ve got you covered

www.theguardian.com

All constituencies estimated declarations:

Estimated declaration times of General Election results: Alphabetical list

All results are being counted overnight, with the final results due at around 6.30am on July 5.

www.standard.co.uk

Whether I stay up all night will depend on:
A] What tomorrow's work diary looks like when I leave this evening.
B] My actual capacity to stay awake (my insomnia's been playing up recently, and I'm overdue a crash).

 

[General Melchett]

The exit poll at 10pm and subsequent analysis will be enough to make me sleep easy tonight. If it was going to be tight then I may have stayed up later.

Labour v SNP in Scotland will be interesting. I rate Anas Sanwar and think he'd make a good FM if Labour manage to sneak it.

 

[Which Tyler]

The exit poll at 10pm and subsequent analysis will be enough to make me sleep easy tonight. If it was going to be tight then I may have stayed up later.

Labour v SNP in Scotland will be interesting. I rate Anas Sanwar and think he'd make a good FM if Labour manage to sneak it.

I want to see JRM officially be kicked out, and a few others as well, like Alex Chalk and obviously, Laurence Robertson


"Poll of polls"
https://inews.co.uk/news/election-2024-polls-and-predictions-for-every-constituency-mapped-3137011
It's the Independent, so you can usually bypass the paywall by hitting refresh, and stop

ETA: Okay, that tactic only works for a minute or so; here's the archive (obviously, no interactive elements):
https://archive.ph/skWeL

 

[ncurd]

Two cans of Monster in the Fridge

Looks like try to get some sleep between midnight and 3am before chugging the first of those.

Its not about the overall result (other than Lib Dems second place) but watching the Portillo moments (hopefully soon to be a Sunak moment)

 

[ncurd]

Polling station was busy this morning but I went just as the local primary school was having drop off on way to work. First time I've seen a Lib Dem doing canvassing analysis in the constituency.

 

[ncurd]

The real question is which channel to watch Kuenssberg means the BBC is out and I'm not watching Osbourne on ITV either.

Sky News probably best bet but Channel 4 has Emily Maitlis, Alistair Campbell, Rory Stewart along with Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Cathy Newman but Nadine Dorries....

 

[General Melchett]

The real question is which channel to watch Kuenssberg means the BBC is out and I'm not watching Osbourne on ITV either.

Sky News probably best bet but Channel 4 has Emily Maitlis, Alistair Campbell, Rory Stewart along with Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Cathy Newman but Nadine Dorries....

COVID law breaking hypocrite and gobby ego Kay Burley is anchoring the evening segment on Sky news unfortunately otherwise I have watched it there as I like Rigby & Coates. CH4 it is and I will digest the Dorries content for comedy value.

 

[Which Tyler]

Channel 4 has Emily Maitlis, Rory Stewart

Good call

 

[Reiser99]

Who else is looking forward to Sunak's resignation speech tomorrow?