[2014 EOYT] Wales vs Australia

[goodNumber10]

1) Look at the 3rd Lions game
2) See what worked so well
3) ?????
4) WIN!

this is a very different Aussie side to the one the Lions played 18 months ago - they wont' be so easily brushed aside and that new flanker McMahon - that lad is immense.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

1) Look at the 3rd Lions game
2) See what worked so well
3) ?????
4) WIN!

An Englishman taking the wind out of their sails by scoring an early try, and then an Englishman stopping them getting any momentum with an excellent tap tackle?
Also an Irish 10 really bossing them all around?

 

[ratsapprentice]

Am I the only one who wishes Wales' AI's were played on Friday nights?

 

[Big Ewis]

1) Look at the 3rd Lions game
2) See what worked so well
3) ?????
4) WIN!

ah yeah, that would be the uhm...the fact that was the worst Wallabies side since the pro era, and easily years before that. Yeah...it's too bad France couldn't go there that summer in stead of NZ, I'll bet even we could've won a game in three attempts given our (RELATIVELY !!!!) okay form compared to this 2014 summer.

 

[Jbobo]

ah yeah, that would be the uhm...the fact that was the worst Wallabies side since the pro era, and easily years before that. Yeah...it's too bad France couldn't go there that summer in stead of NZ, I'll bet even we could've won a game in three attempts given our (RELATIVELY !!!!) okay form compared to this 2014 summer.

By relatively good form, do you mean wooden spoon in the Six Nations? In reality had France gone, the Wallabies would have whitewashed them 3-0 in spectacular fashion.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Charteris back with Racing Metro for the weekend, Wales have released him so they can have him for the last game of the AI's.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

I'll be really quite frustrated if Rhys Webb doesn't start on Saturday. His form has been the best of any Welsh 9 since Phillips in the World Cup. He's been the best player in the Pro12 so far this season, it'd be a game-changing call for him to stay on the bench.

 

[PiXeL_NiNja]

Looking forward to this one. Both teams will be looking to establish mental dominance over the other team with a good win here. Winner of this one = runner up in the pool of death. Heard it here first.

 

[Bean]

I really don't know who's gunna win this one. Aren't Wales not all that great at the moment?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Good to see a Cheetahs supporter here, welcome, Pixel ninja.

I agree with you this is a critical game going into 2015. England are sure to progress I also agree. You'd really think Aus should have a mental edge going into the match as Wales last beat Aussie in 2008, at home and only by 3. Before that it is mostly Aus as well. So one would really expect all the pressure would be on Wales BUT what sort of expectation might be on Cheika taking over and this'd be his first actual test match. How much does ohe look at the history book? Even then it shows the games have been tight! The only sure thing here is we are in for a cracking game!


[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH]Venue[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Score[/TH]
[TH="width: 110, bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Victor[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Comments[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8 November 2014[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]â€"[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2014 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30 November 2013[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26 â€" 30[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2013 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 December 2012[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12 â€" 14[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2012 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Sydney Football Stadium,Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20 â€" 19[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]Welsh Tour of Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Etihad Stadium, Melbourne[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25 â€" 23[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27 â€" 19[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 December 2011[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18 â€" 24[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2011 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21 October 2011[/TD]
[TD]Eden Park, Auckland[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21 â€" 18[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]3rd place playoff of 2011 Rugby World Cup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6 November 2010[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16 â€" 25[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2010 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28 November 2009[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12 â€" 33[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2009 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29 November 2008[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21 â€" 18[/TD]
[TD]

Wales[/TD]
[TD]2008 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[TheSaffycen]

I really don't know who's gunna win this one. Aren't Wales not all that great at the moment?

In the 6 nations England and Ireland beat them quite well actually. Normally if you stop Roberts than you stop their main source of front foot ball, and you need your pack to front up against them. I would expect the Aussies to beat them as Wales mentally haven't been that strong but the 3rd test against South Africa shows you just how dangerous they are.

 

[Every Time Ref]

Normally if you stop Roberts than you stop their main source of front foot ball

How do you think Aus will do that? One way is to essentially "man mark" using a back-rower in the midfield (much like England did with Worsely back in 200?) but does anyone from the Aussie back row obviously jump out as the man for this task? On top of which that could leave you man short competing at the breakdown, allowing easier quick ball for Wales, which could negate any advantage. Such a negative, reactive approach is also very un-Aussie and won't get the best out of their skills. Maybe they just send Hooper in to slow the ball down, re-organise the defence and maybe get Toomua / Keridrani to double up on Roberts (assuming he starts 13...), gambling on him not having the hands to release the winger into space.

Alternatively, they run a drift defence and trust to Toomua, the strongest midfield defender, to keep taking him all day. Overall this would be my preferred option I think, although the drift is not without its problems - potentially susceptible to the switch, for example.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Good to see a Cheetahs supporter here, welcome, Pixel ninja.

I agree with you this is a critical game going into 2015. England are sure to progress I also agree. You'd really think Aus should have a mental edge going into the match as Wales last beat Aussie in 2008, at home and only by 3. Before that it is mostly Aus as well. So one would really expect all the pressure would be on Wales BUT what sort of expectation might be on Cheika taking over and this'd be his first actual test match. How much does ohe look at the history book? Even then it shows the games have been tight! The only sure thing here is we are in for a cracking game!


[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH]Venue[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Score[/TH]
[TH="align: center"]Victor[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F2F2F2, align: center"]Comments[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8 November 2014[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]–[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2014 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30 November 2013[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26 – 30[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2013 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 December 2012[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12 – 14[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2012 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]23 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Sydney Football Stadium,Sydney[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20 – 19[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]Welsh Tour of Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Etihad Stadium, Melbourne[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25 – 23[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9 June 2012[/TD]
[TD]Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]27 – 19[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 December 2011[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]18 – 24[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2011 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21 October 2011[/TD]
[TD]Eden Park, Auckland[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21 – 18[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]3rd place playoff of 2011 Rugby World Cup[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6 November 2010[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]16 – 25[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2010 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28 November 2009[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]12 – 33[/TD]
[TD]

Australia[/TD]
[TD]2009 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29 November 2008[/TD]
[TD]Millennium Stadium, Cardiff[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]21 – 18[/TD]
[TD]

Wales[/TD]
[TD]2008 Autumn International[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

But nobody, and I mean nobody, beats Wales 10 times in a row!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

I'm really gutted this game's on at the same time as the England game - they're the two games I'm looking forward to the most out of the whole AI period.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

How do you think Aus will do that? One way is to essentially "man mark" using a back-rower in the midfield (much like England did with Worsely back in 200?) but does anyone from the Aussie back row obviously jump out as the man for this task? On top of which that could leave you man short competing at the breakdown, allowing easier quick ball for Wales, which could negate any advantage. Such a negative, reactive approach is also very un-Aussie and won't get the best out of their skills. Maybe they just send Hooper in to slow the ball down, re-organise the defence and maybe get Toomua / Keridrani to double up on Roberts (assuming he starts 13...), gambling on him not having the hands to release the winger into space.

Alternatively, they run a drift defence and trust to Toomua, the strongest midfield defender, to keep taking him all day. Overall this would be my preferred option I think, although the drift is not without its problems - potentially susceptible to the switch, for example.

Toomua at 12 should be able to contain Roberts just fine IMO. If he is in Cheika's plans though is too be seen of course.

 

[Big Ewis]

shiit the last time Wales beat Australia was exactly 2008, the year of the coaching change. I think it's safe to say the Wallabies do not fear Gatland ball. The only reason I think people are giving Wales a chance isn't because of their own strength or the fact they're at home, but because Australia only just, just got a new coach. I must admit if I'm being honest I'd have picked Aus hands down if it wasn't for that, myself. No reason this would be much different from last year's, or the recent ones before that.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

But nobody, and I mean nobody, beats Wales 10 times in a row!

That's right. Aus can go 10 in a row now isn't it. SA is at 16 in a row and NZ I didn't even care to count. I really do find it mind boggling that Wales struggle to beat the SH big three so much. I mean the class is there and the opportunities have been there countless times and as recently as their last game against us but the luck just isn't there. or mid set or just plain luck, I wouldn't know.

 

[Big Ewis]

it's got to be luck for absolute certain for Wales at some degree. One side on a tour having a hard time finishing games off (eg. Wales in Aus 2012) is one thing and a measurable tendency with given causes, like a symptom. But over a full generation, or better even, *multiple generations*, it's obviously incredibly bad luck. Sports; Rugby are often just about that bad bounce, that kick straight into touch, making that last kick...an individual mistake, an individual moment of utter brilliance that saves 14 men. Wales have been amazingly unlucky losing to Aus and SA some of those times, no doubt.

Oh and, against NZ it's...25 in a row now.

 

[TheSaffycen]

How do you think Aus will do that? One way is to essentially "man mark" using a back-rower in the midfield (much like England did with Worsely back in 200?) but does anyone from the Aussie back row obviously jump out as the man for this task? On top of which that could leave you man short competing at the breakdown, allowing easier quick ball for Wales, which could negate any advantage. Such a negative, reactive approach is also very un-Aussie and won't get the best out of their skills. Maybe they just send Hooper in to slow the ball down, re-organise the defence and maybe get Toomua / Keridrani to double up on Roberts (assuming he starts 13...), gambling on him not having the hands to release the winger into space.

Alternatively, they run a drift defence and trust to Toomua, the strongest midfield defender, to keep taking him all day. Overall this would be my preferred option I think, although the drift is not without its problems - potentially susceptible to the switch, for example.

I think Toomua will be up to the task. They could always put McMahon (? ) or their blindside covering the 10 channel. Also why do people think Roberts will play 13 ? Did something happen to Davies or did Gatland say something ?

 

[Every Time Ref]

Davies is out, no? Shoulder? I was under the impression the likely midfield was Williams-Roberts, with an outside chance of Roberts-North. Could be wrong though, haven't followed Welsh developments that closely