[2014 ITM Cup] Round 8

[smartcooky]

Tasman 38-10 Canterbury

Who saw that coming?

 

[Darwin]

Whoops

Yeah. That was a poor effort by Otago. Very poor. We didn't even look like winning that match.

The most frustrating thing was that we dominated possession and territory but still got hammered. We played like a team of individuals and it cost us. I lost count of the number of times that we lost the ball at the breakdown after our ball carrier got isolated. We played dumb rugby too. Our lineout wasn't functioning so what do we do when we get a penalty? Kick the ball into the corner then precede to lose the lineout. What do we do with our next penalty? Kick the ball into the corner and proceed to lose the lineout. What do we do the next time we get a penalty? You guessed it..... At least we were consistent I suppose The bizarre things is we took off probably our two key players - Franklin and Parker - with 20 minutes to go when we still had a chance to comeback and win.... hmmm...

There were a few positives for Otago I suppose. Seiuli was again strong with ball in hand - he's probably the most effective ball running prop in the country. Coltman is good at the breakdown. Pity about his lineout throwing. Parker is looking increasing confident with ball in hand every week, and Michael Collins impressed too. We could sneak into the playoffs if we (somehow) beat Manawatu, but we certainly wouldn't deserve it based on their performances this season.

Tasman 38-10 Canterbury

Who saw that coming?

The margin of Tasman's victory is certainly a surprise to me, but having a look through the respective sides perhaps I shouldn't have been too surprised. The Canterbury backline contained 4 players who played in the recent U20 rugby World Cup, two fringe Super Rugby players (Whitelock and Thomson), and Michael Green (who that is I have no idea?). Compare that to the Tasman backline with Super Rugby players like Cowan, Banks, Lowe, and Fonotia (and Heem sounds like he is signed by a Super Rugby team next season too), with the vastly experience Malneek at fullback. The only 'unheralded' player in the backline was Havili (another U20 player this season), and he had an excellent game, and could well earn himself a Super Rugby contract next year (he's really impressed me with his versatility and skill set this year).

 

[donmcdazzle]

Big win for Manawatu this afternoon, 29-3 over Hawkes Bay. To be fair they did look pretty fatigued, especially as the turbos ripped into them and bashed them around for the first 10 minutes.

I thought the Manawatu scrum and line out drive were both very good, and the back line were excellent for the most part as well. One of our most complete performances for a couple of seasons. Cruden was pretty electric in his cameo too. One clean line break and another couple of touches that created good attack.

If we beat Otago we'll finish top of the table which would be ideal.

 

[Darwin]

No. No. No. Yes. Yes. HB.

Well I got 3/5 - that's a pass right? I should have stuck with "No" as my answer! Looks like I may be wrong picking HB to top the Championship too, but Manawatu do have the onerous task of facing Otago in the final round :huh:

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well I got 3/5 - that's a pass right? I should have stuck with "No" as my answer! Looks like I may be wrong picking HB to top the Championship too, but Manawatu do have the onerous task of facing Otago in the final round :huh:

Of course if Otago wins and both Harbour and Southland lose (to Wellington and Hawke's Bay respectively) then Otago will still make the semis!

A few weeks ago I put a few bucks on both Tasman and Taranki to win the Premiership at $7. Their odds are now $2.50 (the same as Canterbury) and $5. Sadly I also put $10 on Canterbury who were paying only $1.60

 

[Darwin]

Of course if Otago wins and both Harbour and Southland lose (to Wellington and Hawke's Bay respectively) then Otago will still make the semis!

A few weeks ago I put a few bucks on both Tasman and Taranki to win the Premiership at $7. Their odds are now $2.50 (the same as Canterbury) and $5. Sadly I also put $10 on Canterbury who were paying only $1.60

As strange as it sounds I actually think Otago making the semis is still a distinct possibility. For some reason we have had the edge over Manawatu in recent seasons, even when Manawatu have looked clearly the better side. We have actually been pretty good at home this year. Barring a disappointing loss to Northland we have had a solid win over North Harbour, thrashed Waikato, and really pushed Canterbury (when Canterbury were beating everyone by 50 earlier in the season). Hawkes Bay (at home) should be too good for Southland, and I have faith that Wellington are due for a win (I'm not actually confident in Wellington, more confident in North Harbour's ability to choke when it counts). Perhaps I'm just a bit delusional....

 

[donmcdazzle]

As strange as it sounds I actually think Otago making the semis is still a distinct possibility. For some reason we have had the edge over Manawatu in recent seasons, even when Manawatu have looked clearly the better side. We have actually been pretty good at home this year. Barring a disappointing loss to Northland we have had a solid win over North Harbour, thrashed Waikato, and really pushed Canterbury (when Canterbury were beating everyone by 50 earlier in the season). Hawkes Bay (at home) should be too good for Southland, and I have faith that Wellington are due for a win (I'm not actually confident in Wellington, more confident in North Harbour's ability to choke when it counts). Perhaps I'm just a bit delusional....

Also you have the old gambling rule of "always bet against Manawatu when they're favourites" in your favour. If we can replicate the game we played yesterday we will be too good for Otago, but as you say you've had the better of us the last few years so I'm not that confident of us putting it together like that again.

By the way, is it just my bias or does anyone else rate Otere Black and Nehe Milner-Skudder? I feel like if they were playing for another province they'd have both been snapped up by now for Super rugby.

 

[Darwin]

Also you have the old gambling rule of "always bet against Manawatu when they're favourites" in your favour. If we can replicate the game we played yesterday we will be too good for Otago, but as you say you've had the better of us the last few years so I'm not that confident of us putting it together like that again.

By the way, is it just my bias or does anyone else rate Otere Black and Nehe Milner-Skudder? I feel like if they were playing for another province they'd have both been snapped up by now for Super rugby.

Milner-Skudder has been very good this year, and certainly warrants a full Super Rugby contract. He was in the Canes WTG last season, but I wonder whether the Crusaders/Highlanders will pick him up this year (as both have room in their outside backs). Black has been impressive for a 19 year old, but I suspect he is still a year or two away from Super Rugby (perhaps he could get Canes WTG contract this season?).

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Also you have the old gambling rule of "always bet against Manawatu when they're favourites" in your favour. If we can replicate the game we played yesterday we will be too good for Otago, but as you say you've had the better of us the last few years so I'm not that confident of us putting it together like that again.

By the way, is it just my bias or does anyone else rate Otere Black and Nehe Milner-Skudder? I feel like if they were playing for another province they'd have both been snapped up by now for Super rugby.

Who would pick Otere Black? He might fit into a WTS somewhere, but would you select him ahead of any of the first fives already signed? Bankes and Barrett are obviously ahead of him at the Canes, the Chiefs have Cruden and McKenzie, the Blues have West and Hickey, the Crusaders have three All Blacks and Mounga and the Highlanders have Parker and Sopoaga.

 

[donmcdazzle]

Who would pick Otere Black? He might fit into a WTS somewhere, but would you select him ahead of any of the first fives already signed? Bankes and Barrett are obviously ahead of him at the Canes, the Chiefs have Cruden and McKenzie, the Blues have West and Hickey, the Crusaders have three All Blacks and Mounga and the Highlanders have Parker and Sopoaga.

Well I think for sure he is already better than McKenzie, and Mo'unga for that matter.

 

[Darwin]

Well I think for sure he is already better than McKenzie, and Mo'unga for that matter.

I have been impressed with Black this season, but I wouldn't have thought he was better than Mo'unga or Damien McKenzie. He is certainly a better goal-kicker and tackler than either Mo'unga or McKenzie, seems to have good composure, and can take the ball well to the line on occasion. Mo'unga and particularly McKenzie are on a completely different level in terms of ball running / distribution than Black IMO though. Though that doesn't in itself make them a better players, it does make it easier to identify them as players of immense potential, which (rightly or wrongly) is the main thing Super Rugby franchises will be looking for in very young players (not that Black doesn't have a lot of potential, it perhaps just isn't as obvious as Mo'unga's/McKenzie's).

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Well I think for sure he is already better than McKenzie, and Mo'unga for that matter.

Hmmm I'd disagree with that. I think his goal kicking is better than McKenzie's, and his defence is almost certainly better too. But for a third choice first five in a Super squad I'd say that potential is more important (providing the gulf in quality isn't massive).

 

[donmcdazzle]

I have been impressed with Black this season, but I wouldn't have thought he was better than Mo'unga or Damien McKenzie. He is certainly a better goal-kicker and tackler than either Mo'unga or McKenzie, seems to have good composure, and can take the ball well to the line on occasion. Mo'unga and particularly McKenzie are on a completely different level in terms of ball running / distribution than Black IMO though. Though that doesn't in itself make them a better players, it does make it easier to identify them as players of immense potential, which (rightly or wrongly) is the main thing Super Rugby franchises will be looking for in very young players (not that Black doesn't have a lot of potential, it perhaps just isn't as obvious as Mo'unga's/McKenzie's).

Hmmm I'd disagree with that. I think his goal kicking is better than McKenzie's, and his defence is almost certainly better too. But for a third choice first five in a Super squad I'd say that potential is more important (providing the gulf in quality isn't massive).

I think the most impressive thing about Black is his composure and decision making - that is on a different level than the other two I think and to me is more important than having a good step or whatever. If someone got injured at Super level I'd be far more comfortable plugging Black in than McKenzie/Mo'unga. McKenzie is the next Robbie Robinson I reckon - he'll be the exact same player he is now in 5 years time.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

I think the most impressive thing about Black is his composure and decision making - that is on a different level than the other two I think and to me is more important than having a good step or whatever. If someone got injured at Super level I'd be far more comfortable plugging Black in than McKenzie/Mo'unga. McKenzie is the next Robbie Robinson I reckon - he'll be the exact same player he is now in 5 years time.

I think Robinson suffered due to where he was playing. In three years at the Highlanders he didn't improve at all, from his first game with the Chiefs he's looked very sharp. Indeed it appears the same thing had happened for his provincial form now that he's moved to Harbour.

 

[Darwin]

I think the most impressive thing about Black is his composure and decision making - that is on a different level than the other two I think and to me is more important than having a good step or whatever. If someone got injured at Super level I'd be far more comfortable plugging Black in than McKenzie/Mo'unga. McKenzie is the next Robbie Robinson I reckon - he'll be the exact same player he is now in 5 years time.

McKenzie may end up like Robinson, but personally I think he has the potential to be a far better player (unlike Mr Fish I'm not convinced Robinson is anything other than an average player with phenomenal acceleration...). Though it is his ball running that stand out the most to the average pundit what impresses me far more is that he always seems to have a ridiculous amount of time with ball in hand, has the ability to identify gaps/space (and the passing game to exploit the gaps/space), and is pretty composed under pressure too (unlike most of his team-mates at U20 level!). He still has a lot of areas he needs to work on (goal-kicking and tackling are main two he needs to focus on at this stage), but IMO he has the potential to be an outstanding 10 not only at Super Rugby level, but at test level too.

I'm a lot less convinced about Mo'unga to be honest. Like McKenzie he has a very impressive running game, but I don't think he has much of an idea how to control a backline and lacks composure (as well as being a suspect defender...). At this stage I think he is a far better fullback than first-five, but I'm sure the Crusaders will look to pick him as they like keeping players from their own development system.

I do think it is very difficult to predict exactly how young players careers will pan out, especially young 10's. I reckon the two best 10's we have had at U20 level have been Tyler Bleyendaal and Dan Kirkpatrick. Both showed impressive composure and decision making, along with a good kicking game, and handy ball running games too. Neither have amounted to much at all. Cruden was good at U20 level with ball in hand, but had a very limited long kicking game, was a poor goal-kicker, and didn't display the composure of these two (or the composure that he was known for today). He turned out to be rather handy!