Wales v Australia

[dullonien]

Well I re-watched the 2008 Wales v Aus game earlier and we had a very similar centre partnership that day with Roberts & Shanklin to begin with, then Bishop came on for Roberts after he fractured his skull. It worked then, and we managed to keep the Aus backline relitively quiet. However I also noticed now much better out backrow were playing that day than it has done recently. Ryan Jones was everywhere and made yards every time he touched the ball. Powell was a bit hit and miss, but made some stonking runs. Martyn Williams popped up everywhere too. However there was no Pockok to play against, that certainly helped!

Lee Byrne was also immense that day, as was Shane popping up everywhere.

 

[david0404]

its a difficult one. gatland has been heaping on the fitness training ahead of the world cup so my initial thought is that Wales may be able to keep up the push for the last 10 minutes of the game. however Australia have just come off the back of a tri-nations and a bledisloe cup match so have more match practice as a unit. i think pocock and the back three have to do their utmost to keep him out of the match. hoping it will be a great match full of running rugby with Wales proving victorious!!

 

[Darwin]

While I have not doubt that Shanklin and Bishop are really good defenders, I wouldn't be surprised to see Australia make a few breaks through the midfield. If the Aussies ran straight at the opposition midfield (like 90% of teams seem to) Bishop and Shanklin would tackle them 10/10, but these Aussies have an annoying habit of running at gaps. I wonder whether the Shanklin and Bishop have the speed to put themselves into the right positions to tackle Aussies elusive midfield players, or the likes of O'Conner, Mitchell or Beale hitting gaps in the midfield. The AB's really struggled defensively at times during the tri-nations in the midfield - I remember Conrad Smith (who I regard as a world class defensive player) being done more than once on the outside by Kurtley Beale who was running in the midfield.

Looking at the teams, I'd expect Wales may have a slight edge up front, but not by much. The loose-forward battle will be interesting - I haven't seem much of Warburton or Lydiate so I will be watching them carefully. I'm expecting Pocock to again dominate at the tackle/ruck - I wonder whether we will see Martyn Williams come on early in the second half to replace Lydiate so Wales have two opensides on the field (to be fair I have no idea how good Lydiate is at the tackle/ruck, so I might be completely wrong about this ).

As I've already mentioned I'd expect Wales may have trouble containing Australia in the backs, though likewise I'd expect Wales could cause some damage with their backline. Wales will want to try to target Quade Cooper defensively - either with one of their loose-forwards, or with one of their big centres. If Wales do kick the ball they will have to make sure they kick it out, as the Wallabies have proved they are very dangerous on the counter-attack.

Overall I'm expecting a pretty open game (assuming the conditions are good), with Australia winning by 10-15, as they will have benefited from playing a game together as a team last week, while Wales are coming in cold.

 

[dullonien]

Shanklin and Bishop aren't rapid, but neither are what I call slow. Shanklin has probably lost a yard of pace over the past few years, but he did start out on the wing for Wales, so he's not slow. But I can certainly still see a couple clean breaks through the midfield as the Aus backline is extremely good and extremely quick as you say darwin. Bishop is an exceptional defender though, one of the best in the Welsh game. I rarely see him miss a tackle so it will be an interesting matchup really. Bit of a pity Roberts isn't fit, as I'm sure he'd be licking his lips at the prospect of running at Cooper and Giteau. Bishop and Shanks are powerful runners too mind.

Lydiate is a grafter. He'll work his socks off hitting rucks, carrying ball and tackling. He may not gain any direct turnovers like Pocock, but he may get to the ruck before or at the same time as Pocock and clear out. We'll see as international level is certainly a cut above Magners. Warburton is another who's rapid for a forward, so he can also hopefully get to plenty of rucks, he's also strong over the ball so will hopefully offer decent competition to Pocock. Still expect Pocock to have a good prominent game, he's too god a player not to, no matter what Wales do. For that reason we can't get hung up about one player, we've also got to play our own game.

 

[Darwin]

Shanklin and Bishop aren't rapid, but neither are what I call slow. Shanklin has probably lost a yard of pace over the past few years, but he did start out on the wing for Wales, so he's not slow. But I can certainly still see a couple clean breaks through the midfield as the Aus backline is extremely good and extremely quick as you say darwin. Bishop is an exceptional defender though, one of the best in the Welsh game. I rarely see him miss a tackle so it will be an interesting matchup really. Bit of a pity Roberts isn't fit, as I'm sure he'd be licking his lips at the prospect of running at Cooper and Giteau. Bishop and Shanks are powerful runners too mind.

Lydiate is a grafter. He'll work his socks off hitting rucks, carrying ball and tackling. He may not gain any direct turnovers like Pocock, but he may get to the ruck before or at the same time as Pocock and clear out. We'll see as international level is certainly a cut above Magners. Warburton is another who's rapid for a forward, so he can also hopefully get to plenty of rucks, he's also strong over the ball so will hopefully offer decent competition to Pocock. Still expect Pocock to have a good prominent game, he's too god a player not to, no matter what Wales do. For that reason we can't get hung up about one player, we've also got to play our own game.

Oops... I was actually thinking of Bishop, but keep writing Davies for some reason! I was really impressive with Bishop against the AB's earlier in the year, he certainly looked very good defensively.

I agree that Wales shouldn't get too hung up on one player - I think the best way to neutralize Pocock is simply to make sure there is plenty of support for the ball carrier (which all teams should strive for anyway). Sure Pocock will get one or two turnovers during the game, but he does play right on the edge of the rules (as all good 7's should), so he will also likely concede a penalty or two if Wales do arrive quickly at the tackle.

If Lydiate can manage to bring the game you describe into international rugby he will be invaluable to Wales - I've always found the most successful teams have a no-nonsense, hard working player in their loose-trio (usually at 6).

 

[Tomsey]

I think the outcome is primarily going to revolve around possession, meaning what happens in the forwards. If the Wallabies can achieve parity with the Welsh in the forwards, in terms of the set piece and ruck then I would expect the Wallabies backs to really hurt the Welsh. The ruck shouldn't be to much of a problem as our backrow is very well balanced and in form. Pocock is the inform 7 in the world, Elsom is Elsom and Ben McCalman has been a great addition to the Wallabies forwards recently, providing them with a tough everywhere man that can tackle and hit rucks, similar to a Lydiate role. The set piece may be an issue. Our scrum should hold together all right. I keep hearing about Gatland studying the loss to England and trying to replicate that but the whole front row had only 2 international caps that day and as none of those players are in the squad now that dominance will not be possible. We did give away a few scrum penalties against the All Blacks last weekend but that was the refs fault not the front rows... The lineout is another issue. It went to **** against the All Blacks and will need to be much better this weekend considering the Welsh are likely to kick more than the Kiwi's. I'm not saying the Welsh backs are a poor defensive unit but the Wallabies backs are in awesome attacking form at the moment so defending against them is tough at the best of times and if the Welsh pack is aren't going forwards then it would be too big an ask to keep them out.

 

[Shaggy]

I think the outcome is primarily going to revolve around possession, meaning what happens in the forwards. If the Wallabies can achieve parity with the Welsh in the forwards, in terms of the set piece and ruck then I would expect the Wallabies backs to really hurt the Welsh. The ruck shouldn't be to much of a problem as our backrow is very well balanced and in form. Pocock is the inform 7 in the world, Elsom is Elsom and Ben McCalman has been a great addition to the Wallabies forwards recently, providing them with a tough everywhere man that can tackle and hit rucks, similar to a Lydiate role. The set piece may be an issue. Our scrum should hold together all right. I keep hearing about Gatland studying the loss to England and trying to replicate that but the whole front row had only 2 international caps that day and as none of those players are in the squad now that dominance will not be possible. We did give away a few scrum penalties against the All Blacks last weekend but that was the refs fault not the front rows... The lineout is another issue. It went to **** against the All Blacks and will need to be much better this weekend considering the Welsh are likely to kick more than the Kiwi's. I'm not saying the Welsh backs are a poor defensive unit but the Wallabies backs are in awesome attacking form at the moment so defending against them is tough at the best of times and if the Welsh pack is aren't going forwards then it would be too big an ask to keep them out.

I agree that the set pieces are the area that needs improvement ... better hope that this weeks ref doesn't make the same mistakes huh

Seriously though, I think that the Welsh will run at Cooper all day, and try and exploit his defensive weaknesses, rather than kick

 

[Thingimubob]

really looking forward to seeing Harries though! I remember he was everywhere when he came on against the All Blacks in the summer, hopefully he'll have a cracking game tomorrow too.

 

[DuncTheDoodle]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/welsh/9161412.stm

Harries intends to do the same as he did against New Zealand in the summer, in which he just wanted to score a try having come on with 20 to go.

He's a young man, who really only broke into the Dragons team in April, let alone Wales, but it's exactly the same thing as Austrailia do- Pick the youngsters and while they're still unknown they show people up and end up being world class. Same with Warburton and Lydiate. It is a bit worrying that none of this backrow have ever played together, though. (Warburton has played with JT while he was at 6 once, plus perhaps two or three off the bench, but that's it.)

 

[cyRil]

Bit of bigging up for Will Harries here... =/
Not too sure about that myself.

PS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/welsh/9162485.stm
Funny

 

[gingergenius]

of all the games this weekend, i'm most certain about this one. There is no way, shape or form that I can see Wales winning it, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get ripped apart. Their pack looks very weak and no one comes out on top against this Australia backline.

Still, this is Wales we're talking about, they do have Shane Williams and James Hook in there so theoretically anything can happen.

Australia by >15

 

[cyRil]

of all the games this weekend, i'm most certain about this one. There is no way, shape or form that I can see Wales winning it, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get ripped apart. Their pack looks very weak and no one comes out on top against this Australia backline.

Still, this is Wales we're talking about, they do have Shane Williams and James Hook in there so theoretically anything can happen.

Australia by >15

I agree, I think we could easily get destroyed by like 30 points, but then again who knows with us?
I think it's unfair to call our pack 'weak'. Our tight five look great and we could potentially smash them up at scrum time. However we could also get wiped out in the back-row.
I think a scoreline of Wales 18-34 Australia is pretty realistic.

 

[gingergenius]

yep, i think i was being a bit harsh, but I don't fancy the back row at all.

 

[TVH11]

That would have been Lee Halfpenny!

Although back in the "good old days" Shane did kick a little bit for Neath, don't think it lasted long tho
As usual when Wales come up against anyone above us in the rankings, My heart says Wales but my head says the opponent, and yet again i'm faced with the same answers. Wales i guess will try and play "boring" rugby and stay tight (which we aint really the best at), which if done correctly i guess will starve the Aussies of possession, but i guess fitness will be the key. I can see us competing for 60 mins, but after that i really don't know how we'll fare... i'm gonna be blotto anyways, so the big screen will just look like a collage of colours by the time the game ends
Can't wait

 

[Draggs]

Gatland hasn't ruled out shifting Hook to centre through the match, which would be interesting depending on how Wales are playing.
Aussie have the better back row, as of right now, but lets give Dan, Sam and JT a go.
I think Wales can rule in the scrums, with the Lions front row, but lineouts are another story.

Looking forward to seeing Will have a proper crack, he was pretty solid against NZ this summer.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

DOes Shanklin play the full 80 when he plays for Blues?
Maybe he'll come off after 60ish, bring on Czekaj and shift Hook to 13

 

[TrueSlawter]

Imo Wales will win the battle in the scrum but the AUS backrow is more experianced than the starting wales backrow will be, as for backs anything can happen.. Both sides have great backs just as mentioned creativity within the centres might be lacking without hook, as for shanklin im not sure how long hes played for recently but i guess it'll all depend on what happens in the game. As for playing "boring" tight rugby it can be insanly boring at times but playing tight means less mistakes thus less possesion lost.. but you never know im hoping both sides go out and attack and we see the wales who won the grandslam's again.

 

[TRF_Cymro]

Thinking about this again, The Oz front five will be able to hold their own against the Welsh front five, lineouts however will be a sorry tale for Wales, and I fear the mighty Pocock will be all over our backrow like a rash. Backline can only defend for so much, but you never know on the day. Heart says Wales but the head clearly states Oz by 10. Ill be pleased if we are within 10 points tomorrow.

 

[cyRil]

Anmeeanol.

 

[Wally]

Is Czekaj Welsh born? Also way to potentially ruin the spectacle by leaving the roof open.