What might happen in the rankings

[TRF_stormer2010]

At this stage, with ceeding settled for RWC 2015, the IRB rankings mean close to nothing but bragging rights. I thought it might be a look to see what might happen while using 3 different bookmaker's handicaps;

1st up, http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union

Aussie beating Italy by 10
England over Argentina by 14
Scotland beating Nippon by 18
SA scraping past Wales with 3
Ireland overcoming Samoa by 9
NZ continuing where they left off with a win over France by 10

With these results:
[TABLE="class: table_main, width: 1"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: l"]1(1)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

NEW ZEALAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]93.20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]2(2)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SOUTH AFRICA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]88.51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]3(3)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

ENGLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]86.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]4(4)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

AUSTRALIA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]84.05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]5(5)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

FRANCE[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]81.44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]6(6)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

WALES[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]80.71[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]7(7)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SAMOA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]79.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]8(8)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

IRELAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]80.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]9(9)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

SCOTLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]77.15[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: l"]10(10)[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]

ARGENTINA[/TD]
[TD="class: l"]75.50[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

The only change here ITO position being Ireland overtaking Samoa.

I'll do the others shortly if there be interest..

 

[Big Ewis]

"if there be interested", why do you speak like a caricature of a pirate these days ?! I think I saw you type "lest" earlier this week ! :lol:
das, get in here !!!!

Anyways: obviously France, I don't see how anybody would vote for anything else, lest they be...errr I mean *unless* they're completely insane.



In the membrane.

So I'll vote for.....I know I said Ireland by 5 earlier today, but if there's one upset that seems believable it's definitely Samoa over Ireland. I mean, "officially" as little as this means they're actually above Ireland on the rankings, so it's not even an upset technically :lol:
Just kidding Ireland.

And I have faith in our trans-Alps brethren (Italy, in case that wasn't clear ) but Australia are just too starving for a victory right now.

Samoa gots me vote, matey. Arrrr.

 

[iINDOMINUSxx]

i dont get why samoa v ireland is the biggest upset samoa is ranked higher & playing very well

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

LOL, Ewis.

I must submit that my English education was less formal and more from reading classic English literature (and French translated to English). Perhaps 'Treasure Island' and the like just stuck.

EDIT:

As for Samoa winning being counting as an upset; the IRB ranking system takes into account home advantage and counts the home team as 3 rating points higher than their actual current rating which sees Ireland considerd above Samoa and thus, should Samoa prevail, it would be considered an upset (not only by the IRB ranking system but also I believe most pundits and indeed the bookies).

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

i dont get why samoa v ireland is the biggest upset samoa is ranked higher & playing very well

Exactly. The poll reads "most likely"- and not "biggest" upset.

 

[Aspry]

I don't see NZ, England, and SA losing. The Scotland vs Japan would be an interesting match for sure, looking forward to it. I wouldn't be surprised if Samoa gets a win tbh, they're playing really well. Australia will be seeking for a win vs Italy, so I don't see them losing but I reckon Italy will get the upset against us later in the tour.

 

[French TommyGun]

Obviously in my heart I want France to cause the biggest upset but other than that I have a feeling that the Welshies will steal a win against the Springboks. They have the right players and Warren Gatland is undoubtably a talented coach!

 

[Big Ewis]

Obviously in my heart I want France to cause the biggest upset  but other than that I have a feeling that the Welshies will steal a win against the Springboks. They have the right players and Warren Gatland is undoubtably a talented coach!

Me too, I have that feeling in my heart and in one of my lungs. I'm going to have some juice now.
Oh and if Samoa wins this, they're Tier 1. No more excuses, nothing more to prove, just...Tier 1.
Not that they aren't already...

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

I see the bookies all have it quite similar being maybe 1 point handicap here or there out but with similar results so I'll go once more with the two "most likely upsets" and have Wales beat SA and Samoa beat Ireland (seemingly voters don't like green) both by a margin of less than 15:

This would have SA still ahead of England but by a mere 0.20 ranking points as England can't gain any points against Argentina at home seeing as they are beyond the 10 ranking point mark limit ahead of Argentina. The interesting thing is if Samoa and Wales make their 'upsets' and France lose they will both move in ahead of France who'll drop from 5th to 7th.

Wales could even move into 4th spot behind NZ, SA and England if they win and Aus lose to Italy. Even Samoa can climb above Aus if Italy win by a margin of 15+. This would of course be considered a great upset seeing as no-one is picking either of Italy or Argentina to win on the weekend.

 

[TRF Mr Fish]

Japan will beat Scotland.

You heard it here first.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

So if Samoa win and Wales lose then Samoa could go 6th, and be within touching distance of 5th?

 

[TRF_stormer2010]

Japan will beat Scotland.

You heard it here first.

If that is the only upset then Scotland will fall 1 and swap with Arg (climbing while losing is alwasy fun) and Japan would climb 2 places.

So if Samoa win and Wales lose then Samoa could go 6th, and be within touching distance of 5th?

Best case scenario for Samoa is they hammer Ireland and win by 15 points or more which puts them at 82.24

If Aus, Wales and France lose then Samoa will pass them all they are so close to Wales and France and Aus could lose many points because Italy are so much lower. That would put Samoa at 4th in the world. They can't pass the top 3; even if England lose heavily to Argentina they'd lose a lot of points but would remain 3rd in this scenario.

EIDT; This is even with a low losing margin for these teams. The bookies have SA and NZ favorites ahead of Wales and France so if the expect happens and Aus also beats Italy while Samoa win even with 1 point over Ireland they'll at least pass Wales and France into 5th spot.

 

[French TommyGun]

Wales could even move into 4th spot behind NZ, SA and England if they win and Aus lose to Italy. Even Samoa can climb above Aus if Italy win by a margin of 15+. This would of course be considered a great upset seeing as no-one is picking either of Italy or Argentina to win on the weekend.

Now that would be an amazing shake up of the world rankings! but I really can't see Italy beating Australia. I would love to, but really don't think so. And France will beat the all blacks so there's no chance of that happening!

 

[TRF_Olyy]

If that is the only upset then Scotland will fall 1 and swap with Arg (climbing while losing is alwasy fun) and Japan would climb 2 places.



Best case scenario for Samoa is they hammer Ireland and win by 15 points or more which puts them at 82.24

If Aus, Wales and France lose then Samoa will pass them all they are so close to Wales and France and Aus could lose many points because Italy are so much lower. That would put Samoa at 4th in the world. They can't pass the top 3; even if England lose heavily to Argentina they'd lose a lot of points but would remain 3rd in this scenario.

EIDT; This is even with a low losing margin for these teams. The bookies have SA and NZ favorites ahead of Wales and France so if the expect happens and Aus also beats Italy while Samoa win even with 1 point over Ireland they'll at least pass Wales and France into 5th spot.

Christ, that'd be something to see!
Lets go Samoa, South Africa and New Zealand!

 

[French TommyGun]

Christ, that'd be something to see!
Lets go Samoa, South Africa and New Zealand!

I think we can all agree that New Zealand have won enough! Even most kiwis would probably agree!
I think they should do more losing! To teach them about the struggle and strife of life!

 

[Aristodemus]

That would be amazing for Samoa to rank #4, I will be cheering them on!

 

[Big Ewis]

Now that would be an amazing shake up of the world rankings!  but I really can't see Italy beating Australia. I would love to, but really don't think so. And France will beat the all blacks so there's no chance of that happening! 

I think we can all agree that New Zealand have won enough! Even most kiwis would probably agree! 
I think they should do more losing! To teach them about the struggle and strife of life!

:lol: OH NO !! Smileys are gone again !! Well I was just saying, nice ones ! : p

Christ, that'd be something to see!
Lets go Samoa, South Africa and New Zealand!

Hey, don't you have a girlfriend who's a parasite...er I mean Parisian ?! Where's teh supports, mayt !

 

[Big Ewis]

Anyone really care about these meaningless rankings outside the RWC qualification thing?

They aren't great indicators of a side's strength. If you swapped Argentina and Samoa's fixtures over this past year around then the ranking too would probably swap round as well.

Oh my Lord, sweet mother of some random Inca hermaphrodite deity, the duck is right !! HOW COULD WE HAVE BEEN SO BLIIIIIIII-HI-HIND ?!!!

 

[dasNdanger]

"if there be interested", why do you speak like a caricature of a pirate these days ?! I think I saw you type "lest" earlier this week ! :lol:
das, get in here !!!!

Anyways: obviously France, I don't see how anybody would vote for anything else, lest they be...errr I mean *unless* they're completely insane.

In the membrane.

So I'll vote for.....I know I said Ireland by 5 earlier today, but if there's one upset that seems believable it's definitely Samoa over Ireland. I mean, "officially" as little as this means they're actually above Ireland on the rankings, so it's not even an upset technically :lol:
Just kidding Ireland.

And I have faith in our trans-Alps brethren (Italy, in case that wasn't clear ) but Australia are just too starving for a victory right now.

Samoa gots me vote, matey. Arrrr.

Well, shiver me timbers and slap my scuttlebutt! Big E be a'summonin' me!

I be a-figurin' best to drop anchor and clubhaul my stern right around and head back to the forums, lest ye all start a'whinin' about votin' me in as best incomer this year.

Arrrr!
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

This is the Pyrates Arrrrr Us forum, right?


das

 

[Big Ewis]

^ wow, that was just way too advanced in the department of cliché American-style pirate talk !...you're at least a good class or 2 ahead of me, but beware, stormer is a fierce enemy, and a worthy foe !