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There's a very high likelyhood of there being no wild cards from Aus and SA1 conference. This means that there is a chance of 2 wildcards in NZ and 2 in SA2. I grant that 3 NZ and 1 SA2 is probably the most likely possibility, but I wouldn't rule out the 2-2 split.
I don't know what makes you think that there is a high likelihood of SA1 conference not having the African wildcard. All of SA2 has to play NZ teams, while SA1 plays Australian sides. Add to that, every side on SA2 is looking exceptionall poor apart from the Stormers, with the second team in SA2 having half the points of the Sharks/Jaguares. SA1 is basically guaranteed that wildcard.
Edit: I confused the SA conferences, apologies. You are correct, SA 1 is definitely not going to get a wildcard.
Also, you seem to be confused about the wildcards. One has to be from the African groups and 3 have to be from the Australasian table, SA2 can't get two wildcards.
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