So, where do we stand after the first couple of rounds of the HC (the matches that inform us the most as to the form of the players)?
1. The 5 Lions in the Ospreys pack are struggling somewhat. It may be unfair to single out any one player, but in general the Ospreys pack hasn't been as strong as expected. Hibbard and Adam appear to be struggling with the new scrum procedure (or at least they aren't as dominant as they were last season). Alun-Wyn is a long way short of his barnstorming best for the Lions. Tipuric looked much better against Northampton from the highlights, but is still maybe a little off the boil. Ian Evans isn't even playing and is now injured to boot. Add Ryan Jones' 2 mediocre displays since returning from injury, and the nucleus of the Welsh pack is looking a little fragile to me.
Maybe it's got a lot to do with the style of play the Ospreys are employing atm. Their forward play is looking predictable with one-up runners standing still receiving the ball, and a general over-reliance on their pack. But it will be eating away at the confidence of those players which would have returned from Australia full of the stuff.
2. It's difficult to assess any of the Blues players current form, other than Cuthbert (who's possibly injured). It looks as if Warbs and Halfpenny's form has dipped, but then again the Blues tactics in most of their games have varied between dreadful and non-existent.
3. Faletau is looking good, thank god!
4. The Scarlets have provided a timely boost in confidence, with the likes of Aaron Shingler, Priestland, Jon Davies, Scott Williams and Liam Williams playing well in Europe. There's a few youngsters who have really put their hands up for inclusion, especially Samson Lee and Rhodri Williams. Juries out on Jordan Williams. One of the finest attacking players I've ever seen, but he's gutless in defence, so is just as likely to cost his team a try as he is to score a stunner.
5. I haven't seen enough of the French and English based players to make an informed decision about their current form. From what I've seen/heard, North is going well, as are the two rejects Hook and Byrne. Lydiate seemed to play well against the Scarlets, but hasn't been a mainstay in the Racing side. Roberts is injured and looks unlikely to feature this Autumn. Haven't heard too much about the form of Phillips (or if he's actually retired from international duty) or Paul James.
So overall, I'm a bit worried about the game first-up against SA. We really need out pack to be at their best if we want to challenge them. Hopefully when they come together as a unit again, things will fall into place, but Gatland and McBryde have some work to do. Things are looking a little healthier in the backs, although Roberts could be a big loss, considering how important he is to our game plan. With Beck's form taking a nosedive, Scott Williams is his likely replacement, but there are still big question marks over his passing/decision making. Whilst Priestland's return to form is a boost, I hope he isn't automatic first choice. Biggar has put in some fine performances this season, despite a game plan which doesn't give him much to work with.
My selections for the Autumn (assuming Cuthbert, Ian Evans and Ken Owens are fit, but Roberts isn't):
v SA: Halfpenny, Cuthbert, Davies, S. Williams, North, Biggar, Phillips; James, Hibbard, A. Jones, A.W. Jones, Evans, Lydiate, Warburton, Faletau; Owens, Jenkins, Lee, Shingler, Tipuric, R. Rees, Priestland, L. Williams.
v Argentina: Halfpenny, Cuthbert, Davies, Beck, North, Priestland, Phillips; James/Jenkins, Hibbard, A. Jones, A.W. Jones, Evans, Lydiate, Warburton, Faletau; Owens, Jenkins/James, Lee, Shingler, Tipuric, R. Williams, Biggar, S. Williams.
v Tonga: Halfpenny, Cuthbert, North, Davies, Walker, Priestland, R. Williams; Jenkins, Owens, Lee, A.W. Jones, Charteris, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau; Hibbard, James, A. Jones, Evans, Lydiate, Phillips, Biggar, S. Williams.
v Aus: Halfpenny, Cuthbert, Davies, S.Williams/Beck, North, Priestland/Biggar, R. Williams/R. Rees; Jenkins, Hibbard, A. Jones, A.W. Jones, Evans, Warburton, Tipuric, Faletau; Owens, Bevington?, Lee, Shingler, Lydiate, R. Rees/R. Williams, Biggar/Priestland, Walker/L. Williams.
I've juggled things around a little for different matches. The team v SA is what I think is our strongest at this moment in time, with a slight skew towards physicality, hence James over Jenkins, Lydiate over the dual opensides of Warbs and Tips, Biggar for his control, and Scott Williams in the centre.
Against Argentina I think it's vital to play as close to our strongest side as possible, although depending on how Scott goes against SA I'd possibly bring in Beck at 12. I know Beck isn't playing well, but I don't think he's being allowed to do what he does best at the O's. Of course if Scott plays well against SA, then retain him. I think Priestland could help to get Beck into the game, hence his inclusion ahead of Biggar, although once again this depends on the SA game.
Tonga was a difficult one for me. One the one hand I didn't want to make wholesale changes, but it is our only chance to try a few options. Moving North into the centre is something I'm uncertain about, but without Roberts it's a good chance to do so and opens up a wing spot for Walker. I think we have to try someone else at 9 in this game, because I think Phillips' time is coming to an end. Rhodri Williams get's my vote, with Priestland again starting for familiarity. Lee is a player who I think deserves a shot in a position where we're desperate for depth. I also think this is a good game to re-introduce Charteris, and to re-try the Warburton-Tipuric experiment. I've retained a strong bench for if things aren't quite working out.
The Aus game is difficult to select for, because a lot of it depends on what happens in the previous 3. However I do think it's a game where both Warburton and Tipuric should start. The breakdown is crucial to how Aus play, so we need to disrupt their ball as much as possible, and prevent them from disrupting ours. Having two opensides is imo the best way to do that.
Edit. Am I expecting too much from the likes of Alun-Wyn Jones, Warburton, Faletau, Davies, Cuthbert, North and Halfpenny to be starting every match after such a long season which included a Lions tour? I'd like to be able to rest every player for at least one game, but I don't think we've got the strength in depth to do so. The primary aim for this series is to win as many games as possible, so that any confidence generated by the 6 nations and Lions tour isn't diminished. Tonga may not be as strong as Argentina and Samoa who we lost to last AI's, but we must not underestimate them. As such, those key players I feel need to remain throughout in order to retain some cohesion.
Further edit. Edited the Aus side to account for the likely absences of Phillips, James and Gill. By all accounts North, Lydiate and Roberts (if fit) will be available.
