Wales going into the 6 Nations

[valley commando]

So Norths injured bring on Keelan Giles, hopefully Scott Williams is fit otherwise we might have to play Tipuric in the center, mind you he would be good wherever he played he had 15 minutes in the center against Lyon, scored a try any fly half would be proud of against Newcastle and is unquestionably the best NH 7.

 

[AzaMatt]

So Norths injured bring on Keelan Giles, hopefully Scott Williams is fit otherwise we might have to play Tipuric in the center, mind you he would be good wherever he played he had 15 minutes in the center against Lyon, scored a try any fly half would be proud of against Newcastle and is unquestionably the best NH 7.

i dont think Giles will play any minutes in the AI's unfortunately. along with keddie etc. they are just there to get a feel of the wales setup. he might get a bench or start against japan but that will be largely fringe players. if scott williams is ruled out then its likely it will be tyler morgan covering the centres. still no idea why ben john hasnt been called up. hes the form centre in wales at the moment

 

[ALJ]

Rumors are that Moriarty looks set to move to the Scarlets next season for that reason.

I know he's been under pressure to move to Wales so wouldn't be surprised.

Would be terrible for Gloucester though, with Laidlaw already going that's be two of our best players out the door in one go.

 

[LeinsterMan (NotTigsMan)]

Is he out of contract end of this season?

 

[AzaMatt]

Is he out of contract end of this season?

apparently so, signed a 3 year deal in 2014 i think. not heard any news of him signing a new one since. i hope he does come to wales as we really do need a back up to falatau, who up until now has been made of steel. he hasnt missed a wales match due to injury since he had his first cap!

 

[valley commando]

Keelan Giles has gone in twice so far today, making 7 in his last 3 games, why the f*** is he playing for the Ospreys and not training ready for his debut next Saturday, answer, Howler the non attack attack coach is picking the side

 

[AzaMatt]

Keelan Giles has gone in twice so far today, making 7 in his last 3 games, why the f*** is he playing for the Ospreys and not training ready for his debut next Saturday, answer, Howler the non attack attack coach is picking the side

8 tries in 4 games now! he is on fire, he was excellent in all aspects of the game, but the opposition hasnt been exactly amazing. id give him a start against japan though for sure, with the mind to bringing him into the squad for the six nations if he continues his form. i just hope hes not made of glass like walker.

 

[dullonien]

He's a serious talent alright.

I'm kinda split about whether he should be fast tracked into the Wales team. I'd love to see him, but accept that for his personal development it may be better for him to play some more games against better opposition for the ospreys first, and re-visit things come 6 nations time. The last thing we'd want to happen is for Giles to be thrown in against the Aussies, get shown up and lose confidence in his abilities.

It's not as if we're short of wingers atm, especially if Liam Williams is fit. Tom James and Eli Walker missed out on the squad, and both are playing well atm.

North managed to transition to international rugby after just a hand-full of regional appearances, but his size made it less of a risk.

 

[ALJ]

apparently so, signed a 3 year deal in 2014 i think. not heard any news of him signing a new one since. i hope he does come to wales as we really do need a back up to falatau, who up until now has been made of steel. he hasnt missed a wales match due to injury since he had his first cap!

Seems unclear tbh - He either signed for 3 or 4 years.

But he's being very coy on his future, which could just mean negotiation time or he's on his way.

Gloucester is alive with rumour right now.
Depending on who you speak to a combination of May, Kvesic, Moriarty, Morgan, Laidlow, Hook, Hibbard and Twelvetrees are all on their way at the end of the season.

 

[dullonien]

Warburton out of the Wallabies match, and could be longer with Shaun Edwards stating that he'll be heading back to the Blues to get game time.

So Tips will be 7, who'll be at 6 and 7? I think it'll be 6. Lydiate, 7. Tips, 8. Moriarty.

Personally wouldn't have Lydiate, but think it's the way Howley will go.

 

[AzaMatt]

So Tips will be 7, who'll be at 6 and 7? I think it'll be 6. Lydiate, 7. Tips, 8. Moriarty.

Personally wouldn't have Lydiate, but think it's the way Howley will go.

yeah i agree, i think we'll see that combination. nice balance though

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

yeah i agree, i think we'll see that combination. nice balance though

Seems like it's lacking a carrier to me. Moriarty is very powerful, but I don't think he has the size to play 8 at international level. He could be world class at 6 though. That said, it is the back row I'd go for.

 

[AzaMatt]

Seems like it's lacking a carrier to me. Moriarty is very powerful, but I don't think he has the size to play 8 at international level. He could be world class at 6 though. That said, it is the back row I'd go for.

i think he came on at 8 against italy (i know not exactly the best opposition) and played really well there. little lightweight for an 8 i guess but he sure does make it count!

 

[Pieter Steph du Teague]

i think he came on at 8 against italy (i know not exactly the best opposition) and played really well there. little lightweight for an 8 i guess but he sure does make it count!

I have no doubt that he is fully capable at 8, but as you say he is light weight there. I'm not sure he really provides the out and out carrier role that many teams want their 8 to provide. That said, Faletau was never an out and out carrier either, and he is maybe the 2nd best 8 on the planet.

 

[AzaMatt]

I have no doubt that he is fully capable at 8, but as you say he is light weight there. I'm not sure he really provides the out and out carrier role that many teams want their 8 to provide. That said, Faletau was never an out and out carrier either, and he is maybe the 2nd best 8 on the planet.

yea hes phenominal. although we use him more for defensive carries/returning kick offs more often than not. doesnt get as many attacking carries as vunipola etc. hes invaulable in scrums in our 22 though, making yards nobody should be entitled to! haha.

 

[dullonien]

Thought we may as well bring this thread back instead of clutter the Wales v SA match-day thread.

What did we learn from the AI's? What do we need to develop/change for the 6 nations? Valley, I know you'll call for Howley's head, but realistically that's never going to happen while Gats is away on Lions duty! We're more than likely stuck with this coaching regime until after the world cup. Hopefully what they can do is wort out selection, because it's been shocking for far too long....

Personnel wise, I think the entire squad needs a bit of a shake-up. There's too many players lacking the basic skill-set for their position at international level, and the more the game evolves, the further they are being left behind. Lydiate, Cuthbert, Roberts and Jon Davies all struggle to execute under pressure, and all have been around long enough to lead me to believe that they are incapable of drastic change. If I'm brutally honest, North and Scott Williams are just as bad (Scott Williams very hit and miss). Maybe it's time we're a bit more ruthless with our selection policy, cutting those who's skills consistently let them down in match situations.

Following that logic, these are the players I'd look to take forward:

LOOSEHEAD PROP

Nicky Smith, Gethin Jenkins, Rob Evans.

Jenkins is coming to the end of his illustrious career, and whilst we may see another season out of him if he continues his current form, I'd have Nicky Smith as my starter in the 6 nations. Jenkins can continue off the bench while he continues to perform, with Evans taking his place eventually. The dynamic carrying of Smith is something we need more of in our pack to help us generate some momentum in our game. Rob Evans is another strong carrier in the tight, and would be a useful addition later in games.

TIGHTHEAD PROP

Samson Lee, Tomas Francis, Dillon Lewis.For the time being, there's precious little alternatives to Samson Lee and Tomas Francis. Both struggle to influence a game outside of the scrum as neither are all that mobile. Hopefully we'll see more of Dillon Lewis at the Blues this season, because he seemed to fit the bill nicely, a strong scrummager, but dynamic in the loose. Still a problem position for us that we need to address moving forward.

HOOKER

Ken Owens, Scott Baldwin, Ryan Elias.

I've been of the opinion for a while now that we can do better at hooker than Owens or Baldwin. On their day, both are fine hookers, but both can be inconsistent. I see similar flaws in Dacey, Parry and Dee, none of them properly looking like the real deal (have done in patches, rarely more). I really like the look of Ryan Ellias at the Scarlets though. He impressed at U20 level, and given a chance this season, he's taken it with both hands. His physicality, athleticism and good basics make in a well rounded hooker with a big future. Of course, we'll need to wait and see if he too can sustain this form.

SECOND ROW

Alun-Wyn Jones....

For a while there, I was really happy with our stock at lock, but it's becoming more and more obvious to me that other than AWJ, the rest aren't cutting it in the high tempo world of international rugby. Jake Ball and Bradley Davies look worryingly pedestrian when you compare them to the likes of Itoje, Whilelock, Romano, Launchberry, Johnny Gray etc. Charteris has his positives, but they're mostly defensive, and he's not getting any younger. Could the likes of Thorntun, Lloyd Ashley and Adam Beard be the answer? Not sure Cory Hill is! I'm not expecting us to uncover a player like Itoje (he's a true one-off), but we need a second row to partner AWJ who's more than a lumbering 'enforcer' type. Feels like second row play has taken a massive leap forward in the last few years, and we're struggling to do the same. Even AWJ has dropped below the very best imo, and that's despite him being able to adjust his game quite well, running with the ball, offloading etc. It's more a reflection on how exceptional some of the other second rows are! I'm a little stuck here really. If push comes to shove, I'd retain Jake Ball, drop Bradley (Jake's more mobile), and properly test Thorntun.

BACK ROW

Faletau, Tipuric, Moriarty, King, Ellis Jenkins, Dan Baker, James Davies.

Harsh to leave out Warburton altogether, but imo he needs time out from international rugby, back at the Blues to see if he can finally put his injury troubles behind him, and fully rediscover his full form. It feels like he's been playing at about 60% for years, it's almost difficult to remember just how good he was/is when fully fit, and in top form. In Tipuric, James Davies & Ellis Jenkins there's a trio of very good opensides with varying styles. Faletau is one of our very few world class players, but I'd like to see Baker developed into a viable alternative, meaning Moriarty can remain at blindside, where he's best imo. King is the versatile all-rounder. There's a number of other options at the regions with the likes of Aaron Shingler, Josh Turnbul & Josh Navidi versatile players, and youngsters like Olly Griffiths & Will Boyd starting to emerge.

I'll continue with the backs in the next post.

 

[dullonien]

SCRUM HALF

Rhys Webb, Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams

When fit, Webb is a great scrum half, hopefully he can stay fit for longer than a few months when he returns. Gareth Davies is a good understudy, but I'm still not wholly convinced that his decision making is as good as it should be. Williams has shown a lot of promise for the Blues, and with Lloyd Williams serving up such a shocker v Japan and really struggling to develop his game despite being involved with Wales for years, maybe it's time to try someone else. Jonathan Evans has made a good return to Welsh rugby with the Scarlets, whilst Aled Davies' basics are solid, even if he lacks a little cutting edge around the fringes.

OUTSIDE HALF

Sam Davies, Rhys Patchell, Dan Biggar

Sam Davies should be first choice, I'm convinced by that. He's still got things to work on, as evidenced by his charge down last night for the Ospreys, but he's such a rounded player. His decision making is spot on, taking the ball to the line and picking the right player with accurate flat passing. His kicking, both from hand and from the tee is spot-on as well. Patchell is another who's really started to prove himself for the Scarlets this season. His running game is a real strength of his, and he'd make a great option on the bench capable of covering 10, 15 and with a bit of testing centre as well. For now, Biggar is worth keeping around, but I'd look to replace him in the squad when an option emerges. Anscombe needs to fully prove himself for the Blues. He's got the talent to be a fine outside half, but he's not ready for international rugby quite yet.

CENTER

Owen Williams, Scott Williams, Cory Allen, Ashley Beck

This is one area I think needs shaking-up. As mentioned previously, the basic skillsets of some of the players we've got in the center aren't up to scratch. There should be a minimum requirement of being bale to pass off both hands under pressure, and I'm not confident that Roberts, Davies or Scott Williams are always capable of that. I'm confident Owen Williams is though, whilst he has the size to handle himself in the center. He'd take the pressure off who's 10, offering another genuine kicking option, another play-maker if the 10 isn't available, or the option to split our attack left and right. Another player who'd provide more balance at 12 would be Ashley Beck. Scott Williams may also prove more effective in the outside center berth with his pace to make an outside break, and less pressure on his distribution. Cory Allen has been unfortunate with injuries, but he could be a potent outside center if he can get a run of injury free rugby. Other options are of course Jon Davies, who could prove more effective with a playmaker inside him. Tyler Morgan has plenty of promise, but needs to prove it at regional level first. Owen Watkin looked class last season as well. There's also the option of properly switching North to outside center, which could prove a lethal combination with a distributing inside center. It'd also ensure he's always involved in the game, and he may not get caught out in defense like he does on the wing (usually get's caught too tight, rather than missing one on one tackles).

BACK THREE

Liam Williams, Keelan Giles, Leigh Halfpenny, George North,

Whilst North has been very inconsistent of late, I'd persevere with him, because when he's playing well, he's world class. Giles should have been given a chance in the Autumn, everyone knows that, hopefully he's given a chance in the 6 nations. Liam Williams should be retained at fullback, whilst Halfpenny still has plenty of offer imo. There's plenty of other options, such as Tom James, Dafydd Howells, Ashton Hewitt, Steff Evans, Eli Walker, Matthew Morgan, Dan Fish, Dan Evans etc, but I'm not fully convinced with any of them yet. Plenty could easily force their way into contention, but need to show consistency or keep fit.

So finally my ideal long-term 23 would be the following:

01 Nicky Smith
02 Ryan Elias
03 Dillon Lewis
04 Alun-Wyn Jones
05 Rory Thorntun
06 Ross Moriarty
07 Justin Tipuric
08 Taulupe Faletau

09 Rhys Webb
10 Sam Davies
11 Keelan Giles
12 Owen Williams
13 Scott Williams
14 George North
15 Liam Williams

16 Ken Owens
17 Rob Evans
18 Samson Lee
19 Lloyd Ashley
20 James Davies
21 Gareth Davies
22 Rhys Patchell
23 Leigh Halfpenny

I think that has a nice balance to it. Strong, skillful forwards, players in the backline with vision, skill and pace.

 

[welshglory]

Agree with everything dullonien. The main thing for me is the need to find depth in the forwards, Ireland has sky rocketed past us in that regard I remember when we were at a similar level not so long ago. I would even rate Scotland's pack depth higher! not their first choice 8 but depth. We need to find back up's for 6/8 and lock especially. Front row is difficult for depth but i feel that with our move more towards a more expansive skillfull game i'd like our front row forwards to improve work rate wise and skill. Look at how the Aussie front rowers play out of the scrum as a good example.

In the backrow i would probably keep Lydiate in ahead of King and i'm not sold on Baker even at elite regional level. Perhaps we should try fielding dual opensides more often and work on our wide attacking game so we aren't targeted physically at the breakdown? I don't really know which way to go but 6/8 are always problem positions imo.

Like you i'm pretty worried about lock, just a couple seasons ago or so things looked pretty good there but the other nations all have superior options now. I don't rate Ball, Charteris has never been particularly good apart from slow front lineout ball and non dominant tackles albeit numerous, i like Davies but he needs to get a bit fitter to fulfil his potential. Llyod Ashley, Cory Hill and other guys like that in the regions all lack size for me and would be nothing more than stop gap choices. I hope that Thornton and Beard can come good, they've shown nothing to suggest so far that they will though. I'd like to see Ian Evans give Wales a crack again, but i have a feeling he's not up to it physically anymore.

The midfield definitely needs to be changed up i agree. Earlier this year i was thinking to myself about converting the likes of Patchell, Shingler, Owen Williams into 12's, seems like we think alike. Beck has been one of my favourite players since he burst onto the scene, fingers crossed he can stay healthy because he can fulfil the role we need for a 12. Balance needs to be found, Warrenball with two centres running straight crashball lines and wingers running support angles doesn't work anymore at international level. Like a lot of young options in Wales Watking and Morgan need to prove themselves but do seem to have potential. Perhaps Hooky can swallow his pride and play 12/13? He looked great there in 2010.

Overall i think we need to play smarter and make better decisions and be clinical with our opportunities. There are so many instances when the players take a conservative option like use forwards pods close to the try line when we have a 4 on 2 overlap out wide, kicking the ball away when we have a counter attack option, taking contact when we have a turnover attack opportunity. That's a mix of coaching/management and decision making from individuals and leaders. We don't have the size to physically dominate our opposition consistently like a South Africa, we don't have the tactical or technical nous in tight forward play to grind out teams like an England or Ireland, i think we have the attacking players to play a more adventurous game like Australia and Argentina though. Gatland has chosen a system which has been quite effective and which suited his pool of players in terms of lack of options in 2008 - 2012. However, the problem is the game has moved on, we have now been found out (since 2013 to be honest), we don't have the depth to replace said physical player with another physical player, we don't have the attacking capability to trouble most elite teams relying on our defence and crash ball on attack. We do have better options now though and we need to evolve.

 

[dullonien]

Strongly disagree re Lydiate Welshglory, one of a few players who've been living on previous glory for far too long. He's shown little to suggest he's even capable of adjusting his game to suit the high tempo rugby played by the best teams today. He's struggling at the Ospreys, with the likes of King, Underhill & Cracknell looking more comfortable with the pace the Ospreys are trying to play at.

Whilst Baker has been a little up and down with his form, when he's playing well, like he is now, he looks a pretty decent player. Maybe he would struggle internationally, but until he's tested we won't know. He's further along the development path than Harrison Keddie, and there isn't any real options at 8 afterwards, so we need to test someone else. It's great to finally have a backup to Faletau in Moriarty, but I see Moriarty as our first choice blindside, so if Faletau were unavailable, we'd have to completely re-shuffle our backrow instead of slotting someone straight in at 8.

Mostly agree with your assessment at lock. I too am worried that Ashley and Hill are a little small for international level. Disagree re Thorntun though, he's racking up a lot of regional minutes, and is looking better and better all the time. Very much in the AWJ mold, great engine and shows some touches of skill. Beard hasn't has too many opportunities though. I do like Ian Evans, but he shot himself in the foot with his move to Bristol when his Toulon deal fell through. Feel it's a little late to go back to him, given that he's now 32.

Too late for Hook as well. Undecided if he was a victim of Gatlands' game plan, or master of his own downfall by insisting he was a 10, even though he looked good at center, and he struggled to have any impact when given the chance over the last few years. Either way, unless he starts tearing it up for the Ospreys next season, we need to look at some of the younger options.

Fully agree with your last paragraph. It feels like the regions are embracing a new approach, especially the Ospreys, and that should help Wales do the same, as Welsh players get more comfortable and their skills improve. Howley/Gatland need to select the correct players as well though!

 

[BPM]

SCRUM HALF

Rhys Webb, Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams

When fit, Webb is a great scrum half, hopefully he can stay fit for longer than a few months when he returns. Gareth Davies is a good understudy, but I'm still not wholly convinced that his decision making is as good as it should be. Williams has shown a lot of promise for the Blues, and with Lloyd Williams serving up such a shocker v Japan and really struggling to develop his game despite being involved with Wales for years, maybe it's time to try someone else. Jonathan Evans has made a good return to Welsh rugby with the Scarlets, whilst Aled Davies' basics are solid, even if he lacks a little cutting edge around the fringes.

OUTSIDE HALF

Sam Davies, Rhys Patchell, Dan Biggar

Sam Davies should be first choice, I'm convinced by that. He's still got things to work on, as evidenced by his charge down last night for the Ospreys, but he's such a rounded player. His decision making is spot on, taking the ball to the line and picking the right player with accurate flat passing. His kicking, both from hand and from the tee is spot-on as well. Patchell is another who's really started to prove himself for the Scarlets this season. His running game is a real strength of his, and he'd make a great option on the bench capable of covering 10, 15 and with a bit of testing centre as well. For now, Biggar is worth keeping around, but I'd look to replace him in the squad when an option emerges. Anscombe needs to fully prove himself for the Blues. He's got the talent to be a fine outside half, but he's not ready for international rugby quite yet.

CENTER

Owen Williams, Scott Williams, Cory Allen, Ashley Beck

This is one area I think needs shaking-up. As mentioned previously, the basic skillsets of some of the players we've got in the center aren't up to scratch. There should be a minimum requirement of being bale to pass off both hands under pressure, and I'm not confident that Roberts, Davies or Scott Williams are always capable of that. I'm confident Owen Williams is though, whilst he has the size to handle himself in the center. He'd take the pressure off who's 10, offering another genuine kicking option, another play-maker if the 10 isn't available, or the option to split our attack left and right. Another player who'd provide more balance at 12 would be Ashley Beck. Scott Williams may also prove more effective in the outside center berth with his pace to make an outside break, and less pressure on his distribution. Cory Allen has been unfortunate with injuries, but he could be a potent outside center if he can get a run of injury free rugby. Other options are of course Jon Davies, who could prove more effective with a playmaker inside him. Tyler Morgan has plenty of promise, but needs to prove it at regional level first. Owen Watkin looked class last season as well. There's also the option of properly switching North to outside center, which could prove a lethal combination with a distributing inside center. It'd also ensure he's always involved in the game, and he may not get caught out in defense like he does on the wing (usually get's caught too tight, rather than missing one on one tackles).

BACK THREE

Liam Williams, Keelan Giles, Leigh Halfpenny, George North,

Whilst North has been very inconsistent of late, I'd persevere with him, because when he's playing well, he's world class. Giles should have been given a chance in the Autumn, everyone knows that, hopefully he's given a chance in the 6 nations. Liam Williams should be retained at fullback, whilst Halfpenny still has plenty of offer imo. There's plenty of other options, such as Tom James, Dafydd Howells, Ashton Hewitt, Steff Evans, Eli Walker, Matthew Morgan, Dan Fish, Dan Evans etc, but I'm not fully convinced with any of them yet. Plenty could easily force their way into contention, but need to show consistency or keep fit.

So finally my ideal long-term 23 would be the following:

01 Nicky Smith
02 Ryan Elias
03 Dillon Lewis
04 Alun-Wyn Jones
05 Rory Thorntun
06 Ross Moriarty
07 Justin Tipuric
08 Taulupe Faletau

09 Rhys Webb
10 Sam Davies
11 Keelan Giles
12 Owen Williams
13 Scott Williams
14 George North
15 Liam Williams

16 Ken Owens
17 Rob Evans
18 Samson Lee
19 Lloyd Ashley
20 James Davies
21 Gareth Davies
22 Rhys Patchell
23 Leigh Halfpenny

I think that has a nice balance to it. Strong, skillful forwards, players in the backline with vision, skill and pace.

Hallam Amos has played well enough to at least deserve a mention ... I know he's injured right now, but if I were picking Welsh wings moving forward, he'd at least be in the conversation.