Teams capable of winning the 2013 Heineken Cup

[Peat]

I think you can safely count out Embra, Scarlets and Munster from the original post. Yes, I said it. Munster simply don't have enough players of the right age categories to contend, too many veterans with diminishing powers on one hand and too many youngsters who are a season or two off on the other.

I, uhm, can't really see Ulster either if I'm honest. There's still a bit too much big match inexperience kicking about, the coaching thing will surely be disruptive, and we need a better bench. I guess I can't discount us either, but we're outsiders still, and have to remember that.

Leicester deserve serious consideration imo. On song, they have a pack near as good as anyone's, a very destructive backline, and some strong depth.

As an outside chance, I'm just gonna moot Quins. They're learning to win their big games, they're beginning to hold their own in the scrum, they've got a superb back-row and run incredible support lines as a whole.

On any given day, outside the major bear pits of Europe, I still expect Leinster to beat anyone, my delusions aside. They do have concerns - the second row, what happens if Mike Ross dies, a few aging players - but for the most part it's a machine where you take out one part and place in another just like that. Even O'Driscoll.

 

[Tony Manx]

Biarritz won eight of their last ten matches in all competitions to end the season. Their problems from the beginning stemmed from inexperienced players leading a team completely depleted of their core talent during the RWC. As of now they have a shot at winning the H-Cup next season, but I doubt they would win it unless they can start scoring more tries and rely less on Yachvili. Their problems lie more in their backs than their forwards with needed improvements at the center and wing positions. I would also like to see them bring in a star fullback. The club has absolutely no need to improve their fly-half and scrum-half positions other than to look to the future.

I agree with most of this apart from they desperately need a good fly half. Even the management, and I would like to see changes there, recognise the need as they have tried Traille, Bosch, Balshaw, Halyett-Petty and Barraque there this season instead of Perylongue and even bought Baby as the replacement yet none of them could do a better job than Perylongue. He is a brave and willing player who, apart from one beautiful kick in the Amlin Final, struggles for accuracy out of hand and from the tee and is not prone to make breaks. He is OK but will never set the backs going or lead them.

BO seem to be banking on Couet Lannes to come back from injury at 15 so will not buy there, Lesgourges at 9 so will not buy there, they are looking to Brew to fill the vacant wing slot and have H-P/Barraque and Traille in the centre with Berquist at 10. Hardly a back line to challenge that at Ulster or Leinster never mind in the French League!

Unfortunately, Traille and Imanol are now advancing in age for rugby and, although been fantastic over the years, do not seem to me to have the same hunger for the run of the mill games but excel in the Cup competitons. There are ready made replacements for Imanol in the back row but none for Traille who organises and galvanises the backs and takes responsibility for them and the kicking game.

Consequently, they will again struggle, perhaps as you say even more so, without Marconnet and Watremez, or with any sort of injury to Yach, and a back up hooker to Heguy to throw in BUT I would never rule them out of a Cup run although could not see them winning it!

Leinster, Clermont, Leicester, Toulouse, Saffacens, Toulon, Montpellier, Ulster, Saints, Edinbugh are the guys I would go for to qualify (draw permitting) although cannot see past Leinster to win it again at the moment! They have the players (not necessarily the best in every position), but more important the confidence, organisation, spirit and hunger that are essential

 

[lucky number 7]

I'm poppingn money down for Leinster to nick 3 in a row.

Aside from that it's Toulouse or Leicster for me.

 

[welshglory]

Good to hear good vibrations about the Ospreys. Don't think they'll do it next year, especially with our lack of quality backup during international periods and lack of star quality in the back line. If we can continue to build the squad with better finances next year then i think we could have a real shot in 2 or 3 years. Scarlet's have no chance, don't know why anyone would even consider them.

 

[dullonien]

Good to hear good vibrations about the Ospreys. Don't think they'll do it next year, especially with our lack of quality backup during international periods and lack of star quality in the back line. If we can continue to build the squad with better finances next year then i think we could have a real shot in 2 or 3 years. Scarlet's have no chance, don't know why anyone would even consider them.

I don't see why next year should be seen as too early tbh. An Ospreys pack of Bevngton, Hibbard, Jones, Jones, Evans, Jones, Tipuric, Bearman/Stowers is capable of overpowering all the Rabo Pro12 teams, as well as the majority of Aviva teams and many French teams. Once that's the case, the backs will take care of themselves as long as Biggar is on song (at least he always is with the boot). Beck and Dirksen provide star quality in the backs imo, even if they're not current internationals.

Maybe I'm being waaay too optimistic after the Munster demolition, and the Ospreys will revert to type in next seasons HC...........

I'd certainly put them above Edinburgh, Munster, Scarlets and Ulster (despite them reaching the final this year).

As for the Scarlets. They are probably being touted due to that backline which includes a few of the most exciting players in NH rugby, in North, Davies, Priestland and Stoddart when he returns. But the pack isn't good enough, and that counts in a long tournament like the HC where more than a couple of losses spells the end of the road.

 

[windsorroberts]

I agree with most of this apart from they desperately need a good fly half. Even the management, and I would like to see changes there, recognise the need as they have tried Traille, Bosch, Balshaw, Halyett-Petty and Barraque there this season instead of Perylongue and even bought Baby as the replacement yet none of them could do a better job than Perylongue. He is a brave and willing player who, apart from one beautiful kick in the Amlin Final, struggles for accuracy out of hand and from the tee and is not prone to make breaks. He is OK but will never set the backs going or lead them.

BO seem to be banking on Couet Lannes to come back from injury at 15 so will not buy there, Lesgourges at 9 so will not buy there, they are looking to Brew to fill the vacant wing slot and have H-P/Barraque and Traille in the centre with Berquist at 10. Hardly a back line to challenge that at Ulster or Leinster never mind in the French League!

Unfortunately, Traille and Imanol are now advancing in age for rugby and, although been fantastic over the years, do not seem to me to have the same hunger for the run of the mill games but excel in the Cup competitons. There are ready made replacements for Imanol in the back row but none for Traille who organises and galvanises the backs and takes responsibility for them and the kicking game.

Consequently, they will again struggle, perhaps as you say even more so, without Marconnet and Watremez, or with any sort of injury to Yach, and a back up hooker to Heguy to throw in BUT I would never rule them out of a Cup run although could not see them winning it!

Leinster, Clermont, Leicester, Toulouse, Saffacens, Toulon, Montpellier, Ulster, Saints, Edinbugh are the guys I would go for to qualify (draw permitting) although cannot see past Leinster to win it again at the moment! They have the players (not necessarily the best in every position), but more important the confidence, organisation, spirit and hunger that are essential

Hello all from a recent newish resident of Biarritz.

I also agree with most of the above but feel Biarritz have been stifled by a terrible lack of foresight pre season (from a recruitment point of view) but also by the coaching of Lagisquet. He is clearly well liked by Blanco but from what I have been told he didn't have the players respect, he talks down to them all, is hugely critical (rather than working with players he put's them down) and most importantly for me his approach doesn't fit with the Biarritz traditional style of running rugby ... Who wants to watch high ball after high ball when you have the likes of Ngwenya, Balshaw and Haylett-Petty to run at the opposition?

Our pre-season recruitment drive was inept but was compounded by the World Cup call up's however we really should have anticipated being without Yachvili, Harinordoquy, Barcella, Marconnet - not that he actually went, Ngwenya, Carizza and Bosch (with Lakafia being the unexpected addition). We played almost half the season without a recognised scrum half or fly half and pitched a couple of seven's players in at the deep end with almost no experience around them!

The squad for next year then:

Props - Synaegel,Van Staden, Broster, Gomez Kodela, Barcella and Lebrequier.
Hookers - Heguy, Genevois, Guinazu and August.
2nd row - Thion, Taele, Lund E, Dubarry and Marie.
Back row - Harinordoquy, Lakafia, Gray, Lund M, Guyot, Lauret and Molcard.
Scrum half - Yachvili, Lesgourgues and Roussarie
Fly half - Berquist and Peyreylongue
Wings - Ngwenya, Brew, Thomas.
Centre - Traille, Gimenez, Burotu
Full back - Balshaw

with Haylett-Petty, Bosch, Baby, Platon, Barraque able to cover wing, centre and full back.

It's an improvement but we are still four or five players short with the following needing more depth in my opinion - centre, full back, wing, prop and second row and ideally a back up scrum half and fly half although I feel that if Yachvili is playing we can get away with a back up fly half as he takes so much pressure off and (hopefully) likewise with an actual fly half.

Just my thoughts but this squad could get past the group stages but any further will be an achievement.

 

[TRF_Olyy]

Stoddart being considered one of the most exciting stars of NH rugby makes me feel really depressed.

 

[Peat]

Maybe I'm being waaay too optimistic after the Munster demolition, and the Ospreys will revert to type in next seasons HC...........

Almost certainly. Munster are far from the team they were.

Don't get me wrong, Ospreys are a strong side and crucially seem to have found a team ethic that works, but that wasn't a game to go basing your hopes on - just like Ulster's reaming of Leicester was somewhat of an outlier.

I'd expect Ospreys to be QFist/SFists. A final wouldn't surprise me. Victory would.

 

[welshglory]

I don't see why next year should be seen as too early tbh. An Ospreys pack of Bevngton, Hibbard, Jones, Jones, Evans, Jones, Tipuric, Bearman/Stowers is capable of overpowering all the Rabo Pro12 teams, as well as the majority of Aviva teams and many French teams. Once that's the case, the backs will take care of themselves as long as Biggar is on song (at least he always is with the boot). Beck and Dirksen provide star quality in the backs imo, even if they're not current internationals.

Maybe I'm being waaay too optimistic after the Munster demolition, and the Ospreys will revert to type in next seasons HC...........

I'd certainly put them above Edinburgh, Munster, Scarlets and Ulster (despite them reaching the final this year).

As for the Scarlets. They are probably being touted due to that backline which includes a few of the most exciting players in NH rugby, in North, Davies, Priestland and Stoddart when he returns. But the pack isn't good enough, and that counts in a long tournament like the HC where more than a couple of losses spells the end of the road.

The problem positions for next year are fullback, wing, outside centre, lock depth, we could do with another back rower as well (now that O'Toole has finally been released and Smith has gone to L Irish).

We really need to be looking at bringing in a fullback and/or wing. Fussell is not a fullback and must be played on the wing next year (i doubt it though). I haven't been that impressed by Ross Jones tbh, i feel he needs another year to develop both his game and physically. Gareth Owen could play at fullback but he's still injured, and we can't rest our hopes on him. There's no way in hell that i trust Eli Walker or Luke Morgan starting a HC cup game either.

Bishop is an inside centre who's now playing outside because Beck is outstanding. I feel we need to bring in extra cover at 13. Isaac isn't really up to it, Parker's gone and tbh there isn't really anyone else is there (i've heard Watermayer is being released, strangely...)?

We've got Evans and AWJ as our first choice locks, Gough is an excellent replacement but is old, James Goode has been released, and so we're then left with Ryan J and JT, both backrowers. We saw what use two back rowers are in the second row when we played Saracens at Wembley.

And remember that during international periods we lose almost a full team of players! To compete in Europe and in the Pro 12 we need a stronger squad

Our pack doesn't /can't overwhelm many English or French sides, we never have. Our backs lack creativity we've seen that this whole year, a weak Munster team is not a good barometer.

Go to the O's site, there's an interview with Humphries and he basically says that he'd like to recruit more but until the WRU report is published he can't so he has to look at developing from within, even though they might not be ready for pro rugby yet, such is the financial problems of regional sides.

I hope people now realise where the Scarlets are. They have been overhyped to hell, especially by Scarlets fans...cough...cough. They couldn't even beat Brive for fecks sake.

 

[Thingimubob]

Definitely agree with Peat there, while I think the O's will definitely be in the mix come the knock out stages, not sure they're quite ready to win the thing just yet. That said even though they're losing a lot of players for next season, I think they're definitely the best suited out of the Welsh regions to ride the storm with only Paul James, Shane and Bowe being big losses. With Bevington now in the frame to start regularly (something I'm excited to see) and with the like of Dirksen and Eli Walker breaking through on the wings, I think they'll give anyone a run for their money in the HC!

Definitely agree with psychic duck on whoever gets the Blues as their 'top' seeds for their pool should be very happy! With 12 key players leaving and the replacements in Robin Copeland and Campese Ma'afu hardly looking likely to salvage what is already a dodgy looking front 5 (especially at scrum time, which is looking even more grim withe departure of Gethin). Pro12 is going to be a struggle as it is, so can't help but predict a few messy scorelines if the Blues get handed a nasty group!
That said very excited to see how Jason Tovey does with experienced Welsh internationals around him, still rate him as one of the best fly half prospects in Wales, though he badly needs to establish himself as more than just a 'prospect' imo!

 

[gingergenius]

Simples.

Leinster are the best team in Europe. They're head-and-shoulders favourites.

Next you have Clermont and potentially Toulouse who are capable of matching Leinster at times.

Then you have a group of sides who should be there an there abouts:

From the Rabo: Munster, Ulster, Edinburgh, Ospreys, Scarlets.
From the Aviva: Quins, Leicester, Saracens, Northampton
From the Top 14: whichever other teams take it seriously, they'll all have good enough squads.

It would be nice if they sorted out the qualification too. Top 6 from the Rabo, top 6 from the Aviva, top 6 from the Top 14, one more from the league that produces a winner and one more from the winners of the Amlin/ best placed team to not qualify.

that would leave us with toulouse, clermont, toulon, castres, montpellier, racing; leinster, ospreys, munster, glasgow, scarlets, ulster; quins, leicester, saracens, northampton, exeter, sale. With cardiff and biarritz getting the wild-card.

That might at least make the Rabo into a non-mickey mouse league and mean the likes of Sean O'Brien and Rob Kearney have to play in more than 6 league games a season. Which might make the Heineken Cup fairer...

 

[welshglory]

I agree ginger, i think it would make the Rabo a much better league.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

top 6 from the Aviva

6 English teams? You just want that to make it easier for an English team to win the HC :L

 

[Thingimubob]

6 English teams? You just want that to make it easier for an English team to win the HC :L

Isn't it the top 6 teams from the Aviva that qualify anyway?
Do agree that on principle that qualification system could work, but runs the risk of, for example, no Italian and no Scottish teams being represented if their respective teams have bad domestic seasons, which could potentially de rail the clubs financially, and even have a knock on effect on the development of the national sides.

 

[UlsterRugby2012]

Isn't it the top 6 teams from the Aviva that qualify anyway?

Apologies I thought it was the top 4

 

[TRF_Olyy]

no Italian and no Scottish teams being represented if their respective teams have bad domestic seasons, which could potentially de rail the clubs financially, and even have a knock on effect on the development of the national sides.

While, for the reasons you stated, that's a shame - I don't think teams should be getting in on merit alone.
Look at Aironi - they were just a guaranteed 5pts for everyone in their group, bit harsh on the other groups.

 

[snoopy snoopy dog dog]

While I think Munster and Ulster aren't good enough to win the trophy outside Ireland yet, having the 2013 final in Dublin will raise their level a bit. A "home" final would be something to aim for. That said, they both have issues to address. How they react to new head coaches remains to be seen. I think Ulster may have a better team but will get let down by a dodgy flyhalf. Munster must continue rebuilding but if Rob Penney gets things right, they have awesome pedigree in Europe.

My top 10:
1. Leinster
2. Clermont Auvergne
3. Toulouse
4. Ospreys
5. Leicester
6. Ulster
7. Harlequins
8. Munster
9. Toulon
10. Northampton

The top 2 are a long way clear, Toulouse, Ospreys and Leicester aren't far away, Ulster and Harlequins are coming teams, Munster know how to win in Europe, Toulon can buy success and Northampton have regularly made the knockout stage.

 

[dullonien]

Almost certainly. Munster are far from the team they were.

Don't get me wrong, Ospreys are a strong side and crucially seem to have found a team ethic that works, but that wasn't a game to go basing your hopes on - just like Ulster's reaming of Leicester was somewhat of an outlier.

I'd expect Ospreys to be QFist/SFists. A final wouldn't surprise me. Victory would.

You're probably right. But it hasn't just been the Munster performance. Every performance bar the

Aironi game has been excellent under Steve Tandy. The talent has always been there, but the team ethos hasn't. Still, you're final line is probably correct.​

The problem positions for next year are fullback, wing, outside centre, lock depth, we could do with another back rower as well (now that O'Toole has finally been released and Smith has gone to L Irish).

We really need to be looking at bringing in a fullback and/or wing. Fussell is not a fullback and must be played on the wing next year (i doubt it though). I haven't been that impressed by Ross Jones tbh, i feel he needs another year to develop both his game and physically. Gareth Owen could play at fullback but he's still injured, and we can't rest our hopes on him. There's no way in hell that i trust Eli Walker or Luke Morgan starting a HC cup game either.

Bishop is an inside centre who's now playing outside because Beck is outstanding. I feel we need to bring in extra cover at 13. Isaac isn't really up to it, Parker's gone and tbh there isn't really anyone else is there (i've heard Watermayer is being released, strangely...)?

You talk a lot of sense here. However there is depth in the squad, as exemplified by the performances of the team when the players were away at the WC at the beginning of the season. It was the young Ospreys team that Smashed the Leinster equivalent on the opening day of the season. The likes of James King, Jo Rees, James Goode and Morgan Allen are good young players in the pack. They do need to replace some of the outgoing players though.

Fussell's form has been up and down this season. He's gone from looking like a very capable fullback, to being average at best, and now back to potentially a good fullback again. His attacking lines against Munster were very good, but his positioning is still dodgy. Agree about Tom Isaac's, he's not a centre. I feel you're being harsh on Ross Jones, who did well in one of his first Pro12 starts. You're also waay too critical of Eli Walker. He's shown glimpses of what he can do, and I think he'll be the Ospreys starting wing next season and prove you wrong.

We've got Evans and AWJ as our first choice locks, Gough is an excellent replacement but is old, James Goode has been released, and so we're then left with Ryan J and JT, both backrowers. We saw what use two back rowers are in the second row when we played Saracens at Wembley.

King and Goode are able replacements and progressing well. While Ryan and Jon Thomas are both options as you said.

And remember that during international periods we lose almost a full team of players! To compete in Europe and in the Pro 12 we need a stronger squad

The Ospreys have always done well in the Rabo12 during international periods, despite always losing a full team or more. The youngsters there are of a high calibre. Anyway, this is about HC potential, not Pro12.

Our pack doesn't /can't overwhelm many English or French sides, we never have. Our backs lack creativity we've seen that this whole year, a weak Munster team is not a good barometer.

There's been a few times when Ospreys have overwhelmed top English or French sides up front. Leicester a couple of seasons ago comes to mind. There have also been times when the pack has capitulated, such as against Munster in the q/f of the HC a few years ago. However I think overall the pack is stronger now than it has been for a while. Hollah was a good player, but had a tenancy to go missing in the big matches, I think Tipuric is already a much better player. The balance of the pack as a whole is better with Ian Evans back to enforce the second-row. This pack has proven its worth, and it will be competitive at the least against most out there, even the big English or French packs. There really isn't a pack in Europe I fear as an O's supporter!

Go to the O's site, there's an interview with Humphries and he basically says that he'd like to recruit more but until the WRU report is published he can't so he has to look at developing from within, even though they might not be ready for pro rugby yet, such is the financial problems of regional sides.

Hopefully we'll see a little recruitment in a few positions, as you've mentioned above. But the academy has supplied a steady stream of quality players for a while now if not.

I hope people now realise where the Scarlets are. They have been overhyped to hell, especially by Scarlets fans...cough...cough. They couldn't even beat Brive for fecks sake.

A little hostile, but ultimately until the Scarlets pack is bolstered at prop and lock, they will struggle against the bigger packs out there.

 

[big ginger 8]

Still as you say second row is a big problem, there will be no tighthead lock next year unless Leinster sign somebody. Thorn was immense yesterday, the guy is king at clearing out the rucks and providing quick ball. That's an area Ireland in general are really stuck for quality. The closest thing to a Thorn/Hines we have is Touhy but as he obviously grieviously insulted Deccie at some stage we'll never see him in a green shirt. I'd love to see Leinster go after Caldwell over the summer, any chance of that happening?

Damien Browne and Tom Denton are both tighthead locks.

 

[Peat]

While, for the reasons you stated, that's a shame - I don't think teams should be getting in on merit alone.
Look at Aironi - they were just a guaranteed 5pts for everyone in their group, bit harsh on the other groups.

Imo, the natural and best compromise atm would be

top 2 Irish sides
top 2 Welsh sides
the best Scottish side and best Italian side
Next best 2 P12 sides

Simultaneously insures that the tier 1 nations in Europe never go unrepresented while increasing the level of competition both the in the Heinie and the Rabble Pro. Give one of the saved slots each to the English and French, for now at least, I imagine in the (possibly near) future there will be arguments to give competition slots to teams from outside the current 6 European countries.