Top 15 world rankings predictions for 10 years time?

[mdaclarke]

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. England
4. Wales
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. USA
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Japan
14. Canada
15. Brazil

Am confident about my top 3. 4 to 9 is almost a lottery pick.

Agree with the comment about South Africa. They are the one team that can go man to man with the All Blacks and the one team that the All Blacks seem to fear when they (the Boks) are on fire.

Reviewed this after the world cup.

New Predictions

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. France
4. England
5. Wales
6. Ireland
7. Australia
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. Japan
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Samoa
14. USA
15. Canada
16 . Tonga
17. Russia
18. Namibia
19. Georgia
20. Uruguay

Toyed with putting South Africa at Number 1 and England at Number 3 (swapped with New Zealand and France)
Also not sure if I am being too harsh on Australia

1. New Zealand will always be 1 or 2
2. If it wasn't for the politics I would have put South Africa at 1 as in my opinion they have the biggest best player/schooling/coaching base. However the politics will always hold them back slightly, However their resources are just too great to be anything but top 3.
3. France I think are on the up. They have the player base, Rugby is popular in the South and they have the World Cup to host.
4. England will always be top 4 due to player base.
5. Wales and Ireland are a toss up, but as I'm welsh I out them above Ireland
6. Ireland and Wales are a toss up, but as I'm welsh I out them below Wales
7. Australian Rugby has the challenges of other codes that the other nations don't have. I slightly fear for Australian rugby
8. Argentina could improve more but the Super Rugby Issues don;t help, they could have done with a 2nd Super Rugby Team.
9. Scotland will never become a tier 2 team but they will always be one of the weaker tier 1 teams. Don't think picking South African cast-offs is a long term strategy.
10. Japan I think have had their high water mark.
11. Fiji will be the best of the Polynesian teams
12. Italy are better than their ranking suggests but as a Tier 1 team they only play other Tier 1 teams so they have no easy games to push up their rankings.
13. Samoa will still be a good team but won;'t progress as their player base is too small and the best are picked by New Zealand/club interference
14. USA have big player resources and MLR may help them but I don;t see rugby ever becoming a major sport there. They have the Australian problem on steroids (competition from other codes)
15. Canada are in the doldrums but I have a feeling they will recover slightly especially if MLR expands
16. Tonga have the same issues as Samoa but I don;t think they have the same player base.
17. Russia Similar to USA but not as good
18. Namibia I think they will be helped by South Africa next to them
19. Georgia I see them a bit like Romania in the past, I think they have had their highpoint
20. Uruguay I think they will be helped by Argentina next to them

Will be interesting to see how wrong I am!

I think Rugby should concentrate on keeping the Tier 1 and 2 teams strong rather than trying to grow the sport in other places. The loss of Australia will cause more damage than the gain of Germany. It can be kept for far less resources

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I thought I'd revisit my lengthy predictions on page 1 5 years on as there have been big developments, primarily with Super Rugby, that I think will really hurt Argentina and NZ. Plus potential for English qualified prioritisation in their league to help them and hinder Scotland and Wales. Basically, it seems I've kept everything largely the same as my previous prediction except for those countries. At the sharp end I think we'll see the top 5 or 6 open up a big gap on the rest compared to 5 years ago when you had an incredibly competitive top 9.

2032 rankings (gaps showing distance in rankings)

1 - France
2 - SA - really tempted to make first as URC is helping them retain internationals
3 - England
4 - Ireland - awesome but the above three have so much more resources
5 - NZ - the only competitive pack any of these guys will play all year in a meaningful fixture are the two SA games in the RC


6 - Australia - signs of life this year plus 2027 RWC should help



7 - Wales
8 - Argentina

9 - Japan - their league looks a bit better than I was expecting and should continue to professionalise. Ranking very variable depending on whether they get into an annual tournament with Tier1s (if they do, I think they could get to 7th or even 6th)
10 - Scotland - their promising player development period seems to have been more limited than I was expecting. English league changes could be huge for them. Residency at 5 years certainly will be.
11 - Italy - will catch up Scotland and start winning in the 6N every couple of years

12 - Fiji - helped by Super Rugby
13 - Spain - I'm still really optimistic for them, looks like they'll have two fully pro franchises this autumn, potential they could go even higher
14 - USA - promoting them due to hosting RWC and MLR now seeming secure
15 - Romania - still optimistic but only if they can maintain good exposure for their domestic pro players.

Breathing down Romania's neck:
Tonga/Samoa (huge benefit from eligibility, residency rules and Super Rugby)
Georgia - still lots of money and passion but no pathway to improve
Chile - huge potential here if they can keep a pro team especially if they qualify for 2023 RWC

 

[odw26]

7 - Wales

Interesting that you've got Wales so high when the WRU and their domestic game is seemingly in disarray and the national team doesn't really spark any confidence looking towards the future.
Speaking on Scotland, we've got a couple of decent players coming through but can't see us getting anywhere near the top 6 anymore unfortunately.
Would love to see USA make an impact on the international scene.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Interesting that you've got Wales so high when the WRU and their domestic game is seemingly in disarray and the national team doesn't really spark any confidence looking towards the future.
Speaking on Scotland, we've got a couple of decent players coming through but can't see us getting anywhere near the top 6 anymore unfortunately.
Would love to see USA make an impact on the international scene.

It's more just the weakness of everyone I've listed below Wales and the fact their u20s are a bit less rubbish than Scotlands. I am saying Japan may be ahead of Wales by 2032 if Japan can get into a Tier1 contest, so it's not like I'm bigging up Wales.

The hope for Scotland is that changes they've made at age grade combined with the Super6 will finally turn on the tap for domestic development with a bit more regularity. I'm just not convinced on that yet.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

5 - NZ - the only competitive pack any of these guys will play all year in a meaningful fixture are the two SA games in the RC

Quick question, just to gauge a bit. If the crusaders were to play, dunno, Leinster, Leicester or Toulouse, tomorrow, no injuries, no bs, neutral ground. Who do you think would win?

Would you be willing to take bets on NZ vs Ire on WR's rankings 2032?

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

I think South American teams will be in a great position. SLAR will continue to grow and give teams an opportunity to show their stuff against Argentinian youngsters. Given Europe's comfort signing Argentinians I think we'll see other South Americans appear in top pro leagues. I wouldn't be surprised to see Chile and Uruguay consistently above USA and Canada if MLR doesn't make fundamental changes.

Quick question, just to gauge a bit. If the crusaders were to play, dunno, Leinster, Leicester or Toulouse, tomorrow, no injuries, no bs, neutral ground. Who do you think would win?

Would you be willing to take bets on NZ vs Ire on WR's rankings 2032?

Yeah I think NZ will make some changes in face of SA's departure from Super Rugby (which is quite a huge shakeup) and the rankings are still based on who they play. New Zealand will continue to win games and I think Ireland will arguably have a tougher yearly schedule.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Quick question, just to gauge a bit. If the crusaders were to play, dunno, Leinster, Leicester or Toulouse, tomorrow, no injuries, no bs, neutral ground. Who do you think would win?

Would you be willing to take bets on NZ vs Ire on WR's rankings 2032?

I think Leinster would win, but Toulouse or Leicester would be slight underdogs, but all very competitive. Blues are great too, but Highlanders are slipping. Chiefs and Hurricanes are also below their level of 5 years ago. Give it a few years of these teams never having to front up against a top level pack (maybe Brumbies?) and I think it'll have an impact on their national side.

I wouldn't bet on something pretty marginal in 10 years time and I'd only say Ireland are 50/50 to win a test in their tour of NZ. Similarly I'd only think NZ are 50/50 of missing out on a SF at the RWC (and possibly ranking 5th as early as 2023). None of those are particularly inviting bets.

 

[ChicagoKid]

I think Leinster would win, but Toulouse or Leicester would be slight underdogs, but all very competitive. Blues are great too, but Highlanders are slipping. Chiefs and Hurricanes are also below their level of 5 years ago. Give it a few years of these teams never having to front up against a top level pack (maybe Brumbies?) and I think it'll have an impact on their national side.

I wouldn't bet on something pretty marginal in 10 years time and I'd only say Ireland are 50/50 to win a test in their tour of NZ. Similarly I'd only think NZ are 50/50 of missing out on a SF at the RWC (and possibly ranking 5th as early as 2023). None of those are particularly inviting bets.

I think you're missing the single biggest upside country: Uruguay.

Wealthy, politically stable, access to Argentina, and small enough where network effects could have an outsized positive impact.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

I think you're missing the single biggest upside country: Uruguay.

Wealthy, politically stable, access to Argentina, and small enough where network effects could have an outsized positive impact.

Yes, Uruguay are a good shout and consistently improving. Their population is 3.5 million and Chile's is 20 million (and they've already just about caught up to Uruguay's level) - so I give Chile the edge.

 

[pagliaccio_euforico]

Just got back from watching the SLAR highlights (thanks bruce) and something that struck me is how espn had their logo everywhere. Espn has gotten completely out of professional rugby here in the United States (no more MLR, super rugby, pro 14, or international matches) yet they seem to be investing heavily in SLAR. Betting against the mouse is never a good idea.

 

[Goodey]

New Zealand at 5 is ridiculous. They will never drop out of the top three at any point in the next ten years.

The fact that people act like it's a horror story when they commit the sins of 'not making the world cup final for once' and 'lost two (2) entire matches' doesn't mean that it actually is. At their worst they habitually clean up the rugby championship every other year at least and sweep their June series, and they don't spend much time at their worst.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

New Zealand at 5 is ridiculous. They will never drop out of the top three at any point in the next ten years.

The fact that people act like it's a horror story when they commit the sins of 'not making the world cup final for once' and 'lost two (2) entire matches' doesn't mean that it actually is. At their worst they habitually clean up the rugby championship every other year at least and sweep their June series, and they don't spend much time at their worst.

If they lose the first test against Ireland they'll be outside the top 3 in the next 6 weeks! SA are going to improve if they get a good coaching team and start picking regular ranking points off NZ. A NZ franchise just lost on home soil to an Aussie one (not even the best Aussie one). We shall see.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

New Zealand at 5 is ridiculous. They will never drop out of the top three at any point in the next ten years.

4th today. Could be 5th this time next week (probably around a 20% chance of that).

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

1. Ireland
2-6. Blank space
7. France
8. England
9. Wales
10. Scotland

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

That's the ABs down to 5th today a mere ten years ahead of my prediction. This is really bad, the factors I thought would limit the ABs in the future haven't even really kicked in yet so I think the gap between the ABs and 1st (in terms of ranking points) will on average grow by 2032, even if they get a big 'post Foster' bounce in the next year or two. I don't even think the current top 4 are particularly sensational either. Ireland and France are quite near their peak, England and SA have a lot of upside.

If Aus, Wales, Scotland and Pumas didn't have such fundamental issues it could be worse but there is a huge buffer down to 6th.

If the AB brand is destroyed it'll hit their commercial value for their various international sides (when other unions pay them to visit), which will accelerate issues with player retention and the sport will be the worse for it.

 

[mdaclarke]

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. England
4. Wales
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. USA
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Japan
14. Canada
15. Brazil

Am confident about my top 3. 4 to 9 is almost a lottery pick.

Agree with the comment about South Africa. They are the one team that can go man to man with the All Blacks and the one team that the All Blacks seem to fear when they (the Boks) are on fire.

Bumping this to see how we are going. We have 2 years to go from when this thread was first started.

Interesting that there has been no real inroads into the Tier 1 dominance. I think barring a miracle the Tier 1 will always be Tier 1.

I'm surprised that USA have not done better, but they have American Football.

Less said about Wales, the better.

 

[mdaclarke]

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. England
4. Wales
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. USA
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Japan
14. Canada
15. Brazil

Am confident about my top 3. 4 to 9 is almost a lottery pick.

Agree with the comment about South Africa. They are the one team that can go man to man with the All Blacks and the one team that the All Blacks seem to fear when they (the Boks) are on fire.

Bumping this to see how we are going.

I asked on the Georgian page where people think they will be in 10 years time and somebody suggested a new thread for this sort of thing so my question is of course, what do you think the rugby world rankings will look like 10 years from now?
I'll go first and make my prediction (in order).
1. England (as a Welshman it pains me but they seem to have an outstanding youth system right now)
2. New Zealand
3. Australia
4. Ireland
5. South Africa
6. Argentina
7. Wales
8. Scotland
9. France
10. Georgia
11. Japan
12. Fiji
13. USA
14. Italy
15. Germany
I'll be interested to see other people's suggestions. Ive really gone all ballsy and put Germany in there but they seem to have such excellent potential to thrive in the sport (especially if they can kick on this year and mount a creditable challenge for a World Cup place).
The reason I've done top 15 as well is because the top 8 or 9 really do pick themselves. Feel free to put your top 20 in. I feel that the gap between 'tier 2' nations and 'tier 1' nations will close massively which is what the game really does need in my opinion - after all everyone does like an underdog that is able to compete at a high level.

Forgot about this

Reviewed this after the world cup.

New Predictions

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. France
4. England
5. Wales
6. Ireland
7. Australia
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. Japan
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Samoa
14. USA
15. Canada
16 . Tonga
17. Russia
18. Namibia
19. Georgia
20. Uruguay

Toyed with putting South Africa at Number 1 and England at Number 3 (swapped with New Zealand and France)
Also not sure if I am being too harsh on Australia

1. New Zealand will always be 1 or 2
2. If it wasn't for the politics I would have put South Africa at 1 as in my opinion they have the biggest best player/schooling/coaching base. However the politics will always hold them back slightly, However their resources are just too great to be anything but top 3.
3. France I think are on the up. They have the player base, Rugby is popular in the South and they have the World Cup to host.
4. England will always be top 4 due to player base.
5. Wales and Ireland are a toss up, but as I'm welsh I out them above Ireland
6. Ireland and Wales are a toss up, but as I'm welsh I out them below Wales
7. Australian Rugby has the challenges of other codes that the other nations don't have. I slightly fear for Australian rugby
8. Argentina could improve more but the Super Rugby Issues don;t help, they could have done with a 2nd Super Rugby Team.
9. Scotland will never become a tier 2 team but they will always be one of the weaker tier 1 teams. Don't think picking South African cast-offs is a long term strategy.
10. Japan I think have had their high water mark.
11. Fiji will be the best of the Polynesian teams
12. Italy are better than their ranking suggests but as a Tier 1 team they only play other Tier 1 teams so they have no easy games to push up their rankings.
13. Samoa will still be a good team but won;'t progress as their player base is too small and the best are picked by New Zealand/club interference
14. USA have big player resources and MLR may help them but I don;t see rugby ever becoming a major sport there. They have the Australian problem on steroids (competition from other codes)
15. Canada are in the doldrums but I have a feeling they will recover slightly especially if MLR expands
16. Tonga have the same issues as Samoa but I don;t think they have the same player base.
17. Russia Similar to USA but not as good
18. Namibia I think they will be helped by South Africa next to them
19. Georgia I see them a bit like Romania in the past, I think they have had their highpoint
20. Uruguay I think they will be helped by Argentina next to them

Will be interesting to see how wrong I am!

I think Rugby should concentrate on keeping the Tier 1 and 2 teams strong rather than trying to grow the sport in other places. The loss of Australia will cause more damage than the gain of Germany. It can be kept for far less resources

I forgot that I made a second prediction. Not great!

 

[AlRums]

Current standings as of today initial predictions from the op seem to be lacking.

 

[ChicagoKid]

I realize I never did a rankings prediction. I'll resist an exact order and go with 'stock up, stock down' after eight years from the initial prediction.

Stock Up:

South Africa - It feels like the game is truly becoming the sport for ALL of SA.
Ireland - They are the industrious, intelligent brother in the dysfunctional Celtic household.
NZ - South Africa's success is driving them insane and leading to drastic moves: i.e., removing residency rules. But unlike most other unions, they genuinely care about winning at all costs.
France - Best Club Game. Biggest Stars. Biggest Rugby Economy. And unlike it's rival nation, it's not actively trying to destroy it's society.
Argentina - Despite all the challenges, they are like Rocky. You can knock them down, but you can't knock them out.
Italy - Same as above.
USA - Every year MLR survives is 1 year closer until RWC 2031.
Fiji - They will make a semi before we die.

To be determined:

Australia - The next 36 months will define the future of Oz rugby for 25 years.
Scotland - Stardust remains, but pathways remain immature and new residency rules means Saffa imports are much rarer.
Japan - Does Eddie have 1 more Ace up his sleeve?
Georgia - Desperately needs more Tier 1 games. Could be become the European version of Argentina.

Stock Down:

England - When Aled Walters and Felix Jones left within a fortnight, you know there is something deeply rotten with English rugby. Plus, the country is determined to follow Canada's path to a collapse in living standards.
Samoa/Tonga - No money. No local clubs. Lots of corruption.
Wales - Samoa and Tonga whisper to each other about how dysfunctional the Welsh are.
Canada - No other country has killed its game more thoroughly than America's little brother.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

Fiji - They will make a semi before we die.

Damn right we wi.... oh.

Nevermind.