Exactly going on what they've shown so far in this comp they are seriously going to have pull something out of their ass to win this. Their deficiencies are pretty glaring this year. Honestly i think this years comp is the Brumbies/Waratahs or Sharks/Bulls to loose.
In saying that i think a NZ team can win it but I just cant see them getting home adv come the finals which this year will be really really important. The NZ conference is way to even to allow one team to get way ahead. I cant see the Chiefs beating the Saders or the Brumbies coming up. If they get one win out of those two they will have done well actually.
People seem to be forgetting that for a lot of last year the Chiefs were playing pretty poorly. In the middle of the season they lost to the Reds and Waratahs in quick succession (that game against the Tahs was one of the poorest I've seen from them) and then scraped by against the Sharks (after having a 24 point lead), Rebels (a bit of a misnomer, given how poor the ref was) and the Force before putting in a few good performances against the Hurricanes and the Crusaders. They only won four of their last ten matches by more than 7 points and flattered to deceive in most of those games. The important thing was that they kept picking up points and came right against the Crusaders in the semi final.
Currently the injury list includes Robinson, Tikoirotuma, Lowe, Ngatai, Fruean, Cruden, Elliot and Afeaki. That's a band of very good players, six of the eight played in the final last year. Imagine if you took Crotty, Carter, Dagg and Taylor out of the Crusaders backline, how well would they fare then?
I'm not suggesting this Chiefs team will win the competition, but providing they can keep accruing points and get a few players back from injury I'd be surprised not to see them come finals time. They have a habit of performing in crunch matches, hopefully they'll maintain that ability this season.
If they can win one of their two upcoming fixtures against the Crusaders and the Brumbies it will stand them in very good stead for the rest of the season. The Chiefs should be able to bank two wins out of the matches against the Lions and the Blues (both in Hamilton) and then have a bye, after which they should have most of their injured players back.