The problem with Ford from an England point of view is his size. He is tiny and could be a defensive weak link.
As for the match, I'm quietly confident Ireland will win. I think the English backs are fairly blunt. Danny Care has been playing well but thats behind a dominant pack. Ireland will target to put him under pressure and also the English wingers. I think the Irish coaching team are better and Ireland has more experience and players who have played in many big games before. England are 4 points favourites in the bookies which is wrong IMO.
Long term I think it could be Furlong. Either way Leinster are well stocked these days. It wasn't so long ago the provinces had mostly journeymen foreigners and Irish props who were mostly not up to the required standard.
I don't necessarily think England are going to win, but I think your reasoning is pretty poor/not joined up.
Danny Care has been playing well but that's behind a dominant pack... Well, I suppose, but it's not as if he's only doing well the things for which you need a dominant pack. His decision making and running with ball are currently good. Speed of service is still not great.
Johnny Sexton and Murray are playing well but that's behind a dominant pack too. I'm not going to try and extrapolate too far from that. It doesn't change the fact that they're playing well, nor does it mean that they wouldn't be playing well without a dominant pack. The Irish pack has been so strong that Gordon D'Arcy was able to smash Jamie Roberts back in the tackle on one occasion.
Blunt backs? I'd be surprised if this tournament Irish backs had made more metres / beaten more defenders than England. On the face of it your statement is more true of Ireland at the moment than England - and on the evidence of performances so far, Ireland would be the more worried team without a dominant pack.
The odds? Well, We are at home, and have beaten New Zealand and Australia there in recent times. It's not completely irrational. Remember also that England went within a whisker of being 2 from 2. We're not playing poorly, let's put it that way.
Additionally, if you think the odds are wrong, put money on Ireland and you'll be onto a winner - that's what bookies odds are for!