Not necessarily. It doesn't come down to numbers. It comes down to priority. NZ is ahead of the posse because the ABs are the no1 priority in NZ rugby. They're on top of the pyramid. It's not the same everywhere.
Also, in order to play catch-up successfully we need a competition that enables the NH to raise the bar. The 6N of the last 3 years hasn't delivered. It's a nice competition but it doesn't challenge the RC in terms of competitiveness of the teams involved. Wales are a good side and could win the next 6N yet got taken apart by NZ in the last series.
Without a more competitive 6N it's hard to see the NH catch up with NZ given the lead they have and their ability to ride out generation changes. Tours are not enough. We've been touring for decades and it's not enough.
Excellent post FF.
You have covered a major issue succinctly.
The Club system which put rugby on the map in Europe is now holding back the European rugby nations. Wales were a lot nation in the 1980's and into the 90's. If it wasn't for the difficult work by Graham Henry and co. Wales would still be in a mess. Yes it put a 'lot' of Welsh peoples noses out of joint (some are still smarting about it now) because they had their beloved club/county amalgamated into others they had enjoyed a rivalry with for generations. This action cut down the number of little slices in the cake and meant that there was a less convoluted path for the best players to make their way along the conveyer belt to the top squad. The results from the pre-Henry era don't compare well to the post Henry era. It took a long time and a lot of upheaval but...
Wales are back on the map, with trophy winning ways and a competitive side that cannot be taken lightly by anyone.
England are a different type of fish. Comparatively the game in England is so popular that the clubs have flourished and so has the national game to a certain extent. The English system is turning out quality recruits in spite of the Club structure because the player base is so numerous. There is starting to be an issue with foreign players in the English set up taking places of potential England candidates but it's not nearly as advanced as it is in France.
The 6 Nations is not delivering the kind of competition that will see the top NH teams get better, or the bottom teams improve.
It's a lovely old relic but it's just not fit for purpose anymore.
It desperately needs change to bring a better vehicle to the fore so the competing nations can have more pressure at test level.
France, England, Ireland and Wales, thats it, 4 top nations, home and away, each team gets 6 games and they will all be hard because the teams are good. It's not too long away from the club competitions and the week in week out nature of the tournament will mirror the pressures of being at a RWC.
Italy AND Scotland go down into the next tier with Georgia and Romania? and they do it again. This enriches the tier two making it much more viable and watchable. Scotland or Italy might actually win something and they could win several games instead of just one, something that never happens to Italy. Georgia and Romania would get the tv time, sponsorship and the tough international games that they desperately need and rugby would start to get more attention in their countries.
This would need to be driven and financially assisted by the IRB.
This doesn't stop test matches being arranged between the tiers during the year. They can be added as mini tours to keep the national team squad together as a unit.
No coming up and down every year. Instead base it on success at the RWC and if Scotland, Italy, Romania or Georgia do better than one of the teams from the top four so the changes in the tiers are made.
It would certainly make the NH teams sit up and try harder at the RWC.
On their last RWC performance England would possibly be in the second tier for four years, the ignominy of such a situation and the potential loss of sponsorship would demand more effort from the players, coaching staff and the management.
In short the pressure would MAKE the countries streamline their focus into bringing the best players through and giving them a bit more time with their national squads, then it would improve their abilities under fire because the quality and intensity of the competitions they were involved in are going to be ratcheted upward.
It's a pipe dream at the moment but unless changes come the status quo will remain largely untouched.
This is the kind of paradigm shift that would allow the NH teams to advance.
The talent is here and the market is ready (look at Wales structure, everything is in place they just need a higher bar than the 6 Nations format provides to strive toward every year) but the changes have to come for the NH teams to be able to take advantage.
Just my 2 cents worth.