[2013 Pro12] Round 1

[gaston le gaff]

Could you explain why this is necessarily the case from having player restrictions?

Do the 30 men that take to the pitch not all aim to win the game? Are most games not fairly evenly matched?



I think the league is stronger than it has ever been. This year, I reckon there are 6 or 7 sides with a real chance of making the playoffs.

Glasgow
Ospreys
Blues
Leinster
Munster
Ulster
Treviso

Is that the case in the much vaunted Premiership? It'll be Leicester, Northampton, Harlequins and Saracens.

Or the even more hyped Top14? It has a 6-team play-off system... so 43% of the teams in the league are in the playoffs!

There maybe 43% of the TOP 14 qualify for the playoffs but this season there are as money as 9/10 teams who could possibly qualify for the 1st 6 places that moreorless doubles your %'s so i prsume that makes the TOP 14 a stronger and more competitive league

 

[Rhondda Rudie]

How many Welsh wins this weekend boys? I'd go for one (Ospreys) and not that confident of even that.

 

[Amiga500]

There maybe 43% of the TOP 14 qualify for the playoffs but this season there are as money as 9/10 teams who could possibly qualify for the 1st 6 places that moreorless doubles your %'s so i prsume that makes the TOP 14 a stronger and more competitive league

OK. So,

Top14: 10 of 14 going for 6 of 14 play-off spots.
Pro12: 7 of 12 going for 4 of 12 play-off spots.
Premiership: 8 of 12 going for 4 of 12 play-off spots.

Therefore, to weight out the different league sizes and playoff spots, we need to take the ratio of teams with a chance of the playoffs and multiply it by the inverse of the playoff fraction. That is:

10/14 * 14/6 = 1.67
7/12 * 12/4 = 1.75
8/12 * 12/4 = 2

The result being; the Pro12 is still a competitive league. I'm not going to say its more competitive or less. But I am going to say it is something similar. Yes, there is more external player access limitations (especially to the centrally contracted Irish provinces) - but while it may affect the strength of some teams within a given match week - it doesn't affect the overall competitiveness of the league.


Also, looking at the HEC in the last 10 years:
2 English winners (Wasps)
3 French (2x Toulouse, 1x Toulon)
5 Pro12 (2x Munster, 3x Leinster)

Or the different league winners in the last 10 years.
Top14 - 6 (Stade, Biarritz, Toulouse, Perpignan, Clermont, Castres)
Pro12 - 5 (Scarlets, Ospreys, Ulster, Munster, Leinster)
Premiership - 5 (Wasps, Sale, Leicester, Saracens, Harlequins)


So by any objective measure - the Pro12 is comparable to the Top14 and the Premiership.

 

[Peat]

fekk away off! They're ours - and you aren't getting near them!!

:-D


<although 5="" or="" 6="" into="" 2="" don't="" really="" go....="" luke="" marshall,="" paddy="" wallace,="" chris="" farrell,="" jared="" payne,="" darren="" cave,="" stuart="" olding...="" mike="" allen="" is="" a="" centre.="" thankfully="" we="" can="" play="" jp="" at="" full-back="" and="" on="" the="" wing.=""></although>[although 5 or 6 into 2 doesn't really go. Luke marshall, Paddy Wallace, Stuart Olding, Chris Farrell, Darren Cave, Jared Payne and Mike Allen are all centres - luckily we can play JP at full back and MA on the wing.]

Use Olding to cover 10 as well, throw in injuries, and all of a sudden it doesn't look too much, particularly if you assume Wallace is more cover than anything by now.

Shingler playing inside centre. I am interested in the Scarlets suddenly.

Dragons: Dan Evans; Tom Prydie, Pat Leach, Jack Dixon, Hallam Amos; Jason Tovey, Richie Rees; Aaron Coundley, T. Rhys Thomas, Dan Way, Matthew Screech, Andrew Coombs (capt), Jevon Groves, Nic Cudd, Lewis Evans.
Replacements: Hugh Gustafson, Phil Price, Francisco Chaparro, Adam Jones, Netani Talei, Jonathan Evans, Kris Burton, Ross Wardle.
From BBC

Like the backline, very young though, but something to develop. Tight five is somewhat less **** than we have seen before. Screech is already better than Nimmo and Tyler I am willing to bet. Back row will get stronger with Froby returning, might consider Ieuan Jones on the blindside when Toby is there.

What do you make of your chances tonight? Could be a banana skin is the general feeling I've got from most Ulster fans...

---

The Pro 12 has issues. I don't think this can be denied.

For me, I think the biggest issue is that about half the teams in the league are no-hopers. I tried doing an AP preview the other day, it floundered because I had real difficulties seperating the group in the middle, all of whom would be going for the top 4 slot that looks like it might be vacated. Pro 12? I honestly feel that after the big Irish 3, Ospreys, Glasgow, maybe Treviso and Scarlets, it's kinda tied down. Sorry Cardiff fans. Connacht will give anyone trouble on their day, but essentially lack the squad depth to get anywhere near the big time.

But so does every other league have issues. The Pro 12 will throw up some great rugby and will probably have a final match-up to grace any league. And it is growing stronger.

And - to answer the point that sparked this - yeah, that is where Munster are right now. Injuries and international absentees means they need to raid the cupboard and that cupboard is pretty bare on big names.

 

[BasqueBete]

Standing room only at Llanelli....


Good thing I got these tickets early doors, I would have been gutted to miss this one..

 

[Draggs]

@Peat. Nonexistent probably. More of looking at developing some nippers this season.

 

[dullonien]

Great start from Aaron Shingler for the Scarlets. He's been everywhere.

Edit. Scarlets lucky to get that try. McCusker proving that he's got no brains by diving for the line early in bone dry conditions.

 

[big ginger 8]

MO'C has clearly lost he dressing room.

How did the tmo not do his job properly.

Marty Mooooooooooooooooooooore!

 

[Draggs]

Leinster must be losing, I hear excuses.

 

[Peat]

@Peat. Nonexistent probably. More of looking at developing some nippers this season.

Looking ok so far tonight, although needless to say I disagree with the last reffing decision

edit: So Ulster go and score a try. Huzzah.

 

[big ginger 8]

Leinster must be losing, I hear excuses.

Eh? What excuses we're playing crap and deserve to be losing.

 

[Peat]

Wellp, Cockerill can rest easy, dominant scrums will be rewarded.

Draggs won't be resting easy, this is the third choice Ulster props at work...

 

[Draggs]

Wellp, Cockerill can rest easy, dominant scrums will be rewarded.

Draggs won't be resting easy, this is the third choice Ulster props at work...

Sure, but I didn't expect much from our pack. Unable to watch so thanks for the updates.

 

[dullonien]

three games at the same time is a little confusing....

 

[Peat]

Sure, but I didn't expect much from our pack. Unable to watch so thanks for the updates.

You know its on the beeb website?

 

[dullonien]

Straight feeds my arse!

 

[big ginger 8]

Moore is not having a good time in the scrum maybe McCarthy will make a difference in the 2nd half.

As I type Moore goes off with a blood injury, Ross really should make a difference!

EDIT: From that one scrum not really maybe PD will have to change his tune on Phil John! Though in fairness it does look like it is mainly a really good second shove from the back 5.

Both Shinglers and K. Philips looking good for he Scarlets.

 

[Peat]

Half-time at Rodney Parade. 6-8. More thoughts after I've gone through the shower.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

Straight feeds my arse!

If this is in relation to the scrum replay where Reddan clearly threw it to Leinster's second row, RTE's commentators watched it and said it was straight and a pleasure to see!

Scarlets are well on top. Scrums are an improvement on last season. While McCusker's try is right to be questioned for the non-grounding, I hope Leinster's non-existent midfield defence for the score isn't ignored.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

Half-time at Rodney Parade. 6-8. More thoughts after I've gone through the shower.

I see Paddy Jackson has converted 1/4 of his shots at goal. Poor misses or tough kicks?