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[2022 Six Nations] England vs Ireland (12/03/22)

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Heading over for this so when you see Marcus Smith crying just know that it was only 95% because of the realisation that he'll never be as good as Johnny Sexton and 5% is the borderline stuff I'll be shouting from the stands... I will ruin family days out.

As an aside, any pub recommendations around Richmond/Twickenham for a decent pre-game atmosphere would be welcomed. And I know the go to response will be "there is no atmosphere" but give me the best of a bad lot in that case!
The Turks head or Cabbage Patch.

Although the bars inside the ground aren't too bad. They have a few ex / current professionals wandering around and talking to the fans
 
Think I'd tempted to start Itoje, Launch as locks and go Underhill, Dombrandt, Curry back row. If all fit and pass HIA
For me that ticks a lot of boxes and improves breakdown, scrum, contact area and maul. Possibly the line out might be a bit weaker but England hardly used Lawes as a line out option Vs Wales
 
Lynagh has tested positive so is out of the squad, not that he'd have made the 23
 
I won't be watching the game this weekend as I'm away, and looking at the squad I hold little hope.

Isiekwe being dropped whilst Ewels stays in.

Nowell the only winger, who also didn't have the best game against Wales. Yet OHC and Radwan don't get a look in. I suspect we'll see another game of no structure, game plan and relying on moments of luck.

Ireland by 10 or more
 
Big Joe Launchbury and Barbeary retained... likely hood they will both play?
 
Porter is a very big loss in my opinion, Kilcoyne with Healy bouncing is still an international level duo but not a point of difference like Porter.

Sheehan and Herring isn't as big a loss but we'd really want to be leading when Sheehan comes off, Herring is solid but again, not going to be impactful.off the bench.

Furlong is so far ahead of any other front row on the pitch that I'd say he levels the front row battle that England would have edged otherwise.

Itoje and Beirne are the pick of the second rows, if England go with Ewels and we have Henderson on the bench I'd give us a small edge here but overall, and with home advantage, you'd expect parity in the front five.

Without Curry available I don't think I'd take an England backrow ahead of ours, if our loose forwards are allowed to be a point of difference they will be.

JGP is probably a bit steadier than Randall at the moment but definitely a position where both sides will want their young guys at club level to make an impression and get starts soon.

For a one off test match I'm taking Johnny over Smith every day of the week, playing two or three weeks in a row and I'd have to reconsider. If this game is decided on which ten has the most impact, we'll win, Johnny can get more out of his teams than Smith can at this point of his career. I think I'm right in saying this is Smith's first game against any Irish team, running out halves have had their struggles against us, slow ball and a tightly packed defensive line can effectively counter them.

I don't think much separates Slade and Ringrose, Ringer has form on his side but for a 13 at this level that's fairly fickle. If Manu comes back firing England have the edge here, if he's rusty it's still fairly equal because I doubt we'll pick Henshaw and if we do he'd need a sharp upturn in performance. If Manu doesn't play we should have the edge.

Back three again I'd take our guys. Steward v Keenan is probably the closest head to head here, two guys who are very competent and quietly add a lot to their sides attacking play.

Reading that back you'd think Ireland will win, and my prediction is that we'll edge it, but away from home and in a fixture where ambushes aren't uncommon I'm not comfortable at all. I also think that under Jones England have had some of their best games against us, 2019 was the pick of the bunch but 2016 and 2020 were total composed domination as well, and there were hammerings in the WC warmups and ANC too.

I'm yet to see England beat us in person, hopefully it's 5/5 come Saturday evening.
This is a very fair analysis. Hard to disagree with anything you've written there, but you might have been slightly harsh on Herring.

I'd certainly take him over Blamire who is likely to occupy our 16 shirt. He's got plenty of promise but his lineout throwing leaves a fair bit to be desired and that worries me with O'Mahoney likely to be on the pitch by that point.

Ireland are comfortably favourites IMO. However, I do feel that England will randomly click in to gear and upset someone in this tournament, whether that's Ireland or France remains to be seen. Probably wishful thinking on my part as I feel pretty dispirited about England right now.
 
Looking at it, 3 people to drop out

Barbeary may be there either if one or both of Dombrandt/Curry dont make it to game time.. I think it may need both to be out, but who knows, could be a 6-2 split
 
Would be good to see launch back. Think. 6-2 split is likely. Most of the England strength is in the forwards at the moment. Hard to be sure of the team EJ will go for. I suspect:

Genge
George
Sinclare
Itoje
Launch
Curry (if fit)
Lawes (he's gonna stick with his captain)
Dombrant (if fit)
Randall
Smith
Marchant
Slade
Malins
Nowell
Steward

Arguably having Lawes, Launch and Itoje start allows for more jumper options in the line out. Still feel we are missing some real attacking threats in the backs. No blistering pace or big units to batter holes and draw defenders. Sure Smith can conjure a few line breaks, as can Randall and Slade, but with no lethal finisher to come along and follow up we always seem left wanting. At least Steward is solid under the high ball, as Malins and Nowell seem to be, but we look creaky in defence generally. I think of England are going to win this the forwards are going to need to put in a massive effort. Control abs dominate the set piece and just smash it up dynamically in attack (much like Ireland do), create some space for Smith to work and maybe we have a chance.
 
Would be good to see launch back. Think. 6-2 split is likely. Most of the England strength is in the forwards at the moment. Hard to be sure of the team EJ will go for. I suspect:

Genge
George
Sinclare
Itoje
Launch
Curry (if fit)
Lawes (he's gonna stick with his captain)
Dombrant (if fit)
Randall
Smith
Marchant
Slade
Malins
Nowell
Steward
Take it you mixed curry and Lawes and Malins and Marchant. But yes i agree.

3 Sinkler*

6 Curry
7 Lawes

11 Malins
13 Marchant
 

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