Top 15 world rankings predictions for 10 years time?

[Welshdragon2000]

I must admit, I'm actually laughing here at the thought of Brazil being ahead of Ireland in the rankings in 10 years time, what makes me laugh more is someone genuinely thinks that's a possibility.

It's only his opinion mate. What makes me laugh is that someone got so triggered as to dislike every single post that wasn't favourable to New Zealand or Ireland or whoever you support.

Please share your top 15.

 

[Zero]

It's only his opinion mate. What makes me laugh is that someone got so triggered as to dislike every single post that wasn't favourable to New Zealand or Ireland or whoever you support.

Please share your top 15.

I didn't realize dislikes were taken so seriously around here . Indeed it is an opinion, but don't be too upset if people laugh at a silly opinion in a public domain!

I think NZ will likely remain on top because of the coaching! Also the insane talent we get from P.I. We get first pick of a lot of their top athletes, some people may call poaching, but you realize that NZ can provide a better life and opportunities for these talented athletes and their families, without the hassle of visa's and too far to migrate etc, so it works out great for both parties. I can't see NZ falling off the top for those reasons alone. We also politically have a lot to do with these countries and their communities.

England might have some great talent and a large player pool, but I can't see it ever being coached well enough, starting from secondary school right through to amateur club level to consistently best NZ. You have legends in all corners of NZ either playing or coaching or just in the community passing on their experience. The grassroots and secondary school stuff here is unbelievably strong.

England/Ireland and SA would be my picks to knock NZ off its perch if someone were to do, I'm sure they will at some point for a short period of time, Murphy's law and all!

I really wouldn't write off SA either, they might be going through a bad period, but I think they're slowly coming out of it. Once they sort out their hierarchy and coaching issues they are easily going to be right back among the top. Like NZ, they produce an assembly line of great players.

I think Scotland, Wales and Ireland embraced a lot of Kiwi rugby and have grown from it. They have established a strong understanding of what needs to be done to improve and I can see them building on that!

I do worry about France and Australia though. These are the two I could easily see falling off, I still have my doubts though, I think there's too much pride and quality in France to ever truly become terrible, same goes for Australia.

Call me racist, or whatever you want! But I just don't think the Japanese are genetically able to keep up. It's a fact they are smaller people physically, which will continue to stop them breaking into the top tier! Skill wise they will be fine, physically I just don't think they will ever win consistently enough.

 

[Brigantine]

To turn this thread upside down for a moment, here are the top 15 from 10 years ago. (specifically 2008-02-25)

1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. Argentina
4. England
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Wales
9. Fiji
10. Scotland
11. Italy
12. Samoa
13. Tonga
14. Georgia
15. Canada

16. Romania
17. Russia
18. Japan
19. USA
20. Uruguay
21. Spain

 

[Zero]

I think a bit question for England would be; what happens after Eddie Jones!? I think that's a problem they will face, he invigorated the current squad and installed belief, but let me know if I'm wrong in saying that England probably doesn't have a great coach waiting in the wings to continue what he's built?

 

[Not Mike Brown's Sock]

I think a bit question for England would be; what happens after Eddie Jones!? I think that's a problem they will face, he invigorated the current squad and installed belief, but let me know if I'm wrong in saying that England probably doesn't have a great coach waiting in the wings to continue what he's built?

Rob Baxter is being prepared for it i belive, and the RFU have confirmed that the new coach will be brought in alongside Eddie at the end of his tenure, so a massive overhaul and dip in form is hopefully avoided

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

To turn this thread upside down for a moment, here are the top 15 from 10 years ago. (specifically 2008-02-25)

1. South Africa
2. New Zealand
3. Argentina
4. England
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Wales
9. Fiji
10. Scotland
11. Italy
12. Samoa
13. Tonga
14. Georgia
15. Canada

16. Romania
17. Russia
18. Japan
19. USA
20. Uruguay
21. Spain

Setting aside the fluctuation in some Tier 1 nations that is pretty depressing reading. Not much variation at all. The collapse of Canada and relative rise of Japan is about the only change at Tier 2 level and there are less Tier1 nations ranked below a Tier 2 than there was 10 years ago.

It makes it harder to argue for substantial change in the next decade or two.

 

[GarethGriffiths]

What the heck...

1. New Zealand
2. Australia
3. England
4. Ireland
5. Wales
6. Scotland
7. Argentina
8. France
9. South Africa
10. Georgia
11. USA
12. Italy
13. Japan
14. Fiji
15. Portugal

 

[mdaclarke]

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. England
4, Australia
5. France
6. Ireland
7. Argentina
8. Wales
9. Scotland
10. Italy
11. Georgia
12. Japan
13. Canada
14. USA
15. Fiji

 

[Ragey Erasmus]

1. New Zealand
2. England
3. Ireland
4. Australia
5. Wales
6. Scotland
7. Argentina
8. France
9. South Africa
10. Italy
11. Georgia
12. Japan
13. Romania
14. USA
15. Canada

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Some much needed love for Canada from the last two posts. Rumours they may get a professional team in 2019 to join the new US league. I think they'll need that to stand any chance of regaining their former place.

 

[GarethGriffiths]

Some much needed love for Canada from the last two posts. Rumours they may get a professional team in 2019 to join the new US league. I think they'll need that to stand any chance of regaining their former place.

That would definitely be a positive move.

I did receive a PM about 'Why Portugal at 15?' Well, they appear to be a side on the up and could be a future Georgia.

 

[Welshdragon2000]

I think the side going under the radar are the Netherlands. They were ranked mid-40s not long ago and now they're 27th and climbing the rankings at a crazy rate. They'll overtake Germany by the end of the European championships I expect and maybe even Belgium(?)

 

[Brigantine]

Right now the Netherlands are ranked above Germany. But also, don't read too much into it when a team in a competition too high for them drops in the rankings, that's entirely normal and short-term. Once they're relegated and have easier competition they usually make up lost ground.

Ditto Portugal looking strong in a competition too low for them. If they get promoted, they'll start losing ground again (short-term).

(Unless it's Italy or Argentina, and there is no hope of relegation to a more appropriate level - Or Ukraine and the decline is caused by war)

 

[Welshdragon2000]

It's that time of year again ladies and gentlemen. Lots have changed in the past year and a few of my picks have also changed...

1. New Zealand
2. England
3. South Africa
4. Ireland
5. Wales
6. France
7. Scotland
8. Argentina
9. Australia
10. USA
11. Japan
12. Georgia
13. Italy
14. Fiji
15. Uruguay

Of course the World League could come along and ruin everything in which case my predictions will change. the gap between tier 1 and tier 2 will be slim and the current tier 1.5 sides (Japan, Georgia, USA etc.) will be capable of beating the current tier 1 sides on a regular basis. Italy's U20 sides over the past few years have looked pretty good so I think they will be a more competitive outfit in the future. The 6N need to be opened up for the sake of Georgia and all the other REC teams so hopefully something happens on that front. Tonga, Russia, Spain, Romania and Brazil to make up the rest of the top 20.

 

[Cruz_del_Sur]

I think we could very well see a big move with the USA. They are taking a rather smart approach imo. They took sevens first, which is a faster-paced game and therefore suited to their audience.
And even with second-tier athletes, some of which can even tackle or pass the ball properly to both sides, they are dominating the sevens series. They are doing a decent effort with their internal 15s tournaments (you can watch their games for free on facebook, etc). Their performance on the ARC has also increased a LOT. With a little bit of effort, they could be a top 10 nation. Maybe 10 years is not enough for that tho.

France will be higher, but that's just a dead cat bounce.

I was thinking South Africa but they arent really as bad as some say they are. Inconsistent, sure, bad, definitely not. I dont think any other team could have beaten NZ in NZ like they did. They still have that NZ kryptonite mysticism about them and i dont see that going away. The managed to somehow become rough around the edges and untidy, but the talent is there.
I for one dont really care for the rankings and, when it really matters (WCs), RSA can beat anyone.
it's the very last team NZers would like to face (not in terms of watching a competitive match, but in terms of preventing them from winning the entire thing). That alone speaks volumes.

Australia is the biggest question mark. If they give a damn they could easily be top 3. They could very well be 10ish. Who knows.

Ireland, as much as i love what they are doing, i think they have an incredible generation. A strong combination of experience, leadership up and coming hunger and talent.
I expect them to fall back a bit on the ranks in 10 years.
Size matters and i dont see Ireland having the numbers. And comparing them to NZ is just silly. NZ place all of their eggs in one basket, Ireland do not. Winning the world cup could change that, but that is a huge if.


Fiji, Tonga and Samoa to go down on the rankings.

 

[FrenchFan]

It's that time of year again ladies and gentlemen. Lots have changed in the past year and a few of my picks have also changed...

The French union are not going back into the Top 8 long term until they've delivered the right coaching structure and selection policy. Having the players ain't enough as the last 9 years have showed...
https://www.therugbyforum.com/threads/what-is-wrong-with-french-rugby.42822/page-2#post-934882

 

[mdaclarke]

1. New Zealand
2. South Africa
3. England
4. Wales
5. Australia
6. France
7. Ireland
8. Argentina
9. Scotland
10. USA
11. Fiji
12. Italy
13. Japan
14. Canada
15. Brazil

Am confident about my top 3. 4 to 9 is almost a lottery pick.

Agree with the comment about South Africa. They are the one team that can go man to man with the All Blacks and the one team that the All Blacks seem to fear when they (the Boks) are on fire.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I reckon being a constant in the top 5 with the odd trip to 2 or even 1 is more than attainable for Ireland over the next 10 years at least.

England, New Zealand, South Africa and France are the only countries currently in the top 10 that either are better than us (NZ) - Are at a similar level as us and have been for much of this RWC cycle (Eng, SA) - Or have the resources so that a few drastic changes would quickly have them in a position where they're consistently better than us (France). In reality, those four countries should always and forever be the top 4 (minor hyperbole), currently the IRFU punch smarter than three of them.

Argentina will eventually catch up and get there, I don't know what difficulties they face apart from soccer to really comment but I think, perhaps naively, that they need more than 10 years to be consistently better than us.

Australia have been going backwards and it's snowballing, it's seriously volatile but I think the AFL and NRL are strong enough to keep Aussie Union down, the lustre of international competition is becoming less and less attractive there. But, this is definitely the nation I'm least sure of.

Until Wales get their club game right I don't see them doing as much on the world stage as Ireland, read that as beating NZ and winning games in the SH. I think Leinster, Ulster and Munster consistently playing European knockout games help Ireland elevate their games in big test matches (hopefully it's spills over to a RWC QF this year) more often than the Welsh. I also anticipate a bit of a Gatland hangover. Once they do get their act together, and it's more than possible over ten years, they more or less have the same ceiling we do anyway. I don't think Wales are as far behind Ireland as this post may suggest, I reckon they're slightly ahead of where we were in 2015, currently Ireland has the higher ceiling though.

Scotland are working with less. Italy are more or less a developing nation. Anyone else has a long way to catch up and I don't see a current tier two side cracking the top 7 for at least 15 years.

Brackets are in no particular order
1-3: NZ, SA, Eng
4-7: Ireland, Wales, Argentina, France
8-9: Scotland, Australia
I don't know enough to estimate anything beyond that.

 

[bushytop]

... I also anticipate a bit of a Gatland hangover...

I'm kind of expecting this too... not sure who we'll miss most Gats or Edwards! The one thing I would say though is, I expect Stephen Jones to have a bigger positive impact on the backs that that of Howlers.

 

[Leinster Fan]

NZ will always certainly be No.1. SA, England and France should be Top 4 teams most years based off resources. England are probably at that level now, SA have issues but seen to be getting it right. France are just are just a mess, but they're a mess with the players to be very good. I don't think Ireland or anyone else can expect to continually surpass those four if they get it right. Compete with them and beat them on a semi-regular basis, definitely, but to expect to beat them consistently no.

I think Wales will struggle a bit post-Gatland, he's masked the problems with their regions for ages and I think that'll be dragged into the open. Domestic Welsh rugby is in turmoil and there doesn't seem to be an obvious solution. Scotland are doing about as well as could be expected given their resources, both clubs being in the European knockouts is a great achievement. I think on balance if they get a good run with injuries during a given year there's a chance of them winning a Six Nations over the next few years if things fall their way. Italy are undeniably improving even if it's not obvious at the top level right now.

I'm too biased to talk about Ireland but like Alpha I don't think top 5 over the next 10 years is unrealistic. That said, if we're ever going to win a World Cup, it's probably going to be this year (not saying it's likely, just that it's more likely than in 2023/27). Not that I expect anything other than QF exits but I can dream.

Argentina are good, so long as they stay away from us at World Cups I wish them all the best. They could do with another team though. The sad reality with Australia is that the game just isn't very big there. They've overperformed for decades but that seems to be coming to an end. I hope I'm wrong though.

Despite what some people think, I'd say the gap between Tier 1 and 2 is still fairly big, so long as you don't count Italy (and the worst France team in memory) Argentina have shown it's not insurmountable though. I think it takes a decent while knocking on the door before you can expect wins.

Anyway, I expect to look back on this in a few years and be amazed at how consistently wrong I was about everything. If even a quarter of this is half-right I'm going to declare myself a prophet.