[2014 TRC] South Africa v New Zealand in Johannesburg (04/10/2014)

[nickdnz]

How do peeps feel about Savea vs Hendricks? Hendricks is certainly a very capable attacker, but will his defense hold up?

 

[SomeOke]

The question is whether Savea's defense will hold up!

In all seriousness though has anyone been able to hold up to Savea one on one? The trick will be to deny him space so he doesn't get the opportunity to run (easier said than done), maybe with Jean and Jan coming up quickly to cut off the wings from play, that kind of rush defense does leave you open to chips over the top though.

Anyway I love this match up as everyone does but I'm not particularly confident. Our greatest asset since 2011 has been our loose trio of Vermulen, Flouw and Alberts and it's highly disrupted, we haven't made as much progress this year as I'd hoped.
I feel like NZ will have to have an off game with us playing out of our skins to get the win. Hopefully we see a lot of growth in SR next year before the WC.
Would love to be proven wrong!

 

[Chikwa]

If the AB's can get their basics right :
1) solid scrums
2) accurate line outs
3) each player taking responsibility in defence.(way too many missed tackles in Argentina )
4) not give away needless penalties
They'll always give themselves a chance at winning because no team is at their level when it comes to creating opportunities to score tries.

 

[The Jones Boy]

Be that as it may, this game is in the republic, it's up on the high veldt and the Boks are as tough as they come.
They play a high degree of % rugby and they do it well.
Looks like more of the first choice players from last week could be on their way back from the walking wounded.
I think the Boks will take this one.
No Cruden, only a very young Barrett to run the show, it's a massive ask for the young fella. Be nice to win it but...
Boks by three.

 

[Darwin]

Looks like Crockett is in doubt due to the facial cuts he received last weekend. I don't know whether I want to admit it but he would be a loss if he was ruled out in my opinion, as he has done a solid job for the AB's this season. If he is out the AB's selectors need to choose between Moody and Ben Franks. Franks obviously has the edge in experience, but the selectors have shown increased faith in Moody as the Rugby Championship has progressed. In the first match of the Rugby Championship it appeared clear that Franks was rated above Moody on the LH side. When Crockett was sent to the bin it was Franks, not Moody who was brought onto the field (Moody was given 10 minutes at the end). Moody has been given progressively more game-time each match - 10 minutes against Australia, 22 against Argentina and South Africa, and 27 against Argentina last weekend. It was notable that when Crockett went off to get stitches in the last match it was Moody rather than Franks that replaced him. Personally would go for Franks (though I still worry about his discipline), but I have been happy with Moody's development this year.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Here's the All Black team:

15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Reid, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Joe Moody

Substitutes: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty

Brodie Retallick out is something the Boks should use. Brodie has probably been the most effective forward for the AB's this tournament, and his physicality will be missed.

Mealamu starting... Hopefully that will help us in the lineouts...

 

[Bada-Bing!]

If this match live up to last year's match we're in for an absolute treat.

Do AB and Bok fans think the teams announced are stronger compared those who lined up in the 2013 match at Ellis park?

 

[TRF_heineken]

If this match live up to last year's match we're in for an absolute treat.

Do AB and Bok fans think the teams announced are stronger compared those who lined up in the 2013 match at Ellis park?

From a Springbok perspective I would say that the Bok-team is a bit stronger and the All Black team is a bit weaker.

But I doubt we will see the same type of game as last year as The Boks can't win the RC anymore as NZ are 6 points ahead. This game is purely for pride and it would be more of a test match to grind out the win.

EDIT: Joost Visited the All Blacks before this big test

 

[nzlizard]

Here's the All Black team:

15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Reid, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Joe Moody

Substitutes: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty

Brodie Retallick out is something the Boks should use. Brodie has probably been the most effective forward for the AB's this tournament, and his physicality will be missed.

Mealamu starting... Hopefully that will help us in the lineouts...

Yeah Retallick is a massive loss for us, starting Mealamu just makes no sense.

Good to see Fekitoa retain his place, thoroughly deserved it after last weeks performance.

From a Springbok perspective I would say that the Bok-team is a bit stronger and the All Black team is a bit weaker.

But I doubt we will see the same type of game as last year as The Boks can't win the RC anymore as NZ are 6 points ahead. This game is purely for pride and it would be more of a test match to grind out the win.

EDIT: Joost Visited the All Blacks before this big test

I picked a draw for the result.


Edit - awesome photo, nice to see.

 

[RyotoTheDragon]

Ben Smith not at full back?. Oh well, lets hope Dagg keeps building on his form from previous games. Other than that, team looks ok given that Brodie is injured. Good to see Mealamu starting after last weeks performance.

Quite confident that we will win haha but should be a great game against the old enemy. ABs by 50

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Here's the All Black team:

15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Reid, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Joe Moody

Substitutes: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty

Brodie Retallick out is something the Boks should use. Brodie has probably been the most effective forward for the AB's this tournament, and his physicality will be missed.

Mealamu starting... Hopefully that will help us in the lineouts...

Nice to finally see TKB on the team sheet!

 

[nickdnz]

Moody and Thrush are two of the bigger ifs for me. Thrush actually has a pretty brilliant work rate, but he's not incredibly physical. Moody is still a very quiet player for me, not sure if it's because he just gets about and does his job - or if he doesn't. I suspects he's just quiet because he does his core job well (the scrum has functioned reasonably well while he's been on), I certainly think Ben Franks would probably offer a bit more with ball in hand and a very physical defense (although not necessary always more accurate).

Fekitoa/Crotty is another intriguing selection. I'm very excited to see how they go.

 

[Darwin]

Here's the All Black team:

15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Reid, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Joe Moody

Substitutes: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty

Brodie Retallick out is something the Boks should use. Brodie has probably been the most effective forward for the AB's this tournament, and his physicality will be missed.

Mealamu starting... Hopefully that will help us in the lineouts...

Losing Retallick is a massive blow. He's been the best lock in the world this season IMO and we will really miss his physicality. Despite his performance last weekend I'm not a fan of Mealamu starting, however given the amount of travelling Coles has done in this last week or so (New Zealand - Argentina - New Zealand - South Africa) he may well be a bit jaded! It will certainly be a big test for Moody. It's amazing how little top level rugby he has played. He has a total of 2 starts and Super Rugby level, and only 13 starts at ITM Cup level. He hasn't looked out of place so far at test level, but starting a test is a different challenge to playing 20 minutes from the bench. Our lack of genuine lock cover worries me (not that we could do anything about it), and I definitely would have preferred Cane over Messam (as he has made an impact every time he has come on this season).

Fekitoa gets another chance, but personally I would have preferred Crotty's reliability (Fekitoa is a better impact option from the bench too).

If this match live up to last year's match we're in for an absolute treat.

Do AB and Bok fans think the teams announced are stronger compared those who lined up in the 2013 match at Ellis park?

It will be difficult for the match to live up to last years! In terms of the AB's team I would agree with Heineken that it is definitely weaker than last time. Last year we had Woodcock at LH (who is much better than our 3rd choice Moody), Hore at hooker (similar to Mealamu I suppose), Retallick at lock (who is >>>>>>>>>>> Thrush), Messam at 6 (who is worse than Kaino, but actually played his AB's test against the Boks last year IMO), Cruden at 10 (who is a better starter than Barrett), and Nonu at 12 (as opposed to Fekitoa who is only going to start his 2nd match of professional rugby in the 12 jersey).

Moody and Thrush are two of the bigger ifs for me. Thrush actually has a pretty brilliant work rate, but he's not incredibly physical. Moody is still a very quiet player for me, not sure if it's because he just gets about and does his job - or if he doesn't. I suspects he's just quiet because he does his core job well (the scrum has functioned reasonably well while he's been on), I certainly think Ben Franks would probably offer a bit more with ball in hand and a very physical defense (although not necessary always more accurate).

Fekitoa/Crotty is another intriguing selection. I'm very excited to see how they go.

Moody's tackle count has been very low so far in the Rugby Championship, but this isn't typical of him. He's got a pretty good work-rate in my opinion. I've been very impressed with the way he hits the breakdown this year - there is some real physicality there, but he is usually in control too (unlike a certain B Franks...). He's still a work in progress, but I've been impressed with the way he has taken to test rugby thus far (considering as I mentioned he's only had two starts at Super Rugby level...).

EDIT: Joost Visited the All Blacks before this big test

Fantastic photo. It certainly emphasizes the great relationship the Boks and the AB's have off the field.

 

[Kapa O Pango]

Seems like it's going to be another cracker of a match the old rivalry AB's vs Boks. The Boks will definitely dominant in the close quarter contact and the physically they bring with there forward pack.

 

[Darwin]

This is basically a 50:50 game for me. I'm picking the AB's by 5, but I'm sure that has a lot to do with my natural bias towards the men in black......

A lot of course depends on how the AB's match up to South Africa up front. I don't feel that South Africa have actually been that dominant up front this season (very solid though), but I feel Bismark will add a lot more physicality to their pack. There are plenty of questions from the AB's perspective. Can Mealamu back-up from last week? Is Thrush really up to test rugby? Who is Joe Moody?

Barrett gets another chance to start a test. I thought he played very well against Argentina in Napier (goal-kicking aside), but I he wasn't that impressive last weekend (goal-kicking aside again..). There are few bigger challenges in world rugby than starting against South Africa at Ellis Park, but I believe Barrett has the required temperament to be successful. I do worry a bit about Fekitoa at 12, but to be honest I feel as comfortable with him at 12 as I do with Nonu these days (but would feel slightly more confident with Crotty there). He needs to be careful not to force passes that aren't on, but I thought his decision making was pretty good last weekend. Fekitoa is going to have to watch his alignment on defense too, as running out of the line against South Africa could prove costly. Obviously the AB's will be looking to give Smith, Savea and Dagg as much room as possible - I'm picking Savea to score his first try against the Boks this weekend.

 

[hjklhjkl]

It would be awesome if AB's can win this one but i've got a feeling the Boks will snatch it.

Boks by 6

 

[Chikwa]

It would be awesome if AB's can win this one but i've got a feeling the Boks will snatch it.

Boks by 6

When the boks smell blood they are like a pack of hyena's. If the AB's are mentally fatigued or just don't pitch up mentally, it could be a lop sided score line in favour of the boks.I have not read any reported statements where any of their players or coaches think they can possibly lose. They have not even considered their away defeats as losses but rather as lost opportunities.Though it would be disappointing at some point the AB's have to lose. Why not in this dead rubber?!

 

[SomeOke]

When the boks smell blood they are like a pack of hyena's. If the AB's are mentally fatigued or just don't pitch up mentally, it could be a lop sided score line in favour of the boks.I have not read any reported statements where any of their players or coaches think they can possibly lose. They have not even considered their away defeats as losses but rather as lost opportunities.Though it would be disappointing at some point the AB's have to lose. Why not in this dead rubber?!

There are no dead rubbers in international rugby .

 

[Tony Manx]

Seen nothing to show me that Boks are anywhere near the AB standard so latter would have to be so far off the pace for a home win!!!

There is no dead rubber between these teams!!! Too much kudos and team pride at stake!!

 

[SomeOke]

Seen nothing to show me that Boks are anywhere near the AB standard so latter would have to be so far off the pace for a home win!!!

There is no dead rubber between these teams!!! Too much kudos and team pride at stake!!

The bottom line is that our forward back hasn't been the dominant force we need it to be, tactically I see evolution in how our back line is going about its business, which is good, but we still can't say it's more lethal than the AB back line.
Therefore without forward dominance in both scrummaging and loose play we just don't have the edge on the All Blacks on paper. So to an extent I agree with you. That said, I don't think the gap is as big as you're implying and if certain key players for the Bokke play at their best (Wille, Handre, Hougard) and the AB's aren't at their clinical best I can definitely see us winning. Darwin says 50:50 and I respect his opinion but I'd write that off as pessimism and say it's closer to 70:30 in favour of the AB's.