The General RWC 2023 draw discussion thread

[AlRums]

Imagine having to play a quarterfinal against one of the top 4 teams in the world 5 weeks after you played anyone in the top 13 teams. That's france and NZ.

And Ireland, South Africa and potentially Scotland

 

[Umaga's Witness]

And Ireland, South Africa and potentially Scotland

No,within that 5 week period: scotland would have played Ireland 1 week from the qf, South Africa would have played Ireland 3 from the qf, And accordingly for Ireland playing two games in that period.

Put that another way: you could say that scotland, Ireland, and South Africa (assuming france and New Zealand both make the quarterfinals and so do two of Ireland, South Africa and scotland) are the only teams that will have previously played a top 5 team less than 5 weeks from having to play a top 5 team in a playoff fixture.

Poor Argentina, if they make the semifinals, would not have played a top 5 opposition in 11 weeks. For England and Wales it would be 9, for Australia 8.

 

[die_mole]

I kind of like the draw for France and New Zealand. They aren't going to be concerned about who they play in the quarterfinals as it's going to be a tough match no matter what. You just need three weeks starting October 14th where everything is absolutely rolling. 2 games you'll need to be at your best and the semi-final you can be at 80%.

South Africa and Ireland have to worry about Finn Russell and the merry pranksters. They should be good but I could also see Scotland getting a scalp.

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

My main interest as ever, is whether a Tier 1 will finish 4th in their group and thereby miss auto-qualification for 2027 (which would mean they would have to rub shoulders with Tier2 oppostion more and encourage a proper qualification tournament). With that in mind, and factoring in that I am generally a fan of world ranking scores as an estimate of team strength, this is my take.

Group A - Uruguay finishing ahead of Italy is unlikely. But will Crowley be all that motivated since he has been royally underappreciated by the Italian union and got his retirement coaching job in the Japanese league. Uruguay are 8 points behind Italy in the rankings. The same gap as Scotland and England to the top 4. I'd give them a 5-10% chance of pulling off such a history making result.

Group B - horrible for Tonga and Romania. Both decent sides with decent coaches but they need a miracle to finish 3rd or higher

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Group C - the true gift from World Rugby where they may have shot themselves in the foot with the early draw (although Wallabies qualify as hosts for 2027, so its Wales I'll be rooting against most). The top 4 in the group are currently ranked 8-11 in the rankings with just 3.5 ranking points separating them (the same as the gap between Ireland and SA).

However, Fiji lost Vern Cotter earlier this year and both Georgia and Fiji will have had very little exposure to top teams this year. Wales should also be more consistent with Gatland. However, Fiji and Georgia have built excellent depth in their 23s and have some real flair to unlock a defence, so I will be glued to this.

I don't fancy Portugal's chances as despite their backs being superb, their front row is ancient (as is their scrumhalf) and their flyhalf doesn't do it for me personally. Even if Fiji and Georgia bring their A game to the Tier1 matches it'll probably be something infuriating like Wallabies finishing 4th (and autoqualifying) or Portugal then getting a win over Fiji or Georgia. I'd rate the chances of Wales finishing 4th as less than 5% despite World Rugby's best accidental efforts with the draw.


Group D - on paper this is 6th, 7th, 12th and 13th, with just 6 ranking points covering them (same gap as Scotland and England to SA). So upsets should be possible, right? Jamie Joseph is a wizard and Samoa have Leilifano and Sopoaga as their 10s (although the latter still hasn't played due to visa issues). I'm just not remotely smelling an upset here though for matches played in a French autumn rather than humid Japan or somewhere hot. Japan's supply of forwards eligible under residency is drying up/ageing and they've not really had a convincing performance that I can remember since RWC 2019. Plus Joseph has been given the bullet which cannot help his motivation.

England can suffocate these sides at the set piece and Argentina will be more fluent in the backs (and always thrash Japan). If either Tier1 gets a red card though Japan and Samoa should be good enough to make it squeaky bum time. A tragically awful draw for Chile. If they can score 2 tries in the whole tournament they will be doing well.

 

[AlRums]

My main interest as ever, is whether a Tier 1 will finish 4th in their group and thereby miss auto-qualification for 2027 (which would mean they would have to rub shoulders with Tier2 oppostion more and encourage a proper qualification tournament). With that in mind, and factoring in that I am generally a fan of world ranking scores as an estimate of team strength, this is my take.

Group A - horrible for Tonga and Romania. Both decent sides with decent coaches but they need a miracle to finish 3rd or higher.

Group B - Uruguay finishing ahead of Italy is unlikely. But will Crowley be all that motivated since he has been royally underappreciated by the Italian union and got his retirement coaching job in the Japanese league. Uruguay are 8 points behind Italy in the rankings. The same gap as Scotland and England to the top 4. I'd give them a 5-10% chance of pulling off such a history making result.

Just a note. You got A and B the wrong way round

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I'm starting to warm to fiji despite then losing cotter and Ryan. I think they are still holding some of the lessons they had learnt from these coaches, as well as mick beirne at the drua, and the various coaches in Europe that these players play for.

Their set piece has been pretty good in their games so far this year, muntz is playing the percentages well, and although their discipline hasn't been great they still have glen jackson as an assistant coach.

That, combined with getting warm up matches against france and england could put them in good stead to take game 1 against wales, after which they might sharpen up as a quarterfinal opportunity becomes more realistic.

That extra sharpness along with good depth should ensure they don't drop a game they are expected to win like they did against Uruguay last time around, although Georgia will be a tough game.

 

[OllyM97]

My general thoughts
Pool A - France and NZ obviously to go through. Gut feeling is France to win that first match. If they play to their maximum, especially at home, i can't see anyone stopping them - even the ABs will have their work cut out.

Pool B - I think people are writing Scotland off prematurely. I always think they have points in them these days and on their day they could beat South Africa or Ireland. I think depth could kill the Scots but if their key players stay fit who knows. The Springboks to win the group, they just know how to get it done in the World Cup. Ireland to edge Scotland for 2nd.

Pool C - A bit of a shambles this pool but a poor Australia side to win it. Really want to say Fiji will get through and they can beat Wales but I think the Welsh will just do enough. Georgia could throw a curveball in somewhere along the line as well.

Pool D - Japan are not the force they were and they won't get the same boost as they did last time through the home crowds. England and Argentina will get through but it really depends on what Pumas team turns up in Marseille in game 1. If they play to their best level I would, sadly, tip them to finish ahead of England.


QFs
1 - France to beat Ireland - France with the home advantage are the better team and will have a mental edge with finishing top of their group ahead of NZ.
2 - New Zealand to beat South Africa - The ABs seem to have discovered the template to cut this Springbok blitz defence to pieces. SA will have to go full throttle to win their group and I think NZ would be the fresher of the two sides.
3 - England to beat Australia - Forward dominance will do for Eddie's boys. England are a limited team but direct rugby has troubled this Aussie team for 4/5 years. Also, if England aren't good enough to win, then Aus will do it for us with poor discipline/errors.
4 - Argentina to beat Wales - The Pumas are the better team and would be very confident in this match-up. Wales are mediocre.

Semi-Finals
1 - France to beat Argentina - Would the ghosts of 07 haunt the French?. No.
2 - New Zealand to beat England - 2019 revenge, and it would be served very cold.

Final
France to beat New Zealand - Won with an Antoine Dupont/Romain Ntamack special (ala top 14 final) in the 80th minute with the scores level.

 

[Bada-Bing!]

The Breakdown | The final countdown: the big question marks before the Rugby World Cup

With a month of warmup Tests looming, significant unanswered questions hang over several nations

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bada-Bing!]

My general thoughts
Pool A - France and NZ obviously to go through. Gut feeling is France to win that first match. If they play to their maximum, especially at home, i can't see anyone stopping them - even the ABs will have their work cut out.

Pool B - I think people are writing Scotland off prematurely. I always think they have points in them these days and on their day they could beat South Africa or Ireland. I think depth could kill the Scots but if their key players stay fit who knows. The Springboks to win the group, they just know how to get it done in the World Cup. Ireland to edge Scotland for 2nd.

Pool C - A bit of a shambles this pool but a poor Australia side to win it. Really want to say Fiji will get through and they can beat Wales but I think the Welsh will just do enough. Georgia could throw a curveball in somewhere along the line as well.

Pool D - Japan are not the force they were and they won't get the same boost as they did last time through the home crowds. England and Argentina will get through but it really depends on what Pumas team turns up in Marseille in game 1. If they play to their best level I would, sadly, tip them to finish ahead of England.


QFs
1 - France to beat Ireland - France with the home advantage are the better team and will have a mental edge with finishing top of their group ahead of NZ.
2 - New Zealand to beat South Africa - The ABs seem to have discovered the template to cut this Springbok blitz defence to pieces. SA will have to go full throttle to win their group and I think NZ would be the fresher of the two sides.
3 - England to beat Australia - Forward dominance will do for Eddie's boys. England are a limited team but direct rugby has troubled this Aussie team for 4/5 years. Also, if England aren't good enough to win, then Aus will do it for us with poor discipline/errors.
4 - Argentina to beat Wales - The Pumas are the better team and would be very confident in this match-up. Wales are mediocre.

Semi-Finals
1 - France to beat Argentina - Would the ghosts of 07 haunt the French?. No.
2 - New Zealand to beat England - 2019 revenge, and it would be served very cold.

Final
France to beat New Zealand - Won with an Antoine Dupont/Romain Ntamack special (ala top 14 final) in the 80th minute with the scores level.

I can see France losing their first pool game v NZ but meeting them in the final and winning. Nerves on the first night but them to grow into the tournament because they will qualify from Pool A. It'll be typical of the French to do it that way.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

I can see France losing their first pool game v NZ but meeting them in the final and winning. Nerves on the first night but them to grow into the tournament because they will qualify from Pool A. It'll be typical of the French to do it that way.

Interesting take, I would have thought nerve-wise they are more likely to feel overly nervous in the final but not so much the first match. It doesn't matter if they lose the first match, and they'll have home support. The final on the other hand they'll be expected to win and it does matter.

 

[ncurd]

Group D - on paper this is 6th, 7th, 12th and 13th, with just 6 ranking points covering them (same gap as Scotland and England to SA). So upsets should be possible, right? Jamie Joseph is a wizard and Samoa have Leilifano and Sopoaga as their 10s (although the latter still hasn't played due to visa issues). I'm just not remotely smelling an upset here though for matches played in a French autumn rather than humid Japan or somewhere hot. Japan's supply of forwards eligible under residency is drying up/ageing and they've not really had a convincing performance that I can remember since RWC 2019. Plus Joseph has been given the bullet which cannot help his motivation.

England can suffocate these sides at the set piece and Argentina will be more fluent in the backs (and always thrash Japan). If either Tier1 gets a red card though Japan and Samoa should be good enough to make it squeaky bum time. A tragically awful draw for Chile. If they can score 2 tries in the whole tournament they will be doing well.

History also says you have to be Tier 1 side to beat England, no Tier 2 team has ever beaten them and Italy never has either.

 

[Leonormous Boozer]

I'm fairly confident we'll beat France / Anyone if we have Sexton fit for it.

Really don't see us going 3/5 provided we don't **** everything up spectacularly.

 

[die_mole]

I'd take a fit France over a fit Ireland. Doubt either team will make it to quarterfinal full strength. Danty is probably most important player France.

 

[Which Tyler]

I'd take a fit France over a fit Ireland. Doubt either team will make it to quarterfinal full strength. Danty is probably most important player France.

Pressure off, and I'd agree with you.
But Ireland's game is better suited to knock-out rugby than France's.

As you say though, which players aren't available will likely be a bigger factor (though I'd say Dupont is more important than Danty - but I might be biased due to being an ex-SH).

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

The Boks looked like world beaters last November and made me a believer in Nienaber. They were my favourites at that point because I thought they would improve further has they firmed up on a first choice XV. The drop off on their form in TRC (with similar massive squad rotations to last November) is a bit worrisome and if Scotland are at full strength and put in a top showing then the Boks look vulnerable in a way that the Irish do not (in the groups at least). For the first time I am thinking of Ireland as favourites (if Sexton is fit and in reasonable form), but I will refrain from creating a thread about their 'dominance'.

Due to the quirky draw I'm probably putting Pumas as joint 2nd with France (with France outright 2nd favourites if they get past the QF). I think the Pumas have a lot more giant killing potential in a SF than England, Australia or Wales do.

Boks and NZ joint 4th favourites following improved form with Schmidt and renewed uncertainty about Nienaber. Happy to at least be going into a RWC thinking there are 4 or 5 really viable contendors.

For clarity, if the draw was based on current rankings i would have the top 4 ranked teams completely locked in for the SFs, with Pumas and Scotland as a distant joint 5th.

 

[Umaga's Witness]

At the moment I'm thinking springboks Ireland final, but this might be old school thinking. Until very recently a team would perform massively better if they had tough fixtures in recent appearances, and teams would look incredibly rusty in their first test of the season (not that this will be the case in the World Cup, it's just a good example of how teams these days are better prepared at training rather than needing time together in the paddock).

Still, in all pro rugby comps teams talk about wanting to take momentum into playoffs. But momentum against poor teams continues to prove detrimental if anything. So, for me, momentum only counts when against tough opposition.

In terms of the freshness vs momentum balance, this is something I watch closely but I think world cups are a different kettle of fish. The rule is usually a team will play its best on its second to fourth consecutive weekly game against other top opposition. But it might be more like the second game for World Cup matches, or it might be the third tough game in four to five weeks or fourth in five to six weeks that is optimal instead.

It just seems to me the boks and Ireland are perfectly placed, as compared to france and New Zealand, to win the quarterfinals (and these are their toughest games). Remember compared to the other teams New Zealand players will be at the end of their season too.

While things may get less ideal after the quarterfinal stage, they will be playing lesser opposition.

Also South Africa and irelands teams are better suited to world cups.

All that said, if the French are controlling the big screen at games, then france wins the World Cup. As simple as that. Does anyone know if this will be the case? If it is I'll be putting money in france for sure

 

[Bruce_ma gooshvili]

Someone flagged up this rather nice schedule to me. I prefer it to the official one.

Rugby World Cup 2023

Macoocoo - Online Tournament Management

www.macoocoo.com

 

[die_mole]

I'm now very confident we will see a tier 1 fail to automatically qualify for 2027. Just have to wait and see.

 

[mdaclarke]

I'm now very confident we will see a tier 1 fail to automatically qualify for 2027. Just have to wait and see.

I would guess that Wales is most likely followed by England and then Scotland.

I say Scotland, because although they are playing well, they have a shocking draw with Ireland and South Africa. Although possible, I think it is unlikely they will beat either of them, they then have Tonga to beat and the Pacific Islands teams are always dangerous at World Cups.