[2013 Pro12] Round 1

[Peat]

Well, we've already seen Quins lose a game to Connacht, so that's not too far off, nor is Saracens losing to London Irish... surprises happen, that's rugby, and one example is a fluke, and the other is example of a pattern, and I don't buy that. There is no great gulf of quality. Would Newport get relegated in the Premiership? Quite likely, but they'd get relegated in the Pro 12 too if they have relegation (first Aironi would go, then Newport most likely).

And while Ulster don't have the strength in depth we should, in that we are heavily dependent on a few certain players, it was still decent enough to take us first spot in the HEC despite an injury hell. No doubt you may see it as a sign of Pro 12 weakness; I certainly see it as further evidence that the Newport result was a wee bit of a fluke. And we certainly don't have much behind the internationals, because by now that's 20 squad members... over half of whom were playing. As I said, bit of a fluke.

 

[psychic duck]

Well, we've already seen Quins lose a game to Connacht, so that's not too far off, nor is Saracens losing to London Irish... surprises happen, that's rugby, and one example is a fluke, and the other is example of a pattern, and I don't buy that. There is no great gulf of quality. Would Newport get relegated in the Premiership? Quite likely, but they'd get relegated in the Pro 12 too if they have relegation (first Aironi would go, then Newport most likely).

And while Ulster don't have the strength in depth we should, in that we are heavily dependent on a few certain players, it was still decent enough to take us first spot in the HEC despite an injury hell. No doubt you may see it as a sign of Pro 12 weakness; I certainly see it as further evidence that the Newport result was a wee bit of a fluke. And we certainly don't have much behind the internationals, because by now that's 20 squad members... over half of whom were playing. As I said, bit of a fluke.

Dragons only get a win against a near full strength team once every few seasons. The general pattern is that they only ever win against good sides when weakened.

I didn't see the game and it wouldn't surprise me if their win was a fluke, but from your previous post you seemed to suggest it was a deserved win by the better side, not a lucky fluke by the inferior side for example Connacht vs Quins, Scotland vs Australia, France vs New Zealand RWC 07 with lots of defending, missed kicks, poor referee decisions, atrocious conditions (ie uncontrollable circumstances that go in their favour) all played a part in a once in a while result.

Good to see you agree that Dragons and Zebre would both be relegated out of the other leagues though. So we're agreed that's two worse teams than anything in the Premiership. The Pro12 version of Edinburgh, Cardiff Blues would probably be in the bottom few as well, Connacht as well would be near the bottom with less matches to burgle points of the international providers either.

Also were Ulster going through injury hell last year in the HEC?

 

[dullonien]

Regarding the Dragons v Ulster match, it was interesting to see Jason Tovey taking the kicking duties. Tom Prydie is a very good place kicker, so I was expecting to see him continue with the kicking duties this season, allowing Tovey to concentrate on his other roles. Tovey's kicking was always inconsistent when he was with the Dragons before. He obviously did OK in this game though, kicking the Dragons to victory.

 

[Peat]

Re Tovey - He missed two gimmes in the first half. Ulster could have gone in out of sight if Jackson had remembered his kicking boots, and that could been really costly. He recovered, but I can't see why you'd back Tovey if Prydie was a very good place kicker.

PD, it was a fluke in that I can't see Ulster playing that poorly too often. Dragons were good value, in that they played sensible rugby and did the right things at the right time, but it might have been a whole different story if we hadn't been bent on being suicide commandos. To me, any one off result you'd bet heavily against if the match was replayed the next week is a fluke. Doesn't matter how it happened.

Zebre would be relegated, they're truly woeful. Dragons would be in the mix, but there's three pretty dodgy teams this year in the Premiership and I'm not convinced Dragons would be the worst of them. Tovey or Godman? I'll have Tovey thanks. Edinburgh should be better than they are, the decision of Andy Robinson to have a second crack at international management was a fatal one, Connacht would probably be saved by the Sportsground in most leagues at the very least... I do think the AP is better outside the top 6 or so clubs, but I stick to my line it's not a great gulf, and the quality of the offered product is as good.

Ulster's injury run - Yeah, it hit parts of the HEC group stages pretty hard. Even when we did get players back, they were pretty bloody rusty a lot of the time.

 

[profitius]

Good to see you agree that Dragons and Zebre would both be relegated out of the other leagues though. So we're agreed that's two worse teams than anything in the Premiership. The Pro12 version of Edinburgh, Cardiff Blues would probably be in the bottom few as well, Connacht as well would be near the bottom with less matches to burgle points of the international providers either.

Also were Ulster going through injury hell last year in the HEC?

I'm not so sure about that. Leinsters B&I team beat Newcastle in the final last season. That was a team of academy players mainly.

 

[psychic duck]

I'm not so sure about that. Leinsters B&I team beat Newcastle in the final last season. That was a team of academy players mainly.

And Newcastle's team had a grand total of 1 player from that match who was involved with their Premiership opener as they cared little for a match played in the midst of the Championship playoff knockout matches. It was a "younger development team" according to Dean Richards himself. Nice try though.

Zebre would be relegated, they're truly woeful. Dragons would be in the mix, but there's three pretty dodgy teams this year in the Premiership and I'm not convinced Dragons would be the worst of them. Tovey or Godman? I'll have Tovey thanks. Edinburgh should be better than they are, the decision of Andy Robinson to have a second crack at international management was a fatal one, Connacht would probably be saved by the Sportsground in most leagues at the very least... I do think the AP is better outside the top 6 or so clubs, but I stick to my line it's not a great gulf, and the quality of the offered product is as good.

And now compare the Dragons pack ...

There's little chance that pack stays up in either the Top 14 or Premiership. They are a Championship standard team with one outstanding player in Faletau who looks out of place with his teammates to be honest.

Ulster's injury run - Yeah, it hit parts of the HEC group stages pretty hard. Even when we did get players back, they were pretty bloody rusty a lot of the time.

The teamsheets wouldn't suggest an injury crisis to be honest, Ferris was the only player missing from the starting XV in the Northampton win. (http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/matchce...uderef=919fixtures&section=1&season=2012-2013)

 

[Draggs]

And now compare the Dragons pack...

What pack?

Have hope for Screech and a few of our young hookers at least.

 

[Peat]

The teamsheets wouldn't suggest an injury crisis to be honest, Ferris was the only player missing from the starting XV in the Northampton win. (http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/matchce...ncluderef=919fixtures§ion=1&season=2012-2013)

Shock horror, the fitness profile of the team varied over three months, and our best result included our strongest team. If you can't spot the omissions in some of those team sheets, you know sfa about Ulster rugby.

 

[psychic duck]

Shock horror, the fitness profile of the team varied over three months, and our best result included our strongest team. If you can't spot the omissions in some of those team sheets, you know sfa about Ulster rugby.

Which one in particular then?

None of them I would describe as "injury hell". The latter 2 had Bowe and the locks missing, and Payne missing from the last one. Luckily for you it happened with Glasgow at home who had an equal amount of injuries, and Castres in the final game where they gave a run out for a fair amount of reserves. For the hardest match vs Northampton away it was full strength.

Hardly the worst injury crisis ever, and not nearly as bad as having to travel to Toulouse with 4 of your front 5 crocked with makeshift out of position wingers like the Ospreys had to.

 

[Peat]

There's one with 7 first choice players not starting for injury related reasons and a further 4 likely benchers unavailable as well. Given your determination to support a preset argument and take things very literally, I'm not interested in taking the discussion any further than that.