I really respect your knowledge on and passion for the smaller teams Melhor Time, but i think you are going a bit overboard with your expectations of them.. I remember you predicting similar miracles on the old IRB forum years ago and it didn't pan out then either.
What was your user name on the IRB forum?
I predicted France to knock New Zealand out of France 2007 months in advance on this forum and was laughed at and insulted.
I predicted Argentina to win the pool and see Ireland eliminated again many felt it was nonsense to say this would happen. Ireland were considered vastly superior - backed up by their home wins vs Australia and South Africa in November 2006. Who would dare suggest Argentina and France could then knock them out of the World Cup 10 months latter? The current Irish side is similar. The strenghts are much the same and the players are quite similar too. Some great players there now like Tommy Bowe and Jamie Heaslip but I need to see a better scrum, faster backrow and better performaces from Sexton at 10 for Ireland first. Ireland have done well of course. A great win vs Wales and vs England too this year but a loss at home to Scotland - the same side that lost to Italy.
Ireland got a win vs South Africa last november. It was 15-10 with no tries scored by Ireland. Ireland played Australia in June and lost 22-15 again no tries from the Irish. So, you can see my opinion of Ireland is not merely guesswork. The results vs Fiji, Italy and Samoa post 2007 suggest teh team is very strong but put the pressure on of a RWC match that is do or die and will Bowe get 2 tries, or will Ireland play a less expansive game knowing that if they lose they are gone? In France 2007 they tried to be expansive and had to because they needed 4 tries. They lost. In Australia 2003 it was a 16-15 win over Argentina with one try. The win came on the 78 minute mark with an O'Gara penalty. The game was not exapnsive, not at all. Pressure The current Italy team is similar to that Argentine side. Back then half of the Pumas backs were amateur players. None of the Italians are. Ireland, in theory, should walk over a team like this. But, thats only in theory. Consider at RWC 1999 they were beaten by Argentina who had 2 pro players and 13 amateurs. Ireland scored no tries and it was not an exansive game.
Of course everyone gets calls correct and incorrect. I went for Wales over Fiji by 20 points. I went for Italy over Scotland by 5 and I went for Canada over Fiji. So I really did mess up with Fiji in 2007 but was satisfied in getting Argentina and France correct.
You can probably dig up the old threads if you like.
To me the underdog with the best chance of upsetting some of the big names is again Samoa. They look to have one of their best squads ever assembled next year, nearly all their historical weaknesses have been remedied this time around.
Anthony Perenise, Kahn Fotuali'i, Paul Williams, Serge Lilo and David Smith are all potentially All Blacks caliber and have declared (or are about to) for Samoa. Thats a huge boost in positions where they are really needed. Who knows what other top players will come out of the woodwork for Samoa in the next year.
With NZ and Australian defections they look like they can improve their squad immensely in the coming months before the cup. I'm willing to put some money on them taking out 2nd in their pool and Wales going home early.
I would love to this (following video) see again but think it is a 10% or less chance.
I am not so sold on Samoa, not just yet at least. The potential is clearly there but losing at home to Japan suggests that Samoa need to improve to be capable of defeating three of Wales, Fiji, Namibia and South Africa. Since France 2007 Samoa have defeated Fiji, Japan, Papua New Guinea and Tonga. Four strong sides but not enough to suggest a the team is the strongest underdog. Italy over Ireland looks like a better bet to me at this stage.
Italy hosted Samoa in November 2009 in what was an ideal match for both teams. Italy were helped by Fa'afili getting sent off but Italy were still the much better team. In addition to Italy, Samoa have also lost to Fiji, France, Japan, New Zealand and Wales since France 2007. They will play Japan away in a weeks time. If they can win the match by 14 or more then I will say Samoa are indeed a strong chance but I think Japan will get the win. Samoa will then tour Europe winless.
I am in favor of Fiji not Samoa at this stage. In my opinion, the Fijians in Europe are more numerous and impressive this season than the Samoans. You do list a number of impressive players but if Samoa are to succeed they will need a host of others like Fotunuupule Auelua playing for them. I think Auelua, George Stowers and Iosefa Tekori are the three best Samoans in Europe.
Wales were poor vs Samoa in the same month as the match vs Italy. France hosted Samoa too and it was a total walkover. Defensive formations were not flash which is in contrast to Italy who continue to have problems scoring tries but have done absolute wonders in their defensive arrangements over the past decade.
