another interesting AB performance that creates more questions than answers...
Savea's name on the score sheet seems grand but he still looks slow and stuttering. My concerns around his game haven't changed.
I think the whole of NZ would have jumped and screamed at the sight of Naholo running in a 40+m effort and beating multiple defenders, then the shot of the coaching box and the look of relief and satisfaction on hansens face.. That is exactly what this side needs, but the feeling didn't last long. Most of the game Naholo looked out of position and out of beat. then he Hobbled around a bit before being subbed off.
Carter, he's still holding back but even I'm worried now. tentative is a word to describe his game, hes just linking rather than asserting himself on the game. Goal kicking is another worry, yes almost all his shots were from the sideline and most were close misses but after a couple of misses he should have got his eye in and started hitting them after making minor adjustments. IMO I honestly believe he still has the pace and vision. There have just been a few times when hes looked to run the ball and to me he genuinely looked fast and like he could open the game up if he wanted too but he's holding back. The worse case scenario is that he holds back till the quarters and gets injured soon after... Best case scenario is he plays his natural game and survives those three knockout games. One thing is for sure, he can't keep being tentative. At some point he is going to have to shift and put his foot down and if he gets injured so be it. Barrett will come in and we will go from there.
Alternatives? the few times we have had with Barrett at 10 the whole back line looked more dangerous and more likely to fire. His goal kicking is not much better right now. I think we have to put goal kicking aside and just hope they improve with these balls and also outside of a closed stadium which does seem to cause issues as well.
Slades position in the squad does seem more as a utility than a 10. And its getting a bit late in the comp to all of a sudden give him the #10 jersey.
6 is still an issue for me, Kaino hasn't been doing enough IMO and their are genuine question marks over his starting spot. I dont see vito as an option starting at 6, IMO he starts strong and fades too quickly and when under pressure he folds. His best role is in that lock cover position on the bench providing impact in the last 20 and in particular putting huge pressure on opposition line outs in that time. I hope messam does come back against Tonga and have a big game, he does have it in him and I think he can lift when needed. he is also a player that lifts and works harder when his team is under pressure. But what I think should be seriously considered is starting Sam Cane, 6 or 7 on his back I dont care. He and McCaw have been our best lose forwards Cane is knocking guys over on defense with good physicality hes constantly in the game, he carries the ball hard. Honestly on form right now starting cane at 6 ahead of Kaino will only improve the AB's overall, we wont lose anything other than the impact Cane has been providing off the bench. Kaino/Messam can hopefully provide that.
midfield is the other concern, as if we dont have enough to worry about. The form selections are SBW & Fekitoa. While Nonu & Smith are arguably the best midfield combination in the history of the game. Nonu has been misfiring other than eden park and Conrad smith is pretty much having his worst test season ever in terms of personal form. We are probably in a position where we just need to keep our faith in nonu & Smith and hope for the best.
Its pretty clear our scrum is not going to win us this WC, but we need to sure it up. On the bright side our forwards should be more mobile, stronger in the last 20min and provide more impact when the game opens up. Charlie & Crockett look like they are carrying the ball well. Owen Franks put in some big hits. For the first time ever I'm not sure where Woodcock fits in right now. 2011 was a good example, when woodcock was on the field we never had to worry about our scrum. For basically his whole career the lose head side of the scrum has been something we never had to worry about, until now.... I think I'm crazy for saying it bit it feels like IMO we would be better off with Ben Franks starting at 1 and Crockett coming off the bench. I dont think Ben would be any worse than Woody right now in the scrum he maybe even a bit better. And he is more mobile around the field a genuine top level defender, his main weakness has been his willingness to give away a silly yellow card once or twice a year... But I think hes less likely to do that starting and playing the first 50-60 min than coming off the bench for the last 20-30min.
Aaron smith is another who maybe holding back a bit, we've seen very little of the creative play hes known for. Was also a worry seeing TKB on the field with huge amounts of tape and strapping on his leg, something has clearly happened there that's a heck of a lot more strapping than last time he played. and around the field he looked very, very slow.
Players who are playing well? McCaw is giving everything as he always has, hes definitely not holding anything back just because these are easy pool games. Sam Whitelock has been very similar. SBW has been consistent, the offload game is still good and his defense is superb. Ben Smith has been the pick of the backs IMO, made one mistake but other than that hes everywhere, hes creating chances and get gets the ball moving forward even when he has no right to do so in heavy traffic. I wish more of the AB's would be inspired by watching how ben smith works in contact when he has the ball. Crazy watching guys like Vito or Kaino getting hit and going straight to deck when little Ben Smith gets hit and consistently makes another 5-10m gain after contact. You can't overstate how important this gains are that get the forwards going forward and the opposition defense tracking back before the next phase starts.
We know the ABs are capable of both making a big improvement over a week when needed and also lifting their game when the opposition gets tougher. They are also good at winning big games when they dont really fire. But these performances wont be doing their confidence much good, they are eventually going to come up against sides with a heck of a lot more confidence. Or France who seem to have one big game saved for the AB's every 4 years where they throw the form book out the window.