What might happen in the rankings

[dasNdanger]

^ wow, that was just way too advanced in the department of cliché American-style pirate talk !...you're at least a good class or 2 ahead of me, but beware, stormer is a fierce enemy, and a worthy foe !

A worthy foe, indeed!!


deadeye das

 

[Aristodemus]

Anyone really care about these meaningless rankings outside the RWC qualification thing?

They aren't great indicators of a side's strength. If you swapped Argentina and Samoa's fixtures over this past year around then the ranking too would probably swap round as well.

I think a mathematical system based solely on performance is a much better indicator of strength than opinion. Maybe Argentina have suffered by joining the Tri-Nations but if they can start to win one or two a year they will fly up in the rankings.

 

[French TommyGun]

I think a mathematical system based solely on performance is a much better indicator of strength than opinion. Maybe Argentina have suffered by joining the Tri-Nations but if they can start to win one or two a year they will fly up in the rankings.

I would have to agree the system does work. It's plain to see! It's not a coincidence that the best teams in the world are always at the top!

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

Exactly. The poll reads "most likely"- and not "biggest" upset.

my bad lol

 

[TRF_Olyy]

:Hey, don't you have a girlfriend who's a parasite...er I mean Parisian ?! Where's teh supports, mayt !

....no?
My parents live near Perpignan but that's as French as I get.

 

[Big Ewis]

....no?
My parents live near Perpignan but that's as French as I get.

oh, right...shyt, you're the one with parents in France. OH ! It's Henry who's got one...not that you all look like a bunch of interchangeable Englishmen to me !!
OK so sorry then, carry on supporting NZ then.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

As long as Ireland get back ahead of Samoa and stay ahead of Wales I'll be satisfied with the next three weeks!

 

[Big Ewis]

As long as Ireland get back ahead of Samoa and stay ahead of Wales I'll be satisfied with the next three weeks!

oh really, just that ? You're not asking for much these days huh pal...you sure you don't want to swap places with France too, we're bored with Top 5 status.

 

[big ginger 8]

oh really, just that ? You're not asking for much these days huh pal...you sure you don't want to swap places with France too, we're bored with Top 5 status.

Well you certainly look it.

 

[Big Ewis]

Well you certainly look it.

haha, well that was a setup anyways...well exploited. But now, now, Ireland are in no place to be talking either !

 

[big ginger 8]

haha, well that was a setup anyways...well exploited. But now, now, Ireland are in no place to be talking either !

Joe Schmidt and Jack McGrath, watch us go to number 1.

 

[Big Ewis]

Joe Schmidt and Jack McGrath, watch us go to number 1.

sure, I'll be watching alright, you can count on that much.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

So no upsets this weekend.
Wales and France coming the closest but TBH neither really deserving to win.

An early look at the new rankings then;

[TABLE="class: table_main, width: 1"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: l"]1(1)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

NEW ZEALAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]93.20 (93.05)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]2(2)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SOUTH AFRICA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]88.51 (87.86)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]3(3)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

ENGLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]86.31 no change[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]4(4)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

AUSTRALIA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]84.22 (83.70)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]5(5)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

FRANCE[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]81.44 (81.59)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]6(8)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

IRELAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]80.76 (79.58)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]7(6)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

WALES[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]80.71 (81.36)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]8(7)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SAMOA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]79.24 (80.42)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]9(9)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SCOTLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]77.25 (76.95)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]10(10)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

ARGENTINA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]75.50 no change[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Congratulations to Ireland who are the big winners of the week after climbing two spots!!! and that on top of being voted the most likely to get turned over. SA the 2nd most likely with a decent enough win as well. A good week for the two teams in green then!!

 

[Aspry]

Oh I see us getting out of the top 10 really soon I reckon it will happen after the Italy match...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Oh I see us getting out of the top 10 really soon I reckon it will happen after the Italy match...

I don't think you need to be so glum. Keep in consideration that you have been playing the top 4 teams in the world in NZ, SA, AUS and England. If you look at the rankings (which I personally think is a rather good indicator) there is something of a small gulf between these teams (NZ way out ahead on their own) and the rest of the world. This is your first run of tests under a new coach as well remember. SA stuttered through last year under new coach HM even if we did win more than we lost and look at Aus looking to get back a few yards after struggling under newly appointed McKenzie. You'll get up again I am sure and it might come earlier than you might think; we have softened up Wales for you guys and you are at least on a par with Italy. I expect you to win at least one of those fixtures and would be very surprised if you did fall out of the top 10 entirely. In time the exposure these players are getting can only lead to improvement IMO.

 

[Feicarsinn]

Up to 6th. Get some.

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Up to 6th. Get some.

Beat Australia by any margin next week and you will climb ahead of France to 5th since the French can't climb higher with Tonga rated too low. A loss will probably see you drop below Wales though (assuming they beat Argentina).

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Fair enough it isn't 'precisely accurate' short term but what would be more accurate in an 'official' sense? Some appointed pundit saying what's what? TBF it did correctly predict the results on the weekend.

It is reasonably accurate over the space of two years but then, again yes, it is somewhat arbitrary when ceedings are done for a RWC but the fact remains the ceedings need to be done quite a ways ahead of the tournament so that is a practical matter to consider and I don't even mind if it's not perfectly accurate since for me the drama of the inevitable 'pool of death' adds to the tournament rather than subtratcs from it. So the issue there is not the ranking system as such but the required time frame.

 

[Mrs. Peter Quinn]

I think that the robustness of this system will be tested through these internationals for example with this thing about England targetting second place.
Because what I took from the games involving England and South Africa is that the latter are still far ahead of us in squad strength, tactics and decision making, and also imo ahead of Ireland, Wales and Scotland too (haven't seem France's game yet so won't comment).

If the rankings are to reflect truth, then there should be no way for England to overtake South Africa because we aren't as good. England won't beat New Zealand and I don't expect SA to lose, except maybe against a resurgent France, so I doubt there'll be a rankings change. If the rankings continue to stay the same on the whole, as Stormer pointed out above, then surely that points to some accuracy in the system.

Psychic Duck: I don't see what there is to disagree about regarding Ireland and Wales. The stats show they are within .05 of each other which is infinitesimal as a difference - it doesn't need to be taken as a statement that Ireland are superior to Wales, but more as a comment on how much distance there is between them(nothing). If you think that Wales' ranking is unflattering in any way then I think you need to remember that Wales lost all their games this time last year - and regardless of your feelings about this rankings system, you can't expect it to be able to just ignore an unprecedentedly bad fun of form! Ireland also just put 40 on a side Wales lost to last year, so I think that being on a par with Wales is more than deserved.

Edit: However, I do agree with you about it being far ahead of time to decide the world cup pools.

 

[profitius]

Why are they a good indicator? The top is correct, but the middle just yo-yo's depending on who the most recent opposition was. If Wales and Ireland swapped opposition this week it would probably go right back to how it was before. Which is why I have a problem with it being used for RWC purposes, it's too short term and done far too far out from the tournament.

It can change a lot in the short term but it rewards teams who have been better over the long term. I think the rankings are accurate.