• Help Support The Rugby Forum :

A Political Thread pt. 2

Latest predictions have Fabricant losing now - still skeptical, as I've read the predictions are more based on countrywide trends rather than local, but going to be really interesting.
It even being close would he a huge result for labour, considering how easily he's won the last however many elections, but there's been quite a change to the area since 2019 with the amount of houses they've built, plus there's a lot of anger about HS2
 
Reiser99 said:
Do I vote tactically regardless in the faint hope that Labour pull of a miracle or shall I vote based on my beliefs?
Click to expand...
My area is pretty similar, has been Tory since becoming a constituency, and typically around 60% of the vote.
Thankfully, the polls have moved towards a favoured alternative candidate (LD) rather than LD and Lab being neck and neck as usual.

For me, the first priority is to kick the Tories out, and to kick them as hard s possible.
We can argue about flavours of centrism or leftism once that's done.

For this election, I'd say tactical. Maybe, just maybe, the Tories will be left with nowhere feeling safe.

Ultimately though, it's your vote and your decision.
 
TRF_Olyy said:
Latest predictions have Fabricant losing now - still skeptical, as I've read the predictions are more based on countrywide trends rather than local, but going to be really interesting.
It even being close would he a huge result for labour, considering how easily he's won the last however many elections, but there's been quite a change to the area since 2019 with the amount of houses they've built, plus there's a lot of anger about HS2
Click to expand...
MRP pools try to work national trends with profiling individual constituencies with who lives there. So they can see how those trends reflect at a micro.level.

They're hightly experimental but meant to get away from universal swing. They have huge margins of errors currently though.
 
Which Tyler said:
My area is pretty similar, has been Tory since becoming a constituency, and typically around 60% of the vote.
Thankfully, the polls have moved towards a favoured alternative candidate (LD) rather than LD and Lab being neck and neck as usual.

For me, the first priority is to kick the Tories out, and to kick them as hard s possible.
We can argue about flavours of centrism or leftism once that's done.

For this election, I'd say tactical. Maybe, just maybe, the Tories will be left with nowhere feeling safe.

Ultimately though, it's your vote and your decision.
Click to expand...
That's MRP poll has Tewkesbury going Lib Dem by 6%!
 
ncurd said:
That's MRP poll has Tewkesbury going Lib Dem by 6%!
Click to expand...
Depends which one. IIRC two of the polls (YouGov and Electoral Calculus) have predicted a win for LD, but I hadn't spotted anything more than 1-2% in it - way less than the margin for error.
 
Which Tyler said:
Depends which one. IIRC two of the polls (YouGov and Electoral Calculus) have predicted a win for LD, but I hadn't spotted anything more than 1-2% in it - way less than the margin for error.
Click to expand...
Yougov data from earlier says 6%

E14001542TewkesburySouth West31%12%37%0%0%4%16%0%ConLib DemsConservativesLean Lib DemsCounty6%Lib Dem gain from Conservatives
 
ncurd said:
Dudes 61...so I don't think it's the far fetched. Its a decade away before we even can discuss the idea.
Click to expand...
Yeh just confirming what we all know. Comes back to the whole EU would not even consider discussing either unless both parties committed/60% want to rejoin. We are far away from that.
 
Expected time frames tonight.
Highlights:
www.theguardian.com

What time will we know who won? Hour-by-hour guide to election night

Want to catch a few results before bed, or see it through to the moment of reckoning? We’ve got you covered
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

All constituencies estimated declarations:
www.standard.co.uk

Estimated declaration times of General Election results: Alphabetical list

All results are being counted overnight, with the final results due at around 6.30am on July 5.
www.standard.co.uk www.standard.co.uk



Whether I stay up all night will depend on:
A] What tomorrow's work diary looks like when I leave this evening.
B] My actual capacity to stay awake (my insomnia's been playing up recently, and I'm overdue a crash).
 
The exit poll at 10pm and subsequent analysis will be enough to make me sleep easy tonight. If it was going to be tight then I may have stayed up later.

Labour v SNP in Scotland will be interesting. I rate Anas Sanwar and think he'd make a good FM if Labour manage to sneak it.
 
General Melchett said:
The exit poll at 10pm and subsequent analysis will be enough to make me sleep easy tonight. If it was going to be tight then I may have stayed up later.

Labour v SNP in Scotland will be interesting. I rate Anas Sanwar and think he'd make a good FM if Labour manage to sneak it.
Click to expand...
I want to see JRM officially be kicked out, and a few others as well, like Alex Chalk and obviously, Laurence Robertson


"Poll of polls"
https://inews.co.uk/news/election-2024-polls-and-predictions-for-every-constituency-mapped-3137011
It's the Independent, so you can usually bypass the paywall by hitting refresh, and stop

ETA: Okay, that tactic only works for a minute or so; here's the archive (obviously, no interactive elements):
https://archive.ph/skWeL
 
Last edited:
Two cans of Monster in the Fridge

Looks like try to get some sleep between midnight and 3am before chugging the first of those.

Its not about the overall result (other than Lib Dems second place) but watching the Portillo moments (hopefully soon to be a Sunak moment)
 
Polling station was busy this morning but I went just as the local primary school was having drop off on way to work. First time I've seen a Lib Dem doing canvassing analysis in the constituency.
 
The real question is which channel to watch Kuenssberg means the BBC is out and I'm not watching Osbourne on ITV either.

Sky News probably best bet but Channel 4 has Emily Maitlis, Alistair Campbell, Rory Stewart along with Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Cathy Newman but Nadine Dorries....
 
ncurd said:
The real question is which channel to watch Kuenssberg means the BBC is out and I'm not watching Osbourne on ITV either.

Sky News probably best bet but Channel 4 has Emily Maitlis, Alistair Campbell, Rory Stewart along with Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Cathy Newman but Nadine Dorries....
Click to expand...

COVID law breaking hypocrite and gobby ego Kay Burley is anchoring the evening segment on Sky news unfortunately otherwise I have watched it there as I like Rigby & Coates. CH4 it is and I will digest the Dorries content for comedy value.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

Bada-Bing!
Antisocial, societal issues thread
7 8 9
Replies
162
Views
7K
pagliaccio_euforico
pagliaccio_euforico
Bada-Bing!
The Biking thread
3 4 5
Replies
81
Views
4K
Bada-Bing!
Bada-Bing!
Bada-Bing!
The Ukraine War thread
26 27 28
Replies
553
Views
22K
McTallshort
McTallshort
T
Is anyone using a club management system for their local club?
Replies
0
Views
844
Try-Hard Tackler
T
M
Had to stare someone down at a red light
Replies
6
Views
1K
The Seeker
The Seeker

Latest posts

Top