World Cup, one year to go

[Draggs]

With one year until the World Cup, how do you think the semi, quarter and final matches will look?
Australia are looking stronger with each test, and certainly have potential to make it far.

...Tried to make it a poll and clicked out of it, ah well.

 

[Seaton]

hmmmm


Australia vs. Wales
Ireland vs. South Africa
New Zealand vs. Argentina/Scotland
England vs. France


except for New Zealands opponents, I would feel safe putting money on this

 

[Finerz]

hmmmm



New Zealand vs. Argentina/Scotland



except for New Zealands opponents, I would feel safe putting money on this

i agree. its gonna be a tough call between scotland and argentina. we are pretty much level, and may go down to bonus points and point difference.

 

[Dizzy]

Australia vs France
New Zealand vs South Africa

New Zealand vs Australia....

And I am yet to decide who will win the final....

This medium claimed he had never seen a game of rugby before and he was asked if he could provide an answer for "Who will win the rugby world cup next year" and instantly he said Australia.. without hesitation...

so Im a bit worried.

 

[dan the man]

Quarter Finals

Australia vs Wales
England vs France
South Africa vs Ireland
New Zealand vs Argentina

Semi Finals

Australia vs England
New Zealand vs South Africa

Final

New Zealand vs Australia

But it wouldn't surprise me if Wales and/or France got into the Semi's, and New Zealand vs South Africa in the semi's... I'm feeling nervous already

 

[Melhor Time]

With one year until the World Cup, how do you think the semi, quarter and final matches will look?
Australia are looking stronger with each test, and certainly have potential to make it far.

I would not put a cent on Australia. If Australia play poor they will be knock over by Italy and Ireland and not make the quarter finals. Italy have done well in the past vs Australia. never given a chance to win but have on more than one occasion pushed Australia to the limit. Pool C will be won by the Wallabies though, with Ireland and Italy in a classic match in Dunedin in the final pool match. I think Italy can get the win. Its early to predict but I have seen some great players come through for Treviso in the Magners League whilst Ireland look set to field the same team from 2009. Italy will field their strongest ever side, assuming there are no injuries.



In terms of who will lift the RWC my money would be on France who even if they do poor in their pool are guaranteed their place in the quarter finals. I would put money on Japan to defeat both Canada and Tonga. Tonga will not win a game - the first team opening a RWC to do so. France will field a very similar side to the 2009 one that drew the series 1-1 in New Zealand. Its worth betting on France to win the pool match. I am not sure yet as like all teams there is such ba long time to go but I do think they have a great chance. For now I will say NZ, but just for now.



In Pool D Wales are worth a bet against. South Africa, Samoa and Fiji in the same pool. Three teams that Wales always has problems with, always. If they simply do not have their best players playing and in good form they will lose to one of the Island sides whilst South Africa look like winning the group comfortably I would suggest. I think Italy are more likely to win vs Ireland and Fiji or Samoa are vs Wales. Fiji should be third in the pool.

In Pool B, the real one to watch it is three of the best forward packs in the world. Three forward packs who are better than all teams in Pool C. This is thr interesting point. The forwards should be in a stalemate so I think the backs will really be the difference. Scotland have one ace up their sleeve - Max Evans. England and Argentina have more quality in the backs and it will show. The organizers made an interesting choice in having Arg vs Eng in the first weekend. I think Arg will take out the pool.

I think the backs will be:

Argentina 9 Vergallo, 10 Hernandez, 11 Amorisino, 12 Contepomi, 13 Tiesi, 14 Camacho, 15 Rodruguez

England 9 Care, 10 Wilkinson, 11 Strettle, 12 Flutey, 13 Tait, 14 Ashton, 15 Armitage

Scotland 9 Cuisiter, 10 Parks, 11 Danielli, 12 Morrison, 13 M Evans, 14 S Lamont 15 R Lamont

Thus the QF's would be:

1. Australia vs Wales.
2. Argentina vs France
3. South Africa vs Italy
4. New Zealand vs England

 

[dullonien]

Can't see Italy beating Ireland, no matter what team Italy are fielding. Irish provinces are prooving yet again in the HC that they are nowhere neer the spent force some people were claiming (foolishly). The national side has been consistenly playing well, and beating SH teams at regular intervals. Have Italy ever beaten Ireland? Ireland will make it to the quarters, and could do so as pool winners if they perform on the day.

I'm gonna reserve judjement on Wales v Samoa and Fiji until after the AI's, but I don't think a team coached by Gatland will lose to either. We can win ugly if needed, unlike v Fiji in 2007 where we played into their hands with possibly the worst tactics ever! The way SA are going, we could sneak through as pool winners, though that is unlikely in the WC.

Alot has been said of pool C already, where you underestimate Scotlands backs. Watching Edinburgh and Glasgow in the HC, both teams attacking was far from poor, while both Lamonts can rip teams to shreds on their day. Two top quality scrum halves, and some choices at 10 also helps. This pool will go to the wire, and I can't decide who will go through, though I do think England will top the pool considering the way they are improving.

 

[Feicarsinn]

I can see us making the semi's this time around, which would be a fantastic result. We should put the Italians away fairly easily, seriously they've never beaten us home or away, and the Aussies are no great shakes either, despite what some people are saying. That would leave us up against either South Africa or Wales, both of whom we have very good records against in recent years.


Our main goal should be to keep Sexton, Ferris, O'Driscoll and Heaslip fit and firing for next August. These guys are truly world class and when supplemented by the likes of Earls, Bowe, Kearney, Fitzgerald and Wallace they should be a good game for anyone. It would be nice to have Paulie back at some stage too mind, but Donncha and Leo could do a great job if asked.


Melhor, I seriously think you overrate Italy. They've never beaten Ireland or Australia as far as I know. Their backs are pretty cack and their forwards aren't an awful lot better than their opposition's packs. Considering their best bet is ten man rugby, their half backs would need to be at least as good as their counterparts and from what I've seen over the last two seasons Canavosio/Tebaldi and Gower are no match for Reddan/ O'Leary and Sexton and Genia and Cooper. I'd be shocked if they progress to the last 8.

 

[Darwin]

I would not put a cent on Australia. If Australia play poor they will be knock over by Italy and Ireland and not make the quarter finals. Italy have done well in the past vs Australia. never given a chance to win but have on more than one occasion pushed Australia to the limit. Pool C will be won by the Wallabies though, with Ireland and Italy in a classic match in Dunedin in the final pool match. I think Italy can get the win. Its early to predict but I have seen some great players come through for Treviso in the Magners League whilst Ireland look set to field the same team from 2009. Italy will field their strongest ever side, assuming there are no injuries.

I disagree. In my opinion Australia are easily the second favourites for next years RWC (behind the AB's). The new law interpretations really suit their style of play, and they are a side on the improve - they are the one side as an AB supporter I would be worried about facing more than any other.

In terms of who will lift the RWC my money would be on France who even if they do poor in their pool are guaranteed their place in the quarter finals. I would put money on Japan to defeat both Canada and Tonga. Tonga will not win a game - the first team opening a RWC to do so. France will field a very similar side to the 2009 one that drew the series 1-1 in New Zealand. Its worth betting on France to win the pool match. I am not sure yet as like all teams there is such ba long time to go but I do think they have a great chance. For now I will say NZ, but just for now.

I do agree that France could be a threat come RWC time, however I wouldn't read too much into their performances against the AB's in early 2009. The AB side at the time (missing the likes of Carter and McCaw) was considered by many as the worst All Black side in 10 years (this was even before the matches versus France). Though I'm sure the French side will take a lot of confidence from winning in NZ, they will face a very different AB side in 2011.

I'd be surprised if Tonga doesn't win a game - they generally perform well during the RWC (when they have access to all off their players).. Personally I'd expect them to beat both Japan and Canada, though they may be reasonably close games.

In Pool D Wales are worth a bet against. South Africa, Samoa and Fiji in the same pool. Three teams that Wales always has problems with, always. If they simply do not have their best players playing and in good form they will lose to one of the Island sides whilst South Africa look like winning the group comfortably I would suggest. I think Italy are more likely to win vs Ireland and Fiji or Samoa are vs Wales. Fiji should be third in the pool.

Yeah, South Africa should go through. I think Samoa will be the stronger of the two Island sides - I would expect Wales to win, but wouldn't be surprised to see either Fiji or Samoa pull off the upset.

I'm picking the quarter finals to be:
Australia v Wales
England v France
South Africa v Ireland
New Zealand v Argentina

 

[Shaggy]

I disagree. In my opinion Australia are easily the second favourites for next years RWC (behind the AB's). The new law interpretations really suit their style of play, and they are a side on the improve - they are the one side as an AB supporter I would be worried about facing more than any other.

I agree with your disagreement ... only variables would be if Australia suffer injuries in the key forward positions, and if teams can exploit that, or if Ireland qualify top of the pool (Ireland have a good record against Australia), which would set up a quarter final with South Africa.

I do agree that France could be a threat come RWC time, however I wouldn't read too much into their performances against the AB's in early 2009. The AB side at the time (missing the likes of Carter and McCaw) was considered by many as the worst All Black side in 10 years (this was even before the matches versus France). Though I'm sure the French side will take a lot of confidence from winning in NZ, they will face a very different AB side in 2011.

I am quietly confident about the AB's (not over confident) ... plus the last time they lost at Eden park was 2004 ... to the French

I'd be surprised if Tonga doesn't win a game - they generally perform well during the RWC (when they have access to all off their players).. Personally I'd expect them to beat both Japan and Canada, though they may be reasonably close games.

I am hoping that Canada does well, but NZ conditions will probably suit the Island teams more

Yeah, South Africa should go through. I think Samoa will be the stronger of the two Island sides - I would expect Wales to win, but wouldn't be surprised to see either Fiji or Samoa pull off the upset.

I'm picking the quarter finals to be:
Australia v Wales
England v France
South Africa v Ireland
New Zealand v Argentina

Quite likely except maybe Scotland for Argentina, possibly Australia and Ireland reversed ... maybe (but not probable) Samoa for Wales

 

[Melhor Time]

I can see us making the semi's this time around, which would be a fantastic result. We should put the Italians away fairly easily, seriously they've never beaten us home or away, and the Aussies are no great shakes either, despite what some people are saying. That would leave us up against either South Africa or Wales, both of whom we have very good records against in recent years..

Italy have beaten Ireland three times.

Italy have come close to beating Australia on more than one occasion losing by 7 points, 3 points and even 1 point.

This Irish team right now is good but similar to that of 2007. Remember Ireland defeated Australia and South Africa in November 2006 then got knocked out at the group stage in France 2007. Ireland hosted Italy in August 2007 and were very lucky to win after a forward pass was missed by the ref leading up to the try which O'Gara scored that seemed to be a knock-on and was condemned as being one by the rugby press following the match.

Melhor, I seriously think you overrate Italy. They've never beaten Ireland or Australia as far as I know. Their backs are pretty cack and their forwards aren't an awful lot better than their opposition's packs. Considering their best bet is ten man rugby, their half backs would need to be at least as good as their counterparts and from what I've seen over the last two seasons Canavosio/Tebaldi and Gower are no match for Reddan/ O'Leary and Sexton and Genia and Cooper. I'd be shocked if they progress to the last 8.

Italy have defeated Ireland three times.

I disagree that 10 man rugby is their plan. They did not play this way in South Africa and came away with better results than in their previous visits to South Africa. Gower did not play a kicking game. He passed a lot and ran the ball at the line too. Mallet did not get the guy into the team to play the same way as Italy did vs Scotland in France 2007 (which they were unlucky to lose). Gower is there to put guys in space. he may end up playing 12 with Riccardo Bocchino playing 10 or maybe even Burton. Canale is out of favor with Clermont and Mirco Bergamasco should keep playing wing meaning Masi will likely be 13 and maybe Gower 12 indeed. Garcia is out of the squad for november.

The positive thing for Italy is the Magners League. The 2 teams are packed with Italian players. Leinster seems to have more non-Irish players than Treviso do. Ulster certainly have more imports. Munster also have imports. The interesting thing about this is that only Tommy Bowe is not playing in Ireland. All 33 others for the novmeber internationals are based in Ireland. Nacewa, Howlett, Pienaar, Mafi, Hines and Wright to name a few are getting game time ahead of players on the list for november. Aironi and Treviso are, of course, not dominating the League but considering it is their first seasons they are doing fine. I have non doubt in my mind that the players will be physically improved and certainly better players from the experience. It will no longer be Parisse and the Bergamasco's looking like they are the only players on the field.

Italy did much better vs South Africa than Ireland did vs New Zealand. Ireland are favorites to get through vs Italy but it will be tight. It is definetly worth a bet on the Italians.

 

[ranger]

I really respect your knowledge on and passion for the smaller teams Melhor Time, but i think you are going a bit overboard with your expectations of them.. I remember you predicting similar miracles on the old IRB forum years ago and it didn't pan out then either.

To me the underdog with the best chance of upsetting some of the big names is again Samoa. They look to have one of their best squads ever assembled next year, nearly all their historical weaknesses have been remedied this time around.
Anthony Perenise, Kahn Fotuali'i, Paul Williams, Serge Lilo and David Smith are all potentially All Blacks caliber and have declared (or are about to) for Samoa. Thats a huge boost in positions where they are really needed. Who knows what other top players will come out of the woodwork for Samoa in the next year.
With NZ and Australian defections they look like they can improve their squad immensely in the coming months before the cup. I'm willing to put some money on them taking out 2nd in their pool and Wales going home early.

 

[Charles]

Ranger: agreed.

Samoa will have a monster of a pack for a start, with a good scrum, which will at least be able to hold its own. Census Johnston, Perenise, Taele, Stowers, Tuilagi, Tekori, all good players used to the grinding physical nature of the NH rugby.

 

[Amobokoboko]

I have to agree here, the underdog team will most likely will be a Pacific Island team.
Already looking forward to see Samoa play next month

 

[durbutter]

Italy have beaten Ireland three times.

Italy have come close to beating Australia on more than one occasion losing by 7 points, 3 points and even 1 point.

This Irish team right now is good but similar to that of 2007. Remember Ireland defeated Australia and South Africa in November 2006 then got knocked out at the group stage in France 2007. Ireland hosted Italy in August 2007 and were very lucky to win after a forward pass was missed by the ref leading up to the try which O'Gara scored that seemed to be a knock-on and was condemned as being one by the rugby press following the match.





Italy have defeated Ireland three times.

I disagree that 10 man rugby is their plan. They did not play this way in South Africa and came away with better results than in their previous visits to South Africa. Gower did not play a kicking game. He passed a lot and ran the ball at the line too. Mallet did not get the guy into the team to play the same way as Italy did vs Scotland in France 2007 (which they were unlucky to lose). Gower is there to put guys in space. he may end up playing 12 with Riccardo Bocchino playing 10 or maybe even Burton. Canale is out of favor with Clermont and Mirco Bergamasco should keep playing wing meaning Masi will likely be 13 and maybe Gower 12 indeed. Garcia is out of the squad for november.

The positive thing for Italy is the Magners League. The 2 teams are packed with Italian players. Leinster seems to have more non-Irish players than Treviso do. Ulster certainly have more imports. Munster also have imports. The interesting thing about this is that only Tommy Bowe is not playing in Ireland. All 33 others for the novmeber internationals are based in Ireland. Nacewa, Howlett, Pienaar, Mafi, Hines and Wright to name a few are getting game time ahead of players on the list for november. Aironi and Treviso are, of course, not dominating the League but considering it is their first seasons they are doing fine. I have non doubt in my mind that the players will be physically improved and certainly better players from the experience. It will no longer be Parisse and the Bergamasco's looking like they are the only players on the field.

Italy did much better vs South Africa than Ireland did vs New Zealand. Ireland are favorites to get through vs Italy but it will be tight. It is definetly worth a bet on the Italians.

God, you're in for some shock come 6N, when Italy finish last. Again.

Ireland have come on in a huge way since 2007. We've depth in every position, our provinces have been some of the best teams in europe. Finally because 2007 was such an organisational failure, there is no chance of it happening again.

You are deluded.

btw Treviso were just awful last night, Munster missing 12 players and still were better than every single one of their opponents.

Deluded.

 

[Amobokoboko]

Well it's true that Italy had better results against SA then expected but if you look at the rest of the games SA played in July, Aug and Sep you have to say they played like crap. I also support Italian rugby and I do think they have some potential but it will take time and lots of effort before they start ending in the middle order of the 6N 's and as soon as that happens then we have a team that might make it to the second round of a WC

 

[ws4life]

I really respect your knowledge on and passion for the smaller teams Melhor Time, but i think you are going a bit overboard with your expectations of them.. I remember you predicting similar miracles on the old IRB forum years ago and it didn't pan out then either.

To me the underdog with the best chance of upsetting some of the big names is again Samoa. They look to have one of their best squads ever assembled next year, nearly all their historical weaknesses have been remedied this time around.
Anthony Perenise, Kahn Fotuali'i, Paul Williams, Serge Lilo and David Smith are all potentially All Blacks caliber and have declared (or are about to) for Samoa. Thats a huge boost in positions where they are really needed. Who knows what other top players will come out of the woodwork for Samoa in the next year.
With NZ and Australian defections they look like they can improve their squad immensely in the coming months before the cup. I'm willing to put some money on them taking out 2nd in their pool and Wales going home early.

Ah the old IRB forum....great times we had there.

on the note Of David smith and Serge Lilo, where did you hear about them declaring their alleigance to samoa? Any sources??

 

[Conal]

when did ireland lose to italy??

 

[ranger]

Ah the old IRB forum....great times we had there.

on the note Of David smith and Serge Lilo, where did you hear about them declaring their alleigance to samoa? Any sources??

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/serge-signals-samoan-intentions-3421126
http://www.samoarugbyunion.ws/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=366&Itemid=164

If he wasn't injured Serge would be touring next month. The David Smith rumour turned out to be false though, he said earlier that he was considering it, but it turns out that he played sevens for NZ a few years back, ruling him ineligible.

I have heard other rumours that they have approached Faifili Levavae, Jack Lam, Charlie Faumuina and Peter Sai'ili again, but i wouldn't bet on them signing on

 

[nickdnz]

http://tvnz.co.nz/rugby-news/serge-signals-samoan-intentions-3421126
http://www.samoarugbyunion.ws/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=366&Itemid=164

If he wasn't injured Serge would be touring next month. The David Smith rumour turned out to be false though, he said earlier that he was considering it, but it turns out that he played sevens for NZ a few years back, ruling him ineligible.

I have heard other rumours that they have approached Faifili Levavae, Jack Lam, Charlie Faumuina and Peter Sai'ili again, but i wouldn't bet on them signing on

You'll find that many players will not defect to Samoa, because it could cost them their Super 14/15 contracts. It'd be great to have seen Smith play for Samoa, but realistically, he'd have to move to Europe to play in a fully professional competition.