Who do you think will be the new powers of world rugby in the coming decades?

[Superalexmarket]

I think Georgia, Russia and the USA, have a chance of being among the top ten of the IRB in a couple of decades.

 

[Hulk Hogan]

Russia and Japan, interest for the game is exploding in these countries.

 

[lucky number 7]

New Zealand , I hear they are developing a taste for the game down there.


But on a more serious note Georgia and Russia would be my bet

 

[admartian]

USA - if corporate gets behind it. Which seems like the only way any non-Yank sport would get any traction.

 

[norcalbuff]

Georgia should improve but they are limited by a small population and a weak economy.

Youth rugby has exploded in the last couple years in the US so that should set the foundation for the future here. While we will always lose our best rugby athletes to football, if you have guys coming back to rugby after not making the NFL with previous rugby experience as opposed to starting from scratch at 23 or 24, that would greatly improve our team. We already get a few of these like Samu Manoa recently, but we should get quite a few more in the future with the growth of youth rugby.

 

[admartian]

Georgia should improve but they are limited by a small population and a weak economy.

Youth rugby has exploded in the last couple years in the US so that should set the foundation for the future here. While we will always lose our best rugby athletes to football, if you have guys coming back to rugby after not making the NFL with previous rugby experience as opposed to starting from scratch at 23 or 24, that would greatly improve our team. We already get a few of these like Samu Manoa recently, but we should get quite a few more in the future with the growth of youth rugby.

If you guys can somehow pry Haloti Ngata back from the Ravens, world rugby should shake in its boots.

 

[norcalbuff]

Those are the type of guys we will never get unless football becomes too dangerous due to concussions. But yeah, he would be a beast just like he was in high school. There is one way we can get that type of athlete in rugby and that's if they don't do well enough in school to get into college since it's virtually impossible to play in the NFL without playing college football. It appears that may be how Sione Otusia Tupouatu ended up back in rugby and recently signed with La Rochelle in France.

 

[Peat]

If it's going to happen, I'd bet on Russia, who have the money and interest to make it happen, and a large population base.

I think America will always be hamstrung by a preference for American sports, which will make the funding for a quality American league, which groups their best and gets them used to playing in the same style, very difficult to get. I also wouldn't be surprised if they latched onto 7s and ignored 15s as a result.

Japan have been interested for ages, if it was going to happen it would. I also think they're always going to struggle to find athletes built on the same lines as the rest of the rugby world, which will always result in an inferior pack. Georgia will need NZ-esque levels of dedication and knowledge of the game to make it, due to low population levels.

I'm just going to throw an outside bet on Brazil - it's the second biggest growing sport there, they've got a gigantic population base, and they've got a great opportunity to promote the game with the Olympics and 7s. They've also got huge ambitions - they've been getting in coaches from Canterbury to help them and put together a high-performance plan. It'll take a few decades for it to come together - but there is real potential simply in demographic terms, and it seems oodles of ambition.

 

[BZHopenside]

By the numbers, the USA is already top 10 or even 5 in the world for participation. However, if we can't translate those numbers into TV audiences, then rugby in America not get the money it needs to take off. I know a lot of guys who play but have never watched a top level match.

 

[Superalexmarket]

By the numbers, the USA is already top 10 or even 5 in the world for participation.
????????????

 

[Sam Owen]

No one really knows, that is the best answer. We could say Samoa its just as good a guess as America. Im gonna say Samoa and Im not going to try and rationalise it because in the end its not certain.

 

[TRF_heineken]

Based on current movements and financial stability, and the major influx of pure talent from african shores to better playing opportunities, I would have to say:

Scotland and Ireland

 

[norcalbuff]

By the numbers, the USA is already top 10 or even 5 in the world for participation.
????????????

The IRB page on the US has us at around 450,000 rugby players, with about 300,000 of those being pre-teens. This is largely due to the growth of a program called Rookie Rugby, which won the IRB Development Award in 2011. 10 years ago pre-teen rugby would have been basically non-existent here. I grew up in an area that is generally considered one of the top two areas in the US for high school and youth rugby and there was basically nothing below the high school level when I was growing up (I'm 25). Now there are tons of youth rugby clubs there going down to as young as U8s.

 

[RWC2011Fan]

Probably Canada, followed by Japan, USA, Russia and Georgia.
According to Wikipedia, rugby's the national sport of Georgia. So a shitty Irish team can really make that much of a difference, huh.

 

[tomchang01]

i think maybe is Japan, they are powerful

 

[William18]

I reckon Canada, USA and Russia are the best bets. Not Japan. They will never be strong at rugby because of the physique of their players and they are already passionate about Baseball and Soccer. USA has other sports too but a far bigger market. I think the person who said Brazil could be on to something because they are a growing population. It would be good if Argentina could really spread the game in that area of the world. I think Germany could be a long term prospect as well.

 

[Nielsch]

Spain

 

[psychic duck]

Russia and Japan, interest for the game is exploding in these countries.

Wrong. I don't know where you've got this idea from but rugby is very much a minority sport in both of them.

In Japan their national rugby team is currently getting half the attendance of the women's national football team, and attendances have been going down these past few years not improving, although they do have a World Cup which could get more interest in it there although it is likely their side won't have much success. Rugby was more popular in the pre professional age there.

Meanwhile in Russia rugby is even more of a minority sport. Their national team matches are played in front of crowds of merely 1000 and they don't get on national TV, and some domestic matches played in what looks like local parks. But they do have a heartland for Russian rugby in Krasnoyarsk and growing government funding.

There are only two nations outside Tier 1 who get 20,000 + crowds. Georgia have got 60,000 in the past, and also have 28,000 ground they use, and Madagascar get 40,000. That is where rugby is most popular and seen as a major sport in those nations.

If it's going to happen, I'd bet on Russia, who have the money and interest to make it happen, and a large population base.

The interest? Their matches get hardly any attendance nor do they get on TV. Look at this picture. This is partly because it is too cold in the European season (September-May) to play in the Russian rugby heartland though, they would get better attendances if they had a summer schedule, instead of playing the ENC in February/March alongside the 6 Nations.

Japan have been interested for ages, if it was going to happen it would. I also think they're always going to struggle to find athletes built on the same lines as the rest of the rugby world, which will always result in an inferior pack.

Japan were interested, they even beat Scotland (during a Lions tour period) in the 1980's. But interest is dropping and continuing to drop since then, the sport market is also competitive there with several other sports to compete with.

 

[Thingimubob]

From what I've seen of Germany, the growth of rugby is surprisingly good. I'm in a relatively small city in Bavaria, and there's quite a few teams around here, one of which I keep meaning to join up with. The majority of the population doesn't know much about it (spent 30 mins explaining it to a guy on the train last week, plus another 30 trying to explain Wales isn't in England ) but from a few team websites I've seen it seems to be mostly Germans in the teams, with a sprinkling of expats and foreign students like me.
Very much doubt they'll be the next superpower, but wouldn't be too surprised to maybe see them climb up to the level of Spain or Russia.

 

[welshglory]

I've heard that before the football world cup in Japan, rugby was ahead in the popularity ranks. Since then though Football has definitely taken over, Japanese soccer players moving overseas and becoming idols for youngsters has also helped. I even flipped on the telly and saw a packed stadium for Japan v Iraq!

Let's hope the 2019 world cup can have a similar impact.
Hopefully some Japanese players will be picked up overseas, although it's probably just as well staying in Japan with a decent salary and a career in the corporation's afterwards. European employment laws also means it's hard to employ American or Japanese players.
I know for a fact that the Ospreys could have done with Kosuke Endo this year! And any European club could do with Michael Leitch, i seriously rate him.